Shareswatch Australia

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• 501 Ned S // Dec 21, 2011 at 5:59 pm

  And here’s me just sinking a bottle of spirits (tho’ one of them’s a bit unusual -- I generally try to keep it to a bottle of port -- A tad less even?) and sort of continuing to watch the world do its thing …

• 502 Biker // Dec 21, 2011 at 6:26 pm

  Plornt: Biker is getting bearish — it must be time to have net long exposure…

  Nah, y’see we avoid all that government/greenie/GFC stuff with property. Take all their solar subsidies, cut out the letters in the ‘I Support Fishing Sanctuaries’ stickers so they read “I Fish Sanctuaries’, and make sure we’re invested only in countries which sidestepped the GFC… .

  Any port in a storm, Ned, but The Grove’s Vintage Shiraz Port and Donnelly River’s TP are hard-to-beat… .

• 503 Plornt // Dec 21, 2011 at 6:49 pm

  “Nah, y’see we avoid all that government/greenie/GFC stuff with property. Take all their solar subsidies, cut out the letters in the ‘I Support Fishing Sanctuaries’ stickers so they read “I Fish Sanctuaries’, and make sure we’re invested only in countries which sidestepped the GFC… ”

  Sounds like you are very wise and prudent investor by sticking within your circle of competence (i.e. real estate). You seem to be always rational, intelligent and a modest person with much to be modest about. Hope you continue to do well .

  This drivel should not be taken as financial advice. Seek to obtain professional
  advice before proceeding with any financial decision.

• 504 Plornt // Dec 21, 2011 at 7:31 pm

  “@HVN I expect it to go a little lower than this circa $1.70 .”

  Yes Still thats always a possibility. Based on trailing earnings its running on a pe of of 8.5. Obviously there will be some drop in earnings this FY, but there is enough margin of safety with that sort of trailing pe; which already is reduced from the ~28c eps peak. I doubt earnings would collapse given Gerry is buying and you still have below bookvalue protection. In the last 10 years HVN has only traded below bookvalue once, and that was during the March 09 market bottom.

  This drivel should not be taken as financial advice. Seek to obtain professional
  advice before proceeding with any financial decision.

• 505 Biker // Dec 21, 2011 at 7:33 pm

  Plornt: “…a modest person with much to be modest about.”

  Yes, one might even contend I’m cerebrally-challenged, a ‘mum’n'dad investor’ who never strayed where none but angels tread. These ‘systems’ intrigue me. My brother had ‘a system’.
  Used it successfully at Burswood Casino for a while. Sadly we were never quite smart enough to create ‘a system’… but we were able to pay off all his debts and save my parents’ farm.
  We figured out later a coin toss might have served him better.

  Quite envious of everyone with ‘a system’. Wouldn’t have a _clue_ how to go about developing one. Education system let me down there… . Every time a sports car passes me, even a KITty car, I think to myself “Now that fella must have a system… .”

  “Hope you continue to do well”

  Thanks. Nothing to it, really. Owe much of it to ‘Property for Dummies’ Random House, $19.95.

• 506 Plornt // Dec 21, 2011 at 7:48 pm

  “Used it successfully at Burswood Casino for a while. Sadly we were never quite smart enough to create ‘a system’… but we were able to pay off all his debts and save my parents’ farm.
  We figured out later a coin toss might have served him better.”

  Sorry to hear that. My systems are adaptive so they will change as the markets change. Also I continue to create new systems all the time so loss of edges are not a problem for me. If the system doesn’t work anymore my risk management will simply force me to stop using said system. My systems are basically tied to my natural ability to be creative, which i’ve had since i’ve been very young. So I guess it would be difficult to replicate as you would need to be able to find the system variances which can be tricky and requires a lot of creativity.

  You can keep doubting me Biker i love it; will drive me to generate even better returns and make my risk management water tight. You’ve been continuously skeptical of me yet I am still here and you are still trying to find holes to discredit me . You are a very poor judge of character it seems . Results win over time not words and superior english skills .

  BTW you did mention awhile ago you used simple systems for your real estate endeavours .

  This drivel should not be taken as financial advice. Seek to obtain professional
  advice before proceeding with any financial decision.

• 507 Ned S // Dec 21, 2011 at 11:55 pm

  Haven’t read the thread thru but just saw the “a modest person with much to be modest about” bit -- LMFAO! (A Winnie C rip orff??? -- Or some such? And good fun.)

  All good … Will come back tomorrow and attempt to digest a bit more thoroughly perhaps -- On the off chance someone’s told me what interest rates are gunna do over the next 5, 10 and 20 years. (But it’s all good for a laugh in the interim.)

  Cheers to all … Life’s a HOOT!

• 508 Stillgotshoeson // Dec 22, 2011 at 12:19 am

  Ned S // Dec 21, 2011 at 11:55 pm

  Will come back tomorrow and attempt to digest a bit more thoroughly perhaps — On the off chance someone’s told me what interest rates are gunna do over the next 5, 10 and 20 years. (But it’s all good for a laugh in the interim.)

  They are going to do what they have always done Ned… Go up and down
  They are closer to their low point than they are to their high point of the cycle…
  Financially it makes more sense to allow for higher rates not budget for lower rates…

• 509 Plornt // Dec 22, 2011 at 6:57 am

  Thought this might interest some people --
  Candlestick Charting not profitable:
  “Using robust statistical techniques, we find that candlestick trading rules are not profitable
  when applied to DJIA component stocks over 1/1/1992 – 31/12/2002 period. Neither bullish
  or bearish candlestick single lines or patterns provide market timing signals that are any better
  than what would be expected by chance. Basing ones trading decisions solely on these
  techniques does not seem sensible but we cannot rule out the possibility that they compliment
  some other market timing techniques.”
  http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=980583

  Hammer candles can break down further. For example look at the supposed “hangman” candle on the XAO on Dec 18 2007. Albiet the candle was not perfect 2 x line to body, but did not have a shadow. You got a very short term bounce and then crashed to 5222. It was just so unrealible over time frames exceeding several weeks. Might as well go to the casino or throw some darts .

  Granted there are many other more complicated candle patterns to indentify. I remember trying many of them like Doji Stars or Downward Gapping Tsukis and sailor moon siamese ninjasticks all with results no better than a toss of a coin.

  http://www.amazon.com/Evidence-Based-Technical-Analysis-Scientific-Statistical/dp/0470008741/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1324504641&sr=8-1

  This drivel should not be taken as financial advice. Seek to obtain professional
  advice before proceeding with any financial decision.

• 510 Plornt // Dec 22, 2011 at 8:15 am

  “On the off chance someone’s told me what interest rates are gunna do over the next 5, 10 and 20 years. (But it’s all good for a laugh in the interim.)”

  Ned I have an article somewhere that intelligently and rationally discusses what you are looking for. Will find it and post a bit later.

• 511 Plornt // Dec 22, 2011 at 6:57 pm

  Well i’m off again, will comeback in a few months to see how things pan out, as I have other things I must do. XAO should be higher by then. Good luck and hope everyone is successful with their investments and/or trading.

