Shareswatch Australia

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• 201 Ned S // Oct 18, 2011 at 12:21 pm

  Yes Greg. Interesting link Shoes put up on the other thread. Draws a lot of my thoughts together for me:

  http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/property/property-values-sliding-says-bill-moss/story-fn9656lz-1226169144054

• 202 Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype // Oct 18, 2011 at 4:53 pm

  Err excuse me Biker Pete but do you even own any rental property or have any experience in being a landlord?

  In comment #39 on this link:
  http://www.shareswatch.com.au/blog/stockmarket/the-australian-economy-house-prices-and-economic-outlook/all-comments/#comments you say

  “Newsflash: Rental is situation crazy, Ned. Prospective tenant has not only accepted our increased rent, paying us three months’ rent in advance; but has just UPPED the rent by another $5 per week! References all check out.”

  So lets just check if I have this correct you have a tenant that is prepared to pay you 13 weeks rent in advance because that is what the market forces in the WA rental market is?

  Why else would he pay 13 weeks rent why not 6 or 8 or 10.

  FYI 13 weeks rent at the Perth median rent is $5,200 and he has upped the rent $5 pw to boot. No doubt you have snagged one of those crazy rich miners we have in WA that I keep hearing about.
  (Now you must name the suburb that has that much demand that people are willing to pay 13 week in advance $5 pw extra just to secure a house to live in)

  Do you even to bother reading back some of your posts to see if they have any believability. ?

  Now here is the thing that has me really confused & no doubt you can clear it up.

  The WA consumer affairs dept has some laws that prohibit landlords from doing exactly this. Here is what they say about paying rents in advance:

  ” Paying rent….A landlord must not ask for more than two weeks’ rent in advance before or during the first fortnight of a tenancy. After that, the agreement can provide for rent payments on a weekly, fortnightly, four-weekly or calendar-month basis or any other period as agreed by you and the landlord.” ….”The landlord must not ask for rent until the period covered by the previous payment is finished.”

  (Link of course: http://www.commerce.wa.gov.au/consumerprotection/content/Property_renting/Renting_and_tenancy/Tenants/Bonds_and_rent.html)

  Now you are on record as saying you use Agents to manage your houses, well these agents have to abide by WA consumer laws, so I would be interested in how you managed to get 13 weeks rent in advance?

• 203 Biker // Oct 18, 2011 at 5:29 pm

  NF: “So lets just check if I have this correct you have a tenant that is prepared to pay you 13 weeks rent in advance because that is what the market forces in the WA rental market is? Why else would HE* pay 13 weeks rent why not 6 or 8 or 10.”

  On many occasions when we have multiple applications for our excellent rentals (sometimes even queues) a family which _really_ wants the property will offer payments three or even four months_ in advance. In the most recent example, we believe the (successful) applicant believed we would probably decline HER*, as we do some other applicants.

  SHE* had an excellent rental reference, but was/is unemployed.
  Apparently SHE* put up a very good case, with unemployment payments, rental assistance, very large alimony payments and a substantial bank balance. SHE* suggested the three months’ payment in advance and SHE* suggested increased rent after six months.

  This is now the third such case we’ve experienced. On no occasion has _either_ of our realtors ever suggested this incentive. They don’t _need_ to offer any such incentives.
  Both our suburbs have vacancy rates below 1%… and no,
  we won’t disclose them. For two years, we’ve advised _many_ respondents to give you no location whatsoever, for very good reason.

  Your inexperience in WA property, combined with your own (doomed) agenda and bias, makes these cases unbelievable… hardly surprising since you advocate offering landlords far below their asking price(!) Your own tendency to disbelieve others is probably based on your own propensity to lie continually. You seem quite comfortable with this handicap.
  You may need to discuss this with a professional counsellor.

  * Your assumption that this was a male applicant could be expected, NF. Wrong assumptions are your stock-in-trade… .

• 204 Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype // Oct 18, 2011 at 6:59 pm

  Sorry Biker nobody in Perth needs to pay 13 weeks in advance.

  You have ZERO Cred. No Realtor would touch any deal like this as it is in breach of WA consumer laws

  http://www.commerce.wa.gov.au/consumerprotection/content/Property_renting/Renting_and_tenancy/Tenants/Bonds_and_rent.html

  Make up whatever stories you like.

  Proofof this is your pathetic attempt to divert attention by focusing on the “HE” in this comment

  “Why else would *** he *** pay 13 weeks rent why not 6 or 8 or 10.”

  Really that is what is important in the discussion? Just proves you are clutching at straws.

  Caught tell a untruth, making up stories about tenants throwing money at you.

  Why would a tenant with good references do this , they would not & don’t

  Name the suburb (Or I cant do that you will identify me excuse?) Well name any suburb.

  Guess what genius. In Port Hedland / Karratha / Dampier where there are 12 -- 18 month waiting lists this does not happen, so what you say is quite simply not a truth that you are able to substantiate.

  Step away from the shovel Biker you are just digging a deeper hole.

  BTW Ned do you believe this fanciful story.

• 205 Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype // Oct 18, 2011 at 7:27 pm

  Biker ” You’re an unqualified Brit with six years’ residence here, compared to my 64… yet you’re expert in WA property? Amazing! ”

  Bzzz Wrong born & raised WA.

  Lets see other things you got wrong errr “ANDY” Wrong … err “Melbourne Money Man” wrong …. errr “PUNTER” Wrong …. errr “Dullsville” Wrong

  You quote me saying:
  ” as interest rates rise this year investors will offload at any cost & buyers will be priced out as they fail to qualify for loans”

  but only quote a small part & take it out of context, this is what I said in full:

  “Australia may have their property dream unfortunately the reality is they can no longer afford it… 1980 -- 2010 Australian wages went up 5 times from $12.5k to $62K whilst Australian house prices went up 12.5 times from $40K to $500k. It cant keep doing this, the gap between wages & price cant keep expanding it has reached its limit it is that simple. Now show me any bank that will lend someone on a single income of $62K with the average 2 dependants $450K (Median price less 10% deposit) in 1980 they could do it on a single income today the bank would require two incomes to borrow the $450K. The Math will not work out for investors either as rental yield have also failed to keep up. With fewer buyers able to afford the inflated prices the chances of property prices rising in the future, like they have in the past are extremely slim & seeing investment in property is ONLY based on capital gains fewer investors are buying in this market further eroding the demand for property at these over inflated prices & as interest rates rise this year investors will offload at any cost & buyers will be priced out as they fail to qualify for loans.”

  This was June 2011 & the week before the RBA was warning of likely rate rises in interest rates later in the year, so it is quite valid to make the comment I made based on RBA warnings.
  (Keep clutching at straws it is showing your desperation)

  Keep digging a deeper hole champ you wil get there one day!!

