Shareswatch Australia

Australian stock market commentary, investing in shares, ASX charts, market analysis & forecasts.

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Australian Stock Market Outlook

This is a discussion forum focused on the outlook or forecast for the Australian stock market & ASX listed stocks. Please feel free to share your view or outlook for Australian listed shares and the Australian share market here but please refrain from making buy/sell or hold recommendations.

Comments are also welcome in relation to the short-medium term trends for the ASX All Ordinaries and S&P ASX 200 and longer term outlook covering the next few years (or beyond).

For Shareswatch Australia articles related stock market and economic forecasts (guesstimates) please see our forecasts section.

For other discussion topics and comment posting guidelines please visit the Shareswatch Discussion Forum.

Note: Any comments not related to the outlook for the Australian stock market will be deleted.

Disclaimer

This forum is for discussion purposes only and is not meant to act as any form of financial or investment advice. All site visitors are urged to do their own research and/or seek assistance from a reputable investment adviser before making any investment related decisions. Comments aimed solely to talk-up stocks or to spread rumours will be deleted.

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894 Comments

894 responses so far ↓

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  • 801 Stillgotshoeson // Sep 19, 2012 at 6:58 pm

    100k Portfolio

    SBM 6100 @ $2.19 $13359
    PRU 3900 @ $2.93 $11427
    FML 450000 @ $.044 $19800
    BPT 7500 @ $1.33 $9975
    CDY 500000 $.017 $8500
    BKP 714000 @ $.013 $9282
    EVN 7370 @ $1.96 $14445
    PIO 50000 @.026 $1300

    Shares $88088
    11Kg Silver $12235
    Cash $864
    Portfolio $101187

  • 802 Stillgotshoeson // Sep 19, 2012 at 8:39 pm

    Have an order in for a Silver miner, if I get my price will update the portfolio, selling down a couple to fund purchase if it comes through.

  • 803 Stillgotshoeson // Sep 20, 2012 at 3:20 pm

    100k Portfolio

    SBM 6100 @ $2.11 $12871
    PRU 3900 @ $2.86 $11154
    FML 225000 @ $.043 $9675
    BPT 7500 @ $1.285 $9637
    CDY 500000 $.017 $8500
    BKP 714000 @ $.012 $8568
    EVN 7370 @ $1.96 $14445
    PIO 50000 @.026 $1300
    AYN 200000 @ .055 $11000

    Sold 225000 FML @ .045 $10105
    Bought 200000 AYN @ .054 $10820

    Shares $87150
    11Kg Silver $12182
    Cash $149
    Portfolio $99481

  • 804 Stillgotshoeson // Oct 1, 2012 at 4:10 pm

    100k Portfolio

    SBM 6100 @ $2.12 $12932
    PRU 3900 @ $2.90 $11310
    FML 225000 @ $.038 $8550
    BPT 7500 @ $1.30 $9750
    CDY 500000 $.016 $8000
    BKP 714000 @ $.014 $9996
    EVN 7370 @ $1.89 $13929
    PIO 50000 @.035 $1750
    AYN 200000 @ .055 $11000

    Shares $87217
    11Kg Silver $12242
    Cash $149
    Portfolio $99608

  • 805 Stillgotshoeosn // Oct 9, 2012 at 8:35 am

    100k Portfolio has had it’s first 100% + Gain

    PIO has hit 4.6 from an original 2.2 purchase price.
    Even if you bought about 3 years ago at 3.8 your up 20% in total, as good as bank rates ;)

    I have full expectations of 3 more breaking 100% returns next year,

  • 806 Greg Atkinson // Oct 9, 2012 at 9:13 am

    The market has posted some good gains since the low of early 2009 the problem is for us poor long term investors is that we are still back overall at 2005 type levels on the All Ords/ASX 200. So we are quickly approaching our own little lost decade as far as the Australian stock market goes.

    However there have been dividends, distributions and the opportunity to take profits along the way so all has not been lost.

    All we need now is a nice jump when we get a new government & another cut or two in interest rates ;)

  • 807 Stillgotshoeson // Oct 9, 2012 at 6:21 pm

    100k Portfolio

    SBM 6100 @ $2.22 $13542
    PRU 3900 @ $2.93 $11427
    FML 225000 @ $.038 $8550
    BPT 7500 @ $1.32 $9900
    CDY 500000 $.015 $7500
    BKP 714000 @ $.014 $9996
    EVN 7370 @ $1.925 $14187
    PIO 60000 @.040 $2400
    AYN 200000 @ .055 $11000

    Shares $88502
    11Kg Silver $12264
    Cash $109
    Portfolio $100875

    Sold 50000 RIO @.046 (reached .049) $2300
    Bought 60000 RIO @.039 $2380

    No CGT liability because still carrying a loss from the RAU
    Shares

  • 808 Greg Atkinson // Oct 10, 2012 at 8:06 am

    Stillgotshoeson I also still have some losses which will offset any capital gains this year but slowly these losses are being erased. One of the few wise things I did late last year was offload my BHP shares at over $40 which made me nervous at the time, but has since proven to be a good move.

    I would like to see the market take another dip, test the support near 4000 & then build up again based on some fundamentals such as:

    - We see further evidence that the mining companies have moved on from the boom and are preparing for some years of ex-boom commodities prices.

    - Another cut or two in interest rates.

    - A change in government.

    - Stability of company earnings. I’m not looking for big profits but some signs that companies have got themselves into a position to ride any downturn but are also ready for any upturn.

  • 809 Stillgotshoeson // Oct 10, 2012 at 8:26 am

    I don’t think we will see a drop to around 4000 before the US elections. Really bad news from Europe or an escalation in the Iran situation aside.

    Another cut or two in interest rates, I do not think will add much stimulation to the economy. The trend is still reduced borrowings and the reduction of debt. Unemployment is going to have an uptick
    so confidence is still not there imo to see much gain, if any.

    Stability of earnings, many companies are going to suffer further falls in earnings as we continue a recessionary type spending/saving situation.

  • 810 Stillgotshoeson // Oct 10, 2012 at 9:24 am

    ASX Sharegame update.

    Your ranking (at close 09/10)
    National ranking 126 of 8528
    State ranking 35 of 1962

  • 811 BP // Oct 10, 2012 at 8:09 pm

    In the interests of calling-to-account some of the outrageous punts made in this forum, let’s review just what has been ‘moderated’:

    BP // Oct 10, 2012 at 8:40 am

    Shoes: “…people who know little about shares or investing in shares should not be posting in a share thread…”

    People who flaunt their expertise, investing $100K to make $875 between January 2012 and October 2012 should _definitely_ be posting in a share thread, however… .

    It demonstrates that their retirement plan, living on less than 1% per annum, could be flawed. Of course if your view was that Australian banks would crash and burn in 2012, there’s a kind of twisted logic in play there, dear readers*… .