  This drivel should not be taken as financial advice. Seek to obtain professional
  advice before proceeding with any financial decision.

• 512 Lachlan // Dec 22, 2011 at 7:18 pm

  Re TA….I just like to use some simple support and resistance concepts… and some indicators like RSI to some degree and divergences…. maybe studying some correlations. Maybe refrain from being caught up in the dramas. Make a fundamental decision, buy cheap or at a support/oversold area, stick with the program…buy and hold maybe.

  Good luck with your endeavours Plornt…make sure you come back to talk to us if something blows up in the meantime

• 513 Plornt // Dec 22, 2011 at 7:32 pm

  “Maybe refrain from being caught up in the dramas. Make a fundamental decision, buy cheap or at a support/oversold area, stick with the program…buy and hold maybe.”

  Probably the smartest way to do it I think fundamental long term investors are the main winners in this game which I have switched to.

  This drivel should not be taken as financial advice. Seek to obtain professional
  advice before proceeding with any financial decision.

• 514 Stillgotshoeson // Dec 22, 2011 at 8:10 pm

  Fundamentals are the way to go…

  These include, but not limited to:

  Economic conditions, Personal Risk Factor, What the company does, likely demand, company debt levels, country (sovereign risk)
  Company Management (google directors for prior information)

  Research is your friend, maybe time consuming but can save you thousands.

  See you on your return Plornt. Expectations are for more volatility in the market next year, maybe QEIII from the US Fed in first half 2012…

• 515 Lachlan // Dec 22, 2011 at 9:14 pm

  how do you see NCM now Shoes? I missed my $30 bottom while out bush. Might buy tomorrow..maybe. I was looking at a couple divi payers… maybe a coal play. I like the way the markets are shaping now for the short-med term…esp if we rally straight back to 4350 from here.

• 516 Stillgotshoeson // Dec 22, 2011 at 10:09 pm

  Psychological support level around $30, not fundamental so may go below. I think still good buying at around these levels.

  SBM under $2 bucks are excellent buying as well I believe.

  Still may see a bit more decline in Gold/Silver prices before the run up again.

  Accumulate shares on dips as I believe you currently do anyway.

  PRU are looking good at these levels.. Made over 20k on them last time, bought at similiar level and sold just over $4. Have done the same bought more @$2.52

• 517 Ficus // Jan 8, 2012 at 9:14 pm

  Hi

  Just wondering how people feel about the price of BHP at the moment. I was going to start trading it on low margins. Maybe 1-1.5%. Looks like there is support at about $34 and resistence about $37-38

  Cheers F

• 518 Greg Atkinson // Jan 9, 2012 at 8:21 am

  Ficus at this stage I am wary of the miners simply because prices for iron ore, coking coal & copper for example appear to be trending downwards. BHP is certainly a quality blue-chip stock worth watching though.

• 519 Ficus // Jan 9, 2012 at 10:41 am

  Thanks Greg, Does anyone hold GBG. I have some, they at a low but I think will be good in next 1-2 years. Any thoughts?

• 520 Stillgotshoeson // Jan 10, 2012 at 2:01 pm

  100k Portfolio.

  IMF 7407 @ $1.35 $9999.45
  ABY 13000 @ $.765 $9945
  GRY* 8500 @ $1.165 $9902.50
  PRU* 3900 @ $2.54 $9906
  FML* 185000 @ $.054 $9990
  RAU* 2500000 @ $.004 $10000
  BPT* 7500 @ $1.30 $9750
  API 37700 @ $.265 $9990.50
  BKP 714000 @ $.014 $9996
  CTN 11000 @ $.89 $9790

  Total + $199.50 Brokerage $99278.45

  Shares with an * are shares I currently own.

  Will update from time to time if not trading. Will update same day as I make a trade.

  These are not recommendations to buy and I am not a licensed financial advisor. Own diligence is required whenever investing.

• 521 Stillgotshoeson // Jan 23, 2012 at 3:17 pm

  ABY 0.880 13000 $11440
  API 0.285 37700 $10744.50
  BKP 0.015 714000 $10710
  BPT 1.490 7500 $11175
  CTN 0.915 11000 $10065
  FML 0.053 185000 $ 9805
  GRY 1.360 8500 $11560
  IMF 1.350 7407 $ 9999.45
  PRU 2.830 3900 $11037
  RAU* 0.003 2500000 $ 7500

  100K Portfolio $104035.95
  + $ 721.55 Cash
  $104757.50

  * Volumes have been extremely low.

  No trades made to date.

• 522 Greg Atkinson // Jan 24, 2012 at 9:58 am

  I am in sitting on my hands mode at the moment. The Baltic Dry Index is down near the the GFC low and we have the IMF talking about a possible global economic depression. I get the feeling that we might have a nasty move downwards after the Chinese New Year break and that the All Ords/ASX could slide below 4000.

• 523 Ned S // Jan 24, 2012 at 10:39 am

  A thought that comes to my mind is that the US seems to be feeling happy that they aren’t doing as bad as lots of others so the DJIA goes up and our market gets some spin off. But given the hand wringing and nasty predictions out there by those one assumes know a bit (IMF and World Bank), markets going up now does seem strange.

• 524 Stillgotshoeson // Jan 24, 2012 at 11:10 am

  I fully expect the All Ords/ASX to fall, Still think we will hit new (GFC) low before it is all over. Not enough to stop me having some exposure to the market, some sectors should outperform still.

  Volatility will continue for a while yet imho. All Ords/ASX are going to be up and down.

  DUe to my belief of a new low to be reached, but no idea when, I will continue to shy away from the the banks and the 2 big miners for a little while longer yet.

  If the rumoured Japanese banks do come here, that will impact to some extent our big four and their profit line. Reduced earnings will equal reduced dividends.

  A friend of mine (English) living in Denmark, works for a ship broking firm, he says things are very quiet in the shipping world…

• 525 Lachlan // Jan 28, 2012 at 4:02 pm

  Short term we will almost certainly run to 4350/4400 on the xjo and 1.08 on the aud/usd before some kind of a pause or reversal.
  Nice run up on my shares continued last Friday with a further 1.7% gain overall.
  Action has been nice and strong on gold and silver but the metal markets are paper mirages still so I wont rule out the possibility of lower targets… however the chances near term are decreasing as the action becomes more vigorous.
  My position for the long term on all these things remains bullish. Intermediate term I stay neutral until this range breaks up.
  I guess if we are to go lower first Shoes then it could be after a rally here to 4400 or 4600 or even back to 5000 odd.

  BDI certainly does look sad Greg… in the news a lot this last week or two. Stocks may still rally, or maybe not…they can be irrational…anybody’s guess.

• 526 Stillgotshoeson // Jan 29, 2012 at 2:05 pm

  4500 +/- 100 or so I can see, 5000 I just can not see happening without actual money printing in the Northern Hemisphere, as opposed to talk of money printing.

  Europe is still a basket case. Unemployment/underemployment are starting to rise here and further rate reductions on mortgage rates are looking to be minimal if any into the near future regardless of what the RBA does. These are the things I expected to occur last year but “can kicking” delayed it a little longer.

