Shareswatch Australia

Australian stock market, share market investing, ASX charts, market analysis & economic forecasts.

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S&P/ASX 200 Index – Charts & Trading Ranges

November 25th, 2014 · Greg Atkinson · No Comments

A couple weeks ago I looked at a few charts of the S&P/ASX 200 Index and outlined my view that if the financial stocks lost momentum, then this would in turn drag down the ASX 200. Well here we are a few weeks later and the financials are no longer able to offset the drag the mining stocks continue to have on the market with the ASX 200 now struggling to hold above 5300. I suspect this will be the case for the next week or so and perhaps for the rest of the year as well.

Stock Market Volatility and Weak Global Economic Growth

November 7th, 2014 · Greg Atkinson · 8 Comments

Over the last few weeks I have been simply watching the markets and have not even attempted to analyse the various swings and moves of the ASX All Ordinaries Index and S&P/ASX 200 Index.  Just when I thought I might have been able to make sense out of what was happening, along would come news of the IMF cutting their global growth forecast, more mixed economic news out of China or recently and almost out of nowhere, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) sprung into back action and ramped up its version of Quantitative Easing (QE).

U.S. Market: Bonds – the fourth quarter trade of 2014

October 7th, 2014 · Chris Vermeulen · 5 Comments

If you have been paying close attention to the stock market, market internals/breadth, and bonds for the past three months, you’ve likely come to the same conclusion that I have. The US stock market is showing signs of severe weakness with the market breadth and leading indicators pointing to a sharp correction for stock prices.

A Drifting Economy and a Stock Market Correction

September 23rd, 2014 · Greg Atkinson · 6 Comments

Currently the Australian stock market is in the midst of a correction along with markets in Europe, Asia and the U.S.  How much longer this correction will last nobody can say for sure but for the Australian economy and stock market the signs are not good. Meanwhile it’s becoming clearer that the Chinese economy is struggling to maintain growth of around 7.5% and it may be that the era of stellar GDP growth in China is coming to an end.

S&P/ASX 200 Index (XJO) Charts Review – August 2014

August 25th, 2014 · Greg Atkinson · 16 Comments

Over the last 6 months despite signs the Australian economy is heading for tougher times, the Australian stock market has continued to edge higher despite the occasional minor correction along the way. Currently the S&P/ASX 200 is just above 5600 and if it’s going to make a run towards 6000 before the end of the year, then now seems the time for this to happen.  But maybe stocks are poised to slip back again and around 5600 is as good as it will get for the S&P/ASX 200 for 2014?

Stockwatch: Coco-Cola Amatil (CCL)

August 5th, 2014 · Greg Atkinson · 4 Comments

It’s been a while since I’ve looked in detail at an ASX listed stock mainly because for the last year or so I have been focused on overall market trends or groups of stocks. But recently one stock – Coca-Cola Amtail (ASX:CCL) – has caught my attention and it may have the potential to provide patient investors a good return.

The End of the Commodities Boom

July 11th, 2014 · Greg Atkinson · 5 Comments

Unlike a few years ago, mining company CEO’s these days are somewhat more cautious about the outlook for commodities and have shifted from talking about the commodities super-cycle to commenting about the need to reduce operational costs and scale back investment. Yes the commodities super-cycle or boom is over despite many experts saying it would run for decades.

Commodities Prices, the Baltic Dry Index, BHP Billiton & Rio Tinto

June 17th, 2014 · Greg Atkinson · 12 Comments

Recently there has been a lot of focus in the financial media about commodities prices with some commentators for example seemingly surprised how far the iron ore price has fallen. However on this site we have been warning that the days of high commodities prices were coming to an end, so the recent price falls have come as no surprise. In fact the Baltic Dry Index has been warning us what was likely to happen for a long time & also hinting what the stock prices for BHP & RIO were likely to do as well.