    * Gone all Sayce-Denning on us now?

    Your comment is awaiting moderation.

    813BP // Oct 10, 2012 at 10:04 am

    OMG!~ Years of playing Mafia Wars has paid off!
    You’re making a killing… .

    Your comment is awaiting moderation.

    A fella who hasn’t learned to spell his own name (Stillgotshoeosn?) makes silly predictions, posts worse results than you’d find at any racetrack… and is protected because he’s a property bear?

    Gotta laugh!~ :D

  • 812 Stillgotshoeson // Oct 10, 2012 at 9:16 pm

    BP // Oct 10, 2012 at 8:09 pm

    In the interests of calling-to-account some of the outrageous punts made in this forum, let’s review just what has been ‘moderated’:

    BP // Oct 10, 2012 at 8:40 am

    Shoes: “…people who know little about shares or investing in shares should not be posting in a share thread…”

    Some of the shares are up, some of them are down. On balance it is a break even. I could have cheated and picked the best and say they were the trades and post them later. This is being played by the numbers, what it is is what it is.

    No anonymity, no vague references to shares in a wonderful nirvana, near beaches and about 10Km from the holy father. Up there for all to see.

    What are you going to do next year when it is up 50%, 60% or more?

    What am I going to do if it’s not? Keep going to work, keep investing.

    What are you going to do WHEN the housing market continues to decline?
    I know exactly what you are going to do…

    Biker Pete “The good lady FA and I decided we had enough property and as we are getting on we sold down to just 5 properties, easier to manage and gives us more leisure time. Sold out at just the right time too, prices have come down a bit since we sold. Nothing like good planning to get where you want to be.”

    May I suggest getting yourself one of these as well, you’re current one is starting to get a little worn out.

    http://www.bunnings.com.au/products_product_d-handle-spade_2237.aspx

    ASX Sharemarket Game

    Your ranking (at close 09/10)
    National ranking 126 of 8528
    State ranking 35 of 1962

    Not a bad ranking for someone who has no expertise in shares.

    Greg, Please at least leave it up long enough for him to read.

  • 813 Greg Atkinson // Oct 10, 2012 at 10:50 pm

    BP I don’t care if he/she is a property bear or not as long as they stay on the topic. As I mentioned I have better things to do thanks so please stay on topic and re-check the moderation guidelines if needed.

  • 814 ozze_dollar // Dec 3, 2012 at 1:08 pm

    Whats going on with LEP. I thought they were to issue the new shares today.I am os at present so a bit out of touch.

  • 815 Greg Atkinson // Dec 3, 2012 at 6:38 pm

    I can’t see any updates on the ASX website so I am not sure what is happening sorry.

  • 816 Stillgotshoeson // Dec 8, 2012 at 6:05 pm

    100k Portfolio

    SBM 6100 @ $1.695 $10339
    PRU 3900 @ $2.30 $8970
    FML 225000 @ $.034 $7650
    BPT 7500 @ $1.435 $10762
    CDY 500000 $.015 $7500
    BKP 714000 @ $.006 $4284
    EVN 7370 @ $1.77 $13044
    PIO 60000 @.025 $1500
    AYN 200000 @ .039 $7800

    Shares $71849
    11Kg Silver $11620
    Cash $109
    Portfolio $83578

    There have been no trades made during my absence. BKP took a big dive on poor drill results. Still retaining them though. Drilling next year.

    Precious metal miners generally have underperformed this year.
    Fundamental reasons for holding them in my opinion have not altered so will stay the course into 2013 with an expectation of some improvement.

  • 817 Greg Atkinson // Dec 10, 2012 at 10:06 am

    That reminds me to update the Shareswatch Random Portfolio! I suspect the mining related stocks in that portfolio have also been knocked around a bit.

    My pick at the start of the year was for the All Ords/ASX 200 to close around 5000 which at the time was a very modest call, now it looks ambitious. Still there are plenty of trading days left until the end of the year…maybe if someone does me a favour and calls an election the market might rally up to where I need it to be! ;)

  • 818 Stillgotshoeson // Dec 11, 2012 at 11:53 pm

    My guess was 3800 to 4200 from memory on the “predictions’ thread.

    Part of me is surprised the market is holding up as well as it is in the face of poor numbers coming out in the data.

    Another part is not so surprised that the market is holding up..

    My data is telling me around March 12 things will not be very good on the ASX.

    As I pointed out to Plornt, we are in unknown territory and curveballs can throw out our “systems” so I could well be wrong.

  • 819 Lachlan // Dec 12, 2012 at 5:06 am

    Can’t recall if I made a call Shoes…I make so many ;)

    Worst call so far for me was TLS…holding off…should have bought that with both hands but I was waiting for another 10c of discounting.

    If we move toward 5000 on the indexes I will think a decent sell off (min 500 points/max 1400 or so) will happen again. Maybe after a fake out above.

  • 820 Leigh // Dec 12, 2012 at 3:38 pm

    Lachlan, TLS has taken a 10c haircut in the past two days so perhaps now is a good time to buy. It is still returning 6.4%.

    Overall I still believe the market is cheap, the only stand out performer I am aware of is CBA, they hit 61.29 today, under 70c from their high in Nov 07 and well over double their low in Jan 09. None of the other big four have done nearly as well.

  • 821 Greg Atkinson // Dec 13, 2012 at 9:32 am

    I had my eye on TLS shares when they were around $3.11 but was waiting for them to dip…what a silly boy. It just goes to show that timing the market is very tricky. I should have snapped up some shares when I wrote this: Stockwatch: Qantas (QAN), Telstra (TLS) and Onesteel (OST) back in November 2011.

    No use spotting a trend when you lack the conviction to do anything about it!

    Anyway I am still waiting for the market to fall-back as it seems overdue for a correction to me. But then again, I had the same strategy for TLS shares and look where that got me! :)

  • 822 Frank // Dec 13, 2012 at 10:38 am

    I have a Love Hate relationship with TLS, hated them for 10 years, love them now, will probably hate them again soon! They are an accumulation share for me and have a reasonable yield.

    Qantas are a cancer on my portfolio, I am happy that they are a small part of the value and volume and my losses are fairly insignificant. But I cant bring myself to sell them and I cant for the life of me understand why!

    Onesteel I have been involved with professionally for a very large part of my now completed career (back to the Tubemakers days) and there are a wealth of problems that will impact the profitability of this sector for years to come. Hills are looking to divest Orrcon, Bluescope are a basket case, our steel industry is not looking like coming back anytime soon I am afraid.

  • 823 Greg Atkinson // Dec 14, 2012 at 8:16 am

    Frank I sold out of Qantas years ago just before the ill-fated takeover bid. I sold way before their share price peaked but I also sold well before they slumped down to where they are now. It very hard (almost impossible) to get the exactly right so I guess I did okay from that trade.

