Shareswatch Australia

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• 701 Frank // Mar 20, 2013 at 10:27 am

  NF try as I might to find validity in your comment 698 I can not. You can only measure what can be measured and what that is showing is that prices are rising, and rising in every capital city. Fact. Who gives a toss if the auction clearance rate is 70% of 50 homes, 500 homes or 5000 homes is is still 70%. Low home loan issues, low building starts, growing population, low stocks on the market, low inflation, high dollar, low unemployment, increasing wages, these are not conditions that will see prices fall

• 702 Biker // Mar 20, 2013 at 12:02 pm

  “…these are not conditions that will see prices fall…”

  Nor will rising rents, Frank. Ours have risen an average 8.6% pa during the last five years. We had anticipated far less return in retirement, so it’s difficult not to smile when NFTPS (Comment # 691) disses us Mum & Dad ‘property speculators’… .

• 703 Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype // Mar 20, 2013 at 3:11 pm

  Frank you say

  “Who gives a toss if the auction clearance rate is 70% of 50 homes, 500 homes or 5000 homes is is still 70%”

  It’s a numbers thing Frank I doubt you would understand. But I will try.

  The REIV are shouting from the roof tops that the clearance rate is back up to 70% or 80% or 100% but in reality sales are at record lows.

  As a example if there were normally 1000 homes put up for sale per week in a normal healthy market & the clearance rate was 70% there would be 700 sales.

  But if only 500 homes are put up for sale & the clearance rate is 70% there would be 350 sales.

  What that means is that there was a demand for 700 homes per week from home buyers but in today’s market there is only demand for 350 homes from home buyers.

  You see if demand stayed up where it should be with all these rich migrants coming to Australia by the Jumbo Jet load & only 500 homes went on the market the clearance rate would be 100% {Remember numbers Frank it cant be more than 100% clearance }

  Then REIV would have something to crow about demand exceeding supply.

  But in reality numbers like this indicate that demand has fallen.

  Be honest with me frank deep deep down you really do care about these numbers because if it was the other way around prices would be going through the roof & you would be rejoicing so I hope you understand why I don’t believe you when you say you don’t care about these numbers because you really really do.

• 704 Biker // Mar 20, 2013 at 3:49 pm

  If numbers count so much in respect to demand, perhaps you may recall your comments when supply was up to nearly 19,000 homes, NFTPS.
  Today’s figure is 8,500.

  You may choose to dismiss the lower figure, but we recall you crowing when it was over twice today’s… .

• 705 Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype // Mar 20, 2013 at 4:01 pm

  Biker

  Seeing you refuse to name the type of property you rent it is always difficult to challenge your claims on property.

  But lets look at your claim on the previous post that you have enjoyed rental growths of 8.6% PA for the last 5 years.

  Lets use REIWA Median rents for a house in Perth metro area?

  March 2008 (5 Years ago) it was $370pw @ 8.6% pa growth that you claim it would be $559.92 PW today !!!!

  But guess what REIWA say MEDIAN rents in Perth for March 2013 are only $450 pw that works out to 4.0%

  Biker your 8.6% claim is inflated by 100% Plus

  Confused Mum & Dad landlords think they are seeing rental growth of 8.6% pa when in reality it less than half. But they have a warm fuzzy feeling that they are getting ahead & dont factor in Rates / Insurance Costs rising at 2 or 3 times the growth they are getting in rents. (4% reality Vs 8.6% Perception}

  Edited by Admin

• 706 Frank // Mar 20, 2013 at 4:04 pm

  I understand numbers fine Not Fooled so climb down from your soap box and don’t try to lecture me son. Reality is that house sales have fallen below boom levels.

  There is a simple explanation as to why WE ARE NOT IN A BOOM.

  Demand is more normal and we are seeing more normal price growth but not the fall YOU claimed must come.

• 707 Biker // Mar 20, 2013 at 4:05 pm

  “…your absurd claims on property…”

  Clearly you haven’t studied the 2006 -- 2011 census, NFTPS. Would you like a quick analysis of where rents went during that period, according to the ABS?

