Shareswatch Australia

756 responses so far ↓

Pages: « 1 2 [3] 4 5 6 7 8 » Show All

• 201 Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype // Oct 19, 2011 at 9:59 am

  Biker

  You say 6.29% fixed for three years? Where Link please?

• 202 Biker // Oct 19, 2011 at 10:11 am

  NF: “You say 6.29% fixed for three years? Where Link please?”

  Here link. Happy to help you apply, to add to your six investment properties in Karratha, Woodvale and Mandurah, NF.

  Apply here:

  http://ratedoctor1-px.rtrk.com.au/

• 203 Greg Atkinson // Oct 19, 2011 at 11:49 am

  Okay, this is just turning into a slanging match. This site is not for two people to enter into an endless debate. It is also not a site dedicated to the WA property market. So I am calling time out.

• 204 Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype // Oct 19, 2011 at 1:39 pm

  Sorry Biker but the link to loan doctor did not show a 6.29% fixed 3 year loan but a variable loan.

  Further more it was not a “Comparison” rate which is what you need to look at. This would make the loan closer to 6.92%

• 205 Biker Pete // Oct 19, 2011 at 1:49 pm

  My apologies, NF. Perhaps 6.19% for three years, instead?

  http://www.infochoice.com.au/institutions/SuperRate/697

• 206 Ned S // Oct 20, 2011 at 2:52 am

  Vacancy rates are 2% in each of the Brisbane suburbs I’m invested in. Ditto for another suburb I’m considering:

  http://sqmresearch.com.au/graph_vacancy.php?t=1

  No big hurry though. Returns are still considerably lower than I can get from cash in bank.

• 207 Biker // Oct 20, 2011 at 11:25 am

  Certainly a real shortage of rentals here, too, Ned.

  Interest? We’re getting 6.25% online with ANZ. Just switched all our cash to my name. Now I’m retired that makes sense, until the Missus pulls the pin. It’s extraordinary that we’re getting six times the return on cash that Canadians are.

  In WA, property has still outperformed interest for us this year.
  That sale in late March was definitely a major win. It’s only one example of a buy during the GFC returning high capital gain, but it does show (us, anyway) that even in very flat periods it’s possible to turn a great profit… . Land 16.4% pa, against interest 6.25% pa.

  We see our accountant a week Friday. This is the first financial year in which we’ll be able to see if the (new) tweaks we’ve applied really are the best we can do. My list of Key Questions has grown as the year has passed, so it will be interesting to get an update.

• 208 Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype // Oct 20, 2011 at 12:14 pm

  Shortage of Rentals?

  People feel comfortable investing in housing with a belief that Housing Shortages are going to keep prices up & stop prices crashing?

  This AUST GOVT report { http://www.infrastructure.gov.au/infrastructure/mcu/soac_files/INFRA_1211_MCU_SAC2011.pdf } … says the following on page #3.. “ Australia’s population has grown by three million in the past decade.” … so what you say? … Well in Australia we build over 140,000 homes every year & this works out to 1,400,000 homes. Now Australian Census data in 2006 said there are 2.6 people per household &this number is on the increase due to the high cost of housing kids are staying at home longer. Again you might be wondering so what? … Well in the past 10 years we had a population growth of 3 million but we built enough housing to house 3,640,000 !!! That’s 246,000 houses more than population demand required us to build. That’s for the whole of Australia.

  In WA our population increased by 330,000 in the last 10 years yet we built enough houses (220,000 plus) to house 572,000 people. It is difficult to see why there would be any shortage.

  Rents in WA have failed to keep pace with the rise in house prices which would indicate no real shortage.

• 209 Greg Atkinson // Oct 20, 2011 at 2:54 pm

  If the Chinese economy continues to cool and iron ore prices slide further then home prices in Australia will most likely move sideways or slip further back over the next few years I reckon.

  The Government has already factored a continued mining boom into its planning and at the moment the boom is starting to look a touch wobbly. Non mining related company tax revenues have already been hit and if the expected record high royalties from mining don’t roll in over the next few years then you can count on a government of any flavour making some spending cuts.

  So in that case we will would up with all major export sectors in the doldrums (education and tourism are already there) plus be a cycle where government spending is also being cut back.

  If that happens then I can’t see how/why home prices nationwide would rise.

  I am not suggesting there will be a crash, I am just making a few observations based on what is happening across the wider economy.

• 210 Biker // Oct 20, 2011 at 3:32 pm

  China slipping? China (almost) met its _own_ reduced growth target of 9.0%… with a 9.1% rate achieved. Reining in inflation, reducing the massive growth in wages and therefore production costs, are aligned goals. China is still calling the shots… .

  “…a cycle where government spending is also being cut back…” The reverse is likely. Most governments still favour… and apply… the Keynsian model…. ‘spend the crisis out of trouble’

  Keen was right about (just one) thing. In such an event, the interest rate would fall, perhaps as low as 0%. At that point,
  those with cash and significant equity would jump into the breech, buying property with all four hands!~
  (Look at BC’s ‘V’ cities… .)

  As suggested in the past, flexibility seems to be the way-to-go in times like these. All our best buys in recent years have been on the first day of someone else’s declined finance. That block we sold earlier this year had been on _one year’s_ hold for a Brit who finally admitted he couldn’t buy it. A (disgusted) developer sold it to us for a song… . A better example was the duplex block with _absolute_ beach frontage which, again, appeared on the market for less than 24 hours. We trebled our gain quickly on that one.

  Just as there will be incredible buys in individual stocks right now, there will be properties on the market, fleetingly, which represent amazing value and a quick return. Those waiting for ludicrous 50% crashes and sitting on their hands are unlikely to find or access these gems.

• 211 Greg Atkinson // Oct 20, 2011 at 4:21 pm

  Amazing isn’t it…a centrally planned command economy reports that it has met it’s objectives. The USSR also use to meet most of their economic targets as well..that is sort of how command tend economies work Biker.

• 212 Biker // Oct 20, 2011 at 4:55 pm

  Comparison with the USSR isn’t exactly appropriate, as you know, Greg. Did Russia even get close to the economic miracle which is modern China?

  I read all the anti-China media reports, usually with a grin. Take Avner Mandelman’s recent item in the Globe & Mail (8th October 2011) on “Chinas slowly crumbling economy”, which totally ignored China’s gradual, successful conversion to a domestic economy. To Canada’s south, meanwhile, a culture of huge pick-ups survives on 90c/litre gasoline, almost totally oblivious to future fuel prices, driving on some of the worst roads we’ve ever driven, at speeds up to 75mph. China will be producing the majority of the world’s EVs long before the US even considers the economic devastation of $6/gal petrol….

  We drove through many kilometres of desolate housing developments in some states… wastelands where $4/gal fuel had made it uneconomic to even _bother_ to drive to work. Infrastructure is crumbling, particularly in those states which are in economic crisis, or where it’s not deemed worthwhile to upgrade, because there are other more pressing priorities.

  If we’re going to compare, let’s forget comparison between China and Russia. Let’s compare the future-building of China to the future-crisis which faces the US, as its systems crumble; due to its past unwillingness to regulate, _control_ and punish those criminal traitors who pushed the US into this morass…

• 213 Greg Atkinson // Oct 27, 2011 at 7:35 am

  Well according to an article in The Australian today house prices appear on the way down in all major capital cities with the exception of Canberra. An extract from the article is posted below.

  Median prices have plummeted by 6.7 per cent in 12 months.

  The national median home price has now fallen for five successive quarters, marking an even worse stretch than during the global financial crisis in 2008, according to Australian Property Monitors’ gloomy report on the September quarter.

