So far this year the ASX 200 has been staging a fairly impressive rally having moved from around 5300 points at the start of trading in January to over 5900 in early February. It has since pulled-back a touch but is still up around 10% for the year so there are plenty of reasons to be bullish about the outlook for the market for the rest of the year. However I remain cautious about the outlook for Australian shares and the global economy and maintain my view that a significant correction is not far away.
March 17th, 2015 · Greg Atkinson · 5 Comments
March 3rd, 2015 · Chris Vermeulen · No Comments
Seasoned investors understand that investments which are rocketing to new highs and all over the news will eventually fall out of favor and become a the poor performer, unwanted by market participants. So it only makes sense that the underperforming investments will some day come back to life and provide opportunity once again. I covered this unique stage analysis in great detail in another report linked below.
February 8th, 2015 · Greg Atkinson · 1 Comment
The long expected commodities sell-off is still a work in progress with many of the commodities bulls from just a year or so ago now covering their tracks by making ultra-bearish predictions. But let’s bypass the usual hype in the mainstream finance media and focus on some trends and commodity price charts to see if there are any signs the correction may be easing.
February 1st, 2015 · Greg Atkinson · 4 Comments
The recent election in Greece which resulted in the Syriza Party being swept into power has once again put the spotlight on the struggling Eurozone. In isolation, the election of a left wing anti-austerity party in Greece would appear to be no more than a nuisance for markets beyond Europe. But I believe that there is a lot more at stake than just simply a stand-off between the new Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and the ECB, IMF and EU which are collectively known as the Troika creditors.
January 16th, 2015 · Greg Atkinson · 22 Comments
This year it is going to be tougher than normal to put together a forecast for the Australian stock market simply because we are in the midst of quite a nasty commodities rout. However I been warning for while that a major correction in commodities prices would hit the market so I am going to look through the current turmoil and try to see where the ASX All Ordinaries and S&P/ASX 200 may finish up at the end of the year.
January 7th, 2015 · Greg Atkinson · 4 Comments
Overall the Australian stock market ended 2014 basically where it started which taking into account the slide in commodities prices, was actually a good outcome. However if we scratch under the surface a little and look beyond the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Index (All Ords) we can see why the market held ground in 2014 and perhaps gain an insight to what may happen in 2015.
December 18th, 2014 · Greg Atkinson · 17 Comments
According to the prevailing wisdom of the finance media and it seems most market analysts, the fall in the price of oil has not only been sudden but also unexpected. I suspect much of this has to do with a number of people trying to deflect attention away from their earlier bullish calls and it’s amazing how many market bulls have now morphed into long-term market bears. Unfortunately for them the process has not been a total success and if you look closely, you can still see their horns.
November 28th, 2014 · Chris Vermeulen · 1 Comment
Since July of 2014 the big cap stocks have continued to make new highs as investors dump more and more money into the stock market. Overall bullishness on the stock market is now at extremely high levels which typically happen before a major stock market correction and sometimes start a full blown bear market.
November 25th, 2014 · Greg Atkinson · 1 Comment
A couple weeks ago I looked at a few charts of the S&P/ASX 200 Index and outlined my view that if the financial stocks lost momentum, then this would in turn drag down the ASX 200. Well here we are a few weeks later and the financials are no longer able to offset the drag the mining stocks continue to have on the market with the ASX 200 now struggling to hold above 5300. I suspect this will be the case for the next week or so and perhaps for the rest of the year as well.
November 7th, 2014 · Greg Atkinson · 11 Comments
Over the last few weeks I have been simply watching the markets and have not even attempted to analyse the various swings and moves of the ASX All Ordinaries Index and S&P/ASX 200 Index. Just when I thought I might have been able to make sense out of what was happening, along would come news of the IMF cutting their global growth forecast, more mixed economic news out of China or recently and almost out of nowhere, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) sprung into back action and ramped up its version of Quantitative Easing (QE).
October 7th, 2014 · Chris Vermeulen · 5 Comments
If you have been paying close attention to the stock market, market internals/breadth, and bonds for the past three months, you’ve likely come to the same conclusion that I have. The US stock market is showing signs of severe weakness with the market breadth and leading indicators pointing to a sharp correction for stock prices.
September 23rd, 2014 · Greg Atkinson · 6 Comments
Currently the Australian stock market is in the midst of a correction along with markets in Europe, Asia and the U.S. How much longer this correction will last nobody can say for sure but for the Australian economy and stock market the signs are not good. Meanwhile it’s becoming clearer that the Chinese economy is struggling to maintain growth of around 7.5% and it may be that the era of stellar GDP growth in China is coming to an end.
August 25th, 2014 · Greg Atkinson · 23 Comments
Over the last 6 months despite signs the Australian economy is heading for tougher times, the Australian stock market has continued to edge higher despite the occasional minor correction along the way. Currently the S&P/ASX 200 is just above 5600 and if it’s going to make a run towards 6000 before the end of the year, then now seems the time for this to happen. But maybe stocks are poised to slip back again and around 5600 is as good as it will get for the S&P/ASX 200 for 2014?
August 5th, 2014 · Greg Atkinson · 4 Comments
It’s been a while since I’ve looked in detail at an ASX listed stock mainly because for the last year or so I have been focused on overall market trends or groups of stocks. But recently one stock – Coca-Cola Amtail (ASX:CCL) – has caught my attention and it may have the potential to provide patient investors a good return.
July 11th, 2014 · Greg Atkinson · 5 Comments
Unlike a few years ago, mining company CEO’s these days are somewhat more cautious about the outlook for commodities and have shifted from talking about the commodities super-cycle to commenting about the need to reduce operational costs and scale back investment. Yes the commodities super-cycle or boom is over despite many experts saying it would run for decades.
June 17th, 2014 · Greg Atkinson · 12 Comments
Recently there has been a lot of focus in the financial media about commodities prices with some commentators for example seemingly surprised how far the iron ore price has fallen. However on this site we have been warning that the days of high commodities prices were coming to an end, so the recent price falls have come as no surprise. In fact the Baltic Dry Index has been warning us what was likely to happen for a long time & also hinting what the stock prices for BHP & RIO were likely to do as well.
June 6th, 2014 · Greg Atkinson · 6 Comments
So far the Australian economy has held up quite strongly in 2014 and has outperformed many other developed economies since the GFC caused havoc across global markets in 2008-2009. Belatedly the Australian stock market has also shown post GFC bullish signs having rallied strongly from a low last year to up around 5500 this year. So all is going well right? Well not really, and if we scratch under the surface there are some very worrying trends which could cause years of strife for the Australian economy and the Australian stock market.
May 28th, 2014 · Greg Atkinson · 15 Comments
It’s has taken me a while to put some thoughts down about the 2104 Australian Federal Budget simply because I am suffering from budget fatigue. Maybe the rot set in when Kevin Rudd & Wayne Swan were prancing around during the GFC talking about a national economic emergency. Or perhaps it was just years of Swan delivering budgets which had little connection with reality, with himself and Ken Henry both off in some parallel universe. In any case, when Tony Abbott and Smokin’ Joe Hockey rolled out the budget emergency theme the fatigue really set in.