• 708 Biker // Mar 20, 2013 at 4:14 pm

  Since a question like the latter may be off-putting and result in a l-o-n-g silence, here’s the analysis:

  “Tenants are paying almost double what they did in 2006, the latest Census shows. At the same time, the median wage has increased by only 32 per cent, to $662 per week. The median weekly rent has increased $170 to $300, with 8.9 per cent of renters spending more than 30 per cent of their income on rent, up from 7.4 per cent in 2006. The 2011 Census also shows there are 40,000 more tenants in the state compared to 2006, with the proportion of all households rising 2 percentage points.”

  Our 8.6% figure would be higher, were it not our policy to reward great tenants with zero percent increases during their leases. Following tenancies, we’ve increased rents as much as 21%.

  Edited by Admin.

• 709 Greg Atkinson // Mar 20, 2013 at 4:28 pm

  Not Fooled and Biker please consider taking your debate elsewhere. As I have said many, many times..this is not a site dedicated to the Perth property market.

  This is my last reminder before I activate the automatic spam filter.

• 710 Matthew // Mar 20, 2013 at 4:44 pm

  Hey Greg,

  Sitting in the Business Lounge in Brisbane this afternoon waiting for a bird to move cities I had the pleasure of watching some of Question Time. Back to Back questions from the opposition asked our esteemed Prime Minister how many illegal boats have arrived in the past two weeks.

  On both occasions the PM launched into a long, angry diatribe at the poser of the question, yet on neither occasion did she answer it.

  It was a pretty simple question, the answer only needed to be one word but she charged down a path of obscure irrelevance instead

  Made me laugh and reminded me of someone but I can not think of whom…..

• 711 Stillgotshoeson // Mar 28, 2013 at 7:59 am

  @Matthew Comment 693..

  and yet…
  http://finance.ninemsn.com.au/newsbusiness/aap/8633700/job-worries-keep-mortgage-holders-stressed

  “The latest Genworth homebuyer confidence index, which tracks the mood of people who own or are thinking of buying a property, found nearly a quarter of those with a home loan had problems meeting repayments.

  The result was up from 18 per cent six months ago, and reflects increasing concerns about unemployment and job security, ”

  “Overall, the homebuyer confidence index tumbled 5.1 per cent in March to its lowest level since 2008.”

  Yet home buyers have nver had it so good with ultra low interest rates….

  I fail to see how house prices can get any great leaps up happening in the near term. Further declines in Melbourne prices are being spouted by the RBA now.

• 712 Biker // Mar 28, 2013 at 10:32 am

  “I fail to see how house prices can get any great leaps up happening in the near term…”

  With Super looking so promising, you’re probably spot on… .

• 713 Stillgotshoeson // Mar 28, 2013 at 10:57 am

  http://www.theage.com.au/business/markets-live/markets-live-asx-floating-around-even-20130328-2gvga.html

  ”

  12:40pm: Melbourne home owners are being forced cut the asking prices of their properties at a steeper rate than even during the global financial crisis, highlighting the continued softness of the city’s housing market.

  The new research comes as the Reserve Bank of Australia yesterday issued an unusually frank assessment of Melbourne’s housing sector, forecasting that further price falls are ahead due to an oversupply in the new home and apartment markets.

  Analysts RP Data report that vendors are now selling their homes for 7.5 per cent less than they originally asked for when they listed their property for sale.

  The degree of ‘‘discounting’’ has risen from 5 per cent since the slump started in 2010 and surpassed the 6.9 per cent recorded in the wake of the GFC for the last two years.

  ‘‘It’s reflective of the fact that vendors haven’t yet adjusted to the changed conditions in the Melbourne market,’’ said Cameron Cusher.

  ‘‘People probably still have that expectation that they can get a higher price than a what their neighbour sold for six months ago. But the reality is that has simply not been the case.’’

  Melbourne posted one of the steepest discounting rates among the eight capital cities in January, topped only by Brisbane (-8.3 per cent) and Hobart (-9.4 per cent).

  Sydney, Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth and Darwin saw discounting decline this year. In Sydney, the level of discounting fell from more than 6 per cent to 5.4 per cent.

  ”

  If the Australian economy is doing so well, why do they need to raid our Superannuation to boost the budget bottom line.

  I do believe I told you they would be after our super some time ago…

• 714 Biker // Mar 28, 2013 at 11:27 am

  Many vendors always pad the asking price, knowing that buyers feel more ‘in control’ if they can knock 5% -- 10% off the asking price.