  Brisbane has gone from boom to gloom, reversing years of steep growth in its property market to lead the downturn with a 2.7 per cent decline in the quarter.

  APM senior economist Andrew Wilson said market confidence had been battered, with global economic turmoil fomenting fears of job insecurity in Australia.

  Source: Brisbane wins housing race to the bottom

• 214 Biker // Oct 27, 2011 at 9:17 am

  Greg: “Median prices have plummeted by 6.7 per cent in 12 months.”

  Less than half of shares.

  And rents are up as much as 10% here.

  A fall in residential construction has meant really great deals on solar hot water systems. Manufacturers and importers have been stuck with excess units. We’ve saved thousands, replacing conventional units… .

• 215 Biker // Oct 28, 2011 at 8:05 am

  New definition for ‘housing stress’?

  “And renters are most at risk, with 26 per cent in housing stress.”

  http://www.news.com.au/money/property/housing-stress-pms-struggles-to-find-a-rental-property/story-e6frfmd0-1226179004217

• 216 Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype // Dec 4, 2011 at 8:02 am

  Sorry Biker never happened.

  Not even in WA’s North West where there is an acute shortage of decent rentals do people need to pay 1 year in advance.

  When you make up Fairy Tails think about the details. Why would the Tenant just not park the years rent in a savings account, what did he get in return for paying a year in advance?

  Anyone keep score mark ZERO in the creditability column. Even funnier 10% growth PA or Rents doubling every 10 years. Come on Biker you must have thought this one through how much will wages rise to 3% 4% can’t be 5% because the RBA will put its foot down so your saying people will be able to earn the money from where to pay you the rent.

  Follow this SPRUIKER at your own peril.

  Tee Hee Hee nothing to see here folks a Mum & Dad investor sorry speculator out of his depth. Now tell the readers the 6.55% tax free yield you earn in a mortgage offset account. I don’t understand it & neither does anybody else. keep typing champ take goo aim at the foot.

• 217 Biker // Dec 4, 2011 at 8:56 am

  It amuses us that you see ‘Mum & Dad Investor’ as a slur, Nut Fool. It is _exactly_ what we are. We have agreed we are, several times. Why do you imagine you’re _insulting_ us with this perception?

  Your inability to see _why_ tenants make us very special offers, continually, illustrates your total lack of knowledge about:

  * Private rentals (as opposed to government housing);

  * What _we_ actually offer tenants. Yes, our rentals are better than nearly anything else on the market in a sensible price range. When we attempt to buy more, we find that we can design and build far superior _rentals_ for far less than asking price.

  * How much appeal our lovely homes have to interstate and overseas arrivals, stuck in a rental queue, with so little that is exceptional on offer.

  Over on PerthNow, you challenged our statement about rentals, asking how we ‘outperform’ the market. Let me first agree that we _DO_ outperform the general market. Second, we do not build anything we would not enjoy living in ourselves. Third, our rentals come with additional climatic and cost-saving (for tenants) initiatives. Fourth, our homes _look_ good. Tenants feel proud of living not only in attractively presented homes, but in very desirable locations. Fifth, there’s around a 1% vacancy-rate in our two key suburbs. The unemployment rate is probably lower. Sixth, we respond immediately to virtually every tenant request or concern. Seventh, we do not raise rents within a period of tenancy, unless we are very unhappy with a tenant. We have a reputation for fair dealing in the communities in which we build.

  Now let’s look at _you_:

  * You quote rental regulations without understanding them.
  So while you state: “…the agreement can provide for rent payments on a weekly, fortnightly, four-weekly or calendar-month basis OR ANY OTHER PERIOD as agreed by you and the landlord…” you don’t understand that last clause at all.
  Worse, you assume others don’t.

  * You’ve made outlandish claims about owning six properties, but elsewhere state that you ‘wouldn’t want to be a landlord’.
  Don’t you see how illogical and utterly opposed these two statements are? It marks YOU as the liar here.

  * You have continually made extreme predictions, many of them ‘dated by post’ about dire events and consequences. As these predictions eventually fail, you prevaricate… deny… demand links… then change the subject… . In two days we’ll see yet another foolism crash back to earth… .

  * You seem obsessed with ‘scores’ and ‘winning’. Several of your posts announce yourself as the winner. Winners don’t need to do that, son. (Nor do they need to crawl to web hosts.)

  “Tee Hee Hee? Fairy TAILS?” What are you trying to tell us?

• 218 Plornt // Dec 4, 2011 at 11:35 am

  NF i’d have to unfortunately and reluctantly agree with Biker, you have unintentionally misread part the clause or paraphrased version of the relevant act or regulations . He is allowed to accept one year payments.

• 219 Ned S // Dec 4, 2011 at 3:25 pm

  Had a slightly strange one myself recently -- Tenant has paid up to about 8 January. Namely about 3 weeks ahead of even the 2 weeks ahead that a good tenant tries to be. Don’t know why. And aren’t especially curious enough to ask.

  People do strangish things on occasion -- Though often for what they feel is a good reason. Paying a year’s rent ahead just could sound like a good idea to some if one is in a divorce situation and attempting to hide money from an ex maybe? Just as one “for instance”.

• 220 Stillgotshoeson // Dec 4, 2011 at 3:44 pm

  Whenever I go overseas I pay my rent in advance to cover the time I am gone + 1 month so I do not have to worry about it whilst gone or on my return, your tenant, Ned maybe just doing the same, covering him/her self over the christmas period.

• 221 Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype // Dec 4, 2011 at 4:24 pm

  Biker

  Name the fantasy suburb where rents will rise by 10% PA & where you claim people are compelled to pay 1 years rent in advance.

  Don’t hide behind the lame excuse that you don’t want to be identified, you have known I live in Woodvale for 2 years now & it makes little difference even with Dogman having access to RP Data & Mortgage data from the banking sector (ING Bank).

  How hard would it be how many loans would ING have in Woodvale. Point is no one can find out you just hide behind a lame excuse so you are not accountable.

  Not much to see here folks just a Confused Mum & Dad investor who thinks / claims he earns 6.55% Tax Free on funds he has in a mortgage offset account.

• 222 Ned S // Dec 4, 2011 at 5:02 pm

  “Whenever I go overseas I pay my rent in advance to cover the time I am gone + 1 month … your tenant, Ned maybe just doing the same”

  Quite possible Shoes. I did exactly the same re paying all my bills ahead the last time I went overseas for three months. (Good thing too -- The bloody apartment that was rented for me didn’t even have a phone line let alone an internet connection -- Despite assurances it would have both!)

  Success in life: A combination of knowing Murphy’s Law and The Boy Scouts motto perhaps?

• 223 Biker // Dec 4, 2011 at 6:25 pm

  You get no location(s) whatsoever from me, NF.

  I have continually advised every contributor to three forums to give you NO leads to their whereabouts, whatsoever.

  I’ve long suspected your own location to be provided by Her Majesty. Your talent for moving so easily between lies speaks of recidivism. You change your story like a suspect in an interview room. You have _far_ more time-on-your-hands than any of us, posting up to six consecutive l-o-n-g manifestos to a thread.

  Why else would you tell us you’re a Homeswest tenant on the dole who spends all his welfare provision on booze? Link?
  http://www.perthnow.com.au/business/local-property-players-build-portfoilios/story-e6frg2ru-1226080466625 (Comment # 39)
  I suspect the real story is likely to be far worse.

