Shareswatch Australia

534 responses so far ↓

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• 501 Ned S // Dec 21, 2011 at 5:59 pm

  And here’s me just sinking a bottle of spirits (tho’ one of them’s a bit unusual -- I generally try to keep it to a bottle of port -- A tad less even?) and sort of continuing to watch the world do its thing …

• 502 Biker // Dec 21, 2011 at 6:26 pm

  Plornt: Biker is getting bearish — it must be time to have net long exposure…

  Nah, y’see we avoid all that government/greenie/GFC stuff with property. Take all their solar subsidies, cut out the letters in the ‘I Support Fishing Sanctuaries’ stickers so they read “I Fish Sanctuaries’, and make sure we’re invested only in countries which sidestepped the GFC… .

  Any port in a storm, Ned, but The Grove’s Vintage Shiraz Port and Donnelly River’s TP are hard-to-beat… .

• 503 Plornt // Dec 21, 2011 at 6:49 pm

  “Nah, y’see we avoid all that government/greenie/GFC stuff with property. Take all their solar subsidies, cut out the letters in the ‘I Support Fishing Sanctuaries’ stickers so they read “I Fish Sanctuaries’, and make sure we’re invested only in countries which sidestepped the GFC… ”

  Sounds like you are very wise and prudent investor by sticking within your circle of competence (i.e. real estate). You seem to be always rational, intelligent and a modest person with much to be modest about. Hope you continue to do well .

  This drivel should not be taken as financial advice. Seek to obtain professional
  advice before proceeding with any financial decision.

• 504 Plornt // Dec 21, 2011 at 7:31 pm

  “@HVN I expect it to go a little lower than this circa $1.70 .”

  Yes Still thats always a possibility. Based on trailing earnings its running on a pe of of 8.5. Obviously there will be some drop in earnings this FY, but there is enough margin of safety with that sort of trailing pe; which already is reduced from the ~28c eps peak. I doubt earnings would collapse given Gerry is buying and you still have below bookvalue protection. In the last 10 years HVN has only traded below bookvalue once, and that was during the March 09 market bottom.

  This drivel should not be taken as financial advice. Seek to obtain professional
  advice before proceeding with any financial decision.

• 505 Biker // Dec 21, 2011 at 7:33 pm

  Plornt: “…a modest person with much to be modest about.”

  Yes, one might even contend I’m cerebrally-challenged, a ‘mum’n'dad investor’ who never strayed where none but angels tread. These ‘systems’ intrigue me. My brother had ‘a system’.
  Used it successfully at Burswood Casino for a while. Sadly we were never quite smart enough to create ‘a system’… but we were able to pay off all his debts and save my parents’ farm.
  We figured out later a coin toss might have served him better.

  Quite envious of everyone with ‘a system’. Wouldn’t have a _clue_ how to go about developing one. Education system let me down there… . Every time a sports car passes me, even a KITty car, I think to myself “Now that fella must have a system… .”

  “Hope you continue to do well”

  Thanks. Nothing to it, really. Owe much of it to ‘Property for Dummies’ Random House, $19.95.

• 506 Plornt // Dec 21, 2011 at 7:48 pm

  “Used it successfully at Burswood Casino for a while. Sadly we were never quite smart enough to create ‘a system’… but we were able to pay off all his debts and save my parents’ farm.
  We figured out later a coin toss might have served him better.”

  Sorry to hear that. My systems are adaptive so they will change as the markets change. Also I continue to create new systems all the time so loss of edges are not a problem for me. If the system doesn’t work anymore my risk management will simply force me to stop using said system. My systems are basically tied to my natural ability to be creative, which i’ve had since i’ve been very young. So I guess it would be difficult to replicate as you would need to be able to find the system variances which can be tricky and requires a lot of creativity.

  You can keep doubting me Biker i love it; will drive me to generate even better returns and make my risk management water tight. You’ve been continuously skeptical of me yet I am still here and you are still trying to find holes to discredit me . You are a very poor judge of character it seems . Results win over time not words and superior english skills .