  Tee Hee Hee

• 206 Biker // Oct 18, 2011 at 8:16 pm

  OK, you’ve had time to recover from that whack with my shovel. Next failed interest rise punt:

  “Now 2 years have lapsed & all these loans are going to revert to a 7.1% or 7.8% rate… They can ALL look forward to extra payments around $9000 PA.” Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype Perth -- February 12, 2011, Domain.
  http://theage.domain.com.au/blogs/talking-property/buyers-and-sellers-test-the-breeze-20110208-1akec.html?comments=72&comments=72

  In fact, fixed rates have fallen to 6.29%… and it’s likely they’ll fall further.

  Your problem? Scaremongers NEED to make all these silly predictions to hype up fear. You’ll keep making them, because you get off on being the 200,000-hit/slap/kick property guru. It didn’t work for Steven Keen (who is educated) and it can’t possibly work for a bumpkin like you. OK, answer that one with some feeble crack (blame the RBA again, perhaps) and we’ll get to your next brilliant interest rate spruik!~

• 207 Greg Atkinson // Oct 18, 2011 at 9:17 pm

  Please refer to the discussion forum moderation policy: http://www.shareswatch.com.au/blog/discussion-forum/

  I will be deleting comments accordingly when I have time.

• 208 Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype // Oct 18, 2011 at 10:34 pm

  Greg it is disappointing he engages in personal attacks rather than addressing the issues raised in a cohesive way.

  Ummmm Biker notice the Date? Feb 2011

  RBA raised rates nov 2010 Banks doubled the rise.

  E*V*E*R*Y*O*N*E* was saying that the RBA would raise rates at least another 2 times in 2011.

  It is perfectly legitimate in Feb 2011 to make the statement I did with the data available at the time.

  It is so easy to be a critic with the benefit of hindsight, you never take a position on anything so can never be wrong? Is that your secret.
  “Now 2 years have lapsed & all these loans are going to revert to a 7.1% or 7.8% rate… They can ALL look forward to extra payments around $9000 PA.” Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype Perth – February 12, 2011,

  So lets see someone coming off rates that were fixed in 2009 @ 5% would be paying around 7.5% in Feb 2011 & with the average loan around an increase of $9,000 pa on a typical loan of $400K.

  Now where am I wrong about this it is a accurate view of events in Feb 2011. Failed interest rate punt? Where I don’t see any Punt just a accurate assessment of facts.

  Whack with your shovel? Oh please I don’t think so. All you have done is dig a deeper hole. I told you you were just digging a deeper hole & to stand back from the shovel but would you listen?

• 209 Biker // Oct 19, 2011 at 8:01 am

  Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype, Comment 158:

  “Would love to see a link where I said interest rates would rise as I did not.”

  The beat goes on.

  NF: “Forget about a fixed rate at 7% for 2-3-5 years…”
  HaHa, you’re not wrong. Try 6.29% for three years instead… !

  http://www.perthnow.com.au/business/local-property-players-build-portfoilios/comments-e6frg2ru-1226080466625

• 210 Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype // Oct 19, 2011 at 9:54 am

  Sorry again Greg.

  Biker your comprehension skills are letting you down again. You are embarrassing yourself, I am beginning to feel pity for you & cannot help but wonder if I am having a debate with somebody that is intellectuality handicapped?

  I asked you to show where I made a forecast for interest rates, several times you have put up things which clearly show I am commenting about market conditions & referring to predictions made by other commentators. Then you attribute their predictions to me ?

  Your latest (Comment #212 ) again fails to show me making a prediction rather a accurate observation.

  It’s is there in full for the reader to see & affirm for themselves that you are trying to twist what was actually said.

  Why only post this small snippet “Forget about a fixed rate at 7% for 2-3-5 years…” ????

  Tell you what have a go at disproving my premis that a 7% interest rate today is comparable to paying a 22.5% rate in 1990.

  I will take your silence or failure to disprove or refute it as your affirmation that it is 100% accurate.

  “Property Spruikers will tell you Australia is OK we dont have a sub prime system? …. Forget about a fixed rate at 7% for 2-3-5 years because a 7% interest rate today is E_Q_U_A_L to a 22.5% Rate in 1990 ……The 1990 Median house price was $100K with a 20% deposit & a loan of $80K payments @17% interest over 30 yrs would be $1140 pm or 32% of wages with average family wage of $42K pa…so in 1990 @ 17% the worst interest rates in Aust history payments only ever got to 32% of average family income…Fast Fwd to 2010 Median price is $500K less 20% deposit & a loan of $400K payments @ 7% interest over 30 years are $2661 pm or 43% of wages with average family wage of $75K…in 2008 interest rates were 9.5% this would work out to payments of $3365 or 54% of current wages …. Now historically for the last 30 years interest rates have averaged 10.11% this would works out to payments of $3545 pm or 57% of wages going to mortgage payments ….So summing up current housing mortgage payments @ 7% is still worse than when rates were at 17% but just imagine what will happen when rates rise? AFFORDABILITY will not allow future CAPITAL GROWTH… & without this SPECULATORS are FLEEING Houses!!”

• 211 Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype // Oct 19, 2011 at 9:59 am

  Biker

  You say 6.29% fixed for three years? Where Link please?

• 212 Biker // Oct 19, 2011 at 10:06 am

  Four indicators so far that you expected interest rates to rise in 2011, Nut Fool… and lied about it. *Tsk* *Tsk*

  7% interest = 22.5%? Wonderful Mathematics! Did you elect to study Alchemy, Scientology and Nutfoolery instead?

  “TEE HEE HEE” (Is that a quote from a Miss America contestant?)

• 213 Biker // Oct 19, 2011 at 10:11 am

  NF: “You say 6.29% fixed for three years? Where Link please?”

  Here link. Happy to help you apply, to add to your six investment properties in Karratha, Woodvale and Mandurah, NF.

  Apply here:

  http://ratedoctor1-px.rtrk.com.au/

• 214 Greg Atkinson // Oct 19, 2011 at 11:49 am

  Okay, this is just turning into a slanging match. This site is not for two people to enter into an endless debate. It is also not a site dedicated to the WA property market. So I am calling time out.

• 215 Biker // Oct 19, 2011 at 12:15 pm

  I’ve sometimes wondered why property even features on a Shareswatch site, Greg. Yes, I accept that over 90% of posts are property-related, so that helps the numbers/advertising aspects, but the negativism generated may not be worth the small amount of income derived. Property is a highly-emotive topic. We probably have Keen, Karan and Emerson to thank for that…

  And this kind of negativism doesn’t help at all:

  “There’s no buyers. There’s no demand. The economy is just not strong enough, and in which case we could go back to test some horrible lows.” Are they talking about the property market? NOPE, the share market: http://www.perthnow.com.au/business/business-old/market-to-track-sideways-for-six-months/story-e6frg2qu-1226074127886

  I enjoy ‘debating’ property with a bear whose stated goal for two years has been to *POP* the WA market. I’ve attempted to do that in a light, breezy manner. After all, as Michael J Fox notes in his delightful book ‘A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Future’:

  “Be kind to very negative people. They’re in pain.”

  Happy for you to delete anything which doesn’t comply with policy, as usual… .

• 216 Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype // Oct 19, 2011 at 1:39 pm

  Sorry Biker but the link to loan doctor did not show a 6.29% fixed 3 year loan but a variable loan.