  We’ve never doubted for a moment that both parties would come after Superannuation. Under Labor, it has been happening for many years now. When our dual 70% Salary Sacrifice suffered its first $50K limit, we bought more property. When it was further reduced to 25%, we bought more property.

  Fear and greed rule markets. Cash returns are poor, experts tell us sharemarkets will soon crash as low as 4200, and Super has a large dark cloud over it. Fortunately there’s _always_ a silver lining… .

• 715 Matthew // Mar 28, 2013 at 2:08 pm

  Shoes, seems to support my forecast for the Melbourne Property market for the year, as in the prediction thread of Vic — -.0001%.

  However just as it is not all about Perth as seems to be said all the time, equally it is not all about Melbourne. The flat expectation for your city will be countered by strong growth in NT and WA, and moderate growth in NSW and Qld, as we are seeing in place now and will continue to see for the balance of the year.

  My point is simple, and remains unchanged. People waiting for a property price crash will be sorely disappointed. Will not happen. The correction that happened, and slow growth over the past 5 years was an economic necessity. However the next phase will be a rise in prices.

  Why does the government need to raid our super? Because they are inept and have spent more than anyone could comprehend without achieving anything, while creating instability in the market with poorly timed and executed taxation poilicies.

  They are now coming after the diesel rebate which will force farmers from the land, they really are that good….

• 716 Biker // Mar 28, 2013 at 4:51 pm

  Melbourne has always attracted (more than) its fair share of new arrivals.. and I’d be be surprised if it’s as flat, even in the short term, as some predict:

  http://www.watoday.com.au/business/migration-soars-and-fools-fly-in-20130328-2gw5u.html

  I’m sure you’d have to agree with Pascoe that we attract ‘the best and brightest’, Shoes…

• 717 Greg Atkinson // Apr 2, 2013 at 9:29 am

  RP Data-Rismark March Hedonic Home Value Index Results

  Capital gains over the March quarter the highest since May 2010

  Dwelling values across the combined capital cities of Australia recorded a 2.8% rise over the March quarter, taking the cumulative capital gain to 4.7% since the market bottomed out in May last year.

  Highlights over the quarter:

  · Best performing capital city: Hobart +6.1%

  · Weakest performing capital city: Adelaide, -0.5 per cent

  · Highest rental yields: Darwin houses with gross rental yield of 6.0 %and Darwin Units at 6.3%

  · Lowest rental yields: Melbourne houses with gross rental yield of 3.6 %and Melbourne units at 4.4%

  · Most expensive city: Sydney with a median dwelling price of $550,500

  · Most affordable city: Hobart with a median dwelling price of $332,500

  (Released: Tuesday 2 April, 2013)

  More information available from rpdata.com

• 718 Matthew // Apr 2, 2013 at 11:22 pm

  Cant be true Greg. Prices have to fall, I mean a regional lender went broke and the construction sector was going to collapse remember? And dont forget people renting are at capacity and cant borrow anymore money.

  And dont forget that major builder that will struggle to see Chistmas 2012 out.

  And something else about wages and blah blah.

  Want to know what the report you refer to is saying? Exactly what people who actualy follow property with an objective view point have been saying for 12 months.

  Not booming, but sure as hell not crashing, just a modest, below historical rise

• 719 Biker // Apr 4, 2013 at 4:39 pm

  I’m not sure you’re correct, Matthew.

  “REIWA reported today that the number of houses and units in XXXXX now on the market is below 7,000 which is 50% less than this time last year.”

• 720 Matthew // Apr 9, 2013 at 11:13 pm

  20 days of silence Greg. To quote Darryl Kerrigan from The Castle -- “hows the serenity”

• 721 Blondie girl // Apr 11, 2013 at 12:55 pm

  To Not Fooled, you need to realize that there is people out there who do know exactly what they are doing in property.

  Never assume.

  There are those who have not done their dough…

• 722 Greg Atkinson // Apr 23, 2013 at 4:18 pm

  Some interesting comments from The head of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s financial stability department, Luci Ellis, reported in The Australian today.

  Rather than post a quote, here is the link to the full article: Expect slow house price rises -- RBA

• 723 Matthew // Apr 23, 2013 at 11:49 pm

  A wise man has posted on this very site growth will be subdued…. I must canvas for a Board seat.