  BTW you did mention awhile ago you used simple systems for your real estate endeavours .

  This drivel should not be taken as financial advice. Seek to obtain professional
  advice before proceeding with any financial decision.

• 507 Ned S // Dec 21, 2011 at 11:55 pm

  Haven’t read the thread thru but just saw the “a modest person with much to be modest about” bit -- LMFAO! (A Winnie C rip orff??? -- Or some such? And good fun.)

  All good … Will come back tomorrow and attempt to digest a bit more thoroughly perhaps -- On the off chance someone’s told me what interest rates are gunna do over the next 5, 10 and 20 years. (But it’s all good for a laugh in the interim.)

  Cheers to all … Life’s a HOOT!

• 508 Stillgotshoeson // Dec 22, 2011 at 12:19 am

  Ned S // Dec 21, 2011 at 11:55 pm

  Will come back tomorrow and attempt to digest a bit more thoroughly perhaps — On the off chance someone’s told me what interest rates are gunna do over the next 5, 10 and 20 years. (But it’s all good for a laugh in the interim.)

  They are going to do what they have always done Ned… Go up and down
  They are closer to their low point than they are to their high point of the cycle…
  Financially it makes more sense to allow for higher rates not budget for lower rates…

• 509 Plornt // Dec 22, 2011 at 6:57 am

  Thought this might interest some people --
  Candlestick Charting not profitable:
  “Using robust statistical techniques, we find that candlestick trading rules are not profitable
  when applied to DJIA component stocks over 1/1/1992 – 31/12/2002 period. Neither bullish
  or bearish candlestick single lines or patterns provide market timing signals that are any better
  than what would be expected by chance. Basing ones trading decisions solely on these
  techniques does not seem sensible but we cannot rule out the possibility that they compliment
  some other market timing techniques.”
  http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=980583

  Hammer candles can break down further. For example look at the supposed “hangman” candle on the XAO on Dec 18 2007. Albiet the candle was not perfect 2 x line to body, but did not have a shadow. You got a very short term bounce and then crashed to 5222. It was just so unrealible over time frames exceeding several weeks. Might as well go to the casino or throw some darts .

  Granted there are many other more complicated candle patterns to indentify. I remember trying many of them like Doji Stars or Downward Gapping Tsukis and sailor moon siamese ninjasticks all with results no better than a toss of a coin.

  http://www.amazon.com/Evidence-Based-Technical-Analysis-Scientific-Statistical/dp/0470008741/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1324504641&sr=8-1

  This drivel should not be taken as financial advice. Seek to obtain professional
  advice before proceeding with any financial decision.

• 510 Plornt // Dec 22, 2011 at 8:15 am

  “On the off chance someone’s told me what interest rates are gunna do over the next 5, 10 and 20 years. (But it’s all good for a laugh in the interim.)”

  Ned I have an article somewhere that intelligently and rationally discusses what you are looking for. Will find it and post a bit later.

• 511 Plornt // Dec 22, 2011 at 6:57 pm

  Well i’m off again, will comeback in a few months to see how things pan out, as I have other things I must do. XAO should be higher by then. Good luck and hope everyone is successful with their investments and/or trading.

  This drivel should not be taken as financial advice. Seek to obtain professional
  advice before proceeding with any financial decision.

• 512 Lachlan // Dec 22, 2011 at 7:18 pm

  Re TA….I just like to use some simple support and resistance concepts… and some indicators like RSI to some degree and divergences…. maybe studying some correlations. Maybe refrain from being caught up in the dramas. Make a fundamental decision, buy cheap or at a support/oversold area, stick with the program…buy and hold maybe.

  Good luck with your endeavours Plornt…make sure you come back to talk to us if something blows up in the meantime

• 513 Plornt // Dec 22, 2011 at 7:32 pm

  “Maybe refrain from being caught up in the dramas. Make a fundamental decision, buy cheap or at a support/oversold area, stick with the program…buy and hold maybe.”