  Name the locations where rents are now rising over 10% pa?
  Happy to do so. Here’s a very recent direct quote:

  “Perth houses up 10.1 per cent… unit rents are up 8.4 per cent and 6.8 per cent over the year… The common denominator across Sydney, Brisbane and Perth’s strong rental conditions is that new housing supply has been insufficient relative to population growth… In Western Australia new dwelling starts have been 13 per cent below average.”

  You want the link? Have you figured out yet how to find it yourself?

• 224 Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype // Dec 4, 2011 at 6:32 pm

  Biker Link Please Yes

  In WA new starts are down 30% plus for a reason. No DEMAND!

  REIWA rents Dec 2008 $380 Perth Median Sept qtr $395.

  You do the Math.

• 225 Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype // Dec 4, 2011 at 7:11 pm

  Biker wrong again

  Rental supply is only down because smart investors (Not you) are selling & have taken stocks out the rental pool. To compound this new arrivals are choosing not to catch a falling knife by buying into a overinflated market that they know will fall, instead they are choosing to wait & rent lowering the vacancy rate in the Perth market.

  Post Christmas/ New Year will be interesting as investors either slash prices to get their sale or flood the market with their rentals they cant sell.

• 226 Stillgotshoeson // Dec 4, 2011 at 7:30 pm

  I have not bothered to look, however Travs/Biker has given plenty of clues to at least be able to narrow down the likely suburbs.

  Land Available (likes to build)
  Rental Vacancy Rate 1% or lower
  Prices around $350k to $450k level

  I would take a guess that many of the suburbs have 2 of 3 of the above attributes, all 3 would narrow the rang down somewhat.

  He has also given clues to his identity as well… those I won’t put here.

• 227 Biker // Dec 4, 2011 at 9:35 pm

  Why wait until Post Christmas / New Year for a result, N F?

  You forecast a major crash by _next Tuesday,_ 6th December 2011.

  Let me guess: false pretences, fraud, embezzlement…
  or murdering the English language?!~

• 228 Biker // Dec 4, 2011 at 10:12 pm

  Shoes:

  “Land Available (likes to build)
  Rental Vacancy Rate 1% or lower
  Prices around $350k to $450k level”

  You’ll have to give him _much_ more than that, Shoes!~

  This is a fella who, given a 56-word quote, can’t figure out how to find its source… .

  In a post (243) fraught with contradictions, look at his closing argument: “…investors either slash prices to get their sale or flood the market with their rentals they cant sell…”

  It’s a common mistake. Attempt to correlate sharetrading theory (intangibles) to property investment (tangibles). Property investors don’t set stop losses. Experienced property investors know their markets and create the flexibility needed to hold through long flat periods. Why would you sell a rental yielding ever-increasing rents, even if you owed money on it? Many months ago, anticipating rising rents and falling rates we described this as ‘the perfect storm’.

  In the eighties, we waited over five flat years for the _huge_ returns which ensued. Yes, a few sold. We bought from a few who panicked and sold beachfront lots for what they’d paid.
  It would be crass to disclose how much we made… .

  NO, we’re not smart, NF. Couldn’t make the millions you make from ‘commodities’ and ‘retirement savings’*. We’re just very patient, hard-working mum’n'dad investors who retired early, to live comfortably and enjoy extended travel.
  You’re the hotshot here, son!~

  * Link? http://seekingalpha.com/user/823973/profile

• 229 Ned S // Dec 4, 2011 at 10:43 pm

  The last 10 years sort of bolted when I wasn’t especially watching -- I’ll have to settle into a grinding 18 months minimum (25 years maximum???) back in the workforce to maybe balance my little oversight up? Damn!

  There’s just no timing these markets hey?

• 230 Biker // Dec 4, 2011 at 10:51 pm

  Mate, get your cheque book ready. In a little over 48 hours, mug punters like me will be _begging_ you to take our beachside rentals off our hands for 40 -- 60% less than we paid for them (apparently).

  (He’s back to puppets and neck-biting again. It’s known as regression to the mean… . )

• 231 Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype // Dec 5, 2011 at 7:12 am

  Biker

  What are you on about.Show where I said 40%-60% fall in prices. I never said it’s & you know it. In fact I think in the back of your mind you believe this will happen I think it’s called “repressed fear” but in you case it presents itself as “expressed fear” because you keep banging on about it?

  (Link & point to which comment number I say what you cliam I said)

  Betya cant do it?

• 232 Greg Atkinson // Dec 5, 2011 at 8:46 am

  Well we will have clearer picture what house prices are doing when we get the figures for the December Quarter from the ABS in February 2012.

  What we do know based on the September Quarter is that:

  Annually, house prices decreased in Brisbane (-5.2%), Darwin (-4.4%), Perth (-4.2%), Adelaide (-3.2%), Canberra (-2.2%), Melbourne (-2.1%), Sydney (-0.3%) and Hobart (-0.3%).

  Source: House Price Indexes: Eight Capital Cities, Sep 2011 (ABS)

  So at the moment the trend on an annual basis is down and I suspect the same will be true for December.

• 233 CraigR // Dec 5, 2011 at 9:26 am

  um Not fooled people do actually offer 1 years rent in advance in the hope it will show the property manager that they are prepared to commit to the house.

  I can’t provide you a link with this data sorry, we didn’t blog it as we offered the years rent.
  See in 2004 we had just moved back to Perth and really didn’t want to live with family anymore. we went to rent a house but about 20 other applicants were made. We offered the year in advance and were accepted. At no time did the Property Manager ask for the money to be paid. She even said that would not be necessary to pay.

  If you are so down on investing in property why do you even bother to reply to every topic about this subject? There are people out there still making a lot of money from IP’s. you certainly sound like the typical Australian that can’t be happy with another persons happiness and therefore have to put them down all the time.
  I certainly wouldn’t tell you where my investments were, why should anyone else!?

  See Not Fooled, I don’t believe there is a God that created everything, yet I know lots of people that do think this. We accept we have different views and live happily together. i don’t try to convince them nor they me. You have stated your case over and over, many times what you have said has been wrong from other peoples point of view. Accept it and move on. Worry about what you are doing and please, please stop trying to prove the world is still flat good day.

• 234 Plornt // Dec 5, 2011 at 10:48 am

  NF and Biker, both of you should take the higher ground and cease this as its arguably bordering on invective.
  Lets all leave the computer screens, get a coffee, sit down, relax and comeback with a more relaxed and courteous demeanour.

• 235 Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype // Dec 5, 2011 at 10:50 am

  @ Plornt

  Agree play the Ball & not the Man.

  Should make for a better discussion. After all I could be wrong about my views on property.

• 236 Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype // Dec 5, 2011 at 11:14 am

  Biker

  Your playing the man?

  Make your point or address the issue.

  You said I forecast a 40% or 60% fall in prices & clearly I made no such forecast.

  Now what’s this Dec 6th thing you keep talking about?

• 237 Stillgotshoeson // Dec 5, 2011 at 11:16 am

  One would think the banks are concerned about the current state of play in the economy or they would not have set this up…..

  http://www.perthnow.com.au/business/australian-bankers-association-launches-website-for-financially-stressed-homeowners-to-negotiate-hardship-packages/story-e6frg2qc-1226213812008

• 238 Stillgotshoeson // Dec 5, 2011 at 11:24 am

  Biker // Dec 5, 2011 at 10:56 am

  HaHa… You didn’t say it, but now it’s “…exactly the way you foresaw it…” ? And, just as I predicted, ‘neck-biting’

  Not taking sides in the argument, just pointing out, as I did about myself having paid rent months in advance.. The crux of NF’s long winded post was that affordability was around the corner… I see no direct quote from him about a % figure. However wages have gone up and house prices have come down so yes, affordability has improved.