    As for Onesteel, it would seem very hard for them to compete again the Asian steelmakers and I guess they will eventually be taken over by an Asian steelmaker don’t you think?

    As for the overall stock market -- well the Baltic Dry Index is of today below 800.00 and is down -54.03% this year. Many people will say that doesn’t matter but as I have been saying for years it does. Our stock market will not enter a long term rally phase with the BDI so weak and if the BDI continues to fall, then a significant correction across the ASX All Ords/ASX 200 is very likely in my opinion.

  • 824 Frank // Dec 14, 2012 at 10:19 am

    Hi Greg,

    Not sure if Onesteel will be sold to an Asian steel maker, a more likely outcome would be they go the way of Fisher & Paykell, Electrolux etc and move offshore prior to disappearing altogether. Be sad when it happens, but I think it is the most likely outcome.

    QAN are one of those romantic shares I hold out of misguided loyalty and a desire to see it do good. The only thing I can compare it to is being a member of Richmond!

    The ASX performance, mate suck your thumb and chase the wind really. I think that the number of quality companies undertaking share buy backs might be inflating the market a little, maybe not.

    I cant see a 10% correction unless something massive happens in Europe or Labor are returned. Equally I cant see it cracking through 5000 which I still think is fair representative value

  • 825 Frank // Dec 18, 2012 at 4:18 pm

    Cant see a correction taking the market back to 4,000 points this year Greg, perhaps if it stays above 4,500 then there is a solid case to be made for a move toward or just through 5,000 though and with an election coming and a return of some business confidence with the outcome, perhaps 5,000 will become the new floor?

  • 826 Stillgotshoeson // Jan 1, 2013 at 1:52 pm

    100k Portfolio

    SBM 6100 @ $1.445 $8814
    PRU 3900 @ $2.10 $8190
    FML 225000 @ $.031 $6975
    BPT 7500 @ $1.48 $11100
    CDY 500000 $.015 $7500
    BKP 714000 @ $.006 $4284
    EVN 7370 @ $1.71 $12602
    PIO 60000 @.027 $1620
    AYN 200000 @ .036 $7200
    Shares $68285
    11Kg Silver $10778
    Cash $109
    Portfolio $79172

    Again no trades have been made in the interim period since last update.

  • 827 Greg Atkinson // Jan 2, 2013 at 3:22 pm

    Well the All Ords finished up around 12% and the correction I was expecting in December didn’t arrive. Santa 1 Greg 0. I have posted a review of 2012 today: ASX All Ordinaries Index 2012 charts review

  • 828 Ned S // Jan 2, 2013 at 11:16 pm

    It’s nice to see shares have a good run. Things certainly have been sounding pretty ordinary of late.

  • 829 Lachlan // Jan 3, 2013 at 4:50 am

    Haven’t they what Ned? My inflation tsunami just never seems to come ;)

    ok bar the one happening on CB balance sheets. 13T reserves at present and gaining. Not that I am saying inflation is good for the real economy either when considering the process full circle. Just that I am betting on nominal outcomes not real.

    Greg my prognosis although allowing for a rally to 4800/5000 also includes a sell off from there and as I have said many times will be “possible” to go down to 3600…while Shoes had lower targets again. I guess am just putting out my idea of the possibilities these days because the markets are so confusing that nobody can pick trends…we are all looking a bit confused it seems. This is the problem with extend and pretend while it exists. It temporarily breaks the link with fundamentals and creates apathy and confusion.

  • 830 Ned S // Jan 3, 2013 at 8:51 am

    From my limited understanding of shares, one would not have wanted to be short anything yesterday Lachlan. I can only imagine that a bunch of traders got hurt?

  • 831 Greg Atkinson // Jan 9, 2013 at 10:08 am

    I just posted my outlook for the Australian stock here for 2013 here If you wish to add your prediction for 2013 please leave it under that post so we can see who was close at the end of the year!

  • 832 Stillgotshoeson // Jan 11, 2013 at 2:44 pm

    Matthew, In response to your comment in the predictions thread.
    I respond here as not to bog down the “predictions” thread with discussion that should be here.

    Why can the ASX not fall 43%? There are many who thought it could not fall 54% from peak, yet there are some whom are quick to remind contributors to this and other forums that it in fact did.

    The Spain/Greece reference is not “Australia is going to be like Spain/Greece” statement, it is highlighting that the European side of the crisis is far from over and we are in a global economy. What happens over there impacts the Australian economy, directly and indirectly through its impact on other countries economies,

    At the start of the GFC the world economy was a new born baby, screaming and seeking food. The economy nearly 5 years later is still sucking from the mothers breast and lacks the confidence to leave its mothers breast and go to the cupboard and feed itself.

    The still questionable growth figures we have seen in some parts of the world economy (including Australia) are built on the back of large stimulus spending. I fail to see any self sustainable economies yet. Maybe Iceland which took a different approach and told the banks to get stuffed and are now in a much better position.

    The debt load is still too high and losses will occur. Australian national debt is quite low compared to other countries but private debt is at I believe unsustainable levels.

    As risk continues to rise, investors will be seeking more reward for the risks (bond market specifically here) and will demand higher returns. This is going to add to the cost of funds and even if central bank rates are at zero percent mortgage rates will begin to rise again. As early as 2nd half of this year is not out of the question.

    You believe governments have it all under control and will keep things balanced and all will be ok in the future as we muddle through this.

    I think it is going to get worse before it gets better. Australia is in a good position to be a prosperous nation again and recovery will occur and all will be good again, until the next crisis. Does not change my point of view than in the short to medium term, people are going to be hurt financially as this crisis continues to unfold.

  • 833 Matthew // Jan 11, 2013 at 10:04 pm

    Shoes I respect your opinion, and more importantly the fact you are willing to put numbers to your comments and beliefs as opposed to motherhood statments and cookie cut rubbish.

    I am not saying that you wont be right, I am simply saying that I can not see it happening.

    I think many people could see what unfolded in the GFC as reasonable, but to suggest that our resiliance real or implied since is grounds for an equal crash despite the reoprted numbers of our market leaders, I just dont see it being that bad.

    Dont get me wrong, at the height of the boom I was one of the guys saying this can not last for ever, recommending people take conservatice approaches and reducing risk. A 20% pa CAGR is not sustainable, all “good” things come to an end.

    As risks rise, investors will indeed seek more return for their risk, but the normal relative safe haven is almost worthless (cash deposits) so the risk averse investor appears to be seeking the least risky, normal return. This is likely to be shares, or property given the subdued nature of both markets for a prolonged period.

    Shoes, I take offence to being called a bull. I think I am a realist and call things as I see them. If I thought property was going to fall, or shares, I would say so. I just dont think this is the case.

    Again, I just see another boring, unspectacular year in our economy. There is still money to be made though, you just need to find the right spots.