  Greg, I dont keep links of what I say on various sites because of my policy of only speaking fact unlike others I dont feel compelled to remember lies…!

  Anyway if I didnt say it here I have said elsewhere that around December 2011 sales of new houses at the display village level (as in not starts, but sales) of a major WA builder were around half the historical average.

  This said 2 things:

  1) A lack of confidence in property (undeniable) and
  2) A looming issues with housing starts and equal problem relating to supply vs demand factors.

  I had lunch with my same mate / contact / “insider” today. He said

  1) The budget brand in March sold 156% average
  2) The mid-market brand in March sold 200% average
  3) The premium brand sold 135% average.
  4) Less than 5% of sales will be built inside 10km of the CBD

  What does this tell me?

  3 very clear things:

  1) Not Fooleds claim that a prominent builder would not see Christmas was at best fantasy and a toss of a dart that deserves ridicule for its baseless scaremongering and

  2) The pent up demand that I have stated would lead to a real market price increase in the next 12 months as a result of low / slow building starts will be smoothed by the looming “boom” in construction starts.

  3) No matter the city you live in, stay inside 10km of the CBD and you will see above average returns.

  The lag betwen demand and supply will indeed lead to a price spike, it is inevitable, but once the new starts enter the market as complete homes we will see a natual price smoothing.

  Apply this nationally, as it is applicable, and you will see growth in the immediate future of <5%. And once the long term average corrects below 8% a larger growth.

  Falls or crashes though? Not going to happen.

• 724 Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype // Apr 24, 2013 at 12:40 am

  Yes Greg Luci Ellis also said in Aug 2008 …

  “It is all too clear that most episodes of financial disturbances have their roots in the build-up of risk in good times. While the specifics differ from episode to episode, there are some obvious common elements. In the boom, when economic conditions are benign and asset prices are rising, many investors perceive risk to be low and are prepared to borrow large amounts of money to purchase assets, with lenders all too willing to provide the finance. This reinforces the general sense of well being, with asset prices rising further and many people being emboldened to borrow even more. Given the sense of optimism, many people seek new and more risky ways of maintaining inflated expectations of returns, including by increasing their leverage, and the whole process is typically given extra fuel by a spurt of innovation in the financial sector. Those who caution that the good times may not continue are drowned out by this flood of optimism. And then something happens to put the whole process into reverse. The risk built up in the good times quickly crystallises. Asset prices fall, leverage needs to be reduced, a sense of pessimism pervades, and many people question why they, or at least their investment advisors, did not see the turnaround coming. This depiction is admittedly highly stylised, but it is not too far from the mark in describing events over recent years, or for that matter many other financial cycles.”

• 725 Blondie girl // Apr 24, 2013 at 12:42 pm

  The reality is that Australia is very well placed in both geographic & economic terms. Asia is growing & will continue to do so for decades.

  Capacity to save is indeed a function of income, but in this country the income is rising.

  There will always be people who struggle, frankly i don’t mind some tax $$ helping these vulnerable people.

  However for people, under the age of 40, who have enjoyed good quality education & have grown up this this lucky country of ours… I really don’t have the sympathy.

  I can assure you dwelling prices in Beijing have not gone down..a family associate gets 2 sms daily quoting real estate ….and the trend is up.
  Being worried about a crash & having a potential crash ..are 2 different things..

  The real world is showing a clear recovery in house prices continuing a solid expansionary phase of the cycle….lots & lots of good news out there.

  Not Fooled you are so funny..you are just so unhappy that the big Australian fantasy recession did not happen….

  Were you 1 of those who sold their house @ the bottom of the market?

• 726 Biker // Apr 24, 2013 at 6:54 pm

  One wonders how Luci imagines the accommodation needs of fast-growing states might be met…

  With WA, for example, hitting ‘an annual growth rate of 3.45 per cent’ and half as many houses listed for sale as this time last year, it seems likely that supply won’t keep up. Increased demand, at a time when economists are talking down the market, can only mean higher rents and higher prices.

• 727 Matthew // Apr 26, 2013 at 9:31 pm

  Greg,

  I do love your site and its ability to hold some accountable for their unfounded extremist opinions. Can I share some pre Christmas joy with you all?

  Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype // Dec 21, 2012 at 12:55 pm

  Looks like 2013 will be another bad year for property.