  The issue now between bears and bulls is at what point affordability will stop continuing to improve.

• 239 Biker // Dec 5, 2011 at 11:26 am

  CRIKEY!~ Never seen _that_ link before, Shoes!~

  6th December 2011, Wayne G?

  “Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype Posted at 10:13 PM December 06, 2010 12 months time the US & Irish will be thankful things are not as bad as OZ … one Bubble at a Time or as some folks would say BOOM BOOM POW … ”

  And how bad did he predict it would be?

  “Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype Posted at 9:47 PM August 30, 2011: @ Too Easy nice attempt to Spruik the market & scare people into thinking the better buy now? What do you mean “Not Gonna Be Affordable” it is not affordable Today – Now. But this exactly what it was like in the US & Ireland then prices fell 40% – 60% & it became affordable. The days of affordable housing is (sic) just around the corner…”

• 240 Biker // Dec 5, 2011 at 11:37 am

  This is how it works, Shoes. If you’re silly enough to make specific, dated predictions and you get it wrong, you admit it.

  Take NF’s ‘I own SIX investment properties’ claim. He _finally_ admitted lying about it, after scores of denials. Why let some AH smack you about for a year-or-so, before you have that kind of admission _dragged_ out of you? But why not LEARN from it? Why continue to make stupid claims like “Biker, you’ve lost $400K this year…” ; “Owners costs will be up $9K in 2011″; “7% is really 22.5%”… and so on… and on… and on…

  Go back to Comment # 249 for an accurate picture of WA’s fall in home values this year. Now, contrast that with this year’s rise in rents.

• 241 Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype // Dec 5, 2011 at 11:39 am

  Biker

  You keep shooting yourself in the foot. As Shoes says there is no forecast of 40% or 60% it is all in your mind.

  The Dec 6th 2010 quote is incomplete & again no working link for the reader to check for himself. Put the comment up in full & a link & I will be more than happy to explain / discuss.

• 242 Biker // Dec 5, 2011 at 11:48 am

  I realise you are technically-challenged and the computers provided you are probably 486s, so I’ll _again_ give you the link, NF.

  http://www.perthnow.com.au/business/business-old/construction-slowdown-to-pause-rate-rise/story-e6frg2qu-1225960148535

  Shoes? An old biker mate from w-a-y back, who once wished me all the very best of health and mobility for life.
  Now _that’s_ a link.

• 243 Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype // Dec 5, 2011 at 12:38 pm

  OK Biker lets have a look at what I said in Full?

  Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype Posted at 10:13 PM December 06, 2010

  Spread Fear & Alarm??? … Oh please pot calling the kettle black? …. Fear & Alarm stock & trade of Property Inc … Ever hear ” BUY NOW OR RENT FOREVER ” or this classic “Prices Double every 10 years if you dont buy now you never will ” Fear/Alarm?? of course not that is just caring advice given to your fellow man? … Bottle Water Salesman ? it is Nothing like the SNAKE OIL liberally applied to the property sector bu SPRUIKERS INC … Wont work here ? … Oh yes it will … Just have to look at the length of your responses these days .. gone are your flippent 2 line remarks & quirky tales of Travel & Pirate Adventures … Now your scared all that money / wealth going down the drain ….. 12 months time the US & Irish will be thankful things are not as bad as OZ … POP POP POP one Bubble at a Time or as some folks would say BOOM BOOM POW … Ahh the good old days when Dogman still had his BOOM BOOM …..

  Comment 31 of 33

  The bit I think we are focusing on is “… Now your scared all that money / wealth going down the drain ….. 12 months time the US & Irish will be thankful things are not as bad as OZ … ”

  Looking at the above I see me saying nothing about 5% 10% 20% 40% 60% fall in prices? (I think it might be a suppressed fear that you have?)

  Can you explain how you came to that conclusion because I did not say it?

  Now on the 6th Dec 201 I said …”12 months time the US & Irish will be thankful things are not as bad as OZ ” the page was discussing “Construction Slowdown” & I was talking to the topic but you insist it was on price? So lets accept what you say & lets have a look at how I went either way?

  1) New Construction Starts in Australia are twice as bad as US & Irish markets so that a “WIN FOR ME”

  2) For the last 12 months Australian House prices have been dropping at 2 or 3 times the rate of US & Irish House prices. “WIN For ME” because on the 6th Dec 2011 {Exactly 12 months after I said it) someone in the US or Ireland reflecting back on the previous 12 months would have to be “THANKFUL” that their house prices are not falling as fast as they are here in Australia.

  3) “Now your scared all that money / wealth going down the drain ” as it turns out you had everyone reason to be fearful. Guess what Biker since I posted this you lost over $400,000 in equity on your housing investments. If only you took more notice of what I said you would be $400,000 better off.

  Now I dare say we will visit this topic again in another 12 months & still the US & Irish will be grateful things are not as bad as they are in Australia.

  (By all means save a link to this page to quote me in 12 months time I certainly will be)

  Come on Biker admit it I was right & we can move on from here?

• 244 Biker // Dec 5, 2011 at 5:05 pm

  Do you _remember_ making those two statements, NF?

  Would you like links?

  Do you _DENY_ having made those two requests?

  WHY did you make those requests?

  * Did you believe you had no accountability for lying and misleading others?

  * Did you believe that saturating the blogwaves with lies would make them ‘facts’?

  * Or did you realise some of us were onto you and you weren’t ‘winning’ as you’ve claimed so many times you are ? (Twice today, in fact… .)

  Is that ticking I hear the clockwork of puppetry and neck-biting… or the long-awaited countdown to Nut Fool Day?

• 245 Senator13 // Dec 5, 2011 at 9:08 pm

  No one cares who said what and when. It brings nothing to the conversation.

  Obviously neither is going to conceed so it is probably best to call it a night.

• 246 Greg Atkinson // Dec 5, 2011 at 10:39 pm

  Well said Senator. Around and around and around they go, where they will stop nobody can know Zzzzz….

• 247 Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype // Dec 6, 2011 at 12:27 am

  Greg

  I agree let the reader judge merit of arguments to date.

  Enough said by both of us.

• 248 Stillgotshoeson // Dec 6, 2011 at 12:59 am

  Biker // Dec 4, 2011 at 10:12 pm

  Shoes:

  “Land Available (likes to build)
  Rental Vacancy Rate 1% or lower
  Prices around $350k to $450k level”

  You’ll have to give him _much_ more than that, Shoes!~

  Near the sea

  I have had a look, Yanchep seems a likely candidate…

• 249 Biker // Dec 6, 2011 at 11:33 am

  Who cares who said what/when?

  One of the major issues we face in evaluating internet information is that it _does_ matter who said what.
  Hence if Soros or Buffett are the source, we’re more likely to assign comments more credibility, reliability and validity.

  When? Critical information, except for those who believe time-in-the-market is more important than timing.

  The fact remains that a bright spark with a 600,000-hit blogsite (and a serious case of RSI) told his wide readership (which apparently dwarfs your own, Greg) that by 10:13 am one year hence Australia’s property market would be in worse shape than those of Ireland or the USA:

  “Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype Posted at 10:13 PM December 06, 2010 “…12 months time the US & Irish will be thankful things are not as bad as OZ … one Bubble at a Time or as some folks would say BOOM BOOM POW … ”

  You cannot imagine my relief when 10:13 am passed this morning, without the four horsemen of the Apocalypse, thunder and lightning, fire and brimstone… and the crashing to earth of WA homes.

