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614 responses so far ↓
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401 Lachlan // Oct 28, 2011 at 4:21 pm
I’m neutral and not predicting the lower move but i’d just feel better about a rally if we got one….the consolidation we’ve had here looks ripe for shaking out first.
402 Plornt // Oct 28, 2011 at 4:46 pm
They say most of the damage is done in the last 10% of the move. There was no major capitulation on the last low, just rangebound congestion.
Lachlan just be careful or you’ll get eaten alive. Correct me if i’m wrong but you appear to have lost money in 2008, comeback in after being bearish when it was statistically poor to do so, then buy back in near the top, and now want to average down. If I were you i’d freeze all buyin — averaging down is a mugs game unless you have a material information edge; which us part-timers/casual mortals don’t. This is not advice though and you should always seek and take advice from a licenced financial advisor before making any decision.
The problem we have now, is what happens to the XAO if the housing market goes. Will the XAO chart do an ireland? What % amount did that go down. It would be interesting to find out the % drop of each stockmarket in history after its related housing market fell substantially. And the housing guys are right when they say you are worse off in domestic equities than real estate if the housing market goes.
This drivel should not be taken as financial advice. Seek to obtain professional
advice before proceeding with any financial decision.
403 Greg Atkinson // Oct 28, 2011 at 4:52 pm
The market was oversold when it was down around 4000 but it’s was hardly worth the risk jumping in at that level just to ride the market up 10%.
So here we are around 4400 again, it took longer than I thought but I blame the French for that
So for now the Europeans have stopped the bleeding whilst the U.S. economy limps along. But the finance news I am seeing here in Japan suggests a slowdown in China is indeed under-way and I put more weight on that than what BHP & RIO executives are saying.
So we might get back near 4800 this year but that will be it. This will become more likely if the RBA cuts interest rates and the attraction of parking money in the bank becomes a little less.
404 Lachlan // Oct 28, 2011 at 6:45 pm
Sorry Plornt I just had three family members phone…I’m turning 40 on Sunday and I’m getting a party it seems
I only buy gold shares at present. If we go lower I may look at divi payers in other areas. In the current market predicament the pog has risen much against shares in the last few years. Yes they are poor performers generally keeping with the broad market but better to accumulate here than later in a bull run. I also only buy at technical levels which look supportive. But it bothers me not because I only buy small, no leverage and hold for the long term. The market gyrations are a good chance to buy at better valuations so for example I like NCM at near $30 which is a pivot of sorts and if we get more downside I’ll buy there. If it goes lower I will not lose a wink…honestly. I have shares which are underwater eg GMR and BCN and shares which are doing very well against the recent market trend eg SAR and IGR. But to me they all represent a good long term bet. All of them.
My outlook does not include too much deflation but in fact I am mainly concerned with real/relative values. The values of assets in relation to each other. It’s about how I think those valuations will change in the future. For example if people really see a complete deflationary collapse I am fine with that but how will relative values change in the event. And can people ride it out? No leverage…yes.
Besides goldies I’d like to pick some coal and gas plays up but its not time right now I feel.
I did lose money on shares and leveraged bets a few years back but have since done very nicely over my entire portfolio…largely metals. God willing, it’ll keep on keeping on.
Cheers Plornt.
405 Biker // Oct 28, 2011 at 10:08 pm
Coal and gas are scary, Lachlan. Politics will interfere with these resources continually.
Bumper sticker we saw last week: NO FRACKING COAL!
Plornt, it’s interesting to speculate what might happen to the share market IF housing crashed. Remember that shares fell 55.4% _without_ any housing crash. Personally, we can’t see housing falling dramatically in our lifetime… but, if it did, we’d double our property holdings, quickly.
There’s little drama in property…. no great rush like that in shares… or online poker… none of the glitter of gold… it just keeps paying fortnightly dividends, with a major _jackpot_ at tax return time.
406 Lachlan // Oct 29, 2011 at 4:54 am
Maybe you are right BP…I’m just astounded though at what’s going on. I’m around the gas and oil areas a few days a week at least and its just incredible the progress and money involved. Buy out the farmers, give the local sports club a free rider mower, everyone’s just dandy mate…
Big mines, big money equals big political clout too.
407 Lachlan // Oct 29, 2011 at 7:36 am
correction… gas and coal areas, not oil
408 Biker // Oct 29, 2011 at 11:35 am
Lachlan: “Big mines, big money equals big political clout too.”
That would normally be true, but with the current Green/Independent balance of power, political intervention is likely to limit fracking.
We once believed that gas was the interim solution to energy needs. At the cost of polluted water supplies, we’re not so sure these days.
We’ve spent the week buying up solar heat pumps and solar panel hot water systems. Just doing our bit for the environment… and, of course, consumerism!~
409 Ned S // Oct 29, 2011 at 11:10 pm
Happy Birthday Lachlan!
PS: Ignore Greg’s time -- He works off one of those clocks that cause all our QLD milkers to dry up and run around in circles squirting out brine pretty obviously …
410 Greg Atkinson // Oct 30, 2011 at 6:46 am
The All Ords is now around 4400 and would be higher in my view if the mining & carbon taxes were off the table. The market rally after the European debt deal seems to have fizzled out so I am struggling to think what might give the market a push up from here. Probably not news from the U.S. Maybe a commodities inspired rally on the back of some good PPI numbers from China?
411 Lachlan // Oct 31, 2011 at 1:52 pm
Oooops, missed you Ned. Thanks for the HB…
had a real nice day as it turned out. Played a lot of backyard sports, got a bit carried away, started to feel like a legend. Today I feel like I’ve been hit by a truck
412 Ned S // Nov 2, 2011 at 3:35 am
It was all as it should have been then Lachlan
Hmmm -- How about those Greeks? Seems they’re hoping beggers just might be able to be choosy after all??? (I’d love to be able to listen in on Sarkozy and Merkel’s conversation -- One would presumably get a crash course in all the very naughtiest of French and German swear words.)
Seems to be the latest? :
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-recover-some-on-greek-report-2011-11-01?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts
413 asxiq // Nov 2, 2011 at 4:27 pm
when ever S&P500 fallen by more than 2 % ASX AORD has the tendency to fall from open to close 14/18 times in 2011
http://asxiq.com/blog/sp500-effect-on-australian-markets-aord/
414 Ned S // Nov 3, 2011 at 8:34 pm
Gillard and Swan want to bail out Europe. While China is inclining to the view Europe should bail itself out. And France reckons the EU actually can live without Greece. Might be a good idea for the Goose and the Red Queen to shut their yaps for a while and just see how the big boys ‘n girls decide to play it perhaps?