  Probably the smartest way to do it I think fundamental long term investors are the main winners in this game which I have switched to.

  This drivel should not be taken as financial advice. Seek to obtain professional
  advice before proceeding with any financial decision.

• 514 Stillgotshoeson // Dec 22, 2011 at 8:10 pm

  Fundamentals are the way to go…

  These include, but not limited to:

  Economic conditions, Personal Risk Factor, What the company does, likely demand, company debt levels, country (sovereign risk)
  Company Management (google directors for prior information)

  Research is your friend, maybe time consuming but can save you thousands.

  See you on your return Plornt. Expectations are for more volatility in the market next year, maybe QEIII from the US Fed in first half 2012…

• 515 Lachlan // Dec 22, 2011 at 9:14 pm

  how do you see NCM now Shoes? I missed my $30 bottom while out bush. Might buy tomorrow..maybe. I was looking at a couple divi payers… maybe a coal play. I like the way the markets are shaping now for the short-med term…esp if we rally straight back to 4350 from here.

• 516 Stillgotshoeson // Dec 22, 2011 at 10:09 pm

  Psychological support level around $30, not fundamental so may go below. I think still good buying at around these levels.

  SBM under $2 bucks are excellent buying as well I believe.

  Still may see a bit more decline in Gold/Silver prices before the run up again.

  Accumulate shares on dips as I believe you currently do anyway.

  PRU are looking good at these levels.. Made over 20k on them last time, bought at similiar level and sold just over $4. Have done the same bought more @$2.52

• 517 Ficus // Jan 8, 2012 at 9:14 pm

  Hi

  Just wondering how people feel about the price of BHP at the moment. I was going to start trading it on low margins. Maybe 1-1.5%. Looks like there is support at about $34 and resistence about $37-38

  Cheers F

• 518 Greg Atkinson // Jan 9, 2012 at 8:21 am

  Ficus at this stage I am wary of the miners simply because prices for iron ore, coking coal & copper for example appear to be trending downwards. BHP is certainly a quality blue-chip stock worth watching though.

• 519 Ficus // Jan 9, 2012 at 10:41 am

  Thanks Greg, Does anyone hold GBG. I have some, they at a low but I think will be good in next 1-2 years. Any thoughts?

• 520 Stillgotshoeson // Jan 10, 2012 at 2:01 pm

  100k Portfolio.

  IMF 7407 @ $1.35 $9999.45
  ABY 13000 @ $.765 $9945
  GRY* 8500 @ $1.165 $9902.50
  PRU* 3900 @ $2.54 $9906
  FML* 185000 @ $.054 $9990
  RAU* 2500000 @ $.004 $10000
  BPT* 7500 @ $1.30 $9750
  API 37700 @ $.265 $9990.50
  BKP 714000 @ $.014 $9996
  CTN 11000 @ $.89 $9790

  Total + $199.50 Brokerage $99278.45

  Shares with an * are shares I currently own.

  Will update from time to time if not trading. Will update same day as I make a trade.

  These are not recommendations to buy and I am not a licensed financial advisor. Own diligence is required whenever investing.

• 521 Stillgotshoeson // Jan 23, 2012 at 3:17 pm

  ABY 0.880 13000 $11440
  API 0.285 37700 $10744.50
  BKP 0.015 714000 $10710
  BPT 1.490 7500 $11175
  CTN 0.915 11000 $10065
  FML 0.053 185000 $ 9805
  GRY 1.360 8500 $11560
  IMF 1.350 7407 $ 9999.45
  PRU 2.830 3900 $11037
  RAU* 0.003 2500000 $ 7500

  100K Portfolio $104035.95
  + $ 721.55 Cash
  $104757.50

  * Volumes have been extremely low.

  No trades made to date.

