Shareswatch Australia

Australian stock market investing, ASX charts, analysis & market forecasts.

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Entries Categorised as 'Commodities'

The China property bubble and an economy hooked on growth.

April 27th, 2011 · 39 Comments

For around a year or so I have gradually become more cautious about the outlook for the Chinese economy despite the assurances from mining company executives, the RBA and Wayne Swan amongst others that all is well. Without doubt the rapid development of the major cities in China has been nothing short of spectacular but surely we must ask ourselves: is this rapid growth sustainable over the long term?

Gold and U.S Stocks Rally but is it time for a Little Pullback

April 21st, 2011 · 3 Comments

It has been a very interesting week thus far. Monday kick started traders with a heart pounding equities sell off which sent money into the US Dollar, precious metals and bonds as the safe havens of choice.

The Global Economy, Baltic Dry Index, Gold and China

April 18th, 2011 · 16 Comments

We are almost through a third of 2011 and the mood across global markets appears to be decidedly downbeat.  The bullish voices of late 2010 have now faded and even the Reserve Bank of Australia and Federal Treasurer are sounding cautious. But don’t be fooled by the talk that recent events have caused the global economy to face headwinds because the reality is that 2011 was always going to be a tough year.

The Australian economy, house prices and economic outlook

April 5th, 2011 · 207 Comments

Back in April last year I suggested that the Australian economy was not quite as robust as most market commentators appeared to think and that it was quite possible for economic conditions to deteriorate quite markedly over the next few years.  So now one year later after I wrote about a possible economic slump in Australia let’s have a look at how events have unfolded since then.

U.S Market: Are Stocks & Commodities About To Start Another Rally?

April 3rd, 2011 · 2 Comments

Over the past couple months everyone seems to have been preparing for a sharp market correction. Crazy part is that the SP500 dropped about 10% from the high and that is a typical bull market correction. The thing is… the stock market has a way of slowly unfolding making it look and feel minor, then before you know it, the correction is over and it’s back to an uptrend. That is kind of how this one unfolded.

Charts review: big four Australian banks CBA, ANZ, NAB, WBC

March 7th, 2011 · 26 Comments

Well today the stock market correction that I mentioned was coming in February has certainly hit and the ASX All Ordinaries Index has fallen below the 5000 level yet again.  Is this latest share market correction something Australian stock market investors should worry about, or is it simply an over-reaction to global events which will have little long term impact on stocks and shares?

Gold, USD, Stocks & Sentiment at Major Pivot Point

February 28th, 2011 · 1 Comment

So far 2011 has been an interesting to say the least. Stocks and commodities have been jumping around with high volatility generating mixed trading signals. This choppy price action typically indicates trends are in their late stages. The late stages of a trend is very difficult to trade because volatility rises meaning larger day to day price swings, and at any time the price could either drop like a rock or go parabolic surging higher in value.

Charts review: All Ords, Telstra, Qantas, BHP & Woolworths

February 18th, 2011 · No Comments

Now that the ASX All Ordinaries Index has broken through and closed above 5000, more than a few market watchers seem to be quite bullish about the prospects for the Australian stock market.  But will the share market rally from here or will another correction roll along and push it below 5000 yet again?

Gold Miners Index May Be Warning Us

February 10th, 2011 · 2 Comments

The past couple weeks I have been keeping a close eye the price of gold and the gold miners index. I check to see if its pointing to higher or lower prices in the near future using inter-market analysis, price and volume, along with technical analysis. At this time the charts are still pointing to lower prices in the coming days or weeks.

Are rising Australian home prices good the economy?

February 7th, 2011 · 55 Comments

Often lost in the debate about house and home prices in Australia is the discussion regarding if our national obsession with housing is good or bad for the overall economy.  Instead of rejoicing that residential real estate prices in Australia rose during the global financial crisis, maybe we should be looking a little closer at why prices are rising to see what problems this might be causing.

Precious Metals and the US Dollar’s Next Big Move

January 15th, 2011 · No Comments

There is a potentially big setup in precious metals sector along with the dollar which looks like its about to unfold. Since mid-October of last year gold started to show signs of distribution selling. Only a month later in November silver started warning us that some big players were taking some profits off the table also. Distribution selling is easy to spot on the charts. In short you will see heavy volume selling accompanied with strong moves to the downside.

ASX All Ordinaries, ASX 200, ETF Gold & Dow Jones charts for 2010

January 7th, 2011 · 7 Comments

Now that 2010 is behind us, let’s look at some stock market charts for last year and see if we can pick up any trends that might be of some use  as 2011 unfolds. Do the charts reflect a booming Australian economy and set the scene for a bull market in 2011? Or should we be a little more cautious?

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