Curious thought on China bailing out Europe -- Why would China care too much? If Europeans should go from earning USD 40K pa (or whatever) to USD 20K pa (or whatever), wouldn’t that just mean they’d be even MORE inclined to buy cheap Chinese crud? As opposed to expensive US, German and Japanese crud? Unless things actually get so bad for the US, Germany and Japan that they actually can produce their expensive crud for not all that much more than China can produce its cheap crud??? (If you get my drift?)
415 Ned S // Nov 4, 2011 at 1:46 am
Looks like the markets are taking a pragmatic attitude to it? Greece is screwed -- Oh well, we always knew that was the case anyway …
Curious -- Wonder if the news that Italy is screwed will meet the same response? How about the facts the UK and the US and France are screwed?
416 Ned S // Nov 4, 2011 at 3:39 am
Taint easy being a bear Biker …
417 asxiq // Nov 4, 2011 at 8:19 pm
backtest performance summary for AORD after an “inside day”
http://asxiq.com/blog/inside-day-trading-strategy-on-asx-index/
418 Biker // Nov 5, 2011 at 8:47 am
Ned: “Taint easy being a bear Biker …
”
Finding retirement out in the paddock suits me, Ned*.
Record tax return this year, a/c to our accountant, yesterday.
More answers to our list of key questions, but we’ll only really know if our tweaks work, in 2012. Bank interest will be well down, we think. Mine dew, rents continue to climb steadily.
* I could stay here for heifer and heifer and heifer…
419 Plornt // Nov 5, 2011 at 11:18 am
Thanks for the post asxiq, but i think perhaps it would be better to not post links to your site every post. I’m not sure alot of your trading setups that you’ve statistically analysed would work effectively in the real world.
Maybe you should show your returns and trades you’ve entered, in real time, so we can better gauge the quality of the information being provided.
Cheers and hope your site does well.
420 asxiq // Nov 5, 2011 at 11:53 pm
sorry mate plorant , will try to post the content (along with the setup if at useful )with out a link to the site next time on wards.
cheers and good luck in your trading .
421 Plornt // Nov 22, 2011 at 1:03 pm
Numerous stocks have bottomed imo LT. Bearishness is rampant. Next year will have very good returns (and probably years after that) once we get through this mess. Am buying LT investments heavily into this pullback and will average down. Throw a dart at a beaten down stock time.
Massive Nikkei Bull cycle is starting.
This drivel should not be taken as financial advice. Seek to obtain professional
advice before proceeding with any financial decision.
422 Greg Atkinson // Nov 22, 2011 at 6:00 pm
I am not inclined to buy much at the moment. We now have the World Bank talking of a slowdown in China and so it seems the idea that the Chinese economy will slow has finally caught on…about 18 months or so since I raised the subject on this site
The big downside risk to the Australian stock market is that the economic soft landing in China will turn out to be a rather painful crash landing.
As for the Austrlaian stock market, well it seems we are moving now sideways between 4000-4400 and I fear we might be stuck in that range for a while.
423 Stillgotshoeson // Nov 22, 2011 at 8:14 pm
Many stocks have bottomed, many more have yet to stop falling.
I still think we will test a new low.
Our banks are out of steam and the troubles in the Northern Hemisphere show no signs of improving, China is slowing down so our resource companies are going to cop it as well.
Took advantage of the SPP for RIO recently buying $9k worth to add to my current holdings of them. Max allowed was $15k
Some on my watch list are at attractive levels but not jumping at anything at the moment.
Can not see any reason to buy the banks or RIO and BHP at the moment. Interesting times still ahead.
BAnks still have short term funding issues going into 2012 and poor growth since their end of financial year results.
Have added a couple of stocks to my watch list that are at levels that interest me, will watch them a little longer. Holding a dozen companies across my super and non super holdings.
May go big on one of my gold miners soon.
424 Plornt // Nov 25, 2011 at 12:46 pm
System XAO giving short exit signal. Hdg Targets hit.
This drivel should not be taken as financial advice. Seek to obtain professional
advice before proceeding with any financial decision.
425 Greg Atkinson // Nov 25, 2011 at 1:03 pm
The Australian stock market is getting knocked around by the European debt mess but also because many investors have woken up (finally) to the reality that China is not immune to a global slowdown and either is Australia.
But having said that I sense we are in oversold territory again. The problem is the that upside from here is likely to be pretty limited in the short to medium term.
426 Lachlan // Nov 25, 2011 at 1:34 pm
“But having said that I sense we are in oversold territory again. The problem is the that upside from here is likely to be pretty limited in the short to medium term.”
I see that too Greg. The ASX200 has a pivot around 4000 which it might close at today and bounce from next week. The bears will need to get us down to 3800 in quick time to have much of a case for further downside medium term. Regardless there are no great gaps to fill on the up or downside so unless we go to war next week or the sun fails to rise then I guess its just going to be more chopping about until we grind our way out this range one direction or the other. Crumbs, I’m starting to wish the bears are right and we can just collapse and finally start a decent rally from lower down.
427 Plornt // Nov 25, 2011 at 2:56 pm
“But having said that I sense we are in oversold territory again. The problem is the that upside from here is likely to be pretty limited in the short to medium term.”
Yep not much downside from here. Im not betting against my system to get out of shorts, thats for sure. Might keep going down, but there is alot of great longterm value out there, the question is can you handle the volatility to capture the longterm gains, or will you sit there in fear hoping for a better price, even though great value is staring you in the face.
This drivel should not be taken as financial advice. Seek to obtain professional
advice before proceeding with any financial decision.
428 Stillgotshoeson // Nov 25, 2011 at 3:15 pm
Plornt // Nov 25, 2011 at 2:56 pm
” the question is can you handle the volatility to capture the longterm gains, or will you sit there in fear hoping for a better price, even though great value is staring you in the face.”
My problem is there are far too many stocks now at very attractive levels for the longer term. I do not want to hold a 50 stock portfolio, even 20 is starting to get too high for my liking.
As I mentioned on a previous thread, between the US and Europe I am expecting multi trillion dollar QE.