  Peet & Co are starting off the year with $50,000 discounts off blocks of land.

  I know many on here think what I have to say about property is worthless.

  But what about a group of professional developers & all their resources? All their Bean Counters / Sales & Marketing people are saying to them cut prices now & lets get rid of stock because prices are heading south.

  Peet & Co are not going to slash $50,000 off blocks of land if they don’t have to, they do it because they know that this time next year it will be worth far less.

  Just imaging buying a “Dream” block earlier this year to build that “Dream” home in 2013 only to see the developer has slashed $50,000 off the price you paid.

  FYI this will force other developers to follow suit or get left behind.

  http://www.peet.com.au/megalandsale/

  But but but but but Not Fooled if that is right then how does this happen:

  http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/wa/16875439/land-shortage-looms-as-demand-rockets/

  Now ok, ok, this is a WA article but lets just pick some high spots here:

  “Perth faces a land shortage within 12 months as developers struggle to release enough blocks to meet surging demand on the city’s sprawling urban fringe.”

  “Land sales have doubled over the past 18 months and developers have been bringing forward land releases for the sixth quarter running, according to the Urban Development Institute of Australia (WA).”

  “The development explosion has centred on Perth’s growing outer suburbs, such as the City of Wanneroo on Perth’s northern tip where 2581 lots were sold in the March quarter compared with fewer than 800 in the September quarter last year.”

  “Land developers sold an average 225 lots a week during the March quarter, a 15 per cent rise on the December quarter.”

  “The market has picked up quite rapidly,” UDIA WA chief executive Debra Goostrey said. “Because developers need buyers to put out the land, they were responding to the market as it was.

  “Now the market is beefing up, we are trying to play catch-up with our land supply.

  “Most developers are saying they’ve got very, very little stock at the moment.”

  Now that the market is beefing up…..

  Look out all the people, the sky is falling in, the sky is falling in…… says only Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype.

  People with half a clue on property were picking up the trends that were missed by Not Fooled and his slow reacting reference points.

  So to my point “I know many on here think what I have to say about property is worthless.”

  Yes we do Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype. Yes we do.

• 728 Biker // Apr 27, 2013 at 9:00 pm

  Accountability, Matthew?

  The trick has been nicely enacted by Steve Keen, who, caught out in a long punt, explained that _eventually_ he’d be proven right.

  In this version of the long punt, the gambler simply argues that years from now, t--i--m--e will prove him right… counting on any critics to eventually forget the _original_ bet (or die! )

• 729 Blondie girl // Apr 29, 2013 at 11:42 am

  Fact:
  House prices are not ridiculously high. You can buy starter packages for $300-400K. These have commuter links to our major cities.

  My family have been involved in property for many many years. I can tell you it’s a very rare happening for property prices to fall. I have always made profits for my last 20years in property.

  Fact: there is always going to be a demand for well located property.

  All this misled information by people hoping for a housing crash..its not happening so dream on.

  There is people who understand exactly what planning for growth in West Australia means..

  Yes there is rising cost of living in Oz but there is such a word called budgeting and living realism..

• 730 Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype // Apr 29, 2013 at 1:13 pm

  Greg

  In keeping with your wishes to discus property on a Australian wide basis, I will just ignore Matthews focus on me & the WA Housing market & instead address issues that would affect property markets.

  A big contributor to collapses in other housing markets (Spain/US/UK etc etc) were property speculators betting on ever increasing house prices for their housing strategy to work.

  The ATO tell us that the average Mum & Dad property speculator in Australia claimed losses of $9100 + in the 2009-2010 tax year. Now the ABS tell us that the average Household income is under $80,000.

  So the average Mum & Dad speculator is not a “High” income earner able to sustain years of ZERO or no capital growth to offset negative rental yields.

  Property spruikers continue to target the Gulliable Mum & Dad investor. Why? Because astute investors would not touch residential Australian property. Ever wonder why Super funds around Australia don’t invest in this sector?

  Came across this artice in a Brisbane newspaper the other day whilst visiting the Gold Coast {Now here’s a Train wreck}

  http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/real-estate-rort-ruining-thousands-of-lives/story-e6freon6-1226630727399

  As much as Matthew & others would like to deny it property is on the nose to most serious investors & therefore the need to go down the paths described in the article:

• 731 Blondie girl // Apr 29, 2013 at 3:23 pm

  Not Fooled:
  Yes there is some serious nasty rorts going on this country. I certainly don’t condone it. However, people should not be gullible and read everything carefully. They should also seek legal advice if they are not sure.

