Each year I outline how I think the Australian Stock Market might fare bearing in mind that my forecast, like all forecasts, is actually a calculated guesstimate – at best. None of us know with any certainty how the financial markets will ride out the year and it’s probably a safe assumption that anyone that implies that they do is either trying to sell you a book or website subscription. But a forecast can be a useful planning exercise even if it simply makes us think of the factors that might move the markets. So once again I will go out on a limb and add my forecast to the galaxy of other forecasts.
April 3rd, 2017 · 11 Comments
December 20th, 2016 · 6 Comments
The U.S. election result has thrown another Brexit event at the markets and once again the markets have done and are doing the opposite of what many experts predicted. I did not focus on the U.S, election in too much detail and expected any post election rally or sell-off to be short-lived. However just as the sky never fell when voters in the U.K. decided to leave the European Union it’s has remained in place after the surprising win by Donald Trump. The biggest surprise though is that the so called “Trump Rally” keeps on going and so far, the Australian stock market seems to be following the lead and since early November has staged a fairly strong rally also.
October 31st, 2016 · 30 Comments
Although many commentators in the finance media have found reasons to write excitedly about the Australian stock market during the last two months I have been unable to do so. Yes some ASX listed shares have risen sharply in price and profits have been there for some investors, but overall it’s been a very dull and boring few months apart from a correction that I wrote about at the end of August.
August 31st, 2016 · 24 Comments
The last couple of months have been eventful for the Australian stock market. First, for reasons unknown, it was was moved by the Brexit referendum result and then as the 2016 Australian Federal Election saga slowly unfolded the market really didn’t do much at all, even-though Malcolm Turnbull almost managed to lose all the seats Tony Abbott had won for the coalition parties in the previous election. Despite these events however the S&P/ASX has gained ground and has edged up to around the 5400-5600 range…again.
May 6th, 2016 · 4 Comments
Without doubt it’s been a tough few years for Australian share market investors. At times there have been signs of hope and in early 2015 the S&P/ASX 200 and ASX All Ordinaries briefly edged near 6000. There was also a glimmer of hope that the market would bounce back strongly after the GFC when the market rallied towards 5000 after nearly crashing to 3000 in 2008. Those were not pleasant days to be holding long positions but at least something was happening. At the beginning of 201o the ASX All Ordinaries Index was around 4800 – today it’s at around 5200 – which means that in just over 6 years the market has risen a paltry 400 points.
February 22nd, 2016 · 19 Comments
It has been some years since the last review of the Shareswatch Australia Random Stocks Portfolio and so it will be interesting to see what impact the slump in commodities prices has had upon it. The last review of the portfolio was back in November 2013 when the S&P/ASX 200 was around 5400.
January 29th, 2016 · 68 Comments
Although much of the commentary in the mainstream finance media conveys the impression that the Australian stock market is in the midst of unprecedented correction, the reality is as usual somewhat different. In fact, considering the rout in commodities prices it’s somewhat surprising that the ASX All Ordinaries and S&P/ASX 200 are still around the 5000 level. This suggests to me that the market is probably near a multi-year low and that despite all the pessimism, it’s unlikely to finish the year lower.
December 22nd, 2015 · 6 Comments
This year it looks like that at best, the Australian stock market will end at around the same level where it finished in 2014. This is certainly a surprise for those who were getting excited back when the ASX 200 was repeatedly testing 6000 during March – May. The major drags on the market have been China and commodities, both of which I have flagged as major risks for a few years.
November 19th, 2015 · 23 Comments
As I have written before, it’s important during a stock market correction not to get influenced by sensational articles in the news media about market crashes and comparisons to past market slumps going all the way back to the 1920’s which are after all, basically irrelevant. The only thing that really concerns investors now is what will happen to the Australia stock market going forward, and the most likely outcome is that over the longer term it will trend upwards.
October 1st, 2015 · 4 Comments
There comes a point during any major stock market correction when many investors (myself included) think about buying into leading companies whose shares have fallen during the stock market sell-off. The theory is that blue-chip stocks offer good value around the bottom of a market correction and that they will provide a healthy return to investors who are patient enough to wait for the stock market to recover.
July 27th, 2015 · 11 Comments
Some years ago when I wrote that it was only a matter of time before economic growth in China slowed and commodities prices fell, the mainstream media in Australia at that time were obsessed with the commodities super cycle and the Chinese “miracle” economy. However now there is widespread acceptance that the commodities boom is over and that the Chinese economy isn’t bulletproof after all. However it now seems difficult for many to accept that as a consequence of those two realities that the Australian Economy is poised for some years limited growth…at best.
June 30th, 2015 · 13 Comments
Well another financial year has come to an end and for the Australian stock market it has been a fairly poor FY2014-2015, but if you include dividends an average balanced stocks portfolio could have probably returned 3-4% in dividends which in the era of low interest rates is not too bad. However the reality is that the Australian stock market is under-performing markets in Japan, the US and many in Europe – not to mention Chinese stocks which surged skywards during the past year but now look like they are currently falling back to earth.
June 2nd, 2015 · 9 Comments
On the surface it may seem that not all that much is happening in regards to ASX 200 stock prices apart from the significant bounces up and down each other day. Generally speaking the S&P/ASX 200 Index (XJO) has been trading within a fairly narrow range for around the last month, but under the surface there are some interesting stocks that are worth keeping an eye on.
May 8th, 2015 · 20 Comments
This week we have seen the S&P/ASX 200 bounce around quite a bit, but generally speaking the trend of late has been back down towards 5600. This movement has probably surprised some investors especially those who were quite bullish just some weeks ago when the ASX 200 appeared poised to rally past the 6000 level.
March 17th, 2015 · 16 Comments
So far this year the ASX 200 has been staging a fairly impressive rally having moved from around 5300 points at the start of trading in January to over 5900 in early February. It has since pulled-back a touch but is still up around 10% for the year so there are plenty of reasons to be bullish about the outlook for the market for the rest of the year. However I remain cautious about the outlook for Australian shares and the global economy and maintain my view that a significant correction is not far away.