The Australian Economy & ASX All Ordinaries Index Review: June 2014

June 6th, 2014 · Greg Atkinson · 6 Comments

So far the Australian economy has held up quite strongly in 2014 and has outperformed many other developed economies since the GFC caused havoc across global markets in 2008-2009. Belatedly the Australian stock market has also shown post GFC bullish signs having rallied strongly from a low last year to up around 5500 this year. So all is going well right? Well not really, and if we scratch under the surface there are some very worrying trends which could cause years of strife for the Australian economy and the Australian stock market.

The 2014 Federal Budget, Smokin’ Joe & Political Chaos

May 28th, 2014 · Greg Atkinson · 15 Comments

It’s has taken me a while to put some thoughts down about the 2104 Australian Federal Budget simply because I am suffering from budget fatigue. Maybe the rot set in when Kevin Rudd & Wayne Swan were prancing around during the GFC talking about a national economic emergency. Or perhaps it was just years of Swan delivering budgets which had little connection with reality, with himself and Ken Henry both off in some parallel universe. In any case, when Tony Abbott and Smokin’ Joe Hockey rolled out the budget emergency theme the fatigue really set in.

ASX Charts Review: SPDR S&P/ASX 200 Fund (STW)

April 25th, 2014 · Greg Atkinson · 10 Comments

The Australian stock market has had me baffled for the last couples of months as have the global markets in general. Despite the global economy still showing signs of weakness and the Chinese economy clearly slowing, the ASX All Ordinaries Index & ASX 200 Index both finished yesterday above 5500. So is the Australian market poised to head towards the 6000 level or is the old saying “sell in May then go away” going to ring true this year?

US Market: SP500 ETF Trading Strategies & Plan of Attack

April 1st, 2014 · Chris Vermeulen · No Comments

Stocks have kick started this week with a 0.85% pop in price but the big question is if the market can hold up. Last week stocks repeatedly gap higher and sold off with strong volume telling us that institutions are slowing phasing out of stocks (distribution selling) unloading shares into strength and passing them onto the a average investor to be left holding bag.

ASX Market Indices Charts Review: XJO, XMM, XFJ, XNJ & XGD

March 19th, 2014 · Greg Atkinson · 21 Comments

Over the last few months the Australian stock market has moved without any real conviction and appears to have settled within a range between 5100 and 5450. There has been no clear breakout towards 6000 nor has a major correction taken the market down to what I would describe as a buying range.  At this stage it appears difficult to spot any clear trend by looking at the ASX All Ords Index and/or S&P/ASX 200 so I will go one level lower, and look at some key sector ASX Market Indices.

Short Term ASX Market Outlook & Trading Strategy Update

February 24th, 2014 · Greg Atkinson · 6 Comments

Over the last couple of weeks the Australian stock market has been on the rise with the ASX All Ordinaries & S&P/ASX 200 heading towards 5500. As a result there is now much talk about a bull market and of investors chasing yield which for me, is simply background noise. What I am really interested in is trying to understand if the market is set to keep rising or if it’s time to adopt a defensive strategy for the time being.

Australian Stock Market Outlook & Forecast for 2014

February 5th, 2014 · Greg Atkinson · 27 Comments

This year I am a little late in dusting off the crystal ball but it’s now time once again to study the tea leaves, throw some bones over my shoulder and try and forecast how the ASX All Ordinaries Index & S&P/ASX 200 Index may perform this year. Firstly let me stress, as I have done many times in the past, that none of us mere mortals have the ability to see into the future and so any stock market forecast is a calculated or semi-calculated guess.

Has a New Gold Bull Market Cycle Started?

January 20th, 2014 · Chris Vermeulen · 15 Comments

2013 was one of the worst years for gold in a generation and the strangest part of it is that this loss came during a time in what should have been a banner year for gold. When the Fed launched its QE1 and QE2 programs, gold posted huge gains but with QE3, we only had a brief rally in late 2012, it’s been all downhill form there. The price of gold over the last year highlights just how much Europe has become a powerful driver behind gold vs. the US which has historically been the main mover.

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