  We are coming to the end of the road and soon there will be no where to kick the can anymore.

  Bank. “we see you have maxed out your credit card Mr Nation, here have an increased limit”
  Bank “we see you ave maxed out your credit card again Mr Nation, here have a limit increase”

  Can only happen for so long then it is over.

  I think we will see the money printing this half of 2012.. How long it boosts the market for remains to be seen.

• 527 Lachlan // Jan 29, 2012 at 2:33 pm

  USDX has made a reversal too Shoes. Whether its a pause before more inflows to treasuries begin or a the start of a decent sell off I don’t know.
  You say Europe is still a basket case, I agree and despite talk of Greek default ect I tend to suspect this will be a slow band aid removal with political motivations key to that suspicion. And therefore as this process continues I can see a lesser chance of a quick resumption in up trend and higher chances of sideways grinding below the 5000 area and even a belt down to 09 lows and back. If we go lower than that…I hope we don’t but if so then so be it.

  The Fed will print everything they need whether they tell us or not.

• 528 Ficus // Jan 29, 2012 at 6:52 pm

  Does anyone know much about the mining services sector. I am looking at making an investment in Bradken, Monadelphous, Decmil or something similar. Interested in small caps. At the moment swaying towards Decmil ( good track history and High ROE).

  Cheers

• 529 Lachlan // Jan 29, 2012 at 8:22 pm

  I am no expert Ficus, won’t speak for the others. I like to make a few predictions with the fellas here for fun but they’re just personal views and not advice. I like to make sure my shares have some cash reserves, a good market and expectation of earnings or a big find but beyond that I am price chart analyses trader but an amateur. Price movements give at least some hint of what every market participant is thinking whether mum and pops or professionals or manipulators.

  On QE here is a link to show the program in some of it’s glory

  http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/01/living-in-a-qe-world/

  I believe it is possible this program may endure for a long time while all sorts of structural changes take place across the globe…..and depending on the tolerance of the masses.

• 530 Greg Atkinson // Jan 30, 2012 at 8:11 am

  Ficus Monadelphous is is a stock within the Shareswatch Random Portfolio so can get some idea of how its share price has been tracking by looking here: Random Porfolio

• 531 Stillgotshoeson // Feb 3, 2012 at 9:48 am

  My Bolivian Play has taken a hit to the downside Lachlan on fears of nationalisation as discussed last year.

  IMF 7407 @ $1.31.5 $9740.20
  ABY 13000 @ $.89.5 $11635
  GRY* 8500 @ $1.32.5 $11262.50
  PRU* 3900 @ $2.96 $11544
  FML* 185000 @ $.054 $9990
  BPT* 7500 @ $1.495 $11212.50
  API 37700 @ $.295 $11121.50
  BKP 714000 @ $.016 $11424
  CTN 11000 @ $.995 $10954

  Sold RAU 2500000 @ .002 Loss $5000

  100k Portfolio Shares $98883 Cash $5721 Total $104605

• 532 Lachlan // Feb 3, 2012 at 6:33 pm

  I have shares like that which are highly speculative and they are also highly volatile. They go up and down by massive percentages. The reason I have a very small position on explorers is because of the oversize gains available. If I wait long enough I will pick up a 5-10X gain….granted its possible one of them may blow up. The winners should cover the losses easily. My rule is not to sell in any down draft and I can only rest easy with that because I invest small enough to not give a hoot if they hit zero. The upside on a share like RAU was obviously measured in 1000′s of % and that remains true even if they do fail for those reasons we talked about last year.
  My position on shares overall is small but I love the game of course and will keep building a quality portfolio as are you. Otherwise I am mostly physical assets. Looking to buy a block this year also for my business (which is overtaking my house) but in a growth area and I expect to get a very good discount on the price.

• 533 Lachlan // Feb 3, 2012 at 6:42 pm

  I’m not saying that Id hold the RAU’s either Shoes. I know we both use differing strategies and there are plenty that work.

• 534 Stillgotshoeson // Feb 3, 2012 at 7:40 pm

  I still have my holding of RAU Lachlan. The 100k Portfolio is not a real portfolio, It is up just to see how it would do if traded in the real world. It does however contain some companies I do hold shares in.

  My direct exposure is not great. I aready have significant gains to offset the loss if it goes belly up. Current position of the company is they are holding enough cash for the next 6 months. They are in mid contract for the sale of their North Queensland assets for scrip and cash in another company.

  Current workings at the Bolivian mine are suspended further to discussions with the Bolivian Government. Republics Bolivian mine had received great interest from companies willing to (help) finance the mine, however all companies expressed concerns over the Bolivian Governments willingness to nationalise mines at the moment.

  Suspension of the mine and a willingness to abandon the project may prompt the BG to offer some sort of deal, even if they intend to “amend” such deals in the future. Get the mine to production stage then take it over

  Even allowing for the “supposed” hit on the 100k portfolio it is still in front after the loss (capital loss carried over against future capital gain on sale)

  Going over other share picks to add to the portfolio to replace RAU.

  Might put a dividend play in the portfolio.. Will think about it over the weekend.

  The coffee shop is still doing very well, partner wants to expand the business to another shop. Has offered to buy me out if I want at a handy profit to my initial outlay. Tempting. I don’t do any work at the place, I was just a financial partner. There is a dwelling above the shop, he wants to try and buy it and open it up as an upstairs area.

• 535 Stillgotshoeson // Feb 21, 2012 at 5:28 pm

  IMF 7407 @ $1.35 $9999.45
  ABY 13000 @ $..78 $10140
  GRY* 8500 @ $1.24 $10540
  PRU* 3900 @ $2.87 $11193
  FML* 185000 @ $.052 $9620
  BPT* 7500 @ $1.685 $12637.5
  API 37700 @ $.28 $10556
  BKP 714000 @ $.015 $10710
  CTN 11000 @ $1.03 $11330

  Dividends CTN 3.8 cents per share $418

  Shares $96725

  Cash $ 6137

  Total $102862

• 536 Ned S // Feb 22, 2012 at 7:55 pm

  We’ve been in a bull market for close to three years now. So just out of very general interest, how long do bull markets last “on average”? (And is that even a sensible question to ask?)

• 537 Stillgotshoeson // Feb 23, 2012 at 11:16 am

  Secular Bull Markets can go a decade or more, Primary trend markets are 3 to 5 years, With downturns lasting 18 months or so.

  I do not think we are in a secular bull market at this time and the primary trend will turn to the downside.

• 538 Plornt // Feb 24, 2012 at 2:13 pm

  “We’ve been in a bull market for close to three years now. So just out of very general interest, how long do bull markets last “on average”? (And is that even a sensible question to ask?)”

  3-5 years usually on a cyclical basis. Secular bull markets go for 17.5 years and likewise bears. We are still in a secular bear market, so there will likely be another crash before the secular Bull starts, but that is likely 3-4 years from now according to my system. The XAO has returned very poorly over the last few years mean reversion is going to occur, and people will be scampering to get long. People seem to be correlating this with the 87 crash, and proceeding double bottom? Yet not accounting for the timeframes for such movements to occur are probably multiples gives the duration of the previous cyclical bull. Even so history doesn’t repeat it rhymes, so analysing 90s or 80s corrections is futile in terms of consistency of timing. Noone can time things property. I’d rather be early than underweight into a cyclical bullmarket, and look foolish at the end of it. If you buy value your downside is limited in the long term.