  It is officially Nut Fool Day. Property Bears (one in particular) won’t like it, but _every_ 6th December from here on, WA will celebrate another close call in the l-o-n-g list of foolistic predictions made by WA’s noisiest spruiker,
  a fella who has berated homeowners and investors for many years, most recently as Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype.
  

• 250 CraigR // Dec 6, 2011 at 11:46 am

  “Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype Posted at 10:13 PM December 06, 2010 “…12 months time the US & Irish will be thankful things are not as bad as OZ … one Bubble at a Time or as some folks would say BOOM BOOM POW … ”

  Not Fooled that does read that Australia is going to see a far worse crash than the USA and Irish property market saw when taken in context of the conversation at the time. Considering those markets and the state the Australian market is just now, I’d have to say you were way off. The same though as all the people saying the market will bounce back next month, no the month after, no wait could be 2099.

  the point is, your statement does imply that the Australian market is going to drop more than those markets did. Fair play you never said a date but people will always hold you to your word as you claim to be a property expert in that you always pop up spruiking your doomsday comments.

  you were wrong but take solace in that you weren’t the only one that was wrong.

• 251 Plornt // Dec 7, 2011 at 10:30 am

  Well, I think they’ve stopped? Or have I spoken too soon?
  This debate reminds me of two gumpy old men debating at the local canasta tournament.

• 252 Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype // Dec 7, 2011 at 11:32 am

  Plornt

  Hows the serenity?

• 253 Plornt // Dec 7, 2011 at 12:47 pm

  Lol NF. Hopefully the arguing has stopped indefinitely, people have calmed down and this isn’t just the eye of the cyclone .

• 254 Greg Atkinson // Dec 7, 2011 at 1:12 pm

  I hope so as well. I was getting close to using the block function which is something I don’t like to do. If people want to argue then they are free to put in the effort and set up a site for themselves.

• 255 Ned S // Dec 8, 2011 at 12:30 am

  NF exists to talk the Oz (and particularly WA housing market) down – From what I can see? And sees that as reasonable as there’s lots of vested interests that exist to talk the Oz housing market up.

  But Biker ain’t having none of it. Which also seems reasonable?

  Hmmm – I look forward to continuing to hear what both your thoughts are on things like global finances generally and bond and bullion and equity markets and inflation and deflation and Oz superannuation and things like GDP ratios to Private and Public Debt and yabba yabba yabba etc – Plus your plans for getting ahead going forward.

  But stuff like what’s been getting bounced round here recently is unendingly TIRESOME!

• 256 Greg Atkinson // Mar 13, 2012 at 6:48 am

  Well one thing that seems to be happening is that property prices are weak in many areas and there have been some pretty solid declines in others. Last year house prices on a national level posted declines but it’s probably too early to say prices are trending down or is it?

  According to this article -- Property prices battered: Top 10 worst hit areas revealed

  HOME prices have been slashed almost in half in some parts of Australia, with vendors forced into heavy discounting as properties languish for months in a skittish market.

  Read more: http://www.news.com.au/money/property/property-prices-battered-in-parts-of-australia-amid-heavy-discounting/story-e6frfmd0-1226297242759#ixzz1owRHvull

  I wonder how widespread the downturn is? I wouldn’t read too much into house price declines in areas hit by flood but what about other areas?

• 257 Plornt // Mar 13, 2012 at 8:45 am

  Doesn’t look good does it. This is probably just the start. Remember some areas in the United States went down 70-80%+ that experienced massive price appreciation (e.g. Florida -- esp costal homes). I know there are many real estate markets within Australia and worldwide, but I would prefer to wait until the correction is over which could take a few years. I think its unrealistic to expect a correction to be over so quickly when the rise was substantial and prolonged. Usually bubbles correct to where they began, so as a rule of thumb take 2001 prices and there is your floor.

  Historically real estate bubbles first pop in the luxury areas/Coastal, and then the dominoes start falling across the board. At the end you have some economic shock that forces higher unemployment, and then mass mortgage defaults occur, and a spade of panic selling and capitulation takes place; the dust settles and then it takes several years before people are confident to re-enter. History is rhyming again. Granted you may get a few gems early, but some of these properties could end up 70-80% down. I am not smart enough to pick the bottom, and will continue to avoid real estate heavily.

  This drivel should not be taken as financial advice. Seek to obtain professional
  advice before proceeding with any financial decision.

• 258 Leigh // Mar 14, 2012 at 9:13 am

  Historically real estate is a good thing to have simply because we can’t make any more of it while we can make lots more people who need to live on it. There is a claim that real estate doubles in value every seven years and it is generally true if you look at a 21/28/35 year term. A house I bought in 1971 for $10,500 I sold for $169, 000 in 1991. However, position is still everything, so if you buy in a flood plain, expect to be flooded. Real estate does work, but it is a long term investment and requires management. Sure prices are falling and those that have over committed and have to sell will loose, but if you have been prudent in your borrowings a two or three year downturn means nothing over the twenty to thirty year period that you should be committed to. Build equity and borrow against the equity to buy again. Over commitment
  is the killer, but like any form of gambling some people just can’t resist going all in.

• 259 Harry Lane // Mar 23, 2012 at 1:06 pm

  Let’s forget the heated argument and facts and figures thrown up by the bulls and bears and look at risk management 101.

  Best case scenario for a bull: the market manages to just keep up with inflation for a few years i.e zero real return.

  Option 1: Hang on: CON? Big drop, hard to sell in panicing market. PRO? I save the stamp duty I’d spend to sell out now and buy in later. Amount at risk? 10-20-30-40% of the house price -- let’s say hundreds of thousands.

  Worst case scenario for a Bear: the market just manages to keep up with inflation for a few years

  Option 2: Sell now and take a haircut. CON: I don’t get what I dreamt I might, I pay agents fees. PRO: I can buy back in if it doesn’t crash and goes sideways for only the stamp duty. Amount at risk? $40k for agent and stamp duty (all price dependent of course).

  So there you have it. If you hold you risk hundreds of thousands for little upside gain. If you sell you definitely miss out on say $40k (but even that is only a 10% loss).

  One option would bankrupt you, the other will hurt a little for a while.

  And this is based on an optomistic view for property prices!

  Pick one.

• 260 Greg Atkinson // Mar 23, 2012 at 2:45 pm

  Interesting: “Since late 2010, the Australian housing market has been quite weak with home values falling by 5.5 per cent across the combined capital cities since the market peaked,” the report said. “Buyers who purchased a home since this time have in many instances seen the value of their home move below their contract price.”

  Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/business/homes-with-negative-equity-on-the-increase-20120320-1vhe3.html#ixzz1puqizUCZ

  Looks like a 10% correction by the end of 2012 is a very real possibility now?

• 261 Lachlan // Mar 24, 2012 at 1:55 pm

  “Sell now”…if you can. Whether or not prices are destined to crash i know a lot of people who want to sell including family who have been sitting for a long time with little or no interest at all.

• 262 Greg Atkinson // Jun 23, 2012 at 8:55 am

  I have moved some links here that were posted under a post but are probably more relevant to the discussion here:

  Housing shortage all smoke and mirrors: http://www.theage.com.au/business/housing-shortage-all-smoke-and-mirrors-20120622-20szh.html

  Home owners staying put in slow market: http://www.perthnow.com.au/business/home-owners-staying-put-in-slow-market/story-e6frg2ru-1226404208969

  Sounds to me that we are near or at the top of the house prices cycle. There will be of course those who say property prices don’t move in cycles and they will keep rising but I was hearing that about commodities prices a year or so ago.