Volatility I think I can handle, early forties, plenty of time to recover from a bad choice(s). Couple more years of “wealth” building then I intend to switch to a more income defined investment portfolio and stop working, or if need be down to a couple of days a week.
Volatility is with us for a while but the trend is still indicating down.
429 Greg Atkinson // Nov 25, 2011 at 3:42 pm
The scary thing is we are mainly dealing with a market dragged down by Europe but can you imagine the hit the Oz market would take if the Chinese economy hits the skids?
That’s the downside I worry about.
Looks like my end of year target of around 4800 is toast..maybe I should have said 3800!
430 Plornt // Nov 25, 2011 at 6:06 pm
Greg my EOY target is 4600. I remain optimistc we will get there. Since we’ve already crashed, im going to try and be greedy whilst others are fearful. I think a big move to the upside is comming in the ensuing months and years. I’m pretty sure about this, and i’ve gone all in so to speak.
This drivel should not be taken as financial advice. Seek to obtain professional
advice before proceeding with any financial decision.
431 Plornt // Nov 25, 2011 at 6:09 pm
Adapt or die
I think alot of ppl have burnt fingers from the second crash in the 2008 GFC Debacle, where there was a second crash in Sept/Oct after the first one in January 08. This is not going to follow the same path.
This drivel should not be taken as financial advice. Seek to obtain professional
advice before proceeding with any financial decision.
432 Biker // Nov 25, 2011 at 7:23 pm
Plornt: “This is not going to follow the same path.”
As Don once noted: “History repeats itself until it doesn’t…”
Are we likely to see this deja vu all over again?
http://www.watoday.com.au/business/bank-tips-four-rate-cuts-in-a-row-20111123-1ntnt.html
433 Plornt // Nov 25, 2011 at 8:11 pm
Yes both our opinions are useless. The difference being im using systems to help some of my ideas and you are quoting media articles.
This drivel should not be taken as financial advice. Seek to obtain professional
advice before proceeding with any financial decision.
434 Greg Atkinson // Nov 25, 2011 at 8:17 pm
Biker didn’t you already say that earlier?
Anyway I said back at the start of the year and maybe even back late last year that interest rates were too high and should come down. But many wise minds in the finance media said that rates in 2011 would rise without a doubt, so I guess I was wrong
I have been bearish regarding the Australian stock market for some time however at this point in time it seems I might not have been bearish enough.
We might see major push up towards 4600-4800 for the All Ords/ASX 200 but I doubt it. At the moment if we were to end the year around 4400 then that would be good enough for me.
435 Plornt // Nov 25, 2011 at 8:30 pm
Its doesn’t matter if you are right or wrong Greg, as long as you don’t stay wrong. I still think rates are going to rise, my system tells me that a continuing correction is possible but Australian Government bonds are definitely in a bull market.
Catalyst for bond rates could be Australian house prices collapse over the next 5 years, banks fail, Cth bails em out, government in huge amount of debt and we become Ireland.
Australian Banks seem to be cutting costs heavily, which should help profitability, whilst house prices are comming off slowly, analogous to America (history repeating in different market(s)).
This drivel should not be taken as financial advice. Seek to obtain professional
advice before proceeding with any financial decision.
436 Biker // Nov 25, 2011 at 11:02 pm
Greg: “Biker didn’t you already say that earlier?
”
Like I say, deja vu all over again, Greg! I must be getting older, alzheiming, perhaps(?) although I note that some of us are actually getting _younger_! More recovery time needed, mebbe?
I too thought the market would be higher by year’s end. Foolish of me to try to predict the future. Gotta avoid these epidemics!
Looks pretty good to us here. About to start building again.
437 Biker // Nov 25, 2011 at 11:08 pm
Plornt: “I still think rates are going to rise…”
Are you serious? What ‘system’ is providing this information?
Does it provide a timeline for these rate increases?
When might we expect the first?
438 Plornt // Nov 25, 2011 at 11:24 pm
“Are you serious? What ‘system’ is providing this information?
Does it provide a timeline for these rate increases?
When might we expect the first?”
Biker I would provide more details but I really cant be bothered because there is no benefit in me helping you. Nor do I really care what you think.
Good luck with your endeavours and I wish you the most success.
This drivel should not be taken as financial advice. Seek to obtain professional
advice before proceeding with any financial decision.
439 Biker // Nov 26, 2011 at 7:27 am
Plornt: “I really cant be bothered because there is no benefit in me helping you.”
Never mind… . Perhaps your insights into rates will help others wise enough to heed your counsel.
440 Greg Atkinson // Nov 26, 2011 at 8:07 am
Anyone brave enough to make a call on where the All Ords/ASX 200 will end this year? I am sticking with the call I made my: Australian stock market outlook for 2011
I am fully aware that I will probably have egg on my face in around a months time but to change my forecast now would be a bit lame.
If you make a forecast where the stock market will end the year please make it interesting and include the reasoning behind your call.
441 Plornt // Nov 26, 2011 at 8:52 am
Biker if you are good as an investor as you are sarcastic, you must be very well off. I wish I had your millions, but i’m just a poor soul who has very little. Its amazing someone who has been through so much and is supposedly implicitly wise, is still “afriad” of the stock market and is using the most interesting and breakthrough methods in order to make money from it.
I wonder if there is any sound method to your real estate endeavours or if it was just pure luck based on holding forever, for which a real estate generational crash will wipe out those gains and bring you back to the pack, and your intellectual superiority complex with it.
Keep arguing with me Biker, i’m happy to continue debating and keep positing and asking reasonable questions about your real estate endeavours.
What system(s) do use? Have you tested them through a 20-30% crash, or are you just using the 90′s “plateau” and your decades of experience through a housing bull market to help you now. I know there are lots of market(s), but id love you to be able to pick a market with these system(s) of yours, admist massive turmoil and still turn a profit. The GFC example was not a proper crash, not by any stretch. I think that purchase you got lucky; if the housing market(s) properly crashed, like they are in a rolling fashion now, you would have been underwater on that purchase from cost.
I judge people not on how much they have, but on how well they do under extreme stress. I have yet to see you survive a housing crash of the magnitude of 20-30% across the board median house prices in each state. When I see you do that, I will gain respect for you. For now I just see an old man who got lucky holding for 30 years gloat just before he possibly gets a massive reality check (and I really hope you avoid this and do well).
