Shareswatch Australia

Australian stock market investing, ASX charts, analysis & market forecasts.

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Global Economics, Quantitative Easing and Equities

August 13th, 2015 · Chris Vermeulen · 4 Comments

A take on the global economy and equities markets that paints a simple and clear pictures I think. The DJIA index has recorded seven consecutive down days in a row!  These 7 distribution days are a sign that many institutions are taking profits or establishing losses. As we are entering the second half of 2015, financial panic is occurring globally. Currently, this tremendous financial devastation is happening throughout the world.  Stock prices are crashing in China, Europe and soon I feel the United States. Puerto Rico has now defaulted on their debts. Quantitative Easing has been masking the symptom of this endemic disease. The Greek Banks are still frozen and will continue to stay this way; however, the mainstream media is not reporting on this current situation in Greece. There is a limit on weekly withdrawals of 420 Euro per (around US $455).

The future’s not bright for the Australian Economy

July 27th, 2015 · Greg Atkinson · 8 Comments

Some years ago when I wrote that it was only a matter of time before economic growth in China slowed and commodities prices fell, the mainstream media in Australia at that time were obsessed with the commodities super cycle and the Chinese “miracle” economy. However now there is widespread acceptance that the commodities boom is over and that the Chinese economy isn’t bulletproof after all. However it now seems difficult for many to accept that as a consequence of those two realities that the Australian Economy is poised for some years limited growth…at best.

FY 2014-2015 ASX Charts Review

June 30th, 2015 · Greg Atkinson · 2 Comments

Well another financial year has come to an end and for the Australian stock market it has been a fairly poor FY2014-2015, but if you include dividends an average balanced stocks portfolio could have probably returned 3-4% in dividends which in the era of low interest rates is not too bad. However the reality is that the Australian stock market is under-performing markets in Japan, the US and many in Europe – not to mention Chinese stocks which surged skywards during the past year but now look like they are currently falling back to earth.

ASX Charts Review: Big Four Banks, WES & WOW & IJP

June 2nd, 2015 · Greg Atkinson · 9 Comments

On the surface it may seem that not all that much is happening in regards to ASX 200 stock prices apart from the significant bounces up and down each other day. Generally speaking the S&P/ASX 200 Index (XJO) has been trading within a fairly narrow range for around the last month, but under the surface there are some interesting stocks that are worth keeping an eye on.

The ASX 200 – On a Road to Nowhere

May 8th, 2015 · Greg Atkinson · 20 Comments

This week we have seen the S&P/ASX 200 bounce around quite a bit, but generally speaking the trend of late has been back down towards 5600. This movement has probably surprised some investors especially those who were quite bullish just some weeks ago when the ASX 200 appeared poised to rally past the 6000 level.

U.S. Market: 4 Month Forecast – Gold, Oil, Stocks & Bonds

April 10th, 2015 · Chris Vermeulen · 5 Comments

Everyone is looking for the holy grail of the financial market which will tell what will happen next in stocks, commodities, bonds etc… Knowing that the holy grail of trading does not exist I am going to step out on a limb and share my four month stock market forecast along with commodities and bonds.

Shorting the Australian Stock Market, Oil & Soft Commodities

March 17th, 2015 · Greg Atkinson · 14 Comments

So far this year the ASX 200 has been staging a fairly impressive rally having moved from around 5300 points at the start of trading in January to over 5900 in early February. It has since pulled-back a touch but is still up around 10% for the year so there are plenty of reasons to be bullish about the outlook for the market for the rest of the year. However I remain cautious about the outlook for Australian shares and the global economy and maintain my view that a significant correction is not far away.

U.S. Market: Money Will Rotate Into These Dead Investments

March 3rd, 2015 · Chris Vermeulen · No Comments

Seasoned investors understand that investments which are rocketing to new highs and all over the news will eventually fall out of favor and become a the poor performer, unwanted by market participants.  So it only makes sense that the underperforming investments will some day come back to life and provide opportunity once again. I covered this unique stage analysis in great detail in another report linked below.

Oil, Commodities & Baltic Dry Index

February 8th, 2015 · Greg Atkinson · 1 Comment

The long expected commodities sell-off is still a work in progress with many of the commodities bulls from just a year or so ago now covering their tracks by making ultra-bearish predictions. But let’s bypass the usual hype in the mainstream finance media and focus on some trends and commodity price charts to see if there are any signs the correction may be easing.

Greece versus The Troika: A Modern Greek Tragedy

February 1st, 2015 · Greg Atkinson · 16 Comments

The recent election in Greece which resulted in the Syriza Party being swept into power has once again put the spotlight on the struggling Eurozone. In isolation, the election of a left wing anti-austerity party in Greece would appear to be no more than a nuisance for markets beyond Europe. But I believe that there is a lot more at stake than just simply a stand-off between the new Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and the ECB, IMF and EU which are collectively known as the Troika creditors.

Australian Stock Market Outlook & Forecast for 2015

January 16th, 2015 · Greg Atkinson · 23 Comments

This year it is going to be tougher than normal to put together a forecast for the Australian stock market simply because we are in the midst of quite a nasty commodities rout. However I been warning for while that a major correction in commodities prices would hit the market so I am going to look through the current turmoil and try to see where the ASX All Ordinaries and S&P/ASX 200 may finish up at the end of the year.

2014 ASX Stock Market Charts Review

January 7th, 2015 · Greg Atkinson · 4 Comments

Overall the Australian stock market ended 2014 basically where it started which taking into account the slide in commodities prices, was actually a good outcome. However if we scratch under the surface a little and look beyond the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Index (All Ords) we can see why the market held ground in 2014 and perhaps gain an insight to what may happen in 2015.

Oil, the Baltic Dry Index and Copper

December 18th, 2014 · Greg Atkinson · 17 Comments

According to the prevailing wisdom of the finance media and it seems most market analysts, the fall in the price of oil has not only been sudden but also unexpected. I suspect much of this has to do with a number of people trying to deflect attention away from their earlier bullish calls and it’s amazing how many market bulls have now morphed into long-term market bears. Unfortunately for them the process has not been a total success and if you look closely, you can still see their horns.

U.S. Market: The Big, Bold and Ugly

November 28th, 2014 · Chris Vermeulen · 1 Comment

Since July of 2014 the big cap stocks have continued to make new highs as investors dump more and more money into the stock market. Overall bullishness on the stock market is now at extremely high levels which typically happen before a major stock market correction and sometimes start a full blown bear market.

S&P/ASX 200 Index – Charts & Trading Ranges

November 25th, 2014 · Greg Atkinson · 1 Comment

A couple weeks ago I looked at a few charts of the S&P/ASX 200 Index and outlined my view that if the financial stocks lost momentum, then this would in turn drag down the ASX 200. Well here we are a few weeks later and the financials are no longer able to offset the drag the mining stocks continue to have on the market with the ASX 200 now struggling to hold above 5300. I suspect this will be the case for the next week or so and perhaps for the rest of the year as well.

Stock Market Volatility and Weak Global Economic Growth

November 7th, 2014 · Greg Atkinson · 11 Comments

Over the last few weeks I have been simply watching the markets and have not even attempted to analyse the various swings and moves of the ASX All Ordinaries Index and S&P/ASX 200 Index.  Just when I thought I might have been able to make sense out of what was happening, along would come news of the IMF cutting their global growth forecast, more mixed economic news out of China or recently and almost out of nowhere, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) sprung into back action and ramped up its version of Quantitative Easing (QE).

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