  Further more it was not a “Comparison” rate which is what you need to look at. This would make the loan closer to 6.92%

• 217 Biker Pete // Oct 19, 2011 at 1:49 pm

  My apologies, NF. Perhaps 6.19% for three years, instead?

  http://www.infochoice.com.au/institutions/SuperRate/697

• 218 Greg Atkinson // Oct 19, 2011 at 2:03 pm

  Maybe Biker it’s because property related stocks trade on the ASX and that this site covers thee big picture as well. That’s why I track commodities prices, the BDI, GDP etc. Also the stock market is impacted by what happens in the property market so it would be a bit silly for me not to pay attention what is happening out there.

• 219 Biker // Oct 19, 2011 at 2:07 pm

  “A quick check of this shows that the rate is in fact 6.73%.”

  Still better than the 7.1 -- 7.8% you based your $9K extra a year in 2011 on, NF. But yes, it does look like you’ll miss out on that seventh WA property…. .

  I’d wait-a-bit. Fella I know says the Big Crash will hit on 6th December 2011!

• 220 Biker // Oct 19, 2011 at 2:11 pm

  Greg: “…it would be a bit silly for me not to pay attention what is happening out there…”

  Yes, I guess that’s so. If you visit the many sites which analyse property, you’ll hear far worse vitriol from the Property Bears. On a positive front, the New Improved NF is a great advance on the cussin’, rantin’ bloke on those sites!~

• 221 Ned S // Oct 20, 2011 at 2:52 am

  Vacancy rates are 2% in each of the Brisbane suburbs I’m invested in. Ditto for another suburb I’m considering:

  http://sqmresearch.com.au/graph_vacancy.php?t=1

  No big hurry though. Returns are still considerably lower than I can get from cash in bank.

• 222 Biker // Oct 20, 2011 at 11:25 am

  Certainly a real shortage of rentals here, too, Ned.

  Interest? We’re getting 6.25% online with ANZ. Just switched all our cash to my name. Now I’m retired that makes sense, until the Missus pulls the pin. It’s extraordinary that we’re getting six times the return on cash that Canadians are.

  In WA, property has still outperformed interest for us this year.
  That sale in late March was definitely a major win. It’s only one example of a buy during the GFC returning high capital gain, but it does show (us, anyway) that even in very flat periods it’s possible to turn a great profit… . Land 16.4% pa, against interest 6.25% pa.

  We see our accountant a week Friday. This is the first financial year in which we’ll be able to see if the (new) tweaks we’ve applied really are the best we can do. My list of Key Questions has grown as the year has passed, so it will be interesting to get an update.

• 223 Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype // Oct 20, 2011 at 12:14 pm

  Shortage of Rentals?

  People feel comfortable investing in housing with a belief that Housing Shortages are going to keep prices up & stop prices crashing?

  This AUST GOVT report { http://www.infrastructure.gov.au/infrastructure/mcu/soac_files/INFRA_1211_MCU_SAC2011.pdf } … says the following on page #3.. “ Australia’s population has grown by three million in the past decade.” … so what you say? … Well in Australia we build over 140,000 homes every year & this works out to 1,400,000 homes. Now Australian Census data in 2006 said there are 2.6 people per household &this number is on the increase due to the high cost of housing kids are staying at home longer. Again you might be wondering so what? … Well in the past 10 years we had a population growth of 3 million but we built enough housing to house 3,640,000 !!! That’s 246,000 houses more than population demand required us to build. That’s for the whole of Australia.

  In WA our population increased by 330,000 in the last 10 years yet we built enough houses (220,000 plus) to house 572,000 people. It is difficult to see why there would be any shortage.

  Rents in WA have failed to keep pace with the rise in house prices which would indicate no real shortage.

• 224 Greg Atkinson // Oct 20, 2011 at 2:54 pm

  If the Chinese economy continues to cool and iron ore prices slide further then home prices in Australia will most likely move sideways or slip further back over the next few years I reckon.

  The Government has already factored a continued mining boom into its planning and at the moment the boom is starting to look a touch wobbly. Non mining related company tax revenues have already been hit and if the expected record high royalties from mining don’t roll in over the next few years then you can count on a government of any flavour making some spending cuts.

  So in that case we will would up with all major export sectors in the doldrums (education and tourism are already there) plus be a cycle where government spending is also being cut back.

  If that happens then I can’t see how/why home prices nationwide would rise.

  I am not suggesting there will be a crash, I am just making a few observations based on what is happening across the wider economy.

• 225 Biker // Oct 20, 2011 at 3:32 pm

  China slipping? China (almost) met its _own_ reduced growth target of 9.0%… with a 9.1% rate achieved. Reining in inflation, reducing the massive growth in wages and therefore production costs, are aligned goals. China is still calling the shots… .

  “…a cycle where government spending is also being cut back…” The reverse is likely. Most governments still favour… and apply… the Keynsian model…. ‘spend the crisis out of trouble’

  Keen was right about (just one) thing. In such an event, the interest rate would fall, perhaps as low as 0%. At that point,
  those with cash and significant equity would jump into the breech, buying property with all four hands!~
  (Look at BC’s ‘V’ cities… .)

  As suggested in the past, flexibility seems to be the way-to-go in times like these. All our best buys in recent years have been on the first day of someone else’s declined finance. That block we sold earlier this year had been on _one year’s_ hold for a Brit who finally admitted he couldn’t buy it. A (disgusted) developer sold it to us for a song… . A better example was the duplex block with _absolute_ beach frontage which, again, appeared on the market for less than 24 hours. We trebled our gain quickly on that one.

  Just as there will be incredible buys in individual stocks right now, there will be properties on the market, fleetingly, which represent amazing value and a quick return. Those waiting for ludicrous 50% crashes and sitting on their hands are unlikely to find or access these gems.

• 226 Greg Atkinson // Oct 20, 2011 at 4:21 pm

  Amazing isn’t it…a centrally planned command economy reports that it has met it’s objectives. The USSR also use to meet most of their economic targets as well..that is sort of how command tend economies work Biker.

• 227 Biker // Oct 20, 2011 at 4:55 pm

  Comparison with the USSR isn’t exactly appropriate, as you know, Greg. Did Russia even get close to the economic miracle which is modern China?

  I read all the anti-China media reports, usually with a grin. Take Avner Mandelman’s recent item in the Globe & Mail (8th October 2011) on “Chinas slowly crumbling economy”, which totally ignored China’s gradual, successful conversion to a domestic economy. To Canada’s south, meanwhile, a culture of huge pick-ups survives on 90c/litre gasoline, almost totally oblivious to future fuel prices, driving on some of the worst roads we’ve ever driven, at speeds up to 75mph. China will be producing the majority of the world’s EVs long before the US even considers the economic devastation of $6/gal petrol….

  We drove through many kilometres of desolate housing developments in some states… wastelands where $4/gal fuel had made it uneconomic to even _bother_ to drive to work. Infrastructure is crumbling, particularly in those states which are in economic crisis, or where it’s not deemed worthwhile to upgrade, because there are other more pressing priorities.