  I have started pulling out of American equities due to valuation concerns where price is too close to intrinsic value (excluding financials), and shifting more into Australian equities given the massive disparity. XAO should really be 6,000 right now; its that simple. Massive multi-year move comming. I couldn’t be more bullish Australian equities right now. Some of the company valuations are redicuous.

  My LT system for the DJIA says the bull ends 2014 and likewise for the XAO; followed by 2017 as the secular buy entry (albiet it may occur in 2015 or 2016). That said my system will adapt if the Bull keeps going (it will keep me in moves up to 10 years). There is every chance these XAO levels are the secular lows. Then again I could be completely wrong about this; but given the valuations of some stocks one should make money in a flat to down market in any event.

  Thanks for posting still; I been following your portfolio. I will choose 4 stocks and see how they fair.

  Qantas: Intrinsic Value 9.15$
  OST: Instrinsic Value: 4.2$
  Paperlinx: Instrinsic Value: 1.40$
  Bank of America: Instrinsic Value: 31$

  This drivel should not be taken as financial advice. Seek to obtain professional
  advice before proceeding with any financial decision.

• 539 Plornt // Feb 24, 2012 at 2:22 pm

  “Plornt // Dec 19, 2011 at 9:44 am

  Well I think we are at the XAO bottom or close to it. Next rally is going to heavily breach the 200dma imo, and based off purely TA the DJIA is headed for a double top around 12,800, but I hate basing decisions purely off TA, so this is just a guess at best.”

  Well the DJIA breached 12,800. Its looking a bit stretched right now. Lets see the XAO go straight through the 210dma whilst many people keep trying to short equities in a rising market, or praying for the next apocalypse.

• 540 Plornt // Feb 24, 2012 at 2:24 pm

  Not many people are actually contrarian with their decision making i’ve noticed in terms of financial allocation. Be contrarian by action not with words.

• 541 Stillgotshoeson // Feb 24, 2012 at 2:49 pm

  IMF 7407 @ $1.32 $ 9777
  ABY 13000 @ $.755 $ 9815
  GRY* 8500 @ $1.225 $10412
  PRU* 3900 @ $2.92 $11388
  FML* 185000 @ $.051 $ 9435
  BPT* 7500 @ $1.765 $13237
  API 37700 @ $.29 $10933
  BKP 714000 @ $.016 $11424
  CTN 11000 @ $1.085 $11935
  EXS 30000 @$.195 $ 5870

  Shares $104226
  Cash $ 267

  Portfolio $104493

• 542 Plornt // Feb 24, 2012 at 11:53 pm

  Thanks for posting Still. Looks to be moving well (up ~5%). Look forward to seeing your returns over the next 12 months. I am optimistic your portfolio will do well.

  This drivel should not be taken as financial advice. Seek to obtain professional
  advice before proceeding with any financial decision.

• 543 Lachlan // Feb 25, 2012 at 6:11 am

  G’day Plornt

  My acquisitions in last 6 months

  IGR @ .415 last .585
  NHC @ 5.63 last 5.75
  AWE @ 1.38 last 1.785
  CDT @ .355 last .195
  GOLD @ 158.50 last 160.85

  This looks good but the reason I am just underwater overall is that I have others (small caps) some of which show good gains but three of which have taken a big sell off. The good thing is that these same ones, all of them are showing potential tech reversals. So I am upbeat as are you going forward…but we will see. Either way I am buy and hold until long term sell signals arrive for individual cases or maybe until I can take profit and re-enter after a sell off but that’s a game for people with more money invested. I am working up from a very small base but cant see why I would not hold quality shares long term over cash even in this climate. The GFC will be resolved imo and the world will keep on rolling along but some places will be badly affected I believe. Will Australia be in for another hit at some stage? I think it has to be very likely but it could be a while still and once again I would look to buy in to weakness. It’s the only way esp in a sideways market.

  Good to see you back mate.

• 544 Plornt // Feb 25, 2012 at 8:36 am

  ” The GFC will be resolved imo and the world will keep on rolling along but some places will be badly affected I believe. Will Australia be in for another hit at some stage? I think it has to be very likely but it could be a while still and once again I would look to buy in to weakness. It’s the only way esp in a sideways market.”

  Yep. We still have the housing bubble unresolved, and also China slowing will have an effect, but like you said it could be a while. There will always be problems in a few years; if you look back historically over the past 100-110 years; at the start of every bull cycle people are generally worried about something. You climb a wall of worry. They may end up being right, and we could be completely wrong however, so have to always re-evaluate reasons why the bears are possibly wrong, and see if things have changed.
  I think the XAO will outperform the DJIA over the next few years. DJIA might be sideways to flat. Be interesting to see how uncorrelated the moves of both indexes are now, and then compare the duration of that correlation, and how much it reverted back to the mean historically (or not).

  Many Resource small caps are pricing in a Chinese collapse it seems, so I would assume they will rise irrespective of where commodity prices head given their extreme oversold status (as your technical picture has shown). I notice Jim Rogers started a resource equities fund back in early 2011, so that is a great sign given prices have fallen significantly further than the creation of that fund.

  This drivel should not be taken as financial advice. Seek to obtain professional
  advice before proceeding with any financial decision.

• 545 Plornt // Feb 25, 2012 at 2:20 pm

  “I am working up from a very small base but cant see why I would not hold quality shares long term over cash even in this climate.”

  My capital is small too; we have to start somewhere . I am trying to limit my share turnover. Its tough to switch to only investing in stocks; need to develop more patience. Made a lot of mistakes in my valuations albiet a rising tide lifts all boats, so mistakes don’t look bad, but still no excuse for making them. Look forward to my instrinsic values being hit over the next 8-10 years (unless earnings continue to collapse and significantly change the long term intrinsic value).

  This drivel should not be taken as financial advice. Seek to obtain professional
  advice before proceeding with any financial decision.

• 546 Lachlan // Feb 25, 2012 at 2:28 pm

  Having said that Plornt there is no doubt in my mind that there will be no organic recovery through the current monetary paradigm/status quo. It seems doomed.

  I don’t underestimate the cooperation happening between governments, CB’s and other politically motivated bodies with power to kick the can and mould the future to some degree. It has been happening for a long time and will imo continue with some nations enjoying prosperity and others descent into poverty. I have a Jim Rogers type view on China and I believe a wealth transfer from west to east will continue.
  Some places will suffer a lot. Australia is positioned reasonably well considering our natural prosperity but i do not factor in any international geopolitical threat….it seems a waste of time with so many variables. The status quo above may be at threat if international actor/s in the play assume new roles without warning. Anyhow it’s not a subject I want to discuss but just letting you know I do have some agreement with the bears on basic levels ie the debt problem. The threat I see to stocks is devaluation in real terms not nominal.