Lots of people used 20-30 year bull markets in shares, kept using the same methods / systems/ plans through the GFC and got absolutely slaughtered, losing 50-60% of their capital. The same things happened for real estate investors in America who relied on their “knowledge” in the 80s,90s,00s — albeit they on balance did not lose as much as their equity counterparts.
Greg I can only spit out my system targets, if I divulge the reasoning, the system components will be given out, which I am not prepared to do, nor am I stupid enough to. I don’t base my decisions based on trying to predict where the economy is going, or trying to guess human actions which are inherently complex to understand.
This drivel should not be taken as financial advice. Seek to obtain professional
advice before proceeding with any financial decision.
442 Plornt // Nov 26, 2011 at 9:14 am
Just a small side issue: we’d have to arguably question whether Biker is actually correct in alot of what he has stated, re: real estate investing or is he a psuedo username. I’m not saying that Biker is one, I believe what he has said as he seems like an honest individual, and have based that assumption in my post directly above. But there are lots of super wealthy individuals (>100+ million) that go under false identities and target newbies in order to make themselves feel intellectually superior without repercussion.
This drivel should not be taken as financial advice. Seek to obtain professional
advice before proceeding with any financial decision.
443 Biker // Nov 26, 2011 at 9:55 am
Some quick responses:
* We don’t claim to be wealthy. Others claim we are, but it’s all relative.
* When I get it wrong, I’m happy to say so. Reread Post 436.
* We don’t believe in ‘luck’.
* Yes, I’m using a ‘false identity’. My name is not really ‘Biker’.
* Your disclaimer is a wise inclusion.
444 Plornt // Nov 26, 2011 at 10:32 am
Great substance there Biker re: your system(s). As much detail as I gave you lol. You shouldn’t criticise others if you are unwilling to divulge your own “systems”. I suspect if I keep pushing the envelope the responses will become more sarcastic and cryptic.
May I suggest you give a disclaimer saying that everything you say is fictional at best, just kidding.
This drivel should not be taken as financial advice. Seek to obtain professional
advice before proceeding with any financial decision.
445 Biker // Nov 26, 2011 at 1:34 pm
System? We don’t really have a ‘system’, Plornt.
We keep it simple:
* Buy low;
* Sell high;
* Hold through flat periods;
* Do the simple(r) building stuff yourself;
* Plough back _most_ of the gains into property / Super;
* Raise rents _after_ good tenants leave;
* Don’t renew leases of disrespectful tenants.
* Don’t gamble.
Disclaimer: The above ‘system’ is pretty dull and boring. Works well but has few of the thrills of online gambling.
Very little ‘thinking’ involved. Few shortcuts.
Involves some physical labour… .
446 Greg Atkinson // Nov 26, 2011 at 2:14 pm
…and back to the stock market please…
447 Biker // Nov 26, 2011 at 2:26 pm
He asked… I responded.
448 Plornt // Nov 26, 2011 at 2:45 pm
lol poor Greg caught in the middle mediating again.
449 Stillgotshoeson // Nov 26, 2011 at 3:38 pm
Greg Atkinson
Anyone brave enough to make a call on where the All Ords/ASX 200 will end this year? I am sticking with the call I made my: Australian stock market outlook for 2011
I am fully aware that I will probably have egg on my face in around a months time but to change my forecast now would be a bit lame.
If you make a forecast where the stock market will end the year please make it interesting and include the reasoning behind your call.
One of my favourite Quotes.. Benjamin Graham: “You are neither right nor wrong because the crowd disagrees with you. You are right because your data and reasoning are right.”
My data tells me that this is not over and the trending down of the DOW and ASX is to continue, volatility will continue and we will see little rises here and there but the bottom, has yet to be reached.
Reasoning says manipulation is going to occur to interact with this downturn.. With a month or so to go until the end of year we reallistically will only get an announcement of governments intention to intervene in the economies, by default the markets, and this will give us the oft talked about “xmas” rally. Resistance is very strong at 4400 so that is the peak I expect the asx to reach on any announcement.
Procrastination and no announcements into the new year will most likely see the decline this year continue to 3750.
Greg Atkinson // Nov 25, 2011 at 3:42 pm
The scary thing is we are mainly dealing with a market dragged down by Europe but can you imagine the hit the Oz market would take if the Chinese economy hits the skids?
Not my figures but one Heraldsun columnist has given the figure of 1100 for the ASX if indeed China does have a harder landing than we all think it will…
Have decided to buy around $60000 worth of an Aussie Gold Miner I like on Monday, along with $40000 ($20k each) on a couple of beaten down stocks that I feel reasonably confident on. One of them is still paying around 10% dividends and is trading at a discount of around 90% from the high.
The other is yet to resume paying dividends but has recently announced a government contract and they have managed to get the debt problems for the most part covered, may look to share holders in a capital raising next year if the need arises. They are down to levels they were paying as dividends pre GFC. They have consolidated the share base too, some risk in the short term so only willing to risk a small stake on them, longer term, who knows, they could well be giving me back the purchase price every year in dividends.
450 Ned S // Nov 26, 2011 at 7:01 pm
It’s starting to look ugly again.
Oil is still high though -- I guess that could sort of be seen as a positive maybe?
Anyway, China is going to do a lot of stimulating. Some of which will presumably help Oz. Though not as much as last time.
Commonsense (to me???) says protracted multi-year downturn. Though I gather our official growth guesstimate is still about 4% -- Which IS extremely healthy.
ASX 1,100? -- Ferk, any of my mates who’ve geared their retirement towards super and don’t actually top themselves WILL be looking at working until they are 80!
Anyway, all that aside, I’d love to know what Merkel is REALLY angling for. Superficially it would seem to make sense to want to keep the Mediteranneans in the EU. But surely she has to realise she’ll never really change them? They’ll never really carry their weight??? Strange -- I’m confused. (But that’s normal for me.)
451 Ned S // Nov 26, 2011 at 10:37 pm
ASX prediction for end of calendar year -- Somewhere between 3,400 and 4,400.
(Stocks are volatile -- So who could actually pretend to know?)
Wave a moist pinky in the air and make it 3,650 maybe? (ie to the low side) -- On the assumption Merkel will still be doing what she currently is to get the result she wants -- Not that I know what it is?
