Shareswatch Australia

Australian stock market investing, ASX charts, analysis & market forecasts.

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Oil, Telstra, Macquarie & the ASX 200

June 1st, 2018 · Greg Atkinson · 10 Comments

Earlier this year there was quite a bit of excitement amongst many market watchers as the S&P/ASX 200 had settled above 6000 after a rallying from just over 5,500 in October 2017. The mainstream finance media were as usual generating click-bait content that conveyed the impression that the market was in the midst of an almost unstoppable rally. However I wasn’t convinced that the Austrlaian stock market was set to finally get back to the level it was 10 years ago and for the last few months I have been just watching the market basically go nowhere.

Precious Metals and Mining Stock Chart Paint A Clear Picture

May 1st, 2018 · Chris Vermeulen · 1 Comment

In this article, we are going to explain and show you an interesting pattern that has been slowly forming over the past year in the precious metals sector. This pattern along with our analysis point to a significant rally to start in the next 4 months for gold, silver, platinum, palladium, and miners. Before we get into the details, below, it is important for every trader to step back and look at the bigger picture. It’s way too easy to get sucked into the markets movements, become an emotional trader, start losing a few trades, and second-guessing your open positions.

Will the Australian Stock Market Rally Continue?

January 9th, 2018 · Greg Atkinson · 44 Comments

Late in 2017 I was prepared for a significant market correction and not only did this not happen, but instead the market finished the year strongly. Rather than the S&P/ASX 200 Index falling back towards 5500 it actually pushed and held above 6000 for reasons I’m not sure are based on market fundamentals.  So what happens from here?  Will the market rally keep pushing the ASX 200 higher over the next few months or will a correction bring it below 6000 again. Of course there is no way to be sure what will happen, but let me lay out some thoughts on what might happen.

U.S. Market: Are Markets setting up for an Early October Surprise?

October 3rd, 2017 · Chris Vermeulen · 23 Comments

Many analysts have recently warned that the US markets are setting up for a potentially massive correction, 40~70% some warn.  Our own analysis has shown massive market cycles that correlate with an October market correction.  Our VIX cycle analysis indicates that we should be expecting a spike in the VIX right now (within the next 3~4 days).  What does all this mean in reality for the average investor?

S&P/ASX 200 – 10 Years of Much Ado About Nothing

September 19th, 2017 · Greg Atkinson · 17 Comments

Ten years ago the Australian stock market was at an all time high with the S&P/ASX 200 Index at around 6,500. Just a few months later however the  the global financial crisis played havoc with the markets and the ASX 200 slumped to around 3000. But even during those darkest days I did not imagine that a decade later the Australian stock market would still be below 6000.  Yes the mainstream finance media might excitedly churn out eye-catching headlines every time there is a minor rally or correction, but the sobering reality is that during most of the last 10 years the Australian stock market has done very little.

U.S. Market: What Is Widespread Excessive Optimism Indicating?

August 5th, 2017 · Chris Vermeulen · 18 Comments

I implement these “seasonality” charts as they have been a great framework into all of my trading/investing technical analysis.  Seasonality charts are constructed from the past thirty years of historical data. I implement them as “contrarian indicators”.  The “extreme bullishness” is perceived as bearish and the “extreme bearishness” is perceived as bullish!

Australian Stock Market Outlook & Forecast for 2017

April 3rd, 2017 · Greg Atkinson · 61 Comments

Each year I outline how I think the Australian Stock Market might fare bearing in mind that my forecast, like all forecasts, is actually a calculated guesstimate – at best. None of us know with any certainty how the financial markets will ride out the year and it’s probably a safe assumption that anyone that implies that they do is either trying to sell you a book or website subscription. But a forecast can be a useful planning exercise even if it simply makes us think of the factors that might move the markets. So once again I will go out on a limb and add my forecast to the galaxy of other forecasts.

U.S. Market: Market Melt-up Brings Volatility to Metals

February 1st, 2017 · Chris Vermeulen · 16 Comments

Our recent analysis bases on a previous report of the potential for a further run in the US markets based on a number of technical and fundamental factors leads to the question of “what could happen with Gold and Silver”.  A broad US market rally may put some pressure on the metals markets initially, but, in our opinion, the increase in volatility and uncertainty will likely prompt more potential for upward price action in precious metals.

Trump, resources and an ASX market rally

December 20th, 2016 · Greg Atkinson · 6 Comments

The U.S. election result has thrown another Brexit event at the markets and once again the markets have done and are doing the opposite of what many experts predicted. I did not focus on the U.S, election in too much detail and expected any post election rally or sell-off to be short-lived. However just as the sky never fell when voters in the U.K. decided to leave the European Union it’s has remained in place after the surprising win by Donald Trump. The biggest surprise though is that the so called “Trump Rally” keeps on going and so far, the Australian stock market seems to be following the lead and since early November has staged a fairly strong rally also.

The Australian Stock Market is Struggling

October 31st, 2016 · Greg Atkinson · 30 Comments

Although many commentators in the finance media have found reasons to write excitedly about the Australian stock market during the last two months I have been unable to do so. Yes some ASX listed shares have risen sharply in price and profits have been there for some investors, but overall it’s been a very dull and boring few months apart from a correction that I wrote about at the end of August.

Australian Stock Market Set for a Pull-Back

August 31st, 2016 · Greg Atkinson · 24 Comments

The last couple of months have been eventful for the Australian stock market. First, for reasons unknown, it was was moved by the Brexit referendum result and then as the 2016 Australian Federal Election saga slowly unfolded the market really didn’t do much at all, even-though Malcolm Turnbull almost managed to lose all the seats Tony Abbott had won for the coalition parties in the previous election. Despite these events however the S&P/ASX has gained ground and has edged up to around the 5400-5600 range…again.

U.S. Market: Sell Off Coming!

June 17th, 2016 · Chris Vermeulen · No Comments

This “distortion” between “risk” and “return” has created a “bubble” effect in all global equity classes. I informed my subscribers to exit the SPX on November 25th, 2014 and to enter cash. Their equity risk exposure was reduced to zero. Momentum oscillators are now extremely overbought and are very clearly trending bearish.  I wait for confirmation before entering any new long SDS and long VXX positions.

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