• 522 Greg Atkinson // Jan 24, 2012 at 9:58 am

  I am in sitting on my hands mode at the moment. The Baltic Dry Index is down near the the GFC low and we have the IMF talking about a possible global economic depression. I get the feeling that we might have a nasty move downwards after the Chinese New Year break and that the All Ords/ASX could slide below 4000.

• 523 Ned S // Jan 24, 2012 at 10:39 am

  A thought that comes to my mind is that the US seems to be feeling happy that they aren’t doing as bad as lots of others so the DJIA goes up and our market gets some spin off. But given the hand wringing and nasty predictions out there by those one assumes know a bit (IMF and World Bank), markets going up now does seem strange.

• 524 Stillgotshoeson // Jan 24, 2012 at 11:10 am

  I fully expect the All Ords/ASX to fall, Still think we will hit new (GFC) low before it is all over. Not enough to stop me having some exposure to the market, some sectors should outperform still.

  Volatility will continue for a while yet imho. All Ords/ASX are going to be up and down.

  DUe to my belief of a new low to be reached, but no idea when, I will continue to shy away from the the banks and the 2 big miners for a little while longer yet.

  If the rumoured Japanese banks do come here, that will impact to some extent our big four and their profit line. Reduced earnings will equal reduced dividends.

  A friend of mine (English) living in Denmark, works for a ship broking firm, he says things are very quiet in the shipping world…

• 525 Lachlan // Jan 28, 2012 at 4:02 pm

  Short term we will almost certainly run to 4350/4400 on the xjo and 1.08 on the aud/usd before some kind of a pause or reversal.
  Nice run up on my shares continued last Friday with a further 1.7% gain overall.
  Action has been nice and strong on gold and silver but the metal markets are paper mirages still so I wont rule out the possibility of lower targets… however the chances near term are decreasing as the action becomes more vigorous.
  My position for the long term on all these things remains bullish. Intermediate term I stay neutral until this range breaks up.
  I guess if we are to go lower first Shoes then it could be after a rally here to 4400 or 4600 or even back to 5000 odd.

  BDI certainly does look sad Greg… in the news a lot this last week or two. Stocks may still rally, or maybe not…they can be irrational…anybody’s guess.

• 526 Stillgotshoeson // Jan 29, 2012 at 2:05 pm

  4500 +/- 100 or so I can see, 5000 I just can not see happening without actual money printing in the Northern Hemisphere, as opposed to talk of money printing.

  Europe is still a basket case. Unemployment/underemployment are starting to rise here and further rate reductions on mortgage rates are looking to be minimal if any into the near future regardless of what the RBA does. These are the things I expected to occur last year but “can kicking” delayed it a little longer.

  We are coming to the end of the road and soon there will be no where to kick the can anymore.

  Bank. “we see you have maxed out your credit card Mr Nation, here have an increased limit”
  Bank “we see you ave maxed out your credit card again Mr Nation, here have a limit increase”

  Can only happen for so long then it is over.

  I think we will see the money printing this half of 2012.. How long it boosts the market for remains to be seen.

• 527 Lachlan // Jan 29, 2012 at 2:33 pm

  USDX has made a reversal too Shoes. Whether its a pause before more inflows to treasuries begin or a the start of a decent sell off I don’t know.
  You say Europe is still a basket case, I agree and despite talk of Greek default ect I tend to suspect this will be a slow band aid removal with political motivations key to that suspicion. And therefore as this process continues I can see a lesser chance of a quick resumption in up trend and higher chances of sideways grinding below the 5000 area and even a belt down to 09 lows and back. If we go lower than that…I hope we don’t but if so then so be it.

  The Fed will print everything they need whether they tell us or not.

• 528 Ficus // Jan 29, 2012 at 6:52 pm

  Does anyone know much about the mining services sector. I am looking at making an investment in Bradken, Monadelphous, Decmil or something similar. Interested in small caps. At the moment swaying towards Decmil ( good track history and High ROE).