  If we’re going to compare, let’s forget comparison between China and Russia. Let’s compare the future-building of China to the future-crisis which faces the US, as its systems crumble; due to its past unwillingness to regulate, _control_ and punish those criminal traitors who pushed the US into this morass…

• 228 Greg Atkinson // Oct 27, 2011 at 7:35 am

  Well according to an article in The Australian today house prices appear on the way down in all major capital cities with the exception of Canberra. An extract from the article is posted below.

  Median prices have plummeted by 6.7 per cent in 12 months.

  The national median home price has now fallen for five successive quarters, marking an even worse stretch than during the global financial crisis in 2008, according to Australian Property Monitors’ gloomy report on the September quarter.

  Brisbane has gone from boom to gloom, reversing years of steep growth in its property market to lead the downturn with a 2.7 per cent decline in the quarter.

  APM senior economist Andrew Wilson said market confidence had been battered, with global economic turmoil fomenting fears of job insecurity in Australia.

  Source: Brisbane wins housing race to the bottom

• 229 Biker // Oct 27, 2011 at 9:17 am

  Greg: “Median prices have plummeted by 6.7 per cent in 12 months.”

  Less than half of shares.

  And rents are up as much as 10% here.

  A fall in residential construction has meant really great deals on solar hot water systems. Manufacturers and importers have been stuck with excess units. We’ve saved thousands, replacing conventional units… .

• 230 Biker // Oct 28, 2011 at 8:05 am

  New definition for ‘housing stress’?

  “And renters are most at risk, with 26 per cent in housing stress.”

  http://www.news.com.au/money/property/housing-stress-pms-struggles-to-find-a-rental-property/story-e6frfmd0-1226179004217

• 231 Biker // Dec 4, 2011 at 12:01 am

  And how _are_ your patients coming along, Dr Atkinson?

• 232 Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype // Dec 4, 2011 at 8:02 am

  Sorry Biker never happened.

  Not even in WA’s North West where there is an acute shortage of decent rentals do people need to pay 1 year in advance.

  When you make up Fairy Tails think about the details. Why would the Tenant just not park the years rent in a savings account, what did he get in return for paying a year in advance?

  Anyone keep score mark ZERO in the creditability column. Even funnier 10% growth PA or Rents doubling every 10 years. Come on Biker you must have thought this one through how much will wages rise to 3% 4% can’t be 5% because the RBA will put its foot down so your saying people will be able to earn the money from where to pay you the rent.

  Follow this SPRUIKER at your own peril.

  Tee Hee Hee nothing to see here folks a Mum & Dad investor sorry speculator out of his depth. Now tell the readers the 6.55% tax free yield you earn in a mortgage offset account. I don’t understand it & neither does anybody else. keep typing champ take goo aim at the foot.

• 233 Biker // Dec 4, 2011 at 8:56 am

  It amuses us that you see ‘Mum & Dad Investor’ as a slur, Nut Fool. It is _exactly_ what we are. We have agreed we are, several times. Why do you imagine you’re _insulting_ us with this perception?

  Your inability to see _why_ tenants make us very special offers, continually, illustrates your total lack of knowledge about:

  * Private rentals (as opposed to government housing);

  * What _we_ actually offer tenants. Yes, our rentals are better than nearly anything else on the market in a sensible price range. When we attempt to buy more, we find that we can design and build far superior _rentals_ for far less than asking price.

  * How much appeal our lovely homes have to interstate and overseas arrivals, stuck in a rental queue, with so little that is exceptional on offer.

  Over on PerthNow, you challenged our statement about rentals, asking how we ‘outperform’ the market. Let me first agree that we _DO_ outperform the general market. Second, we do not build anything we would not enjoy living in ourselves. Third, our rentals come with additional climatic and cost-saving (for tenants) initiatives. Fourth, our homes _look_ good. Tenants feel proud of living not only in attractively presented homes, but in very desirable locations. Fifth, there’s around a 1% vacancy-rate in our two key suburbs. The unemployment rate is probably lower. Sixth, we respond immediately to virtually every tenant request or concern. Seventh, we do not raise rents within a period of tenancy, unless we are very unhappy with a tenant. We have a reputation for fair dealing in the communities in which we build.

  Now let’s look at _you_:

  * You quote rental regulations without understanding them.
  So while you state: “…the agreement can provide for rent payments on a weekly, fortnightly, four-weekly or calendar-month basis OR ANY OTHER PERIOD as agreed by you and the landlord…” you don’t understand that last clause at all.
  Worse, you assume others don’t.

  * You’ve made outlandish claims about owning six properties, but elsewhere state that you ‘wouldn’t want to be a landlord’.
  Don’t you see how illogical and utterly opposed these two statements are? It marks YOU as the liar here.

  * You have continually made extreme predictions, many of them ‘dated by post’ about dire events and consequences. As these predictions eventually fail, you prevaricate… deny… demand links… then change the subject… . In two days we’ll see yet another foolism crash back to earth… .

  * You seem obsessed with ‘scores’ and ‘winning’. Several of your posts announce yourself as the winner. Winners don’t need to do that, son. (Nor do they need to crawl to web hosts.)

  “Tee Hee Hee? Fairy TAILS?” What are you trying to tell us?

• 234 Plornt // Dec 4, 2011 at 11:35 am

  NF i’d have to unfortunately and reluctantly agree with Biker, you have unintentionally misread part the clause or paraphrased version of the relevant act or regulations . He is allowed to accept one year payments.

• 235 Ned S // Dec 4, 2011 at 3:25 pm

  Had a slightly strange one myself recently -- Tenant has paid up to about 8 January. Namely about 3 weeks ahead of even the 2 weeks ahead that a good tenant tries to be. Don’t know why. And aren’t especially curious enough to ask.

  People do strangish things on occasion -- Though often for what they feel is a good reason. Paying a year’s rent ahead just could sound like a good idea to some if one is in a divorce situation and attempting to hide money from an ex maybe? Just as one “for instance”.

• 236 Stillgotshoeson // Dec 4, 2011 at 3:44 pm

  Whenever I go overseas I pay my rent in advance to cover the time I am gone + 1 month so I do not have to worry about it whilst gone or on my return, your tenant, Ned maybe just doing the same, covering him/her self over the christmas period.

• 237 Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype // Dec 4, 2011 at 4:24 pm

  Biker

  Name the fantasy suburb where rents will rise by 10% PA & where you claim people are compelled to pay 1 years rent in advance.

  Don’t hide behind the lame excuse that you don’t want to be identified, you have known I live in Woodvale for 2 years now & it makes little difference even with Dogman having access to RP Data & Mortgage data from the banking sector (ING Bank).

  How hard would it be how many loans would ING have in Woodvale. Point is no one can find out you just hide behind a lame excuse so you are not accountable.

  Not much to see here folks just a Confused Mum & Dad investor who thinks / claims he earns 6.55% Tax Free on funds he has in a mortgage offset account.