• 547 Stillgotshoeson // Feb 25, 2012 at 4:07 pm

  I am playing the latest asx share game too. Have bought 4 stocks with my “pretend” $50k to spend that they give you.

  Company list that you can buy from has about 100 companies in it.

  Runs from 16th Feb to 30th May.

  Your current portfolio (live)
  Portfolio total $53,261.76

  As it is not real money I do not actively monitor or trade stocks in the game. Check from time to time but generally speaking just let it ride.

  Current ranking is in the top 100 national and top 10 State.

• 548 Greg Atkinson // Feb 27, 2012 at 6:18 pm

  As I have commented before I am waiting for the focus to shift from Europe and onto the slowdown in China which I don’t think will end in a soft landing but rather a painful hard one. If this does happen then the Australian stock market will get another shake-out led by a rout across mining stocks, but then I would be looking for the next run up past 5000 to take hold.

  Having said that, my timing is lousy so it could be two years (or more?) before we see the ASX All Ords/ASX 200 hit 5000 again

• 549 Lachlan // Feb 28, 2012 at 8:00 am

  Other than big moves downward, long-winded side-ways moves are another way of resolving things.
  Looking at US gold, AUDUSD and XJO it looks like another little spike up for the short term. I’m thinking 1.10 on our dollar a good short term probability. The XJO is harder to call but I hope to see 4400 still.

• 550 Lachlan // Feb 28, 2012 at 6:02 pm

  Greg I missed a chance to buy TLS at 3.22 which would have been the spot imo. My guess is now it will re-trace this sell off back to the high it just came from. Beyond that I don’t know but with the high yields I would not worry too much about it other than picking off a good sell off to some horizontal support like this.

  This is only my unqualified opinion and not a share tip of any kind.

• 551 Greg Atkinson // Mar 1, 2012 at 10:31 am

  Lachlan I am still waiting for the market to get down near 4000 or lower. I fear we need to take a China hit, absorb the reality that Australia will probably need to endure a period of lower or negative growth & then slowly head up towards 5000 again.

• 552 Lachlan // Mar 2, 2012 at 12:15 pm

  Just my gut feeling is that a China hit will happen as you say but I think it may be a little further out into the future. China has managed a retreat from the open money spigots and now they are turning them back on again. I believe their economy will respond. You can remind later Greg me if I am wrong

  Despite the high dollar and China’s recent slowing the ASX200 produced 5.5% increase in aggregate profits according to Commsec.
  The worst component of Oz seems to be households and small business still and many shops are doing it hard locally.

  I think we could easily see 4000 again too, but in the very very short term I think we are going to pop to 4400 and I hope up to 4600 but that latter figure is a hope not a call. Since we are locked in a range who knows how long we will stay here.

  It is at least possible to see 5000 again before 4000. I can hope for that too

• 553 Stillgotshoeson // Mar 3, 2012 at 9:46 am

  IMF 7407 @ $1.42 $10518
  ABY 13000 @ $.815 $10595
  GRY* 8500 @ $1.165 $9902
  PRU* 3900 @ $2.81 $10959
  FML* 185000 @ $.051 $ 9435
  BPT* 7500 @ $1.56 $11700
  API 37700 @ $.28 $10933
  BKP 714000 @ $.016 $11424
  CTN 11000 @ $1.12 $12320
  EXS 30000 @$.19 $ 5700

  Shares $103486
  Cash $ 323.25

  Portfolio $103809

  BPT Dividend $56.25

• 554 Lachlan // Mar 5, 2012 at 9:58 am

  On TLS is a RSI/price divergence which might help bring the price back towards 3.00 dollarish. Will watch the current action to see if we are going to fail and clear the recent high and retest the recent low around 3.22.

• 555 Greg Atkinson // Mar 6, 2012 at 11:01 am

  Lachlan we are seeing a bit of a China induced pullback now. Some more slowing data out of China this week will push the market down towards 4000 I would expect.

  Personally I’d like to see the stock market appreciate that there is no such thing as a miracle economy, especially not a command one. Let’s accept that China will at some point enter a recession, adjust and then move on

• 556 Lachlan // Mar 7, 2012 at 5:28 am

  Well Greg the pullback is in progress for sure.
  A good lesson on the Dow, gold, AUDUSD and XJO is that buying breakout trades is risky for short term trades as all of the breakouts were crunched some days ago. Anyhow I see this as another buying opportunity and I am cashed up. I think AUDUSD will hit 1.04 or close too which means it has some capitulating to do. DOW’s best support is around 12300/400 which might imply a flash crash shake-out is at least possible. That’s a dip I’d like to buy. Since the XJO has corrected here I like it a lot for an eventual break out more than ever with a pause at 4400/4430 and then on to 4600 where some shorts will enter. Not sure where it will bottom but imo it does not have the capitulation risk as does the DOW and AUDUSD which had become very extended. Silver could find support at 32 bucks.

  Shopping time!

  Sorry OT..we have had 335mm of rain in ten days.

• 557 Lachlan // Mar 7, 2012 at 5:35 am

  Of course my calls are all based on the assumption we will most likely see risk rally (election year for Obama remember). Gold and silver trade in sympathy with risk for whatever reason….accept when someone decides to kick em in the butt overnight.

  These crazy ideas are not trading advice.

• 558 Plornt // Mar 7, 2012 at 7:01 am

  “Since the XJO has corrected here I like it a lot for an eventual break out more than ever with a pause at 4400/4430 and then on to 4600 where some shorts will enter. Not sure where it will bottom but imo it does not have the capitulation risk as does the DOW and AUDUSD which had become very extended. Silver could find support at 32 bucks.

  Shopping time!”

  Yes XAO will breakout (albiet it looks like its going to be one of those long winded highly volatile types). Could be one more pullback as Greg suggested on the China fears. Maybe 4,100-4,200. My system is triggering short on the XAO, and long at the sametime; on multiple duratons. Am not really phased by any adverse movements, as that is something you have to get used to. However, I am really not liking the DJIA from a technical perspective — there is definitely capitulation risk there Lachlan as you mentioned; it looks like that is going to at best go sideways; at worst collapse. No system shorts on the DJIA yet. I can see many trends breaking down through the 200dma. WMT looks bearish; HPQ looks bearish and many others.

  Gold statistical support at 1600. System short on that. I am not short anything atm, and don’t intend to. Gold and Silver will probably go sideways for 12-18 months before the next parabolic move, so be used to highly volatile range bound movements.

  “Lachlan I am still waiting for the market to get down near 4000 or lower. I fear we need to take a China hit, absorb the reality that Australia will probably need to endure a period of lower or negative growth & then slowly head up towards 5000 again.”

  I agree with the 4,000 call Greg. Even if we fall, we have a floor on our market somewhat, so downside is limited as you mentioned with your lower targets prior to going back towards 5,000. As Lachlan said our market is not over-extended, and has underperformed the DJIA considerably over the last few years. That can’t keep going forever.

  This drivel should not be taken as financial advice.
  Seek to obtain professional
  advice before proceeding with any financial decision.

• 559 Plornt // Mar 7, 2012 at 7:06 am

  “Not sure where it will bottom but imo it does not have the capitulation risk as does the DOW and AUDUSD which had become very extended.”