• 263 BP // Jun 23, 2012 at 9:36 am

  GA: “Sounds to me that we are near or at the top of the house prices cycle.”

  Then you haven’t factored in the near-doubling of rents in the last five years, reduced cost of interest, our rising population, or poor performance of all other income-producing assets.

  Your comment here negates your own claim that there are property marketS. I’ve no idea where we are in the ‘house prices cycle’ (nor would I ever claim to) but I suspect that those without homes suffer greater confirmation bias than those of us deriving comfortable income from property in retirement… .

• 264 Stillgotshoeson // Jun 23, 2012 at 11:50 am

  GA: “Sounds to me that we are near or at the top of the house prices cycle.”

  I, along with others think the peak has been and gone.

  BP // Jun 23, 2012 at 9:36 am

  Your comment here negates your own claim that there are property marketS.

  It is irrelevant if a dozen suburbs are doing ok when 2000 are in decline. (numbers for highlight purposes)

• 265 Greg Atkinson // Jun 24, 2012 at 11:08 am

  I see Steve Keen appears to be a lot more active recently and this article may be of interest to some: As the Australian housing bubble bursts, prices could fall a lot further than people expect: Steve Keen (Property Observer)

  Some interesting graphs & numbers but of course one could argue that you can’t really compare property markets across different nations.

  Also where is the chart of Australian house prices versus Canada or France..or many other nations for that matter? Sometimes both the property bears & bull seems to be a little selective with the charts & comparisons they use

• 266 BP // Jun 24, 2012 at 1:49 pm

  GA: “Sometimes both the property bears & bull seems to be a little selective with the charts & comparisons they use…”

  We watch Canada closely. Friends in Victoria BC, who own a nice apartment there, plot the market closely hoping to pick up a bargain, but prices on the west coast are buoyant.

  Keen used to be famous for his wild predictions, but he never figured on government intervention or China’s continuing rise.
  Now he’s simply our most famous tenant.

  Like the dotcom collapse, which pre-empted the real burst of technological business growth, China will have some hiccups, but it has not really hit its stride yet.

  I recall that after WW2, Japanese products were deemed inferior rubbish by western consumers. (Some items I bought during that period are still giving great service fifty years later!) To the present: We use three electric pumps on our main property, one as a back up for our mill, during windless spells. In 22 years, over a dozen of these pumps, all made in Oz, have failed. Recently I replaced yet another dud Oz pump with a Chinese XU1… at a quarter the cost of Aussie-made pumps. It pumps faster, cooler, higher and more quietly than the Oz pumps… and has the same warranty period.

  I suspect that we may replace more of our consumer goods with Chinese products in the (near) future, including our vehicles… and that as Third World citizens improve their living standards, they will buy Chinese.

  Not a good outlook for Australian industries, but maybe we need to build more quality into our stuff, or stand by consumers when it fails… .

• 267 Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype // Jun 24, 2012 at 2:22 pm

  Gee Wiz Biker Pete

  now your telling us WW2 stories.

  Time for the Nurses in your retirement home to review your medication.

  What has pumps made in Japan got to do with the price of OZ property.

  Time to get out the Sun old timer or put on a hat!!!

• 268 Stillgotshoeson // Jun 24, 2012 at 3:06 pm

  I too have a friend in Canada, he is in Vancouver and works in a bank and he says the real estate market in Vancouver is softening and he expects to see falls in prices, there has been some big changes in lending laws come through that will impact mortgages come re assessment time. My friend is one of these four..

  http://www.kickinthehead.com/profile.cfm?ID=20031229003223

  I also have another friend in Arkansas whom is a builder of custom homes, house prices have gone no where in 6 years he says. Not down nor up in the market sector he deals with. $600k to $1.5m range, materials are at 2003 prices.

  Japan were big on reverse engineering in the early stages of their boom years (like China). Japan went on to huge and better things. Further developed the APICS method in production, zero defect (out) rule and were destined to become the number 1 global economy. (like China) That never eventuated, costs got too high in Japan and manufacturers looked elsewhere.

  China too is now getting too expensive and already companies are looking to go elsewhere to set up shop. Some US firms in China are actually returning production to the US as labour rates have declined so much there and wages in China have risen (adding in shipping etc) it is now profitable to make the suff in the USA again. Some of the unionised shops in the USA that where paying $30+USD per hour anre now down to $12 to $15 an hour and people are lining up for these jobs.

  The company I work for has a China base, wages there have tripled since opening up. Also companies are finding that when they set up shop in China and want to leave, they have to leave everything there, China will not let you take your equipment out.

  Too many people have too high hopes for Chinas continued expansion and the flow on effect to Australia that would have.
  As Japan did, China too is peaking or just about peaked, will they die off to nothing? Of course not but the rate of growth will be in steady decline over the coming years and reach what will become the staus quo for them.

  As for SK, I remember Biker in another comment somewhere saying SK changed his bet/view. The bet was always 20% in a couple of years (lost) and 40% over a decade or so (still open) He then went on to say that it could be even worse and be 70% in some areas but did not add this to the bet, it was a generalised comment.

• 269 BP // Jun 24, 2012 at 5:59 pm

  Pumps made in Japan? Time to get out those cokebottle specs of yours, old timer. Who said anything about pumps made in Japan?

• 270 Stillgotshoeson // Jun 24, 2012 at 7:53 pm

  Need to work on your comprehension skills Biker, I make no mention of Japanese Pumps.

  The reference to Japan is in response to your comment about them being considered poor in the early days and went on to bigger and better things, like Chinese now is considered in some ways poor and cheap products, but “getting better” re: Chinese pumps are working great for you.

  Early Japanese, crap, got better and peaked.. over 20 or so years.
  China will do the same, time frame will be shorter.

• 271 Greg Atkinson // Jun 25, 2012 at 7:50 am

  I am struggling to grasp what the last few comments have to do with the Australian housing market so maybe we can drift back onto the topic?

• 272 Stillgotshoeson // Jul 9, 2012 at 8:36 am

  Melbourne is not doing too well in the current economic climate.

  http://theage.domain.com.au/real-estate-news/home-owners-facing-loan-repayment-disaster-20120708-21pkl.html

  One shudders to think how bad it would be if we did not have ultra low mortgage rates and low unemployment. Imagine if they were to rise…..

• 273 Biker // Jul 9, 2012 at 6:07 pm

  Greg Atkinson: ” Are there some signs of economic life out there or any hints of a global economic recovery… (?)”

  I know you’re always seeking positive signs of a turnaround, Greg. Property is often the first asset class to recover. This may help cheer us all up!:

  http://www.perthnow.com.au/business/wa-real-estate-bust-is-over/story-e6frg2ru-1226419803501?from=public_rss

• 274 Greg Atkinson // Jul 10, 2012 at 6:43 am

  How the analysts can make a call on the property market in WA without taking into account the slowdown in China is beyond me but it’s another sign that the mining boom mentality has set in.

  I don’t know if the property cycle will turn upwards or not, but I would suggest if commodities prices keep falling then it’s unlikely that house prices will be heading upwards in a significant way any-time soon.

  I also recall a few years ago when I was talking about house prices sliding back a touch that people tossed up all the reasons outlined in that article why that wouldn’t happen.

  Anyway demand does not always equal rising prices especially if prices are already high and people don’t have the capacity (or willingness) to take on the debt needed to keep pushing prices up.