• 238 Ned S // Dec 4, 2011 at 5:02 pm

  “Whenever I go overseas I pay my rent in advance to cover the time I am gone + 1 month … your tenant, Ned maybe just doing the same”

  Quite possible Shoes. I did exactly the same re paying all my bills ahead the last time I went overseas for three months. (Good thing too -- The bloody apartment that was rented for me didn’t even have a phone line let alone an internet connection -- Despite assurances it would have both!)

  Success in life: A combination of knowing Murphy’s Law and The Boy Scouts motto perhaps?

• 239 Biker // Dec 4, 2011 at 6:25 pm

  You get no location(s) whatsoever from me, NF.

  I have continually advised every contributor to three forums to give you NO leads to their whereabouts, whatsoever.

  I’ve long suspected your own location to be provided by Her Majesty. Your talent for moving so easily between lies speaks of recidivism. You change your story like a suspect in an interview room. You have _far_ more time-on-your-hands than any of us, posting up to six consecutive l-o-n-g manifestos to a thread.

  Why else would you tell us you’re a Homeswest tenant on the dole who spends all his welfare provision on booze? Link?
  http://www.perthnow.com.au/business/local-property-players-build-portfoilios/story-e6frg2ru-1226080466625 (Comment # 39)
  I suspect the real story is likely to be far worse.

  Name the locations where rents are now rising over 10% pa?
  Happy to do so. Here’s a very recent direct quote:

  “Perth houses up 10.1 per cent… unit rents are up 8.4 per cent and 6.8 per cent over the year… The common denominator across Sydney, Brisbane and Perth’s strong rental conditions is that new housing supply has been insufficient relative to population growth… In Western Australia new dwelling starts have been 13 per cent below average.”

  You want the link? Have you figured out yet how to find it yourself?

• 240 Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype // Dec 4, 2011 at 6:32 pm

  Biker Link Please Yes

  In WA new starts are down 30% plus for a reason. No DEMAND!

  REIWA rents Dec 2008 $380 Perth Median Sept qtr $395.

  You do the Math.

• 241 Biker // Dec 4, 2011 at 6:34 pm

  What an interesting response to my assertions.

• 242 Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype // Dec 4, 2011 at 7:11 pm

  Biker wrong again

  Rental supply is only down because smart investors (Not you) are selling & have taken stocks out the rental pool. To compound this new arrivals are choosing not to catch a falling knife by buying into a overinflated market that they know will fall, instead they are choosing to wait & rent lowering the vacancy rate in the Perth market.

  Post Christmas/ New Year will be interesting as investors either slash prices to get their sale or flood the market with their rentals they cant sell.

• 243 Stillgotshoeson // Dec 4, 2011 at 7:30 pm

  I have not bothered to look, however Travs/Biker has given plenty of clues to at least be able to narrow down the likely suburbs.

  Land Available (likes to build)
  Rental Vacancy Rate 1% or lower
  Prices around $350k to $450k level

  I would take a guess that many of the suburbs have 2 of 3 of the above attributes, all 3 would narrow the rang down somewhat.

  He has also given clues to his identity as well… those I won’t put here.

• 244 Biker // Dec 4, 2011 at 9:35 pm

  Why wait until Post Christmas / New Year for a result, N F?

  You forecast a major crash by _next Tuesday,_ 6th December 2011.

  Let me guess: false pretences, fraud, embezzlement…
  or murdering the English language?!~

• 245 Biker // Dec 4, 2011 at 10:12 pm

  Shoes:

  “Land Available (likes to build)
  Rental Vacancy Rate 1% or lower
  Prices around $350k to $450k level”

  You’ll have to give him _much_ more than that, Shoes!~

  This is a fella who, given a 56-word quote, can’t figure out how to find its source… .

  In a post (243) fraught with contradictions, look at his closing argument: “…investors either slash prices to get their sale or flood the market with their rentals they cant sell…”

  It’s a common mistake. Attempt to correlate sharetrading theory (intangibles) to property investment (tangibles). Property investors don’t set stop losses. Experienced property investors know their markets and create the flexibility needed to hold through long flat periods. Why would you sell a rental yielding ever-increasing rents, even if you owed money on it? Many months ago, anticipating rising rents and falling rates we described this as ‘the perfect storm’.

  In the eighties, we waited over five flat years for the _huge_ returns which ensued. Yes, a few sold. We bought from a few who panicked and sold beachfront lots for what they’d paid.
  It would be crass to disclose how much we made… .

  NO, we’re not smart, NF. Couldn’t make the millions you make from ‘commodities’ and ‘retirement savings’*. We’re just very patient, hard-working mum’n'dad investors who retired early, to live comfortably and enjoy extended travel.
  You’re the hotshot here, son!~

  * Link? http://seekingalpha.com/user/823973/profile

• 246 Ned S // Dec 4, 2011 at 10:43 pm

  The last 10 years sort of bolted when I wasn’t especially watching -- I’ll have to settle into a grinding 18 months minimum (25 years maximum???) back in the workforce to maybe balance my little oversight up? Damn!

  There’s just no timing these markets hey?

• 247 Biker // Dec 4, 2011 at 10:51 pm

  Mate, get your cheque book ready. In a little over 48 hours, mug punters like me will be _begging_ you to take our beachside rentals off our hands for 40 -- 60% less than we paid for them (apparently).

  (He’s back to puppets and neck-biting again. It’s known as regression to the mean… . )

• 248 Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype // Dec 5, 2011 at 7:12 am

  Biker

  What are you on about.Show where I said 40%-60% fall in prices. I never said it’s & you know it. In fact I think in the back of your mind you believe this will happen I think it’s called “repressed fear” but in you case it presents itself as “expressed fear” because you keep banging on about it?

  (Link & point to which comment number I say what you cliam I said)

  Betya cant do it?

• 249 Greg Atkinson // Dec 5, 2011 at 8:46 am

  Well we will have clearer picture what house prices are doing when we get the figures for the December Quarter from the ABS in February 2012.

  What we do know based on the September Quarter is that:

  Annually, house prices decreased in Brisbane (-5.2%), Darwin (-4.4%), Perth (-4.2%), Adelaide (-3.2%), Canberra (-2.2%), Melbourne (-2.1%), Sydney (-0.3%) and Hobart (-0.3%).

  Source: House Price Indexes: Eight Capital Cities, Sep 2011 (ABS)

  So at the moment the trend on an annual basis is down and I suspect the same will be true for December.

• 250 CraigR // Dec 5, 2011 at 9:26 am

  um Not fooled people do actually offer 1 years rent in advance in the hope it will show the property manager that they are prepared to commit to the house.

  I can’t provide you a link with this data sorry, we didn’t blog it as we offered the years rent.
  See in 2004 we had just moved back to Perth and really didn’t want to live with family anymore. we went to rent a house but about 20 other applicants were made. We offered the year in advance and were accepted. At no time did the Property Manager ask for the money to be paid. She even said that would not be necessary to pay.