452 Senator13 // Nov 27, 2011 at 8:43 am
My rough prediction is that by the end of the year the ASX will still be starting with a three. Who knows where exactly… It has been so volatile. But with the Europe mess I do not see it improving anytime soon…
Over the next 6 months I see it still trading in a pretty narrow sideways range like we have seen for the last year or so. Maybe in the vicinity of 3800-4200?
453 Biker // Nov 27, 2011 at 1:06 pm
Ned: “…who could actually pretend to know?”
* * * * *
454 Plornt // Nov 27, 2011 at 2:20 pm
I notice almost everyone has a downside bias atm on here. Thank christ i’m long
This drivel should not be taken as financial advice. Seek to obtain professional
advice before proceeding with any financial decision.
455 Stillgotshoeson // Nov 27, 2011 at 2:42 pm
Biker // Nov 27, 2011 at 1:06 pm
Ned: “…who could actually pretend to know?”
* * * * *
Well you yourself have admitted that the guys over at DRA saved you a motza when you made changes to your investments on their warnings.
It is not about knowing, it is about how you act/react to all the data available to you.
You have also agreed that people should take more interest and action on how they invest, be it in a superfund or outside a super fund.
People that have merely invested in the index funds have not done as well as some one whom may have taken a more proactive role on handling their investments.
Bias plays a big part as well..
The saying “past performance is no guarantee of future performance” rings true in all investments.
If the things you say are true about your property investments, then yes at a prime period of time for property you have been able to take advantage and do well, others of a similiar vintage may have had the very same opportunities and for whatever reason, did not take advantage of those boom times. Just because what has worked well for you for the last 30 years is no guarantee that they will work for others to the same extent over the next 30 years.
How low the ASX falls to, and how high Gold/Silver rise are mute points to my investment strategy. my strategy is to adjust my investments to suit the information available to me, the risk I am prepared to take and the preservation of capital as well as wealth creation.
456 Stillgotshoeson // Nov 27, 2011 at 2:44 pm
Plornt // Nov 27, 2011 at 2:20 pm
I notice almost everyone has a downside bias atm on here. Thank christ i’m long
Contrarian positions usually do well
457 Greg Atkinson // Nov 27, 2011 at 4:14 pm
Ned I think your call looks pretty good
I sometimes wonder why I even bother trying to guess where the market will go but it does make me think seriously about the outlook for the year ahead so maybe it serves some purpose….then again maybe it’s waste of time.
458 Lachlan // Nov 27, 2011 at 7:03 pm
I don’t really see any high probability targets for year end and the global situation is very volatile giving plenty scope for outside/unexpected shocks to push the market up or down.
Having said that I think 3600 would be the lowest point we’re likely to achieve for a closing between here and then with upside contained below 4600.
I am waiting this week to see if the DXY makes a big dash higher leaving the AUD/USD in bearish territory retesting 94 inviting targets in the 80′s. Its not a sure thing to translate that to ASX downside since cheaper local $ may limit downside (as higher AUDs seemed to restrict upside before) and given the chart compression anyhow. But I would be more bearish on the Dow which has quite some downside technical potential.
Greg I think blokes love to joust with each other over their market predictions, its fun… and always interesting to see how peoples perspectives change over time.
Looking forward to an interesting week I think. Europe is surely about to do something soon to resolve funding issues. Not sure what it may be
459 Ned S // Dec 1, 2011 at 8:22 am
I notice almost everyone has a downside bias atm on here. Thank christ i’m long
Contrarian positions usually do well
460 Greg Atkinson // Dec 1, 2011 at 9:24 am
Lachlan I don’t have my jost at hand right now meaning I have not been that active in terms of adjusting my positions for a while. I trimmed off some profits when they were available, but have not been in buying mode for all of 2011.
Hopefully next year we will see the markets quieten down and governments deal with problems rather than trying to paper over them. But that might be wishing for too much.
461 Biker // Dec 1, 2011 at 9:38 am
Lachlan: “Not sure what it may be
”
*****
But you called it, Lachlan. Five stars.
462 Lachlan // Dec 1, 2011 at 8:04 pm
I’m just waiting to see if I can give a 1000 point wide prediction and get it wrong now BP
I’m still neutral really but the market is on it’s way to 4400 here again after the reversal off 4000 I guess. Despite all the loosing so far this week though I am neutral still thinking we could have a violent smash down in metals and markets. If so it wont be far off now. 4400 or 4600 are good places to start a collapse. Not worried but…..I love it
463 Lachlan // Dec 2, 2011 at 5:58 am
I think we will have a more centralised finance system before the government insanity moderates Greg….and trade imbalances begin to reverse. Won’t be good for people who think generous government handouts last forever. Just a gut feeling anyhow.
464 Greg Atkinson // Dec 8, 2011 at 3:22 pm
If the Chinese property market continues to slide backwards then 2012 might be a little more tough than I expect.
In any case I think it’s wise for stock market investors to keep an eye on what the Chinese property market is doing. Also probably wise to pay a bit more attention to India.
465 Plornt // Dec 15, 2011 at 2:58 pm
System targets on GC (gold) reversal are 1440, potentially down to 1220. Multi-month reversal likely for GC or until targets hit, possibly following the path that silver took (silver leading indicator). Although this correlation, strong or otherwise, wasn’t used for potential system targets.
Can’t see any systems for a reversal on the XAO, so remain bullish XAO.
This drivel should not be taken as financial advice. Seek to obtain professional
advice before proceeding with any financial decision.
466 Plornt // Dec 16, 2011 at 11:13 am
Just to clarify above post:
Should have posted this GC setup earlier, but I missed this GC short setup as I wasn’t interested in gold at the time and doing something else; only caught my attention after it fell. But it triggered on 11th Nov, so thought to post it on here so as to help others. System doesn’t have anything to do with the moving average lines or support/resistance lines (i.e. 20/48) which I personally think are pretty useless, after my own experience with them. Have stopped using technical analysis and charts, as overall they are pretty useless for me (i’m sure they work for others) and my systems do not require charts.
Can’t find any systems for long USD, but am trying to find something, as that would give more credibility to the accuracy of the gold system targets, as there is obviously a negative correlation between the two.
This is a difficult market for taking positions in still, but I remain optimistic long term equities, albiet the ride may not be so smooth. Volatility is your friend if you can stomach it, which most people can’t.