• 275 Biker // Jul 10, 2012 at 10:01 am

  Goodness! I’d expected you to entirely believe the article and congratulate West Aussie property investors on our good fortune, Greg… .

  Seriously, we should all apply the same skepticism to the link supplied by an east coast contributor. Watching the video supplied in that last link, I was astonished at the disparity between the vidclip and text in that contribution:

  http://theage.domain.com.au/real-estate-news/home-owners-facing-loan-repayment-disaster-20120708-21pkl.html

  One shudders to think why an equally terse appraisal did not follow that gem… .

• 276 Greg Atkinson // Jul 11, 2012 at 7:36 am

  Actually Biker I don’t quite understand many of the doom & gloom articles as well. For example why would a owner-occupier face ruin because the potential market value of their home had fallen as long as they could keep up with the loan repayments?

  I also can’t see why a fall home prices would impact those who owned investment properties either as long as the rental returns were good.

  I never expected (& don’t expect) a U.S style property crash in Australia mainly because there isn’t a nationwide glut of homes (although there is in some areas) and we didn’t have had banks like Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac giving home loans to people who couldn’t afford them. Also you can’t hand the keys back to the lender in Oz and walk away from the loan -- that’s a significant difference as well.

  But I reckon it’s quite possible there will be some years of lower or no capital gains in Australia in many areas.

• 277 Biker // Jul 11, 2012 at 9:34 am

  Greg: “I don’t quite understand many of the doom & gloom articles as well. ”

  Among the bogeymen created by property bears, negative equity is a minor player, Greg.

  Possibly more useful is their assertion that we have oversupply. Australia’s history is replete in ghost towns where the vital resource ran out, where new technologies made it obsolete, or its value simply fell. Visiting these towns, you can immediately see scores, usually hundreds of empty dwellings no doubt still part of the statistics. There’s certainly oversupply in places where no-one _wants_ to live.

  While I completely accept your closing paragraph, I also believe it likely there will be major capital gains in areas where people _want_ to live, regardless of global factors like China’s prospects. Undersupply of homes, due to reduced residential construction… lack of land close to these centres… and particularly changing demographics… will mean steady growth in medians in these areas.

  Despite the huge number of Kiwis leaving NZ for The Promised Land, some of their cities are experiencing this, now:

  http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/breaking-news/no-boom-despite-rise-in-nz-home-sales/story-e6frg133-1226422383231

• 278 BP // Jul 30, 2012 at 5:20 pm

  Further to Comment # 667 in the ‘Australian Share Market Outlook’ thread: “IF rents blow out, home _sales_ and prices may increase steadily”… it appears rising rents may already be amping sales in WA:

  http://www.perthnow.com.au/business/bumper-month-as-home-sales-jump-24pc/story-e6frg2qc-1226438582892?from=public_rss

  Shoes: “…the catalyst for the coming decline in the ASX will be from overseas conditions…”

  Could add to accommodation demand though. There are record numbers of _new_ economic refugees arriving by sea, apparently… .

• 279 Greg Atkinson // Aug 8, 2012 at 9:30 am

  It appears Stockland for one is still seeing weakness in the property market according to this article in The Australian today: Stockland warns on property market outlook amid 35pc fall in FY profit

  “Managing director Matthew Quinn said that the property sector remained very challenging and would continue to prove difficult in the 2012/13 financial year.”

• 280 Lachlan // Aug 9, 2012 at 6:58 am

  RBA has left the target rate unchanged. I still believe they will have to cut it of course. They are caught between the inflation genie and a low real GDP, welfare state. But that’s almost the global status quo.

• 281 BP // Aug 10, 2012 at 8:41 am

  Greg: “It appears Stockland for one is still seeing weakness in the property market…”

  Often wondered if there might actually be property marketS.

• 282 Greg Atkinson // Aug 10, 2012 at 8:50 am

  There are of course property markets, but Stockland does have exposure to the major ones so for stock market investors it would be a bit foolish to ignore how Stockland is faring because some pockets of residential housing are doing well.

• 283 BP // Aug 10, 2012 at 11:55 am

  The _rental property_ market, for example, is going balli$tic.

  Stockland is exposed to a deteriorating residential construction market, primarily on the east coast.

  Property bears continue to assist us rental owners. We’ve continued to raise rents, _as leases expire_. Greg, your perception of property marketS may or may not include rentals. It probably should, given the extreme increase in these _dividends_; well beyond our hopes and expectations for income in retirement… .

• 284 Stillgotshoeson // Aug 10, 2012 at 9:24 pm

  It seems that AV Jennings is saying the same thing about their markets..

  http://www.heraldsun.com.au/business/housing-slump-blamed-for-av-jennings-295-million-loss/story-fn7j19iv-1226446663687

  The reality is residential construction is dropping off because there is no demand.
  Combination of factors, the FHBG brought forward those that would be buying now into an earlier buy period.
  Lack of confidence the economy and job security.
  Cost of living increases
  A reluctance to take on more debt and more willingness to save
  Debt reduction becoming more common among households

  My friend had 2 units waiting to be let for some time, a drop in the asking price for the properties was needed to get takers.

  Shoes, Sydney.

• 285 BP // Aug 11, 2012 at 7:22 am

  Shoes: “The reality is residential construction is dropping off because there is no demand.”

  Uhhh, you mean people now live outdoors? To a certain extent, you’re correct. The caravan parks are full over here…

• 286 Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype // Aug 11, 2012 at 8:12 am

  Shoes….. Your right despite a slowdown in new constructions Perth still has a 2484 rental vacancies ….. The true rental vacancy numbers are unknown because nobody actually have a accurate data collection set …. see this link it explains it in detail …. http://nfbpsh.blogspot.com.au/2012/04/reiwa-rental-vacancies-numbers-are.html

  Meanwhile Biker clutches to the dream thinking there is a shortage that will sustain prices

• 287 Greg Atkinson // Aug 11, 2012 at 11:36 am

  Clearly if Stockland & AV Jennings are seeing a weakness in the residential housing market then a weakness exists. CEO’s of listed companies are not known for talking down their company’s outlook for no good reason.

  If the Chinese economy continues to slow then 2013 could be challenging again for Stockland & A.V. Jennings.

• 288 BP // Aug 11, 2012 at 1:59 pm

  “Biker clutches to the dream…”

  Our dream (independence, comfort, and travel in retirement) has not only been achieved, but we’ve no need to _ever_ touch the principal (ie., sell any of our properties in our lifetimes.)

  Contrast that with that other fella’s record. How could you help him become a millionaire? Give him a billion dollars and let him invest in small caps.

• 289 Greg Atkinson // Aug 11, 2012 at 9:31 pm

  I found this extract from an article in The Australian interesting as it suggests it’s tough out there for many landlords.

  “Interestingly, landlords have yet to make money from the arrival of cashed-up but deposit-poor families. The latest taxation statistics for 2009-10 showed negative gearing still rules: after deducting interest and other costs from rental income, our landlords lost $4.8 billion. Total losses for the decade were $43.65bn.”

  From: Governments should avoid reviving the deflating property bubble

• 290 Lachlan // Aug 15, 2012 at 7:42 am

  I have not flipped any of my current investments either BP. I am in for the long haul. My business has started to look good on paper and in real time I enjoy it and have few competitors… so it is logical to leverage a little.
  I did select a block I would be very happy to live on if had to. It has beautiful views. But I am staying put here for now. My next dream is for the block I imagine retiring on. A few hundred acres of scrub soils and maybe a ridge thrown in somewhere etc ect. I like space and I can plant a forest of hardwoods to keep myself amused….and a long list of other projects. Gotta go. Cheers

• 291 Greg Atkinson // Aug 15, 2012 at 9:38 am

  Here is an article which suggests house prices in Australia are no even close to be in a bubble. RBA’s Stevens guillotines housing hyperbole

  Bear in mind that the author, Christopher Joye, tends to be always bullish regarding the property market.