  If you are so down on investing in property why do you even bother to reply to every topic about this subject? There are people out there still making a lot of money from IP’s. you certainly sound like the typical Australian that can’t be happy with another persons happiness and therefore have to put them down all the time.
  I certainly wouldn’t tell you where my investments were, why should anyone else!?

  See Not Fooled, I don’t believe there is a God that created everything, yet I know lots of people that do think this. We accept we have different views and live happily together. i don’t try to convince them nor they me. You have stated your case over and over, many times what you have said has been wrong from other peoples point of view. Accept it and move on. Worry about what you are doing and please, please stop trying to prove the world is still flat good day.

• 251 Biker // Dec 5, 2011 at 10:07 am

  History repeats itself… ad infinitum…

  * I state that NF said XYZ;

  * NF denies it;

  * I provide the link;

  * NF changes the subject, or reverts to neck bite/puppet play.

  Here’s the direct quote:

  Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype Posted at 9:47 PM August 30, 2011: “@ Too Easy nice attempt to Spruik the market & scare people into thinking the better buy now? What do you mean “Not Gonna Be Affordable” it is not affordable Today – Now. But this exactly what it was like in the US & Ireland then prices fell 40% – 60% & it became affordable. THE DAYS OF AFFORDABLE HOUSING IS JUST AROUND THE CORNER.” (My caps)

  Here’s how you find the link, NF:

  1. Copy a dozen of the words in the direct quote;

  2. Paste them into Google.

  3. BINGO!~ Up comes the link…

  What IS it with you, son? Are you _terminally_ thick?
  Were you a highly successful liar as the child of very gullible parents? Has lying consistently worked for you as an adult? What pattern of behaviour has trapped you in this undesirable habit?

  In your current domicile, counselling is free. Get help for a condition which has very likely restricted your freedom immeasurably… .

• 252 Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype // Dec 5, 2011 at 10:36 am

  Biker

  I don’t make a forecast in the post you put up? No not me!!

  Poor comprehension skills at play here that explains why your still in the property sector.

  I am making a O*B*S*V*A*T*I*O*N not a forecast I am simply saying that the same conditions that prevailed in the American & Irish markets at the time of their property market collapse & prevalent in the Australian property market today. I then go on to say that because of this the “Days of Affordable for Australia are just around the corner” I don’t actual put a percentage or number to it do I?

  No I observe that the same conditions that we have led to their markets falling 40% -- 60% exist in our market today. I don’t even give a hint as to how much our prices will fall.

  That was done by you & only you.

  FYI that reference is from AUG 2011 & since then REIWA & RP Data & APM have reported that house prices dropped so my “OBSERVATION” is accurate!!

  BTW you keep harping on about Dec 6th I say I never said what you claim I said but you cant put up anything yet to support your assertions? (Perhaps because I never said it)

  Keep digging CHAMP the hole is only getting deeper!!

• 253 Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype // Dec 5, 2011 at 10:39 am

  aBiker

  Too scared to put a link up at the same time as the comment because it will show the context the comments were made in

  Chicken?

• 254 Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype // Dec 5, 2011 at 10:45 am

  Psst Biker

  When people resort to this:
  “What IS it with you, son? Are you _terminally_ thick?
  Were you a highly successful liar as the child of very gullible parents? Has lying consistently worked for you as an adult? What pattern of behaviour has trapped you in this undesirable habit?

  In your current domicile, counselling is free. Get help for a condition which has very likely restricted your freedom immeasurably… .”

  I know I have won the debate & I have got under their skin.

  $400,000 in lost equity in the past 12 months & still prices are falling.

  “Making Housing in Australia more affordable” exactly the way I forecast it.

  Tee He Hee … Back to biting your own neck CHAMP

• 255 Plornt // Dec 5, 2011 at 10:48 am

  NF and Biker, both of you should take the higher ground and cease this as its arguably bordering on invective.
  Lets all leave the computer screens, get a coffee, sit down, relax and comeback with a more relaxed and courteous demeanour.

• 256 Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype // Dec 5, 2011 at 10:50 am

  @ Plornt

  Agree play the Ball & not the Man.

  Should make for a better discussion. After all I could be wrong about my views on property.

• 257 Biker // Dec 5, 2011 at 10:56 am

  HaHa… You didn’t say it, but now it’s “…exactly the way you foresaw it…” ? And, just as I predicted, ‘neck-biting’.

  Plornt, what we have here is a serial offender:

  http://www.perthnow.com.au/business/australian-bankers-association-launches-website-for-financially-stressed-homeowners-to-negotiate-hardship-packages/comments-e6frg2qc-1226213812008

  Comments 2, 3, 4 and 5. Not as virulent as the six-in-a-row we’ve become used to, but the day isn’t over, yet!

• 258 Biker // Dec 5, 2011 at 11:01 am

  Uhhh… Sorry… and Comment # 8.
  10:00am and already NF has logged (at least) 62.5% of the posts.

  Spot his signature?

• 259 Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype // Dec 5, 2011 at 11:14 am

  Biker

  Your playing the man?

  Make your point or address the issue.

  You said I forecast a 40% or 60% fall in prices & clearly I made no such forecast.

  Now what’s this Dec 6th thing you keep talking about?

• 260 Stillgotshoeson // Dec 5, 2011 at 11:16 am

  One would think the banks are concerned about the current state of play in the economy or they would not have set this up…..

  http://www.perthnow.com.au/business/australian-bankers-association-launches-website-for-financially-stressed-homeowners-to-negotiate-hardship-packages/story-e6frg2qc-1226213812008

• 261 Stillgotshoeson // Dec 5, 2011 at 11:24 am

  Biker // Dec 5, 2011 at 10:56 am

  HaHa… You didn’t say it, but now it’s “…exactly the way you foresaw it…” ? And, just as I predicted, ‘neck-biting’

  Not taking sides in the argument, just pointing out, as I did about myself having paid rent months in advance.. The crux of NF’s long winded post was that affordability was around the corner… I see no direct quote from him about a % figure. However wages have gone up and house prices have come down so yes, affordability has improved.

  The issue now between bears and bulls is at what point affordability will stop continuing to improve.

• 262 Biker // Dec 5, 2011 at 11:26 am

  CRIKEY!~ Never seen _that_ link before, Shoes!~

  6th December 2011, Wayne G?

  “Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype Posted at 10:13 PM December 06, 2010 12 months time the US & Irish will be thankful things are not as bad as OZ … one Bubble at a Time or as some folks would say BOOM BOOM POW … ”

  And how bad did he predict it would be?

  “Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype Posted at 9:47 PM August 30, 2011: @ Too Easy nice attempt to Spruik the market & scare people into thinking the better buy now? What do you mean “Not Gonna Be Affordable” it is not affordable Today – Now. But this exactly what it was like in the US & Ireland then prices fell 40% – 60% & it became affordable. The days of affordable housing is (sic) just around the corner…”

• 263 Biker // Dec 5, 2011 at 11:37 am

  This is how it works, Shoes. If you’re silly enough to make specific, dated predictions and you get it wrong, you admit it.