  • 834 Stillgotshoeson // Jan 16, 2013 at 3:51 pm

    100k Portfolio

    SBM 6100 @ $1.38 $8418
    PRU 3900 @ $2.12 $8268
    FML 225000 @ $.036 $8100
    BPT 7500 @ $1.50 $11250
    CDY 500000 $.021 $10500
    BKP 714000 @ $.006 $4284
    EVN 7370 @ $1.65 $12160
    PIO 60000 @.031 $1860
    AYN 200000 @ .042 $8400
    Shares $73240
    11Kg Silver $11000
    Cash $109
    Portfolio $84349

    Again no trades have been made in the interim period since last update.

    After a lacklustre year there are tentative signs that the precious metal stocks that got hammered last year may recover that lost ground and move up from here.

  • 835 Greg Atkinson // Jan 18, 2013 at 6:59 pm

    Well the Santa Rally has morphed into a New Year Rally as well. Could this be the start of a long bull market run? Maybe..and perhaps that started a while back but I still feel a pretty significant correction is going to hit the All Ords/ASX 200.

    My strategy for now is to take some profits in cases where I need to rebalance the portfolio and then wait for an entry point to pop up for some stocks I am watching.

  • 836 Lachlan // Jan 19, 2013 at 5:31 am

    I am predicting an intermediate term correction on the ASX Greg but it may be a shallow one. As I have said is likely approaching 4800/5000.
    Gold has share market correlations and de-correlations at times. I feel that the gold and silver bulls are generally thinking the bottom is in and although I am bullish long term I feel there will be one more grand slam down on these metals starting very shortly (1-3 days). Gold in USD maybe to 1595 and in AUDs to 1540 odd. I am thinking that when gold reaches these levels the ASX will begin to top out for the intermediate term. Targets would be roughly 4400 imo but failing that 4000 and 3600.

    If this plays out I will watch the downside action. According to the nature of that action I may begin to predict a breakout above 5000 and therefore the onset of a resolution to the debt crisis through a price inflation event. That may not necessarily be a free market emanation like global deflation or hyperinflation either. I have an alternative thesis which would be a more controlled event with maybe just some corporate and maybe one or two currency casualties. I would not discount the possibility. After all, debt:GDP levels are at unheard of levels and still the bond market rallies. Libor is fixed centrally, has been for years. Apparently the major finance centres love this game!

  • 837 Lachlan // Jan 19, 2013 at 5:41 am

    Some other things to consider.
    *In history the collapse of major power structures always is yearned for by many of the people but drags on longer than expected. I am not saying it wont happen. But when. Could be decades more.
    *Technological gains buffer living standards. For example there are robots that will reduce dispatch workers (transport) by 300%.

    Anyhow I am just keeping an open mind. Black and white gets us crucified. To own “some” shares and to at least consider a bull market is a fair idea.

  • 838 Stillgotshoeson // Jan 19, 2013 at 5:53 pm

    I’m still looking to see some pull back on the ASX early to mid March. Not the big new low pull back, not yet anyway. That is still further away.

    I think any pull back in the precious metals will be shortlived and the next bull run will commence for them too.

    Europe is still a mess, talk of Greece asking for more money as early as next year.
    I have doubts on the sustainability of the current improvement in the US economy and doubts on ours, with the plethora of bad news in Australia.

    More government intervention will stem the tide for a little longer.
    They will lose control at some point. Governments always do.

  • 839 Lachlan // Jan 19, 2013 at 7:25 pm

    “They will lose control at some point. Governments always do.”

    No doubt Shoes. I only question the time frames. In reality I do not think anyone can pick the true end of this super-power structure based on financial data. Not until the end it is imminent.

    As for gold. Any decline will be a rapid shake-out and recovery according to my theory. Little time to buy. Actually the US mint closed shop yesterday for ten days so unfortunate for the yanks if this does play out.

  • 840 Greg Atkinson // Jan 23, 2013 at 1:35 pm

    Well the All Ords & ASX 200 seems to be pausing around the 4800 level now. I wonder if the next major move will be up or down?

  • 841 Stillgotshoeson // Jan 23, 2013 at 4:05 pm

    It is not the getting to 5000 that will surprise me.
    Holding and then continuing ever onwards that will surprise me with out fall in the near term.

    I still expect more significant falls in the short to medium term as I still have doubts the world economy is able to remain stable much less grow with out continued government stimuls/support.

  • 842 Greg Atkinson // Jan 26, 2013 at 11:20 am

    This run is reminding me of the bounce from the low of 2009 during which the market rose from deeps of despair to around 5000 in less than a year. This makes me wonder if:

    A) I shouldn’t worry so much since the global economy is in theory in better shape than it was back then or;

    B) Worry because the global economy is actually just on a stimulus high and many problems are being dimply being parked in the too-hard basket for now.

    Technically speaking the All Ords and ASX 200 are in bull market territory now but I just don’t feel bullish.

  • 843 Stillgotshoeson // Jan 26, 2013 at 12:34 pm

    Lock in B for me Greg.

    DOW is up on monies chasing better returns than the low interest rates available.
    Commodities are up on stimulus measure not self sustained growth numbers.

    Euro zone is still a mess.

    Will be interesting to see Swans May budget with tax receipts down.

    Debt ceiling issues in the USA will surface again in a couple of months.

    I am still wary of the run up we have had.

  • 844 Ned S // Jan 26, 2013 at 12:45 pm

    Read a comment recently that went along the lines that it seems a bit strange the Dow is up 12% in a year when the US economy hasn’t exactly been going great. Which caused me to look at the FTSE 250 -- Yep, it’s up for the year as well (21% ?????) -- Despite the fact the Brits are looking at a triple dip recession and even worse growth than in the Great Depression apparently??? :

    http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EFTMC#symbol=^ftmc;range=1y;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

    Glad it’s you blokes trying to make sense of stock markets -- Way too hard for my head.

    About the only comment I can venture is that just maybe such things happen when you trash interest rates and print lots of money?

  • 845 Stillgotshoeson // Jan 26, 2013 at 12:45 pm

    100k Portfolio

    SBM 6100 @ $1.53 $9333
    PRU 3900 @ $1.905 $7429
    FML 225000 @ $.032 $7200
    BPT 7500 @ $1.38 $10350
    CDY 500000 $.022 $11000
    BKP 714000 @ $.008 $5712
    EVN 7370 @ $1.635 $12050
    PIO 60000 @.027 $1620
    AYN 200000 @ .043 $8600
    Shares $73294
    11Kg Silver $11217
    Cash $109
    Portfolio $84620

    Again no trades have been made in the interim period since last update.

  • 846 Ned S // Jan 26, 2013 at 6:17 pm

    Just a very general comment but does anyone else out there think Michael Pascoe is a bit of a dummy not worth reading (with me also feeling the same about Jessica Irvine) ?