  Housing prices will only fall if the general economy is in some distress.

  There is those who have been predicting the following:
  .high interest rates
  .Banks to tighten their credit
  .Unemployment will rise
  .US Subprime will transfer to Australia
  .GFC
  .Housing stock levels to increase
  .Immigration will fall
  .Auction clearance rates to drop
  .Another GFC

  Still….. NO CRASH

• 732 Matthew // Apr 29, 2013 at 3:41 pm

  @ Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype:

  You say: “So the average Mum & Dad speculator is not a “High” income earner able to sustain years of ZERO or no capital growth to offset negative rental yields.”

  Well done on again taking small snippets of data (note data and not information) and making them into “fact” to support your fantasy world.

  Just the 3 points of rebuttal on this occasion:

  1) it is highly unlikely that the “average” Australian property investor is a single income household with an $80k income. In fact read todays Financial review, I enjoyed it on my flight to Sydney today and sadly left it on the plane. The article refers to property, specifically refuting most of your affordability claims (which is why I am sad I left it) and indicates that it is very much the minority of people who have investment properties let alone “average wage earners”.

  Common sense says a person with an after tax income of $61,228 is an unlikely representative of the Australian Property Investor so give it a rest

  2)And this I will type very slowly in the hope that it sinks in -- astute property investors do not rely on capital growth to offset negative rental yields. They rely on rising rents to create positive rental yields. The capital growth, which history shows nationally to be around 8% per annum, does indeed follow and is the cream on the investment cake.

  That is a fact. Wise property investors can see it, only you seem to continually miss this fundamental point of property investment, which is what makes it a LONG TERM STRATEGY. And also what shows clearly that you have never invested in property yourself irrespective of your claims to the contrary.

  3) Anyone to fall for the scam highlighted in your link is not an investor, they are gullible and sadly get what they deserve.

  So to my point “I know many on here think what I have to say about property is worthless.”

  Yes we do Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype. Yes we do.

• 733 Matthew // Apr 29, 2013 at 7:38 pm

  Just a second note:

  Not Fooled Blah Blah Blah Hype says:

  “As much as Matthew & others would like to deny it property is on the nose to most serious investors & therefore the need to go down the paths described in the article”

  So where are these “serious investors” pumping their money Nuffy Fool?

  Is it term deposits? nope
  Is it precious metals? Well gold reports lately would say not.
  Is it shares? possibly, but property is a more stable source at the moment

  OK, I get it now, the invesment sector of the economy that you lead (“intelligent investors”) have gone back to the basics of wealth preservation -- under the mattress or in a tin box under the lemon tree…

• 734 Matthew // Apr 30, 2013 at 7:51 am

  Not Fooled I am clearly on topic. I punched 3 very clear holes in your assertions in comment 730 and then asked you a simple question. You must have missed it so let me ask you again.

  You state that property is on the nose for investors and have claimed on many occasions that the smart money has exited property.

  There are four traditional investment methods in this country

  1) Cash
  2) Shares
  3) Property
  4) Precious metals

  So enlighten us Not Fooled just where has all the “smart money” you claim has exited property moved to? Very simple question so I am sure you will ignore it…

• 735 Greg Atkinson // May 1, 2013 at 8:47 am

  RP Data-Rismark April Hedonic Home Value Index Results

  Released: Wednesday 1 May, 2013

  Housing market softer in April after seasonally strong March quarter

  Dwelling values contracted by -0.5% over the month of April after posting a solid 2.8% gain over the first three months of 2013.

  Based on the April rpdata-Rismark Home Value Index, capital city dwelling values recorded their first month on-month decline since last December, posting a -0.5 per cent fall across the combined capital cities index. The April decline in dwelling values partly reverses the growth seen over the first quarter of the year where capital city dwelling values rose by 2.8 per cent.

• 736 Lachlan // May 1, 2013 at 12:49 pm

  ATO has new stats on income status of geared property investors too but I don’t have a link.

• 737 Blondie girl // May 1, 2013 at 5:18 pm

  Its easy to get confused with all the data, analysis,& reports by the media regarding real estate issues.