  I agree with the capitulation risk re: DJIA. Looks massively overextended. I am looking to buy on weakness with the XAO, but not sure when yet. Agree it will breakout to 4,600 at some point in the future.

  This drivel should not be taken as financial advice. Seek to obtain professional
  advice before proceeding with any financial decision.

• 560 Lachlan // Mar 7, 2012 at 9:21 am

  Got my shopping trolley out Plornt but nothing in it yet

• 561 Stillgotshoeson // Mar 7, 2012 at 1:52 pm

  Lachlan // Mar 7, 2012 at 9:21 am

  Got my shopping trolley out Plornt but nothing in it yet

  Offloaded 2 holdings and downsized on another today.

  Shopping trolley is out as well.

  Looking to increase holdings on a couple and add some new blood to the mix.

• 562 Lachlan // Mar 7, 2012 at 3:55 pm

  G’day Shoes
  Had two bids in the water today but a fraction too far below the market on both. Will reveal my new aquisition’s should they come through however one is a re-purchase of a gold share we have both traded in the past and which I very much like right now despite having a lot of shares in market. The other is a West African play with a first year projection of 150K oz.
  Still watching TLS although I probably should just pay near 3.20 and be done with it considering the yield.

• 563 Plornt // Mar 8, 2012 at 8:35 am

  “Will reveal my new aquisition’s should they come through however one is a re-purchase of a gold share we have both traded in the past and which I very much like right now despite having a lot of shares in market. The other is a West African play with a first year projection of 150K oz.
  Still watching TLS although I probably should just pay near 3.20 and be done with it considering the yield.”

  Look forward to seeing your picks Lachlan ! TLS looks great technically, but I can’t buy it at enough of a discount to intrinsic value ($7.10). Still a great potential return though. Additionally, subjectively their customer service has improved.

  This drivel should not be taken as financial advice. Seek to obtain professional
  advice before proceeding with any financial decision.

• 564 Stillgotshoeson // Mar 8, 2012 at 2:41 pm

  Lachlan, My focus is still on precious metal miners as well… have toes in the water for a couple of new additions to my portfolio.

  NCM were a screaming buy yesterday, however my rules are my rules and I bought no more of them.

  There has been some shuffling at work, have received a promotion so I am hella busy at the moment, not getting much chance to view the markets.

  Company are sending me to the USofA in late September/October. Chicago, Atlanta, Dallas, Los Angeles, Minneapolis, Philly and finish up at head office in New York. 5 weeks living out of a suitcase.

• 565 Lachlan // Mar 8, 2012 at 9:16 pm

  Gotta keep Focussing Shoes
  I am surprised NCM came down to that price but certainly no sleep lost here…I keep to my rules too after learning the hard way.
  Sounds like your having fun out there Shoes. Good luck with the tour de USA.
  “I can’t buy it at enough of a discount to intrinsic value ($7.10)”…. Plornt are you saying you would like to see it cheaper? Come on, spill the beans, that’s what I like about these forums…and I’m keen to hear the worst about Telstra.
  My other 2 bids are still waiting for another down day…hopefully tomorrow.
  Might catch you all next week if your around..I take it Greg will turn up at least

• 566 Plornt // Mar 10, 2012 at 6:14 pm

  “Plornt are you saying you would like to see it cheaper? Come on, spill the beans, that’s what I like about these forums…and I’m keen to hear the worst about Telstra.”

  Oh its just I have to buy at a certain % below intrinsic value, or I break my rules. Drawdowns were huge historically when I backtested and bought at 40% or more of intrinsic value. For example at 40% of intrinsic value there were 50%+ drawdowns (from cost) multiple times over a 20 year sample size. I’d need nappies if I had to go through that over and over !

• 567 Lachlan // Mar 12, 2012 at 6:33 pm

  I obtained NMG @ 46cents but I think it has possible technical downside to 40 regardless. I have a bid on FML and TLS below current market. I am assuming TLS has bottomed long term.
  I think we will have another down draft this week. AUDUSD into 1.04′s. If the Dow tests some support I think it will be short lived like a flash crash and flash bounce. Dow equals sacred cow. Fed should water and feed appropriately but shake-outs are helpful.
  I am a little concerned about the DXY which looks good for some upside….yet USD gold conversely is looking strong too. Flight to safety week maybe? Back around Thursday to see what happened.

• 568 Plornt // Mar 12, 2012 at 7:13 pm

  “I obtained NMG @ 46cents but I think it has possible technical downside to 40 regardless. I have a bid on FML and TLS below current market. I am assuming TLS has bottomed long term.”

  TLS may have hit its lowest intraday price over a longer duration. You are probably right. As I said before I think your long term returns will be good.

  This drivel should not be taken as financial advice. Seek to obtain professional
  advice before proceeding with any financial decision.

• 569 Plornt // Mar 12, 2012 at 7:28 pm

  After the possible anticipated correction I can see so much upside right now. 5,700-6000 XAO as I stated before is where my targets are in a few years.
  I am so bullish the XAO; more bullish than when I said the DJIA was going to outperform the XAO by a substantial margin back in late 2009. My long term XAO timing system is showing a massive statistical duration move. Its huge.

  This drivel should not be taken as financial advice. Seek to obtain professional
  advice before proceeding with any financial decision.

• 570 Plornt // Mar 17, 2012 at 5:10 pm

  This DJIA rally is amazing. Another system has kicked in on the DJIA (no shorts have ever fired on the DJIA yet), so it seems the DJIA rally has legs. Granted there has to be some kind of pullback here given the move, but we may not come off till next August.

  “Buy when everyone else is selling and hold when everyone else is buying.” J Paul Getty

  I am not buying anything at these levels, but will hold fully invested into any correction, and beyond for the long term.
  Still sticking with my DJIA call for a sideways at best market whilst the XAO significantly outperforms the DJIA.

  This drivel should not be taken as financial advice. Seek to obtain professional
  advice before proceeding with any financial decision.

• 571 Greg Atkinson // Mar 18, 2012 at 10:16 am

  Well the Dow Jones is certainly outperforming the All Ords/ASX 200 which is what I thought would happen back in early 2009 when I wrote: Is the golden era for the Australian stock market over?

  Spooky!

• 572 Lachlan // Mar 18, 2012 at 3:47 pm

  That is part of what makes our market reasonable buying at the moment fella’s, imo
  Interesting week last week. Dow rallied with the dollar through middle of last week.
  XJO went up against a falling AUD/USD.
  This week we have the CDS debacle in Greece first up and it seems JPM have a trillion dollars worth. Not that I am thinking the world will end. The move up in the DJ looks valid for a bit more. The presses will keep rolling against the tide of debt destruction.

  Plornt I have noticed good entry points for some miners this week and some strong correlations in the class ie divergences and prices oversold on long term support. I will try to buy more.
  Sold all my AWE’s for 1.89 and 30% plus gain last week. It’s been a strong rally short term from a descending wedge and “possibly” some ground to retrace. Thanks for the reminder on those Greg
  I am beginning to take larger positions so as to reduce exposure/risk at resistance areas as was my habit with CFD trading…which I gave up for the leverage was high and I needed to get away from the market when my work picked up..which relies on seasons. Loving my share trading. Adrenaline junky maybe? I’ll just have to be careful I don’t get in too deep as was my policy.