  Cheers

• 529 Lachlan // Jan 29, 2012 at 8:22 pm

  I am no expert Ficus, won’t speak for the others. I like to make a few predictions with the fellas here for fun but they’re just personal views and not advice. I like to make sure my shares have some cash reserves, a good market and expectation of earnings or a big find but beyond that I am price chart analyses trader but an amateur. Price movements give at least some hint of what every market participant is thinking whether mum and pops or professionals or manipulators.

  On QE here is a link to show the program in some of it’s glory

  http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/01/living-in-a-qe-world/

  I believe it is possible this program may endure for a long time while all sorts of structural changes take place across the globe…..and depending on the tolerance of the masses.

• 530 Greg Atkinson // Jan 30, 2012 at 8:11 am

  Ficus Monadelphous is is a stock within the Shareswatch Random Portfolio so can get some idea of how its share price has been tracking by looking here: Random Porfolio

• 531 Stillgotshoeson // Feb 3, 2012 at 9:48 am

  My Bolivian Play has taken a hit to the downside Lachlan on fears of nationalisation as discussed last year.

  IMF 7407 @ $1.31.5 $9740.20
  ABY 13000 @ $.89.5 $11635
  GRY* 8500 @ $1.32.5 $11262.50
  PRU* 3900 @ $2.96 $11544
  FML* 185000 @ $.054 $9990
  BPT* 7500 @ $1.495 $11212.50
  API 37700 @ $.295 $11121.50
  BKP 714000 @ $.016 $11424
  CTN 11000 @ $.995 $10954

  Sold RAU 2500000 @ .002 Loss $5000

  100k Portfolio Shares $98883 Cash $5721 Total $104605

• 532 Lachlan // Feb 3, 2012 at 6:33 pm

  I have shares like that which are highly speculative and they are also highly volatile. They go up and down by massive percentages. The reason I have a very small position on explorers is because of the oversize gains available. If I wait long enough I will pick up a 5-10X gain….granted its possible one of them may blow up. The winners should cover the losses easily. My rule is not to sell in any down draft and I can only rest easy with that because I invest small enough to not give a hoot if they hit zero. The upside on a share like RAU was obviously measured in 1000′s of % and that remains true even if they do fail for those reasons we talked about last year.
  My position on shares overall is small but I love the game of course and will keep building a quality portfolio as are you. Otherwise I am mostly physical assets. Looking to buy a block this year also for my business (which is overtaking my house) but in a growth area and I expect to get a very good discount on the price.

• 533 Lachlan // Feb 3, 2012 at 6:42 pm

  I’m not saying that Id hold the RAU’s either Shoes. I know we both use differing strategies and there are plenty that work.

• 534 Stillgotshoeson // Feb 3, 2012 at 7:40 pm

  I still have my holding of RAU Lachlan. The 100k Portfolio is not a real portfolio, It is up just to see how it would do if traded in the real world. It does however contain some companies I do hold shares in.

  My direct exposure is not great. I aready have significant gains to offset the loss if it goes belly up. Current position of the company is they are holding enough cash for the next 6 months. They are in mid contract for the sale of their North Queensland assets for scrip and cash in another company.

  Current workings at the Bolivian mine are suspended further to discussions with the Bolivian Government. Republics Bolivian mine had received great interest from companies willing to (help) finance the mine, however all companies expressed concerns over the Bolivian Governments willingness to nationalise mines at the moment.

  Suspension of the mine and a willingness to abandon the project may prompt the BG to offer some sort of deal, even if they intend to “amend” such deals in the future. Get the mine to production stage then take it over

  Even allowing for the “supposed” hit on the 100k portfolio it is still in front after the loss (capital loss carried over against future capital gain on sale)

  Going over other share picks to add to the portfolio to replace RAU.

  Might put a dividend play in the portfolio.. Will think about it over the weekend.

  The coffee shop is still doing very well, partner wants to expand the business to another shop. Has offered to buy me out if I want at a handy profit to my initial outlay. Tempting. I don’t do any work at the place, I was just a financial partner. There is a dwelling above the shop, he wants to try and buy it and open it up as an upstairs area.

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