  • 847 Greg Atkinson // Jan 26, 2013 at 8:53 pm

    Ned I don’t pay much attention to Pascoe, Irvine or Gittens.

    In regards to the stock market and trying to make sense out of it…well at the moment I am simply sitting back and watching events unfold. I haven’t done much buying for a while and have simply taken some minor profits when they have popped up. All in all I would class my trading status as inactive.

  • 848 frogmorton // Jan 26, 2013 at 11:25 pm

    Nor anyone whose opinion differs to my own… ;)

  • 849 Matthew // Jan 29, 2013 at 11:48 pm

    Nor should you Greg.

    You have another here who does, after all he quoted Gittins understudy as a credible source of commentary.

    For what it is worth, I place my focus on the actions of the market, not the people talking about the market with vested interest.

    As it is, from an ASX point of view, I am putting one size 3 bear shoe on, I need to see a correction of perhaps 300 points soon. Nothing major, but the profit takers will step in eventually our of dividend season

  • 850 Matthew // Jan 29, 2013 at 11:51 pm

    Ned Jessica Irvine is a very amusing economic commentator, I really quite enjoy reading her work, I just wouldnt act on her recommendations.

    Not discounting her education, if she was to start publishing work in the mid 90′s I am quite sure every article would have the rider “For Dummies”.

    She is like Scott Pape to me, good to read, good to ignore

  • 851 Lachlan // Jan 30, 2013 at 6:27 pm

    Just got my internet back after being flooded on the farm here by that ex cyclone on the Oz east coast. Hope Ned had his floaties down in the flat country ;)

    PMs are into their sell off now I see and the XJO has accelerated even faster to the upside so there should be a reversal soon for both still. I am not so sure AUD gold will go lower than about 1577 now because its action has been improved…. although USD gold still looks good for a lower dip. I think the Oz gold shares are in for a final dip now also with the small caps taking the brunt…which would be as usual. Those small caps will then be back to 2008 GFC levels when they bottomed 6 months ahead of the XJO. Obviously I never expected to see that. The big producers generally fared better.
    Things are coming together then.

    It will be interesting next to see where the XJO finds resistance and if it fakes a move decidedly through the 5000 mark to capture some mad bulls.

  • 852 Stillgotshoeson // Jan 30, 2013 at 7:52 pm

    Hope Ned and yourself were not hit too bad by it all.

    Watching with interest the ASX, not a buyer but might look to unload a couple of stocks.

    Have regidtered for the next ASX Sharegame starting mid Feb. Last one I did Ok, one before not as good.

    Market is going to be hard to judge over the next few months.
    Still thinking a sell off early to mid March likely.

    Will just see how it plays out.
    If the AUD breaks 105 YEN I might be a buyer of some Japanese currency.

  • 853 Lachlan // Jan 31, 2013 at 6:27 am

    Thanks Shoes. The house I reside in sits on the end of a spur so it was never at much threat but I have not seen so much water come up so quickly. Like a flash flood. At the peak I felt like I lived on a canal estate.
    Yen play sounds interesting. As you know i am a long term AUD bull at least until we have a significant leg higher from this point or after a quick pull back.
    I might be tempted to buy the share index next time I feel like diversifying out of my business. Maybe at 4400 if everything else looks fine. I am really keen to get a small fertile farm block soon. I will base my residence and business there. Also handy for tax and a fair store of value. They are moving in the last six months. I know because I have heaps of them stored on my favourites and more than half have just gone whereas they used to stay there forever. Have a big deal on the table now like nothing I have ever seen before and if that goes through we’ll see. Don’t want to count chickens yet otherwise.
    Still have the little block I bought too which I intend to put a shed a on for grass seed storage. I resisted buying the next door lot although they offered a 40% discount. Lovely blocks but in too quiet area for the current market

  • 854 Greg Atkinson // Feb 25, 2013 at 9:44 am

    Well the market is back up in the range I though was fair value a few years ago..i.e. between 4800-5200.

    The one big drag that I guessed was shaving 10% off the All Ords/ASX 200 was the political chaos in Canberra and now that an election has been called I reckon the markets are saying farewell Gillard & the ALP.

    So what has given the markets bounce?

    1. The market was oversold in June 2012 when the All Ords/ASX 200 was around 4100.

    2. The Canberra chaos factor has been removed and that has added around 10%.

    3. Lower interest rates have lured investors back into stocks.

    4. China -- apparently all is well there again as far as the economy is concerned but as regular readers know, I don’t buy into that view.

    I have also outlined a few other points worth considering here: The ASX All Ordinaries March Towards 5000 – Been There, Done That

  • 855 Stillgotshoeson // Mar 5, 2013 at 8:17 pm

    100k Portfolio

    SBM 6100 @ $1.13 $6893
    PRU 3900 @ $1.59 $6201
    FML 225000 @ $.025 $5625
    BPT 7500 @ $1.42 $10650
    CDY 500000 $.037 $18500
    BKP 714000 @ $.006 $5712
    EVN 7370 @ $1.33 $9812
    PIO 60000 @.027 $1620
    AYN 200000 @ .025 $5000
    Shares $70013
    11Kg Silver @ $951.91 $10471
    Cash $109
    Portfolio $80593

    Again no trades have been made in the interim period since last update.

  • 856 Greg Atkinson // Mar 19, 2013 at 1:48 pm

    What I am watching for now is if the All Ords/ASX 200 will head below 5000 and if/when BHP dips below $30.

    I have been expecting a 10% or so correction for a while and if that happens it would send the market to around 4800.

    If the market holds there then that will give me some confidence we can post some gains this year. If it fall much below that level then we could see the Australian stock market struggle this year.

    Also I am keeping an eye on the Chinese steel makers and the Baltic Dry Index.

  • 857 Stillgotshoeson // Mar 20, 2013 at 3:42 pm

    100k Portfolio

    AYN 200000 @ .017 $3400*
    BKP 714000 @ $.006 $5712
    BPT 7500 @ $1.375 $10312
    CDY 500000 $.038 $19000*
    EVN 7370 @ $1.47 $10834
    FML 1225560 @ $.023 $28188
    PIO 60000 @.030 $1800
    PRU 3900 @ $1.87 $7293
    SBM 6100 @ $1.27 $7747

    Shares $71850
    11Kg Silver @ $941.30 $10354
    Cash $493
    BPT Dividend $56 included.
    Portfolio $82697

    Sold AYN $3380*
    Sold CDY $18980*
    Total $22360

    Bought FML 1000560 @$0.022 $22032

    3:12:32 PM 0.022 491,560 10,814.320
    3:12:32 PM 0.022 509,000 11,198.000

  • 858 Stillgotshoeson // Mar 20, 2013 at 3:48 pm

    Greg @ 859

    I see support levels @ 4750 then @ 4500 and @ 4250

    Below 4000 means confidence is lost and last stop will be 3750 before we test new GFC lows. I do not see that happening this year although the situation in Europe is interesting to say the least. Contagion?

