Shareswatch Australia

Australian stock market investing, ASX charts, analysis & market forecasts.

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Entries Categorised as 'Business'

Oil Prices, the Baltic Dry Index, Stock Markets & Gold.

December 7th, 2011 · 34 Comments

The interest rate cut yesterday by the Reserve Bank of Australia suggests that finally the RBA understands that the Chinese economy will not keep expanding at a rapid rate while its major trading partners are struggling. But even if the Chinese economy slows more than most economists expect this is unlikely to send the global economy back into a GFC-like slump.

Stockwatch: Qantas (QAN), Telstra (TLS) and Onesteel (OST)

November 10th, 2011 · 19 Comments

In the midst this stock market turmoil there may be some battered down stocks which present the opportunity for investors to buy shares in quality companies at bargain prices. Three Australian companies that might fall into that category are Qantas Airways, Telstra Corporation and Onesteel Limited.

The stampede towards global economic pessimism

September 13th, 2011 · 28 Comments

A sure sign that an economic trend has been established is when the OECD finally jumps on the trend bandwagon and recently the OECD has joined the group of recently converted economic pessimists. Gone are the days when big borrowing, big spending governments would save the day – the theme of the day now is hang onto your hats because we might be in for a bumpy ride.

A stock market rout, investor fear & the global economy

August 5th, 2011 · 69 Comments

As I write today the Australian stock market has slumped around -4% so far after the Dow Jones fell -4.3% and markets in Europe also ended sharply lower. As per usual, many finance journalists are hurriedly pumping out scary stories and dramatic headlines to gain readers attention so it’s time to grab a cup of coffee, relax and focus on the facts.

Recession watch and the Reserve Bank of Australia awakens

July 6th, 2011 · 24 Comments

As each week passes the moans of struggling businesses grow louder and finally it appears that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) board members have woken up to the fact that the economy has been sliding backwards since late 2010. Once again the RBA had made a tactical blunder and raised rates too high just as they did as the global financial crisis was unfolding back in late 2007.

The Australian economy, the Twilight Zone and known unknowns

June 20th, 2011 · 14 Comments

On a daily basis, dozens of finance and business journalists try to convince the general public that they somehow have an insight into what the Australian economy is doing or how the economy will fare over the next six months or so. But the truth is, nobody has a clue what will happen for the rest of this year as we are still stuck in the Economic Twilight Zone.

Has the Australian economy peaked?

May 31st, 2011 · 16 Comments

Last year when I dared to suggest that the Australian economy was unbalanced and that 2011-2012 could be a period of economic contraction the mainstream financial reporters were churning out “miracle” economy stories. Back then they were obsessed with telling their readers how the mining boom would shower riches across the Great Southern Land, but today many of them have started to sound a lot more cautious.

Gillard, Rudd, Brown, Wilkie, the nightmare continues

May 7th, 2011 · 13 Comments

For a while I have resisted writing about the political situation in Australia simply because it is too depressing.  Of all the possible political outcomes after the election last year it looks like the Australian people have ended up with the worst case scenario – a leaderless dysfunctional government adrift at a time when major ecomic challenges loom.

Why is the Australian stock market unable to rally?

May 3rd, 2011 · 4 Comments

Despite the best efforts of many analysts to talk up a stock market rally the Australian share market continues to move sideways with the ASX All Ordinaries and S&P/ASX 200 both unable push clear of the 5000 level.  But should this worry investors or is the market now simply reverting back to the long term trend?  Also what factors might be at play that are preventing a major market rally?

The China property bubble and an economy hooked on growth.

April 27th, 2011 · 39 Comments

For around a year or so I have gradually become more cautious about the outlook for the Chinese economy despite the assurances from mining company executives, the RBA and Wayne Swan amongst others that all is well. Without doubt the rapid development of the major cities in China has been nothing short of spectacular but surely we must ask ourselves: is this rapid growth sustainable over the long term?

The Global Economy, Baltic Dry Index, Gold and China

April 18th, 2011 · 16 Comments

We are almost through a third of 2011 and the mood across global markets appears to be decidedly downbeat.  The bullish voices of late 2010 have now faded and even the Reserve Bank of Australia and Federal Treasurer are sounding cautious. But don’t be fooled by the talk that recent events have caused the global economy to face headwinds because the reality is that 2011 was always going to be a tough year.

The Australian economy, house prices and economic outlook

April 5th, 2011 · 207 Comments

Back in April last year I suggested that the Australian economy was not quite as robust as most market commentators appeared to think and that it was quite possible for economic conditions to deteriorate quite markedly over the next few years.  So now one year later after I wrote about a possible economic slump in Australia let’s have a look at how events have unfolded since then.

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