Shareswatch Australia Blog

Over the last week the Australian stock market has taken a turn downwards pretty much inline with markets across Asia, Europe and the U.S.  Once again no mater how much the RBA talks up our economy, the fact is that Australia’s economic health depends on how our major trading partners are doing and investors are starting to get worried about the global economic outlook.

Back in the 2008/2009 when home prices in parts of Europe and the United States were tumbling there were plenty of “experts” saying Australian house prices would also come crashing down. But alas the residential property market remained fairly robust during the global financial crisis and the experts who predicted a crash in property prices were wrong.

For some time now investors and the public in general have been drip fed details of what might or might not be included in grand sounding “Australia’s Future Tax System Review”. Now that the report has been handed over to Wayne Swan and the Government it might be tempting for us to think that we will see sweeping changes to Australia’s tax system, but I am here to tell you that little will happen and here’s why.

All things considered 2009 was not a bad year for the Australian economy and certainly a good year for the Australian stock market. Now with the worst of the global financial crisis apparently behind us all should be well in 2010 correct? Well maybe, China willing, but where others see blue skies ahead for the economy I see storm clouds.

The Japanese have a saying sandome no shojiki. Roughly translated it means that ‘after getting it wrong twice you finally get it right the third time.’ Two previous Japanese administrations – Hashimoto (1996-98) and Koizumi (2001-6) – have set out to revive the economy through promises to cut government borrowing and spending.

Over the past year or so those who have questioned the science behind Anthropogenic (human-induced) Global Warming have been subjected to ridicule and harassment especially by dim witted journalists and politicians.  But the real villains in the global warming story are those who preach climate change, but do little to rescue their own carbon footprint. Why are these people not held up to ridicule I wonder?

One of the best investments an Australian investor could have made over the last 10 years would have been to buy a large chunk of BHP Billiton (ASX: BHP) stocks.  This is simply because BHP shares have outperformed gold, listed or unlisted property and most ASX listed blue chip stocks I can think of. But have BHP shares now rallied too far and what does it’s share price tell us about the demand for commodities?

It is time once again to put my ramblings, rants and ruminations for the previous 12 months under the spotlight. Did I correctly spot any stock market or economic trends or should I be standing in the corner with the dunce cap on for most of 2010?

Another year, another decade and time once again to look at our shares portfolio and perhaps review our positions. Although the global financial crisis has been tough for investors the fact is that the Australian stock market did bounce back in 2009 and if history is any guide then we are likely to see it finish higher in 2010.

Well 2009 is almost over and although stock market investors did it tough in the first quarter, overall the ASX All Ordinaries and S&P/ASX 200 posted healthy gains of around 30%. This means stocks & shares were in fact a good place to have your money over the last 12 months.

As the end of the year approaches it is time once again to contemplate how stocks may perform over the next 12 months. There are plenty of views around of course that range from the super bearish (i.e. there will be another stock market crash) to super bullish, (i.e. markets will surge to dizzying new heights) but I will steer clear of both extremes. So at the risk of being very wrong, very soon, let me now underwhelm you with my outlook for the Australian share market in 2010.

It’s time to start getting tough on Beijing. No, this is not a rant about China’s alleged lack of human rights. When China has something as evil as Abu Ghraib and Bagram we might have a right to complain. Nor am I complaining about China’s lack of something called democracy. Would China’s one child policy have survived in a democracy?

Both the ASX All Ordinaries and S&P/ASX 200 have been basically moving sideways now since September and although the market may seem to be drifting, it is actually reflecting fairly accurately the state of the Australian economy. For despite what some finance journalists seem to believe, the Australian economy will not be able to surge ahead simply because the Chinese are stimulating their domestic economy.

Some time ago I wrote that we would better served by having a Hobbit look after the Australian economy than the RBA, Treasury & Government and recent events have made this idea look particularly attractive. For at present we have the RBA raising rates, the Government spending and the Treasury appears to be unsure what is happening.

Over the last few weeks I have found it difficult to write much about the Australian economy or stock market simply because events have pretty much unfolded as I guessed they would some months ago. Despite the hype from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and some sections of the business media the fact is that the Australian stock market is still trading around 30% below the highs of 2007.

From the moment the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) concept was floated I had an uneasy feeling about it and unlike a lot of recent anti-ETS converts, I have voiced my opposition to this legislation for many, many months. Simply put, I don’t see the logic in trying to help the planet with a tax.

When it is hard to make sense of what is going on with the global economy I feel it is often best to try and remove the noise created by endless stock market reports, economic surveys, financial forecasts etc. and try and focus on facts not fiction. It also helps to put aside people’s opinions (including our own), relax and calmly assess what the data is really telling us, as opposed to trying to use this data to predict the future.

Harvey Norman is a retailer of household electrical appliances, personal computers and furniture & fittings with stores in Australia, New
Zealand, Slovenia, Ireland, Singapore and Malaysia. The company started with the opening of a single store in 1982 and was listed on the Australian stock exchange in 1987.