Entries Categorised as 'China'
Mongolia Rivals Australia to Supply China’s Resources Demand.
April 3rd, 2012 · 6 Comments
One of the world’s largest countries, sparsely populated, with extensive minerals in its remote hinterland deserts. Sound like Australia? This is Mongolia. On the cusp of an investment boom, fuelled by Chinese demand for resources and driven by Mongolia’s position just to the north of China’s industrial heartlands. Mongolia’s economy, like Australia’s, has defied the global gloom.
The economy, the Chinese property market & Jim Chanos.
December 16th, 2011 · 27 Comments
As we approach the end of another year we should not be surprised by the economic turmoil in Europe, the ailing U.S. economy or the rumblings of a major slowdown in the Chinese property market. The signs that all was not well with the global economy have been raised on this humble site going back more than a year. Simply put, borrowing vast sums of money and splashing it around did not fix the global economic imbalances highlighted by the market meltdown in 2008.
A stock market rout, investor fear & the global economy
August 5th, 2011 · 69 Comments
As I write today the Australian stock market has slumped around -4% so far after the Dow Jones fell -4.3% and markets in Europe also ended sharply lower. As per usual, many finance journalists are hurriedly pumping out scary stories and dramatic headlines to gain readers attention so it’s time to grab a cup of coffee, relax and focus on the facts.
The Australian stock market slump of 2011
July 15th, 2011 · 4 Comments
At the start of this year I had a somewhat bearish view of how the Australian stock market would perform during 2011 but the slump over the last few months has caught me by surprise. Even stocks in the mining sector are being dragged down by global economic concerns at the moment and I don’t expect things to improve much this year.
Recession watch and the Reserve Bank of Australia awakens
July 6th, 2011 · 24 Comments
As each week passes the moans of struggling businesses grow louder and finally it appears that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) board members have woken up to the fact that the economy has been sliding backwards since late 2010. Once again the RBA had made a tactical blunder and raised rates too high just as they did as the global financial crisis was unfolding back in late 2007.
The China property bubble and an economy hooked on growth.
April 27th, 2011 · 39 Comments
For around a year or so I have gradually become more cautious about the outlook for the Chinese economy despite the assurances from mining company executives, the RBA and Wayne Swan amongst others that all is well. Without doubt the rapid development of the major cities in China has been nothing short of spectacular but surely we must ask ourselves: is this rapid growth sustainable over the long term?
The Global Economy, Baltic Dry Index, Gold and China
April 18th, 2011 · 10 Comments
We are almost through a third of 2011 and the mood across global markets appears to be decidedly downbeat. The bullish voices of late 2010 have now faded and even the Reserve Bank of Australia and Federal Treasurer are sounding cautious. But don’t be fooled by the talk that recent events have caused the global economy to face headwinds because the reality is that 2011 was always going to be a tough year.
The Australian economy, house prices and economic outlook
April 5th, 2011 · 194 Comments
Back in April last year I suggested that the Australian economy was not quite as robust as most market commentators appeared to think and that it was quite possible for economic conditions to deteriorate quite markedly over the next few years. So now one year later after I wrote about a possible economic slump in Australia let’s have a look at how events have unfolded since then.
Debating the Optimistic versus Pessimistic Views of China
January 18th, 2011 · 4 Comments
First a few personal facts. My involvement with China goes back to the early sixties as a diplomat in Hongkong where I was learning Mandarin. For a while I served as China desk officer in Canberra’s foreign affairs ministry. Then during Cultural Revolution days I finally got to China, by organizing an Australian pingpong team (over Canberra’s opposition).
ASX All Ordinaries, ASX 200, ETF Gold & Dow Jones charts for 2010
January 7th, 2011 · 7 Comments
Now that 2010 is behind us, let’s look at some stock market charts for last year and see if we can pick up any trends that might be of some use as 2011 unfolds. Do the charts reflect a booming Australian economy and set the scene for a bull market in 2011? Or should we be a little more cautious?
Australian stock market outlook for 2011
January 4th, 2011 · 26 Comments
As another year starts it’s time for me to make another stock market forecast, one which I will probably regret making in just a few months time. Generally speaking, I expect that 2011 is not going to be particularly kind to the Australian economy and therefore my Australian stock market forecast is not going to make market bulls very happy.
The North Korea conundrum
December 3rd, 2010 · 2 Comments
North Korea bombards the South Korean held island of Yeonpyeong in the Yellow Sea, killing and wounding a number of people there. The hawks call for the strongest possible response. The pundits warn of another Korean War.
The unbalanced economy and household savings
October 23rd, 2010 · 43 Comments
Over the last few weeks most of the financial media have once again managed to draw the wrong conclusions on a range of issues from Australian dollar to the strength of the Australian economy. Talk of the so called two speed economy seems to be back in vogue whereas I believe we should be focused on and worried by, the unbalanced nature of the Australian economy.
Charts analysis: ASX 200, All Ords, BHP, GMI, ETF GOLD and Oil & Gas
October 11th, 2010 · 5 Comments
The Australian stock market has been trading in a fairly narrow range since hitting a yearly low in late May, however over the last few weeks it has pressed above 4600 and we could see it move further towards 5000 in the weeks ahead. In addition some interesting trends are emerging in terms of gold, oil and gas prices and and they might be giving us a good indication of where the market is heading next.
Origins of Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC)
September 24th, 2010 · 2 Comments
In the 1960’s the Japanese rightwing had a problem. The leftwing was arguing strongly that Japan’s postwar economy badly needed access to the markets and raw materials of China, North Korea and the Soviet Union if it was to survive (in prewar years it had depended heavily on China and the Korean peninsula for both).