This drivel should not be taken as financial advice. Seek to obtain professional
advice before proceeding with any financial decision.
467 Plornt // Dec 19, 2011 at 7:09 am
System is firing long XAO Targets 5,700. DD max 250 points.
At least there is statistical backing for a big bull move here now. It could be wrong, but I will back my system again. I have no idea why so many people are bearish right now. When the market breaks out of this range; there will be a lot of cash comming in off the sidelines.
DJIA I can see what systems others are using, but they are not high probability setups imo, and could go either way.
This drivel should not be taken as financial advice. Seek to obtain professional
advice before proceeding with any financial decision.
468 Stillgotshoeson // Dec 19, 2011 at 8:16 am
USA have okay’d a trillion dollar spend for the next 12 months, Europe is most likely to get an injection of funny money so a 5700 is not out of the realms of the possible at all Plornt.
I still think the ultimate trend line will continue, that is downwards… volatility is the name of the game and “relief” rallies on any thing resembling good news… panic sells on anything not good…
We COULD have 5 more years of this…
469 Plornt // Dec 19, 2011 at 8:34 am
I don’t really use trend lines Still, but I can see what you are referring to. The problem with trend lines is you can basically place them anywhere to suit your bullish or bearish bias. For instance if I place a trend line on the XAO intraday lows from 1984 to 2011 I could say that the 3800 intraday low XAO correction hit long term support, and is now bullish.
That money hitting the system should do the trick
Its always darkest before the dawn, and I doubt its going to turn pitch black on me. Rational confidence and optimism will win.
This drivel should not be taken as financial advice. Seek to obtain professional
advice before proceeding with any financial decision.
470 Plornt // Dec 19, 2011 at 8:48 am
Also long dated SPI futures are experiencing Normal Backwardation 9 months out; this is very odd as it should be in contango. I’ve noticed a lot of pricing errors in options given all the volatility that has been occuring. It seems a lot of trading firms are over pricing downside risk. This is not going to be pretty if they are on the wrong side, and the market turns heavily as my system outputs have inferred.
This drivel should not be taken as financial advice. Seek to obtain professional
advice before proceeding with any financial decision.
471 Greg Atkinson // Dec 19, 2011 at 9:30 am
BHP is trading today at just over $34 and that says a lot to me about how the market is pricing in the outlook for the next 6 months or so.
It doesn’t look like too many people believe that commodities prices are going to head back up to record high levels again anytime soon and the outlook for most G-& economies for 2012 is pretty grim.
I haven’t given up on a Santa/end of year rally yet although it’s not looking very likely at the moment.
472 Plornt // Dec 19, 2011 at 9:31 am
Geezus talk about panic. Its almost like people are selling first; worrying about why later. There is too much focus on capital preservation; if you wanted to focus on capital preservation you should have been doing that at the top of the market; not now.
Retail sector is looking very interesting; blood everywhere, and lots talking about further falls.
This drivel should not be taken as financial advice. Seek to obtain professional
advice before proceeding with any financial decision.
473 Plornt // Dec 19, 2011 at 9:35 am
This is starting to remind me of May 2009. Just feels the same.
I have no opinions on BHP Greg. Have not run my systems through it.
This drivel should not be taken as financial advice. Seek to obtain professional
advice before proceeding with any financial decision.
474 Biker // Dec 19, 2011 at 9:42 am
Shoes: “We COULD have 5 more years of this… ”
Jeez, you’ll be an old bloke before you get that sports car, son!
475 Plornt // Dec 19, 2011 at 9:44 am
Well I think we are at the XAO bottom or close to it. Next rally is going to heavily breach the 200dma imo, and based off purely TA the DJIA is headed for a double top around 12,800, but I hate basing decisions purely off TA, so this is just a guess at best.
This drivel should not be taken as financial advice. Seek to obtain professional
advice before proceeding with any financial decision.
476 Plornt // Dec 19, 2011 at 9:47 am
I think people are misinterpreting the down slopping 200dma as a bearish down trend instead of a coiled break out (purely based on TA which I don’t use to base my decisions off as its too hit and miss). They are trying to correlate it with the 2008 crash, can see what the masses are thinking; thank god I am on the other side of that!
This drivel should not be taken as financial advice. Seek to obtain professional
advice before proceeding with any financial decision.
477 Ned S // Dec 19, 2011 at 1:06 pm
Bank of Canada reckon it’s either a slow muddle through or a bust:
“On one track, Europe’s debt problems explode, spraying shrapnel across the global financial landscape. Global credit freezes up, economies slow, commodity prices plunge as they did in 2009, and the world takes trade-invested Canada into a second recession, maybe as deep as what occurred three years ago.
On the other track, European policy-makers are able to stop the hemorrhaging and prevent contagion. Markets rejoice, confidence is restored, cash-rich corporations invest again, commodity prices strengthen, Canadian exports rebound and the economy continues its current modest expansion.
Pick one or the other, economist say, there is almost nothing in between.
“It’s not quite a binary outcome, but it’s pretty extreme alternative scenarios,” Craig Wright, the Royal Bank’s chief economist, says of the quandary facing forecasters.”
and
“As Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney stressed this month, the world is trying to emerge from a “debt super cycle” that has taken overall debt — government, households and non-financial corporations — across the big G7 economies to about 300 per cent of gross domestic product. Such flagrant irresponsibility will take years to overcome.”
plus
“TD Bank chief economist Craig Alexander says the most likely scenario remains that European policy-makers will be smart enough to avoid the worst, since they will be first over the edge.”
and
“Alexander says those who expect a more robust or steady rebound — as many did last year — are probably fooling themselves.”
http://thechronicleherald.ca/business/44000-economic-forecast-yet-more-uncertainty
G’day Don!
478 Plornt // Dec 19, 2011 at 2:11 pm
“Pick one or the other, economist say, there is almost nothing in between.”
Thats true. Its possible for the DJIA to just go sideways; which means value stocks should outperform if purchased at sensible prices.
If you search through the SPX quite a few value based equities bottomed in August and have been respecting those lows since. Many high quality large-cap DJIA stocks are trading at historically low price to earnings ratios. For instance Microsoft is trading on a 2012 pe of about 9, even though in the last 17 years its had eps growth every year, but one, and clearly has an ability to raise prices on many on its products without seriously affecting demand. There are many other high quality large-caps trading at odd multiples.