• 573 Plornt // Mar 18, 2012 at 3:50 pm

  Haven’t read that post before Greg wasn’t on this blog in early 2009. You got it spot on -- great stuff.

  “Firstly I do not expect the Australia stock market to outperform the U.S. stock market when the next bull run comes along. Australia has just been through a great period of around 17 years without a recession and all good things come to an end. In addition Australia has in the last 5 years or so enjoyed rising assets prices, low unemployment, cricket wins, a commodities boom and has indeed been the lucky country.”

  This drivel should not be taken as financial advice. Seek to obtain professional
  advice before proceeding with any financial decision.

• 574 Lachlan // Mar 18, 2012 at 3:52 pm

  If an awe rsi/price divergence means anything then awe could be a retrace to just above 1.40ish. Wait and see.

• 575 Greg Atkinson // Mar 18, 2012 at 4:28 pm

  Plornt -- well sometimes I am close to being right, not often but it does happen But the fall of the USD and the low interest rates in the U.S. flatter the Dow Jones a touch.

  Lachlan -- glad you did well with AWE. That stock is on my radar all the time as it is basically a pure oil/gas play and the company is small enough to understand.

  I have been sitting on my hands for quite a while but I am slowly getting more active. Once we get the bad numbers out of China and things settle down I will be heading back into the fire.

  I am still expecting the All Ords/ASX 200 to take a hit down towards 4000 but after that I reckon a bull market run will take hold. A change of government would also help.

• 576 Lachlan // Mar 18, 2012 at 4:55 pm

  Keep your share ideas coming Greg (and other commenter’s here). I had not looked at AWE properly for a few years (except to commiserate with a friend who bought much higher) but the fundamentals seemed fair and I liked the chart.
  Still have a buy on TLS below market, being a scrooge. If you are right about the indexes going to 4000 I may get lucky on that. They scraped themselves up and survived another retest of support last week, the break of which I hoped for.

• 577 Plornt // Mar 19, 2012 at 8:50 am

  “Plornt I have noticed good entry points for some miners this week and some strong correlations in the class ie divergences and prices oversold on long term support. I will try to buy more.”

  I dont spend much time on shares/futures etc, so I haven’t been looking at much. I just basically set it up a few months ago and then just left it (apart from the switch to more Australian stocks after unloaded some US equities which was mainly to just increase my existing investments).

  Great to see the 30% gain on your AWE investment Lachlan; i missed out on that.
  NMG looks extremely bearish to me Lachlan. If you are buying at the 50% TA reversal method its already breached that ~52c which means there is now a high probability for a long term reversal to the breakout point 15-25c. I don’t like buying the 50% reversals as it fails more often than it holds (which happens for most Technical analysis hence why i dont base decisions from it). System shows downside risk is 22c, so that alligns with the TA, but there is not enough historical data for the system to be reliable. Again the system is just giving a statistically likely target.

  All posts by this poster is not financial advice or a reccomendation to do something. Can change my mind quickly on any decision I make, given markets always change.

• 578 Lachlan // Mar 19, 2012 at 9:04 am

  I only have a second to comment Plornt but I have bought SVL FML NCM today with 4 other bids out. I am setting up to take profits and reduce risk off a bounce here (if it materialises) in the hope of enjoying some trading and reducing cost basis. I am small position overall which ensures I won’t be too despondent if Shoes prediction of lower low comes about…and can hold out.
  I know what you are saying about NMG too. I have some other reasons… I can talk later. Cheers.

  These crazy ideas are not share tips or trading advice

• 579 Lachlan // Mar 19, 2012 at 9:07 am

  NCM was a position increase the other two newbies. I know NCM is testing a support level too…once again some other reasons for later.

• 580 Plornt // Mar 19, 2012 at 11:32 am

  “NCM was a position increase the other two newbies. I know NCM is testing a support level too…once again some other reasons for later.”

  I’m sure you’ll outperform the XAO Lachlan over the long term !

• 581 Plornt // Mar 19, 2012 at 11:51 am

  Plornt // Feb 24, 2012 at 2:13 pm

  Qantas: Intrinsic Value 9.15$
  OST: Instrinsic Value: 4.2$
  Paperlinx: Instrinsic Value: 1.40$
  Bank of America: Instrinsic Value: 31$

  Qantas 24TH Feb 1.68; last close 1.765
  OST 24th Feb 1.025; last close 1.185
  PPX 24th Feb .10; last close .115
  BAC 24th Feb 7.88; last close 9.80
  Assume equal weight in each stock average gain is ~15%. Xao over same period is flat. Ourperformance 15%.

  These crazy ideas are not share tips or trading advice or investment advice

• 582 Plornt // Mar 19, 2012 at 3:12 pm

  “Still have a buy on TLS below market, being a scrooge. If you are right about the indexes going to 4000 I may get lucky on that. They scraped themselves up and survived another retest of support last week, the break of which I hoped for.”

  Hope you manage to get a good price Lachlan on TLS. In terms of Australian small cap earnings which have been underwhelming; it’s tough out there for small business atm; I hope things pick up as they are so important to the Australian economy. We as investors donot want them to do poorly, or we all suffer. Earnings drive market returns obviously, so we all gotta start spending, and stop being so frugal and fearful ! Hopefully if the stock market rises substantially the wealth effect will take hold (i.e. feeling richer because of higher asset values) and that will promote further spending.

• 583 Stillgotshoeson // Mar 19, 2012 at 3:26 pm

  NCM are down on the “Indonesian” fear of what is going to happen with new equity laws.

• 584 Plornt // Mar 19, 2012 at 4:29 pm

  “NCM are down on the “Indonesian” fear of what is going to happen with new equity laws.”

  My hedging system gave a short target on NCM of 23 or 24$, from 34$ back in Decemeber; albeit its been extremely volatile it looks to have been spot on, but the major lows held ($29.51) from the close of last session, so that is one positive if it can find support here.

  All posts by this poster is not financial advice or a reccomendation to do something. Can change my mind quickly on any decision I make, given markets always change.

• 585 Lachlan // Mar 19, 2012 at 6:27 pm

  I finished the day also with SAR (additional shares to existing at 57c) and some FNT purchased at 9.9c. NCM @30.05, SVL@13c, FML @5c after trying for 4.7c and missing out. TLS are not filled with my bid too low so far.
  RE: NMG I like the fundamental case… not that the balance sheet can’t be better..it will if the production targets are made good (remembering miners are full of it ). Thought they might scrape through my 46c buy zone intraday and close back up alas the capitulation to 40c has happened today. There is possible support there and also at 35c (35 = average of values in previous trade range). Regardless I am of the opinion they will have a date with at least 60c before the end of the year.
  I agree Plornt that NCM .. can.. technically move to support mid 20′s. They have a chance at 28.50 to bounce also. If they do go there it will give technicians something to talk about. It wont necessarily signal an end to the bull market but at best it will mean possibly a lot of hard work (consolidation) before a resumption. If it does and I see no change in fundamentals I would add on the dip.
  Gold shares are certainly poorly performing against the AUD gold price. That attracts me to them. They may then be viewed as cheap at least from that one angle. While there is no guarantee on anything let alone that they will ever catch up (re-correlate), you have to have some logical case for your decisions to give yourself some increased chances.
  Shoes I see FML’s risk is their cash costs. Black power is increasing African risk.
  Buy when there is blood..?