  Take NF’s ‘I own SIX investment properties’ claim. He _finally_ admitted lying about it, after scores of denials. Why let some AH smack you about for a year-or-so, before you have that kind of admission _dragged_ out of you? But why not LEARN from it? Why continue to make stupid claims like “Biker, you’ve lost $400K this year…” ; “Owners costs will be up $9K in 2011″; “7% is really 22.5%”… and so on… and on… and on…

  Go back to Comment # 249 for an accurate picture of WA’s fall in home values this year. Now, contrast that with this year’s rise in rents.

• 264 Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype // Dec 5, 2011 at 11:39 am

  Biker

  You keep shooting yourself in the foot. As Shoes says there is no forecast of 40% or 60% it is all in your mind.

  The Dec 6th 2010 quote is incomplete & again no working link for the reader to check for himself. Put the comment up in full & a link & I will be more than happy to explain / discuss.

• 265 Biker // Dec 5, 2011 at 11:48 am

  I realise you are technically-challenged and the computers provided you are probably 486s, so I’ll _again_ give you the link, NF.

  http://www.perthnow.com.au/business/business-old/construction-slowdown-to-pause-rate-rise/story-e6frg2qu-1225960148535

  Shoes? An old biker mate from w-a-y back, who once wished me all the very best of health and mobility for life.
  Now _that’s_ a link.

• 266 Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype // Dec 5, 2011 at 12:38 pm

  OK Biker lets have a look at what I said in Full?

  Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype Posted at 10:13 PM December 06, 2010

  Spread Fear & Alarm??? … Oh please pot calling the kettle black? …. Fear & Alarm stock & trade of Property Inc … Ever hear ” BUY NOW OR RENT FOREVER ” or this classic “Prices Double every 10 years if you dont buy now you never will ” Fear/Alarm?? of course not that is just caring advice given to your fellow man? … Bottle Water Salesman ? it is Nothing like the SNAKE OIL liberally applied to the property sector bu SPRUIKERS INC … Wont work here ? … Oh yes it will … Just have to look at the length of your responses these days .. gone are your flippent 2 line remarks & quirky tales of Travel & Pirate Adventures … Now your scared all that money / wealth going down the drain ….. 12 months time the US & Irish will be thankful things are not as bad as OZ … POP POP POP one Bubble at a Time or as some folks would say BOOM BOOM POW … Ahh the good old days when Dogman still had his BOOM BOOM …..

  Comment 31 of 33

  The bit I think we are focusing on is “… Now your scared all that money / wealth going down the drain ….. 12 months time the US & Irish will be thankful things are not as bad as OZ … ”

  Looking at the above I see me saying nothing about 5% 10% 20% 40% 60% fall in prices? (I think it might be a suppressed fear that you have?)

  Can you explain how you came to that conclusion because I did not say it?

  Now on the 6th Dec 201 I said …”12 months time the US & Irish will be thankful things are not as bad as OZ ” the page was discussing “Construction Slowdown” & I was talking to the topic but you insist it was on price? So lets accept what you say & lets have a look at how I went either way?

  1) New Construction Starts in Australia are twice as bad as US & Irish markets so that a “WIN FOR ME”

  2) For the last 12 months Australian House prices have been dropping at 2 or 3 times the rate of US & Irish House prices. “WIN For ME” because on the 6th Dec 2011 {Exactly 12 months after I said it) someone in the US or Ireland reflecting back on the previous 12 months would have to be “THANKFUL” that their house prices are not falling as fast as they are here in Australia.

  3) “Now your scared all that money / wealth going down the drain ” as it turns out you had everyone reason to be fearful. Guess what Biker since I posted this you lost over $400,000 in equity on your housing investments. If only you took more notice of what I said you would be $400,000 better off.

  Now I dare say we will visit this topic again in another 12 months & still the US & Irish will be grateful things are not as bad as they are in Australia.

  (By all means save a link to this page to quote me in 12 months time I certainly will be)

  Come on Biker admit it I was right & we can move on from here?

• 267 Biker // Dec 5, 2011 at 5:05 pm

  Do you _remember_ making those two statements, NF?

  Would you like links?

  Do you _DENY_ having made those two requests?

  WHY did you make those requests?

  * Did you believe you had no accountability for lying and misleading others?

  * Did you believe that saturating the blogwaves with lies would make them ‘facts’?

  * Or did you realise some of us were onto you and you weren’t ‘winning’ as you’ve claimed so many times you are ? (Twice today, in fact… .)

  Is that ticking I hear the clockwork of puppetry and neck-biting… or the long-awaited countdown to Nut Fool Day?

• 268 Biker // Dec 5, 2011 at 5:32 pm

  Yes, I can see you’re winning right here:

  http://www.perthnow.com.au/business/australian-bankers-association-launches-website-for-financially-stressed-homeowners-to-negotiate-hardship-packages/story-e6frg2qc-1226213812008

  Third admission you’ve _repeatedly_ lied online.
  I’m digging a hole? You’ve _buried_ y’self, son!

• 269 Senator13 // Dec 5, 2011 at 9:08 pm

  No one cares who said what and when. It brings nothing to the conversation.

  Obviously neither is going to conceed so it is probably best to call it a night.

• 270 Greg Atkinson // Dec 5, 2011 at 10:39 pm

  Well said Senator. Around and around and around they go, where they will stop nobody can know Zzzzz….

• 271 Greg Atkinson // Dec 5, 2011 at 10:45 pm

  Not Fooled and Biker, you are testing my patience.

• 272 Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype // Dec 6, 2011 at 12:27 am

  Greg

  I agree let the reader judge merit of arguments to date.

  Enough said by both of us.

• 273 Stillgotshoeson // Dec 6, 2011 at 12:59 am

  Biker // Dec 4, 2011 at 10:12 pm

  Shoes:

  “Land Available (likes to build)
  Rental Vacancy Rate 1% or lower
  Prices around $350k to $450k level”

  You’ll have to give him _much_ more than that, Shoes!~

  Near the sea

  I have had a look, Yanchep seems a likely candidate…

• 274 Biker // Dec 6, 2011 at 11:33 am

  Who cares who said what/when?

  One of the major issues we face in evaluating internet information is that it _does_ matter who said what.
  Hence if Soros or Buffett are the source, we’re more likely to assign comments more credibility, reliability and validity.

  When? Critical information, except for those who believe time-in-the-market is more important than timing.

  The fact remains that a bright spark with a 600,000-hit blogsite (and a serious case of RSI) told his wide readership (which apparently dwarfs your own, Greg) that by 10:13 am one year hence Australia’s property market would be in worse shape than those of Ireland or the USA:

  “Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype Posted at 10:13 PM December 06, 2010 “…12 months time the US & Irish will be thankful things are not as bad as OZ … one Bubble at a Time or as some folks would say BOOM BOOM POW … ”

  You cannot imagine my relief when 10:13 am passed this morning, without the four horsemen of the Apocalypse, thunder and lightning, fire and brimstone… and the crashing to earth of WA homes.