If someone can show me a system that will identify a high probability setup that indicates there is a strong likelihood of further falls I will be open to listening. I’ve not been able to find one that is better than a toss of a coin, or in the case of technical analysis pattern recognition (e.g. Elliot Wave), doesn’t contain any inevitable subjectivity and bias.
This drivel should not be taken as financial advice. Seek to obtain professional
advice before proceeding with any financial decision.
479 Plornt // Dec 19, 2011 at 5:53 pm
BBG (Billabong) is firing long. I have entered this; 3% of portfolio. Max drawdown is not small though, 30% from the current closing price, but it is a temporary drawdown if long term investing (and provided the directors are not asinine). Probably get another wash out. I will double position if it goes to $1.15 (i very much doubt it will get there).
Billabong will need to offload non-core brands to cut debt, but the core Billabong brands are very strong and profitable. Seems they just took on lots of poor acquisitions and let their debt levels get them into a bind. But this is hardly a debt laden company that can’t produce a lot of free cash flow under normalised retail conditions. Everything reverts back to the mean eventually; overshooting and undershooting on the way.
The founder of the company owns a significant stake still, so I am more at ease with a person on the board who has significant interests in the company since inception.
Retail sector will benefit from a lot of pent up demand from people postponing their christmas shopping; which may flow into the January sales period. I’ve looked a what a few aussies are doing with their money on various sites and consensus appears to be there are a lot of people who are excessively saving out of fear of what might occur. Additionally I ordered some equipment the other day and found the wholesaler was running abnormally low inventory levels, so there was a delay. Not enough of a sample size to make a definitive and rational conclusion obviously.
In any event it appears when confidence starts to comeback there may be a flood of money moving from under people’s mattresses and start spending again; around and around we go and the retail cycle starts all over again. Certainly the stock market are now pricing in a lot of the worst case scenarios for retailers.
This drivel should not be taken as financial advice. Seek to obtain professional
advice before proceeding with any financial decision.
480 Plornt // Dec 20, 2011 at 11:15 am
Unloaded my BBG position for a small loss (0.6% of portfolio) as i’m not comfortable with the uncertainty, even though my system is saying there is a high probability rise. Added to my long dated SPI futures long.
This drivel should not be taken as financial advice. Seek to obtain professional
advice before proceeding with any financial decision.
481 Plornt // Dec 20, 2011 at 6:29 pm
May 21 2011: Post 211
“At the sametime, statistically theres a very high probability that DJIA is 11,000 or below by EOY. This is a very confusing setup, which is only making me more cautious and confused longterm.
Most of the charts in the XAO look terrible, lots in downtrends. So even if I wanted to invest longterm theres not many buy signals. Probably wise to avoid small caps, given the risks.
The LT buy signals may only come post August-Oct correction, or we could correct heavily in June, who knows. One would assume the quality growing large caps will more likely go up in late stage bull markets and into the foreseeable future. Probably the best course is to wait for the DJIA to implode during Aug-Sept and then take longterm positions in the XAO, or slowly accumulate with the knowledge that it could fall further, short term.”
Well most of these things have played out; so I will continue to stick with my plan and buy value whilst everyone is racing to protect capital at the bottom of a market.
There is a high probability for 20-30% returns for the XAO next year using the same system that gave a high probability for the sub 11,000 for the DJIA; which occured. So when this “bear market” turns you better be fast.
This drivel should not be taken as financial advice. Seek to obtain professional
advice before proceeding with any financial decision.
482 Plornt // Dec 20, 2011 at 7:05 pm
There is obviously the possibility for further falls for which I am hedged, but I am looking to unwind all of my puts and shorts into the next widely anticipated fall (short NCM and HPQ), but I have a strange feeling it might not be as deep as what a lot of people are expecting.
This drivel should not be taken as financial advice. Seek to obtain professional
advice before proceeding with any financial decision.
483 Plornt // Dec 20, 2011 at 11:32 pm
“Starts increased 9.3 percent to a 685,000 annual rate, exceeding the highest estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News and the highest level since April 2010, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. Building permits, a proxy for future construction, also climbed to a more than one- year high.”
Housing recovery in America underway?
This drivel should not be taken as financial advice. Seek to obtain professional
advice before proceeding with any financial decision.
484 Plornt // Dec 21, 2011 at 2:13 am
Dec 19:
“System is firing long XAO Targets 5,700. DD max 250 points.
At least there is statistical backing for a big bull move here now. It could be wrong, but I will back my system again. I have no idea why so many people are bearish right now. When the market breaks out of this range; there will be a lot of cash comming in off the sidelines.”
System is right again; surprise surprise! TA doesn’t work consistently. Elliot wave is hopeless imo.
This drivel should not be taken as financial advice. Seek to obtain professional
advice before proceeding with any financial decision.
485 Stillgotshoeson // Dec 21, 2011 at 8:06 am
Plornt // Dec 21, 2011 at 2:13 am
Dec 19:
I have no idea why so many people are bearish right now.
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/US-economy-markets-Wall-Street-interest-rates-Fede-pd20111221-PQT3U?OpenDocument&src=sph&src=rot
There is simply too much debt, both Government and Personal. More than can be repaid.
More buckets of money may buy us more short term relief, but the longer this persists, the worse it is going to be when it falls over.
486 Plornt // Dec 21, 2011 at 8:47 am
Yes I am aware of the US debt issues; you would need to be living on a deserted island to not have some knowledge of the situation. There will likely be a US government bond implosion arising from such issues some time in the foreseeable future; leading to higher bond yields:
“Yet, as Allister Heath writes in The Spectator this week, “UK and American governments can be loaned money – and, in effect, be paid for the privilege. This is crazy. It shows that the bond markets are well and truly in major bubble territory, their valuations as absurd as the rocketing subprime properties of yore.”"
http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/bonds/government-bond-bubble-13901
Obviously buying silver / gold will benefit us if such a scenario played out in the future. Well I know that is one reason why I am looking to add to my silver investment holdings on further weakness.
Re: Bearish sentiment; I guess what I was trying to understand is why most retail investors remain bearish and concomitantly start pulling funds out of markets, and look to “safe haven” term deposits en mass when the markets are now pricing in a lot of the fears that are being widely reported in the media.
This drivel should not be taken as financial advice. Seek to obtain professional
advice before proceeding with any financial decision.