• 586 Lachlan // Mar 19, 2012 at 6:29 pm

  ” Black power is increasing African risk.” re my African shares.

• 587 Lachlan // Mar 19, 2012 at 6:32 pm

  None of my drivel above is to be taken as a share trading advice. For such advice please seek out someone with more apparent sanity/less desire for risk taking

• 588 Plornt // Mar 19, 2012 at 7:25 pm

  “None of my drivel above is to be taken as a share trading advice. For such advice please seek out someone with more apparent sanity/less desire for risk taking ”

  I think if people saw our sharpe ratios they would faint
  You lay a strong fundamental case for your stock -- did your homework -- and are emotionally prepared for volatility; which you have done successfully in the past.

  I’m off again for a few months. Don’t want to start being hyperactive on my positions, and create frictional costs. I’ll be back if something blows up .

  All posts by this poster is not financial advice or a reccomendation to do something. Can change my mind quickly on any decision I make, given markets always change.

• 589 Plornt // Mar 19, 2012 at 7:58 pm

  Good luck; hope everyone is doing ok with their investments, and if not hoping that their returns will do great in the future !

• 590 Stillgotshoeson // Mar 19, 2012 at 10:15 pm

  I bought 100000 GOR today at .325 Sovereign risks on our international plays are having some impact on those miners Lachlan. Might be my last addition to the portfolio for a while. A few dividend players are on the radar… Just not sure if I want in yet.
  Shoes Sydney.

• 591 Plornt // Mar 20, 2012 at 5:52 am

  “I bought 100000 GOR today at .325 Sovereign risks on our international plays are having some impact on those miners Lachlan. Might be my last addition to the portfolio for a while. A few dividend players are on the radar… Just not sure if I want in yet.”

  Yes it’s better to just sit on your hands a lot of the time. Even Warren Buffett says this is the best approach. Just like in life being direct instead of passively agressively dribbing and destabalising people through others with bs, and incorrect assumptions.

  All posts by this poster is not financial advice or a reccomendation to do something. Can change my mind quickly on any decision I make, given markets always change.

• 592 Plornt // Mar 20, 2012 at 6:09 am

  For those who want to follow Macro themes this is a great thread to visit:

  http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=a2dfff59674c2590f7fe0c672c7808f5&threadid=215992&perpage=6&pagenumber=534

• 593 Greg Atkinson // Mar 20, 2012 at 8:03 am

  For me the big picture view is what I am focused on and now that is can a recovery in the U.S. economy compensate for a slowdown in China and probably years of sluggish growth. Or could the weaker global economy snuff out the recovery in the U.S?

  As readers of this site will know I am still waiting for the hit from China after which I hope we can get a better grip on how the global economy is really travelling. Hopefully this will indicate there is a world of growth without China surging and then the next bull market will finally get going.

• 594 Lachlan // Mar 20, 2012 at 10:27 am

  “Sovereign risks on our international plays are having some impact on those miners Lachlan”
  It’s a bit of a worry Shoes. Real concerns make assets cheaper and one hopes the storm will blow over as they can do.

  “Don’t want to start being hyperactive on my positions, and create frictional costs.”
  Plornt I have incurred that problem by buying small positions in many places. Reducing risk has costs.

  Seems to be no end of risk in the headlines for the time being.

  Good luck fella’s.

• 595 Plornt // Mar 20, 2012 at 11:10 am

  ““Don’t want to start being hyperactive on my positions, and create frictional costs.”
  Plornt I have incurred that problem by buying small positions in many places. Reducing risk has costs”

  Well I guess frictional costs in that sense is understandable. I’m sure its provided you some diversification, and better average costs if you haven’t bght many small things within the same sector/theme/industry etc.
  We just have to focus on results. Many people do not get decent returns, but seem to be knowledagble. I just focus on making sure my returns are good; without good results the rest is meaningless. And by good results I mean if your capital size is small you should be severely thrashing the index (20-30% p.a. above the benchmark index at least), as we have access to strategies that are not scaleable with much bigger capital sizes.

• 596 Plornt // Mar 20, 2012 at 1:27 pm

  “Hopefully this will indicate there is a world of growth without China surging and then the next bull market will finally get going.”

  Its excrutiating to watch this XAO bull market breakout eventuate! I have not purchased anything for a while, as I can’t find anything below my intrnsic value method in terms of correct % discount.

• 597 Plornt // Mar 23, 2012 at 10:24 am

  http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-03-20/the-value-of-a-company-value-index/3902580?section=business

  Roger talks about the danger of US treasury bubble, and issues with investing in passive index funds in terms of company size, and not based on their ability to increase intrinsic value overtime. Great stuff.

• 598 Stillgotshoeson // Mar 25, 2012 at 10:09 am

  IMF 7407 @ $1.455 $10777
  ABY 13000 @ $.72 $9360
  GRY* 8500 @ $1.09 $9265
  PRU* 3900 @ $2.35 $9165
  FML* 185000 @ $.05 $9250
  BPT* 7500 @ $1.625 $12187
  API 37700 @ $.27 $10179
  BKP 714000 @ $.015 $10710
  CTN 11000 @ $1.11 $12210
  EXS 30000 @$.185 $ 5500

  Shares $98603
  Cash $ 323

  Portfolio $98926

• 599 Lachlan // Mar 25, 2012 at 2:03 pm

  Some continued technical weakness in gold shares has opened the way for further downside now Shoes (does not mean it will happen of course and we could get brief bounce first anyhow) but the fundamental case just gets better. Happy to hold but I am holding positions now which I can chisel profits from at resistance areas/price spikes.
  Happy I sold AWE. I thought it a great buy at the time and still might be but I have been unsure about the case for oil. There are reasonable cases for it being over priced/maybe overdone as an inflation hedge. If gold gets overpriced in fiat then nobody will starve which is a reason it is the best money money can buy .

• 600 Stillgotshoeson // Mar 26, 2012 at 8:21 pm

  Europe is still a mess, I don’t believe the US has any sustainable growth happening at this point in time and our non mining economy is still in dullsville. Mining economy may take a breather too if the slowdown in China continues. Still can not see fundamental reasons for any significant rally in the ASX200 or All Ords, DOW is struggling to break 13000, though I still maintain what I said to Ross over on DRA a year or 2 back that the DOW could well hit 15000 and I would not be surprised to see it occur before it heads back lower than the recent low.

  Have as much exposure to the market as am comfortable with at this point, still hold the view it will test new lows during the continued “GFC”.

  Gold and Silver seem to have hit resistance levels and fluctuate little at this prices, looking for a signal to go one way or the other maybe?

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