    Some are saying $70 a tonne for Iron Ore in the near future…

  • 859 Biker // Mar 20, 2013 at 4:02 pm

    Some are saying $1100 per ounce for gold in the near future.

    (Crystal balls, however, are cheap!~)

  • 860 Greg Atkinson // Mar 20, 2013 at 5:13 pm

    I think at this stage we may not go much below 4800 unless the banks roll over.

    As for iron ore, all I can say is that I have been bearish regarding iron ore (and coal) for some time and I am also not keen on mining stocks at the moment.

    I expect the commodities indexes to head lower over the months ahead and I see more downside risks then upside.

    A huge amount of money has been pumped into mining projects over the last few years which has ramped up supply to deal with uber-bullish demand levels which just doesn’t exist. If it did the BDI would not be stuck in a rut and shipping companies would not be scrapping bulk ore carriers in numbers not seen for many years.

  • 861 Stillgotshoeson // Mar 20, 2013 at 11:49 pm

    Biker // Mar 20, 2013 at 4:02 pm

    _Some are saying $1100 per ounce for gold in the near future._

    I hope it does, will give me a chance to buy a lot more at a good price, impact on the Australian economy will be quite low.. Sure to be sure nowhere as problematic as iron ore @ $70 a tonne would be.

  • 862 Biker // Mar 21, 2013 at 8:08 am

    Yes, these little dips certainly allow us to benefit, don’t they, Shoes?

  • 863 Greg Atkinson // Apr 3, 2013 at 1:02 pm

    Latest review of where the Australian stock market might be heading posted a few days ago: What could be the next move for the ASX All Ordinaries Index?

    As of today the All Ords/ASX 200 are in the 4900-5000 range but both could test the 4800 support level this week.

  • 864 Stillgotshoeson // Apr 16, 2013 at 2:04 pm

    The 100k Portfolio has not vanished…

    100k Portfolio

    BKP 714000 @ $0.005 $3570
    BPT 7500 @ $1.39 $10425
    EVN 7370 @ $1.015 $7481
    FML 1225560 @ $0.015 $18383
    PIO 60000 @$0.025 $1500
    PRU 3900 @ $1.415 $5519
    SBM 6100 @ $0.852 $5197

    Shares $52012
    11Kg Silver @ $714.9 $7864
    Cash $493

    Total $60369

    As expected the last few days of the precious metal prices slumping has been a big hit in a very short time.

  • 865 Greg Atkinson // Apr 16, 2013 at 2:41 pm

    Sometimes Still it is best to ignore the ramblings of those who put few ideas forward but snipe from the sidelines.

    Certainly the precious metals rout is causing some grief. Personally I thought gold would get hit when it looked like Ben was about to wind back QE, but obviously this is not the case..or at least I don’t think it is.

  • 866 Biker // Apr 16, 2013 at 4:25 pm

    Comment 27 February 2010:

    Gold Skyrockets to $6000 an Ounce $498000 ( I think $2400 or so)
    My guess on the share price is right.. $970000
    My guess is Half right $485000
    Somewhere in between (prolly closer to reality.. $750000)
    I put my money where my mouth is, and took the miners…
    You go ahead and buy physical gold if you wish..
    (Yet by 2012 he was buying kilos of the stuff… )

    Comment 4 March 2010:

    400000 CTO @ .085 $34000
    400000 CTO @ .10 $40000

    hmmm not bad return on a $34000 house in barely 2 weeks
    Yep I am so I decided to by houses..

  • 867 Biker // Apr 16, 2013 at 4:58 pm

    The original portfolio:

    “My Gold Mininer positions are..

    Citigold 400000 shares @8.5 cents
    Lihir Gold 10000 @$2.98 (down a bit at the moment)
    Gold One 100000 shares @28.5 cents

    Over the next 5 years I expect Citigold to hit $1.50
    Lihir to hit around $7
    Gold One to go around $3″

    Update, please.

  • 868 Stillgotshoeson // Apr 16, 2013 at 7:27 pm

    “Over the next 5 years”

    Come back then…

  • 869 Biker // Apr 16, 2013 at 10:04 pm

    You’re running out of time, Stillgotshoe-son. You’re supposed to be retired next year, living off these immense profits… .

    By my count, you’re also running out of capital. ;)

  • 870 Stillgotshoeson // Apr 16, 2013 at 11:15 pm

    As I have said before if things go slightly off plan and I retire at 50 instead, so be it…

    I’m still working, money coming in every month, dividend paying shares in the portfolio as well and not ons cent in the portfolio I need to access for any reason.

    Using the very same argument you put forward on property owners in regards to a falling property price environment.. don’t sell.. They still have their property.. I still have my shares, they will go up again.

    Some people, like yourself can not stomach share investment due to the volatility.. they see red arrows on their trading page and think.. “oh noes, I have lost all this money” with out stopping to think of the fundamentals.

    Gold is up $24.70 (1.83%) at time of writing this and Silver $0.72 (3.17%)

    (Edited by Admin)

  • 871 Greg Atkinson // Apr 17, 2013 at 11:39 am

    Some people just can’t grasp the concept of long term investing Still..best to move on which leads me to thinking about where the Australian stock market will be at the end of the year.

    I see no reason to change my original forecast from January and still expect the All Ords/ASX 200 to finish in the 4800-5200 range.

    But could we see some major swings out of that range that will be worth jumping into?

  • 872 Stillgotshoeson // Apr 17, 2013 at 12:24 pm

    The coffee shop and dividends are netting me over 30k a year which is higher than the Old age pension so I am already doing better than many pensioners. Certainly not running out of capital. ;)

    “But could we see some major swings out of that range that will be worth jumping into?”

    I think we will see continued volatility for some time Greg.

    The “we could have 5 more years of this” comment I made last year or the year before is looking more and more likely I think with the continued trouble abroad and our own brewing here,

    Continued budget shortfalls, a good chance our car manufacturing industry vanishing. More resources coming online in other (cheaper) countries…

    (Edited by Admin)

  • 873 Matthew // Apr 17, 2013 at 2:32 pm

    Many things confuse me Greg, one of them is people aiming to retire in their 40′s. I have a mate determined to retire at 40, he has made a string of stupid high risk financial decisions trying to get there and at the age of 35 with 5 years left, he needs to generate around $1.5m per annum in surplus cash per annum in order to get there (pay his debts and accumulate adequate wealth)…… I am confident he will be working at 65!

    I think 3-5 years of low growth in Australia is a real possibility. The glass half empty brigade see this as an opportunity to cry death, destruction and misery. I see it as a once in a generation opportunity accumulate and get in position before the next very real upswing in the markets (share & property).

    I genuinely anticipate an 85% increase in my net wealth over the next 7 years as a result of accumulations I have made / contintue to make over the past 3 years.