  I found this quote by the RBA Governor Glenn Stevens interesting:

  “Scaled to measures of income, Australian dwelling prices on a national basis have in fact declined and are now about where they were in 2002. That is, housing has become more ‘affordable’. Four or five years ago we supposedly had a housing affordability ‘crisis’. Now it seems that the problem some people fear is that of housing becoming even more affordable.”

  I don’t think there are that many people who feel housing has become more affordable. Perhaps Glenn doesn’t get out of Canberra much?

• 292 BP // Aug 15, 2012 at 12:50 pm

  Interesting points.

  Certainly interest rates at <6.8% are better than the 9.45% we were initially paying for our last five builds. Incomes have risen appreciably, too, particularly in WA. Referring to side-by-side screenshots of income changes 2006 -- 2011 in our two main investment suburbs, it's the 'family income' area which has jumped markedly… around 45% in those five years.

  And prices have plateaued, even fallen in less desirable locations; and perhaps even at the top-end-of-town. I've spotted a bargain for $688K, but I'm reminded by my 'more rationale half' that two smaller rentals would generate more income.

  2002 prices? Maybe on the east coast… . _Really_ desirable properties in good WA locations haven't changed much since 2007. Rents have!~

• 293 BP // Aug 16, 2012 at 12:31 pm

  Further to that comment, David Bassenese (AFR, 6/08/’12, p.22) cited ABS data to comment “House prices are now only 4.7% below their recent June quarter 2010 peak.”

  While that same period offered buyers who did their research some prime beach blocks at remarkably low prices (due to developers’ need for cash flow) those days are over. In WA, the only housing bargains may be in the $650K -- $1.4 mil range… partly because homes in this range rarely deliver a return better than bank interest, despite better tax provisions than cash; but also because there are fewer buyers in this price range. Rising wages in WA might change that. ABS data appear to support a 9% pa rise in family income, in more affluent suburbs.

  Not the only factors in play, but interesting nonetheless… .

• 294 Lachlan // Aug 17, 2012 at 5:48 am

  It will be interesting to see how Australia goes with wages over the next decade.
  In China regular wage increases around the various provenances and municipalities, of quite some magnitude (percentages) are regular and state policy..so I read.

  http://www.thechinamoneyreport.com/2012/08/13/18-chinese-provinces-and-cities-raise-minimum-wage/

  “National regulations require provinces and municipalities across the country to raise their minimum wage at least every other year.”

• 295 BP // Aug 17, 2012 at 7:54 am

  http://www.thechinamoneyreport.com/2012/08/13/18-chinese-provinces-and-cities-raise-minimum-wage/

  I think that trend will continue, Lachlan. China bears suggest it will reduce China’s competitiveness in the global market. Offsetting that, perhaps, may be a gradual emergence of (much) higher quality products (as with Japan) especially in the automotive sector.

  Less than a day after I posted Comment 325 above, suggesting that WA _families_ in more affluent suburbs had benefitted from income increases around 9% pa, I read this seemingly contradictory report:

  http://www.perthnow.com.au/business/worklife/cheques-in-the-mail-who-got-the-biggest-pay-rise-this-year/story-fn7kjxsd-1226451786244

  While my premise may be true for the two suburbs in which we have most property, WA may simply be playing catch-up with more affluent suburbs along the east coast, both in property ‘values’ and rents.

  If wages continue to rise at this rate, it suggests we’ll see inflation re-emerge as a major issue, both in China* and Australia (along with higher interest rates, of course.) What we’ve noted, over more than three decades, is that house prices then actually jump, despite rate increases(!) And if that doesn’t happen, of course, we’d anticipate those wage increases sustaining higher rents.

  Our visit to the accountant reaffirms we have done the right thing (for us) and that we should now build another house, if the total cost can come in around $540K. I’m reminded that he stands to make _nothing_ from that recommendation, unlike a handful of shonky FAs who have tried it on and been tossed over the decades… .

  * Inflation _has_ been a major issue for China during its rapid growth. If wage rises really are ‘programmed’, it’s hard to see how inflation might fall, other than via The Great Hard Landing some propose… .

• 296 Greg Atkinson // Aug 30, 2012 at 9:19 am

  Here are some interesting points from Ben Hurely in the AFR today. (Please see: Neither a borrower nor a home owner be for the full article)

  The “rent money is dead money” argument is not as simple as some make it sound. If you borrow $500,000 for a home on a 25-year loan at a 7.5 per cent interest rate, you end up paying $1.1 million.

  The desire to recover that outlay, which goes far beyond the property’s value at the time of purchase, explains why many see steep capital growth as a right. A market without steep capital growth is seen as weak, not normal.

  But this is the problem with housing as an investment: people need a place to live. It’s reasonable to use the home as a hedge against inflation, or to build or renovate a home and profit from your work. But there is nothing heroic about using debt to get rich off soaring house prices or climbing rents. It looks like free money, but it actually comes from the next buyer (if it doesn’t catch up with the current owner)

• 297 Plornt // Aug 30, 2012 at 1:35 pm

  Australian building approvals MoM -17% v est -5%

  RBA are going to have to reduce rates again soon; massive AUD.USD carry trade unwind coming.

• 298 Greg Atkinson // Aug 30, 2012 at 2:14 pm

  I suspect rates will be coming down especially if the hard commodities rout continues. But even if rates are cut I doubt they will help the housing market much if the mining boom turns to bust.

• 299 BP // Aug 30, 2012 at 4:09 pm

  Greg: “BP it isn’t my quote.”

  Neither is Marv’s mine, Greg.

  Over the years we’ve read many such Hurls. Reread it and you’ll appreciate just where this bear is coming from. Like other hurls it reeks of generational discontent… envy… anger… and frustration… . Images of “What do we want? Half price houses! When do we want ‘em? NOW!” might well be the angry chant from the Instant Gratification Crew.

  Is there actually anything _new_ in this hurl?

  One thing I do appreciate is Hurley’s welcome recommendation that more folk _rent_… at a time when residential construction is slowing markedly and our population is still steadily rising*. Even the least-informed of economics students could see where this is heading… .

  * Over at PerthNow, some poor fool is on his knees praying for a mining boom collapse to bring it all down. None of that ol’ time religion here, TTL… !

• 300 Leigh // Aug 30, 2012 at 4:19 pm

  Greg, I think Ben Hurley (AFR) doth protest a little too much. If the banks are siphoning rivers of gold from housing debt, then Ben should be investing in the banks and getting some of it for himself. Why do we knock the banks and the miners when millions of us share in their profits?
  He also forgets that many who have investment properties got no government incentive to buy them and I hardly believe a capital gains tax on fifty per cent of profit you have made from money saved after you have already paid tax is generous. He also forgets about land tax. As with most of life in this lucky country it is a choice as to what you do with your money. He too can work another job and on weekends and he too can save instead of spend and not take holidays and perhaps he too can buy himself a home or an investment property, but it seems Ben has taken up the option of renting for life and complaining about it for the same period.

Pages: « 1 2 [3] 4 5 6 7 8 » Show All

Leave a Comment

Click here to cancel reply.

Name (required)

Mail (will not be published) (required)

Website

Comment:

CAPTCHA Code*

Notify me of follow-up comments via e-mail