487 Stillgotshoeson // Dec 21, 2011 at 9:52 am
Australia it is Personal debt load that is the problem, yes a small amount of the population have money and are cashed up but a much larger portion are living week to week and some of those are going backwards.
I agree with you Plornt that many companies are now at attractive pricing and may not drop that much more despite what the market does.
I still expect the ASX to go below 3000 in the short to medium term, most of the drop is going to come from the RIO, BHP and the Banks.. Most other shares have already been hammered. The top 10 stocks have such a huge weighting on the index.
I am a fundamentalist trader.. The 2 biggest fundamentals are fear and greed, having an understanding of the fear and greed in the economy has enabled me to grow my portfolio consistently.
My timing may not be day perfect but picking the sentiment has been very good.. Good enough to consistently profit from it.
488 Plornt // Dec 21, 2011 at 12:11 pm
“I agree with you Plornt that many companies are now at attractive pricing and may not drop that much more despite what the market does.”
There are too many cheap companies and not enough cash lol. Just purchased some Harvey Norman stock as I believe the retail sector is way oversold and conditions will improve into January. The fact that Gerry Harvey has bght some also give credence to the possibility retail sales are picking up. Didn’t make the same mistake twice and bought a better quality retailer; tried not to be foolish!
This drivel should not be taken as financial advice. Seek to obtain professional
advice before proceeding with any financial decision.
489 Plornt // Dec 21, 2011 at 12:18 pm
“I am a fundamentalist trader.. The 2 biggest fundamentals are fear and greed, having an understanding of the fear and greed in the economy has enabled me to grow my portfolio consistently.”
I am moving towards fundamentals investing. You have to put up with more volatility but that is where the serious capital gains are made. Passive investing; less is more.
This drivel should not be taken as financial advice. Seek to obtain professional
advice before proceeding with any financial decision.
490 Plornt // Dec 21, 2011 at 12:29 pm
Still what do you use to value companies; do you have a system?
This drivel should not be taken as financial advice. Seek to obtain professional
advice before proceeding with any financial decision.
491 Plornt // Dec 21, 2011 at 12:33 pm
“The fact that Gerry Harvey has bght some also give credence to the possibility retail sales are picking up. Didn’t make the same mistake twice and bought a better quality retailer; tried not to be foolish!”
My system is also firing for Harvey Norman, not that I base my decisions to enter an investment on that fact.
This drivel should not be taken as financial advice. Seek to obtain professional
advice before proceeding with any financial decision.
492 Stillgotshoeson // Dec 21, 2011 at 2:52 pm
Yes I have a system, I don’t wish to disclose it.
I have 2 superannuation accounts, 1 an industry 1 through work (excellent life insurance policy) and I have a Self Managed Super Fund. The downside to super is the locking away, however the tax benefits are excellent, especially in regards to CGT.
I also have investments outside of Superanuation.
My investments are structured to cover different aspects of my life at different times.
No matter how much I like a company I will still always limit my financial exposure to it.
My plan is to retire or at the very least semi retire before 50 and live off my investments until I can access my super which will fund the next stage of my life, so far all is going to plan.
I have no desire to own a McMansion nor a sports car.
I have seen too many people work past 60, 65, 70 even and have poor quality of life afterwards or worse not live to enjoy retirement at all.
To quote from Barefoot Investor.. “I don’t need to buy stuff I don’t need to impress people I do not like”
@HVN I expect it to go a little lower than this circa $1.70 .
493 Biker // Dec 21, 2011 at 4:24 pm
Shoes: “I have no desire to own a McMansion nor a sports car.”
Typo over at DRA, then?
494 Stillgotshoeson // Dec 21, 2011 at 4:36 pm
Biker // Dec 21, 2011 at 4:24 pm
Shoes: “I have no desire to own a McMansion nor a sports car.”
Typo over at DRA, then?
Must be, I have posted multiple times over on DRA that I don’t need a McMansion or a sports car* Terminology is usually Ferrari but inference is the same…
495 Ned S // Dec 21, 2011 at 4:41 pm
Wouldn’t mind seeing people’s thoughts on what interest rates might do over the next 5, 10 and 20 years. They’re going to be extremely important for long term investors is my thought -- As a baseline. My personal feeling is that they’ll remain historically low. Though I’m also quite concerned I could be absolutely and totally 100% wrong.
496 Plornt // Dec 21, 2011 at 4:41 pm
Well I ran some systems through the EUR.USD. It says to go long but there is just too much risk in it for me to get involved; although, i may change my mind hmm. Perhaps long dated FXE calls?
From a purely TA perspective there seems to be people likening the EUR.USD price patterns to the 1979 collapse; well thats what i’m interpreting it as from putting myself on the other side of the trade. That price pattern for the last 9 months looks more likely to bounce and form a double top @ 1.60, but again this is just guessing as TA is seldom reliable (for me anyways). So many people are calling for falls on the EUR.USD. Seem similar to r when i went long the EUR.USD around 1.25 in 2010. Wish I rode it a lot further as it went to 1.50! I may buy the EUR.USD for a long term hold; not sure. I love these situations where everyone despises it, predicts the end, and they are all sitting on one side of the boat!
This drivel should not be taken as financial advice. Seek to obtain professional
advice before proceeding with any financial decision.
497 Plornt // Dec 21, 2011 at 4:43 pm
“From a purely TA perspective there seems to be people likening the EUR.USD price patterns to the 1979 collapse”
That should read 1980-1985 collapse
498 Stillgotshoeson // Dec 21, 2011 at 4:44 pm
I do however like these… Especially the Mk VII
They can be had for less than $30k so not what I would call a costly vehicle…
http://www.bolwellcarclub.com.au/models.html
499 Biker // Dec 21, 2011 at 4:49 pm
Shoes: “I have posted multiple times over on DRA that I don’t need a McMansion or a sports car…”
Yes, many many times. Once was probably enough.
Wondered when I saw your ‘need’ if this was an early MLC…
500 Plornt // Dec 21, 2011 at 5:58 pm
“Could do wonders for your social life. Too many young folk spend the first 45 years furiously trying to amass wealth in an apoplectic economic climate inconducive to same: government interference, climate-change proponents, collapsing nations, swarms of economic refugees…!”
Biker is getting bearish — it must be time to have net long exposure…
This drivel should not be taken as financial advice. Seek to obtain professional
advice before proceeding with any financial decision.
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