    On that I could very comfortably retire at 45, but I will probably keep working until 60, after all there is only so much golf a man can play and so many days to hunt fish……

  • 874 Matthew // Apr 17, 2013 at 2:48 pm

    I must be missing something here, I am not having a go Shoes, I am trying to follow this but admit I have only read this page of comments.

    If I read correctly you purchased in 2010:

    CitiGold for 8.5c and predicted it would go to $1.50 in 5 years (trading today at 5.4c)

    Gold One at 28.5c and predicted it would for to $3 (trading at 17.5c today)

    You are also saying that the market could get down to (from memory) 3,000 points in the next 3 years.

    If I am reading this right, you obviously need to abandon one of these predictions? I cant see how a 40% crash in the wider market will support a 3000% increase in what is on face value a speculative share in the same timeframe?

    There is a bit of Wayne Swan economics to these 2 principles if I am interpreting it correctly.

    If you still think these shares are going to meet your prediction, then I am going to do some reasearch into them and look to buy a few for the ride, but you dont see a Sandfire on the ASX everyday…

  • 875 frogmorton // Apr 17, 2013 at 9:31 pm

    While a return of that magnitude seems unlikely, Mathew, Stillgotshoeson has attained high status Australia-wide:

    Sharegame update:

    Your ranking (at close 09/10)
    National ranking 126 of 8528
    State ranking 35 of 1962

  • 876 Matthew // Apr 18, 2013 at 1:46 pm

    My question does not relate to a mans ability to participate in an online investing game against 0.04% of the population with differing abilities, education or enthusiasm 3 years ago, I am simply trying to understand how two fundamentally different market opinions can simultaneously co-exist, and specifically if he still believes in the “price peaks” predicted in those specific stocks.

    There was an article in the business section of yesterdays West basically saying low cap gold stocks will disappear into the ether in the coming weeks / months with some having less than $100k in capital and one only $2k in the bank, and with the low prices no appetite from investors to wade into any capital raisings.

    I havent had the time to do any research as yet, but if these companies are in that space, then their future does not look that rosey.

  • 877 frogmorton // Apr 18, 2013 at 3:01 pm

    Intrigued by the figures you presented, I glanced through some of Stillgotshoesons targets.

    He is ambitious to be expecting FML to reach 15c. He appears to already be in the red around seven thousand dollars on that trade alone, having paid $.054.

  • 878 frogmorton // Apr 18, 2013 at 3:16 pm

    From its current value, FML would need to appreciate 940X to achieve that target.

  • 879 Biker // Apr 18, 2013 at 3:51 pm

    Matthew: “…one only $2k in the bank…”

    Hell’s Bells, Shoes. Race in and _make_ them give it back!~

  • 880 Stillgotshoeson // Apr 18, 2013 at 7:41 pm

    Biker aka frogmorton,

    “frogmorton // Apr 18, 2013 at 3:16 pm

    From its current value, FML would need to appreciate 940X to achieve that target.”

    “frogmorton // Apr 18, 2013 at 3:01 pm

    Intrigued by the figures you presented, I glanced through some of Stillgotshoesons targets.

    He is ambitious to be expecting FML to reach 15c. He appears to already be in the red around seven thousand dollars on that trade alone, having paid $.054.”

    Average buy price for FML in the Portfolio is $0.0263 not $0.054

    They only need to go up 9.4 times current price to get to $0.15 not 940X

    If they achieve this before the end of 2015 (5 years) the profit will be circa $150000 before tax, 50% tax free. So CGT will be about $20k so an after tax profit of $130000k approx.

    The portfolio is actually about $12k down on that trade..

  • 881 Greg Atkinson // Apr 18, 2013 at 8:07 pm

    …and the topic of this discussion is “Australian Stock Market Outlook”.

    Stillgotshoeson posts portfolio updates which reflect how the market is going…personally I find them interesting.

    There is also disclaimer at the top of the page which anyone over about the age of ten could comprehend -- so I am not sure why a few people seem to think they add value by just sniping from the sidelines.

    Anyway back onto the topic at hand…the miners got hit hard again today with BHP just holding above $30. So over the next few weeks we may seen an entry point pop up for braver investors who feel like venturing into some blue-chip mining stocks.

  • 882 Lachlan // Apr 18, 2013 at 8:22 pm

    It seems crazy that smaller cap gold shares which have the wind of the gold bull market behind them the last 10 years have been going down for 15 years or more. I hope they don’t go out the back door but even though my shares are down terribly I bought them in the bowels of a bear market to begin with. They were historically very cheap then even though they have smashed further since. They are only small part of my portfolio and I bought them to hold to the bitter end…no good changing your mind when they are this cheap. Sell low? They are long term bets like everything else. Market timing might be fun but I can’t make a living out of it…in this current day and age. It’s so volatile and divorced from reality no matter where you look. eg Abe says lets target 2% and gold goes down 10%.

    Coffee shop passive income sounds like a good deal Shoes.

  • 883 Matthew // Apr 18, 2013 at 9:52 pm

    Greg: “so I am not sure why a few people seem to think they add value by just sniping from the sidelines.”

    If that was aimed at me Greg that was certainly not my intention. I have a clear issue with the extremist idiocy of one of your posters who drew me to this site, and I am bound to continue to refute him in the future, but my question above is genuine and I really would like an answer.

    I have said before that I have no interest in Gold. Given I hold significant supply agreements with KCGM, Barrick, Newmont and BHPB Olympic Dam for some rason it has never entered my portfolio. In what is an otherwise balanced portfolio it is the glaring ommission, and with the recent correction I am considering an entry.

    As to the question I posed, an analogy if I may. Almost every Saturday no matter where I am in the world you will find me at the track, and the most common place you will find me is the Bookies ring. If a guy tips me a horse paying $50 and follows that up with a sizeable bet of his own on it, I will grab the form guide and have a look. If it has finished 30 lengths last its past 4 starts I will laugh, back the horse I have picked and go grab a beer. If the form looks reasonable I will have a bet on it with everything to gain and comparatively little to lose.

    My question to Shoes is just this. He has said that the market could go 3,000, and he has said these shares could be that $50 horse. I just want to know if he still thinks they will get there. If he does, I will pull out the form guide and do some research. If he does not, I am a busy man, I will stick to the $3 favourite and not waste my time reading.

  • 884 Stillgotshoeson // Apr 19, 2013 at 12:36 pm

    Matthew // Apr 18, 2013 at 9:52 pm

    “My question to Shoes is just this. He has said that the market could go 3,000, and he has said these shares could be that $50 horse. I just want to know if he still thinks they will get there. If he does, I will pull out the form guide and do some research. If he does not, I am a busy man, I will stick to the $3 favourite and not waste my time reading.”

    Yes, I do believe that the ASX going to 3000 or below is still a possibility whilst this global economic situation continues.