  It is officially Nut Fool Day. Property Bears (one in particular) won’t like it, but _every_ 6th December from here on, WA will celebrate another close call in the l-o-n-g list of foolistic predictions made by WA’s noisiest spruiker,
  a fella who has berated homeowners and investors for many years, most recently as Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype.
  

• 275 CraigR // Dec 6, 2011 at 11:46 am

  “Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype Posted at 10:13 PM December 06, 2010 “…12 months time the US & Irish will be thankful things are not as bad as OZ … one Bubble at a Time or as some folks would say BOOM BOOM POW … ”

  Not Fooled that does read that Australia is going to see a far worse crash than the USA and Irish property market saw when taken in context of the conversation at the time. Considering those markets and the state the Australian market is just now, I’d have to say you were way off. The same though as all the people saying the market will bounce back next month, no the month after, no wait could be 2099.

  the point is, your statement does imply that the Australian market is going to drop more than those markets did. Fair play you never said a date but people will always hold you to your word as you claim to be a property expert in that you always pop up spruiking your doomsday comments.

  you were wrong but take solace in that you weren’t the only one that was wrong.

• 276 Biker // Dec 6, 2011 at 11:00 pm

  HaHa… . He never said a date? Could this fidiot have BEEN more specific?

  Who else was wrong? List his aliases… .

• 277 Plornt // Dec 7, 2011 at 10:30 am

  Well, I think they’ve stopped? Or have I spoken too soon?
  This debate reminds me of two gumpy old men debating at the local canasta tournament.

• 278 Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype // Dec 7, 2011 at 11:32 am

  Plornt

  Hows the serenity?

• 279 Plornt // Dec 7, 2011 at 12:47 pm

  Lol NF. Hopefully the arguing has stopped indefinitely, people have calmed down and this isn’t just the eye of the cyclone .

• 280 Greg Atkinson // Dec 7, 2011 at 1:12 pm

  I hope so as well. I was getting close to using the block function which is something I don’t like to do. If people want to argue then they are free to put in the effort and set up a site for themselves.

• 281 Ned S // Dec 8, 2011 at 12:30 am

  NF exists to talk the Oz (and particularly WA housing market) down – From what I can see? And sees that as reasonable as there’s lots of vested interests that exist to talk the Oz housing market up.

  But Biker ain’t having none of it. Which also seems reasonable?

  Hmmm – I look forward to continuing to hear what both your thoughts are on things like global finances generally and bond and bullion and equity markets and inflation and deflation and Oz superannuation and things like GDP ratios to Private and Public Debt and yabba yabba yabba etc – Plus your plans for getting ahead going forward.

  But stuff like what’s been getting bounced round here recently is unendingly TIRESOME!

• 282 Greg Atkinson // Mar 13, 2012 at 6:48 am

  Well one thing that seems to be happening is that property prices are weak in many areas and there have been some pretty solid declines in others. Last year house prices on a national level posted declines but it’s probably too early to say prices are trending down or is it?

  According to this article -- Property prices battered: Top 10 worst hit areas revealed

  HOME prices have been slashed almost in half in some parts of Australia, with vendors forced into heavy discounting as properties languish for months in a skittish market.

  Read more: http://www.news.com.au/money/property/property-prices-battered-in-parts-of-australia-amid-heavy-discounting/story-e6frfmd0-1226297242759#ixzz1owRHvull

  I wonder how widespread the downturn is? I wouldn’t read too much into house price declines in areas hit by flood but what about other areas?

• 283 Plornt // Mar 13, 2012 at 8:45 am

  Doesn’t look good does it. This is probably just the start. Remember some areas in the United States went down 70-80%+ that experienced massive price appreciation (e.g. Florida -- esp costal homes). I know there are many real estate markets within Australia and worldwide, but I would prefer to wait until the correction is over which could take a few years. I think its unrealistic to expect a correction to be over so quickly when the rise was substantial and prolonged. Usually bubbles correct to where they began, so as a rule of thumb take 2001 prices and there is your floor.

  Historically real estate bubbles first pop in the luxury areas/Coastal, and then the dominoes start falling across the board. At the end you have some economic shock that forces higher unemployment, and then mass mortgage defaults occur, and a spade of panic selling and capitulation takes place; the dust settles and then it takes several years before people are confident to re-enter. History is rhyming again. Granted you may get a few gems early, but some of these properties could end up 70-80% down. I am not smart enough to pick the bottom, and will continue to avoid real estate heavily.

  This drivel should not be taken as financial advice. Seek to obtain professional
  advice before proceeding with any financial decision.

• 284 Leigh // Mar 14, 2012 at 9:13 am

  Historically real estate is a good thing to have simply because we can’t make any more of it while we can make lots more people who need to live on it. There is a claim that real estate doubles in value every seven years and it is generally true if you look at a 21/28/35 year term. A house I bought in 1971 for $10,500 I sold for $169, 000 in 1991. However, position is still everything, so if you buy in a flood plain, expect to be flooded. Real estate does work, but it is a long term investment and requires management. Sure prices are falling and those that have over committed and have to sell will loose, but if you have been prudent in your borrowings a two or three year downturn means nothing over the twenty to thirty year period that you should be committed to. Build equity and borrow against the equity to buy again. Over commitment
  is the killer, but like any form of gambling some people just can’t resist going all in.

• 285 Harry Lane // Mar 23, 2012 at 1:06 pm

  Let’s forget the heated argument and facts and figures thrown up by the bulls and bears and look at risk management 101.

  Best case scenario for a bull: the market manages to just keep up with inflation for a few years i.e zero real return.

  Option 1: Hang on: CON? Big drop, hard to sell in panicing market. PRO? I save the stamp duty I’d spend to sell out now and buy in later. Amount at risk? 10-20-30-40% of the house price -- let’s say hundreds of thousands.

  Worst case scenario for a Bear: the market just manages to keep up with inflation for a few years

  Option 2: Sell now and take a haircut. CON: I don’t get what I dreamt I might, I pay agents fees. PRO: I can buy back in if it doesn’t crash and goes sideways for only the stamp duty. Amount at risk? $40k for agent and stamp duty (all price dependent of course).

  So there you have it. If you hold you risk hundreds of thousands for little upside gain. If you sell you definitely miss out on say $40k (but even that is only a 10% loss).

  One option would bankrupt you, the other will hurt a little for a while.

  And this is based on an optomistic view for property prices!

  Pick one.

• 286 Greg Atkinson // Mar 23, 2012 at 2:45 pm

  Interesting: “Since late 2010, the Australian housing market has been quite weak with home values falling by 5.5 per cent across the combined capital cities since the market peaked,” the report said. “Buyers who purchased a home since this time have in many instances seen the value of their home move below their contract price.”

  Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/business/homes-with-negative-equity-on-the-increase-20120320-1vhe3.html#ixzz1puqizUCZ

  Looks like a 10% correction by the end of 2012 is a very real possibility now?

• 287 Lachlan // Mar 24, 2012 at 1:55 pm

  “Sell now”…if you can. Whether or not prices are destined to crash i know a lot of people who want to sell including family who have been sitting for a long time with little or no interest at all.

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