Although much of the commentary in the mainstream finance media conveys the impression that the Australian stock market is in the midst of unprecedented correction, the reality is as usual somewhat different. In fact, considering the rout in commodities prices it’s somewhat surprising that the ASX All Ordinaries and S&P/ASX 200 are still around the 5000 level. This suggests to me that the market is probably near a multi-year low and that despite all the pessimism, it’s unlikely to finish the year lower.
January 29th, 2016 · Greg Atkinson · 9 Comments
January 19th, 2016 · Chris Vermeulen · 2 Comments
Since mid-2014, the US stock market has been showing signs of the underlying market weakening. During the last quarter of 2015, the stock market had its first major bout of distribution selling, which confirmed our analysis that the bull market is nearly over. If you have been following my articles for a while, then you may be tired of my warnings of the bear market, which is on the verge of starting. In fact, the TSX Toronto stock exchange, US Transportation index and the Russell 2000 small-cap index have all been in bull blown bear markets for six months already.
December 22nd, 2015 · Greg Atkinson · 6 Comments
This year it looks like that at best, the Australian stock market will end at around the same level where it finished in 2014. This is certainly a surprise for those who were getting excited back when the ASX 200 was repeatedly testing 6000 during March – May. The major drags on the market have been China and commodities, both of which I have flagged as major risks for a few years.
November 19th, 2015 · Greg Atkinson · 23 Comments
As I have written before, it’s important during a stock market correction not to get influenced by sensational articles in the news media about market crashes and comparisons to past market slumps going all the way back to the 1920’s which are after all, basically irrelevant. The only thing that really concerns investors now is what will happen to the Australia stock market going forward, and the most likely outcome is that over the longer term it will trend upwards.
October 1st, 2015 · Greg Atkinson · 4 Comments
There comes a point during any major stock market correction when many investors (myself included) think about buying into leading companies whose shares have fallen during the stock market sell-off. The theory is that blue-chip stocks offer good value around the bottom of a market correction and that they will provide a healthy return to investors who are patient enough to wait for the stock market to recover.
September 3rd, 2015 · Greg Atkinson · 13 Comments
Generally when the stock market enters a phase of volatile trading days I tend to sit back and try to remain calm. Market corrections are normal and come along more frequently than we often seem the recall, but when the volatility passes a new market phase will begin. However this new market phase may not be what we are expecting or hoping for, so as investors we need to be ready to adjust to this new reality.
August 13th, 2015 · Chris Vermeulen · 4 Comments
A take on the global economy and equities markets that paints a simple and clear pictures I think. The DJIA index has recorded seven consecutive down days in a row! These 7 distribution days are a sign that many institutions are taking profits or establishing losses. As we are entering the second half of 2015, financial panic is occurring globally. Currently, this tremendous financial devastation is happening throughout the world. Stock prices are crashing in China, Europe and soon I feel the United States. Puerto Rico has now defaulted on their debts. Quantitative Easing has been masking the symptom of this endemic disease. The Greek Banks are still frozen and will continue to stay this way; however, the mainstream media is not reporting on this current situation in Greece. There is a limit on weekly withdrawals of 420 Euro per (around US $455).
July 27th, 2015 · Greg Atkinson · 9 Comments
Some years ago when I wrote that it was only a matter of time before economic growth in China slowed and commodities prices fell, the mainstream media in Australia at that time were obsessed with the commodities super cycle and the Chinese “miracle” economy. However now there is widespread acceptance that the commodities boom is over and that the Chinese economy isn’t bulletproof after all. However it now seems difficult for many to accept that as a consequence of those two realities that the Australian Economy is poised for some years limited growth…at best.
June 30th, 2015 · Greg Atkinson · 13 Comments
Well another financial year has come to an end and for the Australian stock market it has been a fairly poor FY2014-2015, but if you include dividends an average balanced stocks portfolio could have probably returned 3-4% in dividends which in the era of low interest rates is not too bad. However the reality is that the Australian stock market is under-performing markets in Japan, the US and many in Europe – not to mention Chinese stocks which surged skywards during the past year but now look like they are currently falling back to earth.
June 2nd, 2015 · Greg Atkinson · 9 Comments
On the surface it may seem that not all that much is happening in regards to ASX 200 stock prices apart from the significant bounces up and down each other day. Generally speaking the S&P/ASX 200 Index (XJO) has been trading within a fairly narrow range for around the last month, but under the surface there are some interesting stocks that are worth keeping an eye on.
May 8th, 2015 · Greg Atkinson · 20 Comments
This week we have seen the S&P/ASX 200 bounce around quite a bit, but generally speaking the trend of late has been back down towards 5600. This movement has probably surprised some investors especially those who were quite bullish just some weeks ago when the ASX 200 appeared poised to rally past the 6000 level.
April 10th, 2015 · Chris Vermeulen · 5 Comments
Everyone is looking for the holy grail of the financial market which will tell what will happen next in stocks, commodities, bonds etc… Knowing that the holy grail of trading does not exist I am going to step out on a limb and share my four month stock market forecast along with commodities and bonds.
March 17th, 2015 · Greg Atkinson · 15 Comments
So far this year the ASX 200 has been staging a fairly impressive rally having moved from around 5300 points at the start of trading in January to over 5900 in early February. It has since pulled-back a touch but is still up around 10% for the year so there are plenty of reasons to be bullish about the outlook for the market for the rest of the year. However I remain cautious about the outlook for Australian shares and the global economy and maintain my view that a significant correction is not far away.
March 3rd, 2015 · Chris Vermeulen · No Comments
Seasoned investors understand that investments which are rocketing to new highs and all over the news will eventually fall out of favor and become a the poor performer, unwanted by market participants. So it only makes sense that the underperforming investments will some day come back to life and provide opportunity once again. I covered this unique stage analysis in great detail in another report linked below.
February 8th, 2015 · Greg Atkinson · 1 Comment
The long expected commodities sell-off is still a work in progress with many of the commodities bulls from just a year or so ago now covering their tracks by making ultra-bearish predictions. But let’s bypass the usual hype in the mainstream finance media and focus on some trends and commodity price charts to see if there are any signs the correction may be easing.
February 1st, 2015 · Greg Atkinson · 16 Comments
The recent election in Greece which resulted in the Syriza Party being swept into power has once again put the spotlight on the struggling Eurozone. In isolation, the election of a left wing anti-austerity party in Greece would appear to be no more than a nuisance for markets beyond Europe. But I believe that there is a lot more at stake than just simply a stand-off between the new Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and the ECB, IMF and EU which are collectively known as the Troika creditors.