  One says a positive & the other a negative.

  People need to understand that property investing has its risks & should do their research. For eg you should not negative gear purely for the tax benefits which can be the incentive. The ultimate goal of investing is to CREATE LONG TERM WEALTH.

  There is a report by Larry Schlesinger/ ATO figures..

  Not sure if this is the report..Lachlan

  Those who are smart will use the bank loan $$ for as long as you can to eventually obtain capital growth on the highest combined value of the property that you can afford. You are essentially using the lenders $$ to accumulate capital growth..end result positive equity is made in long term.

  I am personally not worried by market forces these days as a positive portfolio has been achieved. It seems selfish, but I realize I still need to be aware whats happening..

• 738 Lachlan // May 1, 2013 at 7:07 pm

  “all the data, analysis,& reports by the media”
  Well yes BG I had not seen that particular article but they are some of the stats. I was trying to avoid linking to an opinion article so as to only introduce official stats here… and therefore delved instead into the ATO website but without finding what I wanted.
  As for market forces…crumbs. I have come to the conclusion that i will never know enough about them. We have all hopefully learnt that markets are affected by many things and many people that are unpredictable/unknowable quantities. I can’t therefore be so smart as to calculate a lot and win big in the short term. I can only keep a sober attitude which means in part… work to increase base income, buffer risks eg diversify, keep a long term mindset etc

• 739 Geoff B // May 13, 2013 at 6:51 pm

  I find some of the opinions and quotes of historical “facts” on this site quite amusing. The guy called Matthew reckons real estate values rise 8% per annum “historically”. When you consider that property owners near me ( north of Brisbane) have bought old houses, knocked them down, and built much larger houses and have , of course, experienced massive capital gains, then I would expect the median prices to rise in those areas. The only true statistics would be if they compared houses that have not had significant capital expenditure spent on them.
  Just out of interest it may be useful to know that the Big Four banks, AMP, Qantas, Telstra, and many other companies have returned, on average, over 50% in the last year to date. Also it is useful to note that none of these public companies required any expenditure by the shareholders to achieve these returns.

• 740 Biker // May 14, 2013 at 8:43 am

  “…the Big Four banks, AMP, Qantas, Telstra, and many other companies have returned, on average, over 50% in the last year…”

  It’s easy to cherry-pick, after the fact, Geoff. We can cite even better returns for several of our ‘land wins’.

  We’d be more impressed if you could predict (as one shares aficionado here does) a half dozen shares which will return over 50% during the _next_ year.

• 741 Matthew // May 14, 2013 at 10:29 pm

  Geoff B, I dont “reckon” property prices have grown at around 8%, that is what factual published data tells us. Some here make up figures to support their agendas, I am not one of them. Yes renovations, larger houses etc are an influence, but as most will tell you the value is largely in the land and thehouse is the depreciating thing you build on it…

  As for “Qantas, Telstra, and many other companies have returned, on average, over 50% in the last year to date. Also it is useful to note that none of these public companies required any expenditure by the shareholders to achieve these returns”

  True, and that is why timing is essential.

  See I am a Qantas shareholder. My initial buy in 2007 was at $5.08 per share. In the past 6 years I have recieved a cumulative $0.71 per share dividend yet not a cent since 2009.

  I added shars on the slide and my weighted price is mid $3′s. So YTD QAN may be up 50%, but at todays close of $1.72 I am still massively out of pocket.

  At the same time my property investments and owner occupied house in the same period have grown significantly.

  As you have done above, you can pick any theoretical line in the sand you want to prove a point, but that does not necessarily make it a point worth making!

• 742 Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype // May 15, 2013 at 12:46 am

  Matthew

  Finally something we can agree on?

  You said “timing is essential”

  Well now is not the time to be speculating in Residential Australian Property.

  Record low interest rates & FHB are dowmn 50% & Sales at 1996 levels (Yet population has grown 28%) Ouch!!

  Think about it 50 year low interest rates FHB should be flooding the market & sales across the board should be soaring.

  They are not that ringing in your ears you are choosing to ignore are warning bells.

  Mum & Dad property speculators forever the optimists

• 743 Frank // May 15, 2013 at 8:31 am

  Not Fooled, for a man who claims to be a property insider your lack of property knowledge is astounding.

  Care to tell your “followers” how much property will fall from here so they can time their market entry?