    It fell 54%, another 50% fall therefore is still a possibility.
    If we can gather some momentum and get past 6000 then I might reconsider how low we may go again but for now I do not discount the possibility.

    Under the terms of the blog I can not promote a share or recommend any buy/sell. My postings are opinions and should not be taken as recommendations. People should always do their own research before investing.

    Greg has been running the random portfolio for 5 or so years now and not long after I became a contributor to the forum I decided to put up a portfolio too. The portfolio is not advice, nor should it be taken as such.

    I will however talk about 1 share in the portfolio and why I have taken a larger position percentage wise in it than I would otherwise do in real life and why I have “traded it” so to speak in the portfolio. This share is FML (as it has been brought up)
    Again this is not advice it is just my opinion and actions with the portfolio regarding FML to date.

    FML are a fairly high cost producer and they were on my personal watch list for some time but at the 8 to 10 cent range I thought them a little too pricey. They have strong prospects for the future with some potential high grade zones needing further exploration/testing.

    They became a buy target into the mid 5′s and on any weakness below that. They had very good support at those levels for quite some time. Allowing a 20% movement into the low to mid 4′s as a low point.

    They were put into the portfolio and at one time reached 450000 at an average of around 4.5 cents. News of the funding deal from Chinese interests made me sell 1/2 the stake for around cost as I thought the share price would come down on the dilution aspect and I could rebuy more at a lower price. Which was done, 1000560 at $0.022 cents to be precise. Giving the portfolio 1225560 at an average of $0.0263. They now have over $200million in cash to fund the exploration of the 4 main high grade zones. This is a good position to be in. The share dilution is the price paid for a healthy bank balance and bringing forward drilling on the prospective sites.

    Share consolidation will no doubt occur in the future but we will wait and see. Potential for a capital return from the excess cash if results are good in a short term.

    Despite the gold price being smashed down at the moment, I believe economic conditions will lead to a higher gold price.

    Potential upside for FML I believe made it worth the risk to designate such a large cash position of the 100k portfolio onto 1 stock.

    I personally hold them in my own portfolio but they make up less than 5% of my total portfolio. No matter how much I like a stock I never go big on it with my money.

  • 885 Biker // Apr 19, 2013 at 8:42 pm

    Jeez… protracted silence….

    If anyone’s waiting for me to snipe-from-the sidelines, get a life. :)

    What Shoes has posted is a remarkably generous analysis and an impressive set of figures, which should encourage anyone who shares his world-view. But why set a sell at a mere 15c? If gold really is the answer to the chaos some perceive ahead, set the bar higher… say 30c… and double your money…

    Watched FML’s price with interest today, expecting to hear a bostonlike stampede as TBs rang their brokers with buy orders. Can you beat city hall? No-one could ever doubt your guts, Shoes, but how will all this end?!

  • 886 Stillgotshoeson // Apr 20, 2013 at 2:22 pm

    100k Portfolio

    BKP 714000 @ $0.005 $3570
    BPT 7500 @ $1.375 $10312
    EVN 7370 @ $0.93 $6854
    FML 1225560 @ $0.016 $19609
    PIO 60000 @$0.025 $1500
    PRU 3900 @ $1.36 $5304
    SBM 6100 @ $0.705 $4300

    Shares $51449
    11Kg Silver @ $778.62 $8565
    Cash $493

    Total $60507

  • 887 Stillgotshoeson // Apr 25, 2013 at 9:59 pm

    Biker // Apr 19, 2013 at 8:42 pm

    “Jeez… protracted silence….”

    I thought the same, at the very least a ‘thanks for your sharing your view shoes, I agree/disagree with the view you put forward and will watch with great interest how your assesment plays out” might have been forth coming…

    “What Shoes has posted is a remarkably generous analysis and an impressive set of figures, ……. No-one could ever doubt your guts, Shoes, but how will all this end?!

    I don’t think so, it real terms against my asset base the portfolio is only a small percentage, easily within the bounds of what one could “risk” on speculative plays.

    The drop is about 3 months gross pay, averaged across lifetime earnings is not a significant amount. As for how will it all end.. _WE_ will find out, won’t _we_?

    The 100k portfolio started 10-01-2012, interesting to see where it will be at in January 2017.. (5 years)

  • 888 Biker // Apr 26, 2013 at 7:35 pm

    “…interesting to see where it will be at in January 2017.. (5 years)…”

    Long, long ago, I credited you with the very rare attribute of disclosing your moves-in-advance. Moreover, I complimented you on your honesty.

    While I believe you’re utterly wrong… and I’ll watch with interest the rise-and-fall of this very minute part of your wealth… I know that one of your objectives is to acquire property.

    That’s a worthwhile goal.

  • 889 Greg Atkinson // May 8, 2013 at 5:59 am

    The RBA cut interest rates again yesterday so this should at least provide some support for the stock market especially for higher yielding stocks but I still don’t expect the ASX All Ords/ASX 200 to move much beyond the 4800-5200 range just yet.

  • 890 Stillgotshoeson // Jun 12, 2013 at 2:14 am

    Stillgotshoeson // Mar 20, 2013 at 3:48 pm

    Greg @ 859

    I see support levels @ 4750 then @ 4500 and @ 4250

    Below 4000 means confidence is lost and last stop will be 3750 before we test new GFC lows. I do not see that happening this year although the situation in Europe is interesting to say the least. Contagion?

    Last Friday the All Ords and ASX 200 both closed under the 4750 level. I think a close under there again at weeks end will put the 4500 call up next.

    37 to 40 redundancies coming up at work. I have put my hand up for a package.

  • 891 Greg Atkinson // Jun 12, 2013 at 7:13 am

    Stillgotshoeson we may hit the correction level this week after which the focus will be on support levels and the ones you have mentioned seem about right to me, although I am still a fan of 4400 ;)

  • 892 Greg Atkinson // Aug 12, 2013 at 9:21 am

    I am sticking with my forecast for the All Ords/ASX 200 from January and still expect them to finish within the 4800-5200 range (or thereabouts). At present they are both just above 5000.

  • 893 Stillgotshoeson // Aug 15, 2013 at 7:53 pm

    100k Portfolio

    BKP 714000 @ $0.004 $2856
    BPT 7500 @ $1.36 $10200
    EVN 7370 @ $0.88 $6485
    FML 1225560 @ $0.016 $19609
    PIO 60000 @$0.015 $900
    PRU 3900 @ $0.655 $2555
    SBM 6100 @ $0.59 $3599

    Shares $46204
    11Kg Silver @ $819.77 $9017
    Cash $493

    Total $55714

  • 894 Greg Atkinson // Oct 28, 2013 at 8:17 pm

    Well the All Ords/ASX 200 closed above 5400 today with the market being on a bit of a roll. It all seems a bit too easy at the moment which makes me think a correction can’t be too far away.

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