  After all as you say timing is everything…..

• 744 Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype // May 15, 2013 at 12:50 pm

  Frank

  Look again it was Matthew who was saying timing was everything . I was simply referencing him.

  Biker

  Still up to your selective quotes out of context I see. I said no such thing what I have said:

  “When we bought our current house in Woodvale 2002 it was $225K today after 8 years it is valued at $600K it should be $400K if we were to follow history? The bubble is between 2000 & 2010 the affordability & value of housing has eroded more than at any other time in Australian history. Go back before 1929 (GREAT DEPRESSION) & see what data you get 1910 -- 2010 why start at this point. Because it skews the data? I assume I am an idiot because I am negative? So could I draw on your WISDOM to answer the following question: HOW WILL PERTH PROPERTY DOUBLE IN PRICE BY 2020 WITHOUT WAGES GOING UP TO $200K PER FAMILY TO ENABLE BUYERS TO AFFORD A LOAN TO PURCHASE @ THE INFLATED PRICE & HOW WILL EMPLOYERS BE ABLE TO AFFORD TO PAY THESE WAGES WITHOUT LOOSING WORK/SALES TO IMPORTS CAUSING UNEMPLOYMENT TO RISE CAUSING A CRASH IN PROPERTY PRICES. Also History shows Perth property has ALWAYS been between 2.5 -- 3.0 Average earnings now it is twice this so is History showing us Perth property is over priced. Dont just look into History to see what you want to see?”

  Play fair Biker quote me in context & in full?

• 745 dogman // May 15, 2013 at 6:57 pm

  “Geoff B “…..

  Great cherry picking on time trame and companies .

  Point not taken.

• 746 Frank // May 15, 2013 at 9:22 pm

  Not Fooled my comment stands no matter who your rant was aimed at. Do I need to ask it again IN ALL CAPITALS or for once in your life are you going to man up and answer it?

  Don’t get all cute and stay silent yes or no

• 747 Matthew // May 15, 2013 at 10:53 pm

  Not Fooled to say I agree with you would mean that I have lost my ability to read a market, so I am afraid we remain as far apart as the many names you blog under.

  How about we make a deal -- you say nothing about over pricing of Australian property in any public forum for the next 12 months, I will do the same, and we will meet back here in May 2014 and see who was right.

  I mean, anyone with half a brain can see the market has bottomed out and the next move is up, but the world has earned your silence so how about it?

  Ball is in your court.

• 748 Geoff B // May 18, 2013 at 11:58 am

  Matthew and Dogman,

  No cherry picking here. Those seven companies make up about half the Australian sharemarket. Same with the dates. I chose 12 months ago to RIGHT NOW. Every Super fund and private portfolio would or should have these stocks.

  I wouldn’t attempt to pick stocks for the next twelve months. Some jockeys tip five different horses in the same race.

  I will however predict that the house prices will fall for at least five years using the half a brain that I have left. They tried to predict the bottom in Japan 15 years ago. Even with a mortgage rate of 1% and a bank base rate of about zero the prices have fallen 70% in the last eighteen (18) years.

  Due to the large amounts of money spent by rebuilders, extenders, and renovators it will appear that the median price will hardly fall at all. Unfortunately those that buy and then sell five or ten years down the track (without spending heaps in between) will be left scratching their heads.

• 749 Biker // May 18, 2013 at 1:30 pm

  Now we’re Japan…

  Vaguely remember Keen using the same logic!~

• 750 Geoff B // May 18, 2013 at 7:37 pm

  Matthew,

  I have a similar history to you with Qantas except that I first bought them when the Gov’t privatised the company in 1992. Also I couldn’t resist them when they were 95c recently. When you consider that Qantas has a Nett Tangible Asset (NTA) value of $2.40 per share the directors could throw up their hands and close the company down and all would come out ahead.

  It wasn’t just Forrest Gump who reckoned Qantas is the best airline of all. Some people judge an airline by the looks of the Hosties, the food, or the ticket price. The age of the fleet is the best guide and Qantas has the youngest fleet of all.
  Also Qantas is an ICON and icons cannot be allowed to fail (eg Holden).

  You must be thinking “cripes he must be old”. It gets worse. I bought my first block of land in 1971 and sold it in ’74 for twice its price. Now that was a BOOM.

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