Some years ago when I wrote that it was only a matter of time before economic growth in China slowed and commodities prices fell, the mainstream media in Australia at that time were obsessed with the commodities super cycle and the Chinese “miracle” economy. However now there is widespread acceptance that the commodities boom is over and that the Chinese economy isn’t bulletproof after all. However it now seems difficult for many to accept that as a consequence of those two realities that the Australian Economy is poised for some years limited growth…at best.
Entries Categorised as 'Economy'
July 27th, 2015 · 11 Comments
May 8th, 2015 · 20 Comments
This week we have seen the S&P/ASX 200 bounce around quite a bit, but generally speaking the trend of late has been back down towards 5600. This movement has probably surprised some investors especially those who were quite bullish just some weeks ago when the ASX 200 appeared poised to rally past the 6000 level.
July 11th, 2014 · 5 Comments
Unlike a few years ago, mining company CEO’s these days are somewhat more cautious about the outlook for commodities and have shifted from talking about the commodities super-cycle to commenting about the need to reduce operational costs and scale back investment. Yes the commodities super-cycle or boom is over despite many experts saying it would run for decades.
June 6th, 2014 · 6 Comments
So far the Australian economy has held up quite strongly in 2014 and has outperformed many other developed economies since the GFC caused havoc across global markets in 2008-2009. Belatedly the Australian stock market has also shown post GFC bullish signs having rallied strongly from a low last year to up around 5500 this year. So all is going well right? Well not really, and if we scratch under the surface there are some very worrying trends which could cause years of strife for the Australian economy and the Australian stock market.
May 28th, 2014 · 15 Comments
It’s has taken me a while to put some thoughts down about the 2104 Australian Federal Budget simply because I am suffering from budget fatigue. Maybe the rot set in when Kevin Rudd & Wayne Swan were prancing around during the GFC talking about a national economic emergency. Or perhaps it was just years of Swan delivering budgets which had little connection with reality, with himself and Ken Henry both off in some parallel universe. In any case, when Tony Abbott and Smokin’ Joe Hockey rolled out the budget emergency theme the fatigue really set in.
August 13th, 2013 · 22 Comments
There has been a lot of noise about the Australian economy of late due to the federal election campaign, and most likely much of what is talked about by politicians is not worth paying much attention to. For investors the bigger and more important issues are related to if the Australian economy is in long term decline or is the economy simply heading through a short term rough patch.
March 15th, 2013 · 26 Comments
According to data released the other day, the Australian economy created around 70,000 positions recently which apparently is very good according to most economists. This is despite the fact that most of the jobs were part-time roles and I saw no breakdown regarding what type of jobs were created. That doesn’t seem to matter, once the media and assorted experts say it’s time to cheer then we are suppose to cheer.
November 12th, 2012 · 24 Comments
Finally it seems the Reserve Bank of Australia and Treasury have had to accept that the mining boom has peaked or is peaking, which is something I have been talking about on this site for some years. However the RBA, Treasury and Gillard Government all still appear to be relatively upbeat about the outlook for the Australian economy next year which is surprising, since I don’t see a lot to be optimistic about as I review the stock market, housing market or a few other economic indicators.
September 25th, 2012 · 2 Comments
The apparent end of the biggest resource boom in a century in Australia, occasionally called China’s commodity quarry, has drawn downbeat forecasts from politicians and analysts, but there are some indications that signal all is not over for the lucky country.
March 12th, 2012 · 23 Comments
According to many experts, Australia is in the midst of a mining boom and the government often tells us that the Australian economy is performing better than most if not all, of the world’s major developed economies. Certainly the commodities boom has delivered record profits for many companies, generated massive tax revenues for the federal and state governments plus created many thousands of jobs.
February 3rd, 2012 · 19 Comments
It wasn’t that long ago when ex-Treasury Head Ken Henry talked about the Australian economy being in a ‘Golden Age’. I guess when you can retire on a lucrative public service pension and then parachute into a highly paid job as an advisor to the Prime Minister the future does probably seem bright. But now in early 2012 as unemployment appears set to rise and the economy is showing signs of weakness, Ken Henry’s ‘Golden Age’ comment might end up in the same category as Tim Flannery’s ‘Dams will no longer fill’ prediction.
December 16th, 2011 · 28 Comments
As we approach the end of another year we should not be surprised by the economic turmoil in Europe, the ailing U.S. economy or the rumblings of a major slowdown in the Chinese property market. The signs that all was not well with the global economy have been raised on this humble site going back more than a year. Simply put, borrowing vast sums of money and splashing it around did not fix the global economic imbalances highlighted by the market meltdown in 2008.
October 26th, 2011 · 3 Comments
World attention focuses on the problems of the Greek economy — no doubt with a large helping of schadenfreude added: There, but for the grace of God, go the rest of us is the thought.
September 28th, 2011 · 38 Comments
This week the Australian stock market slid into what I would call a bear market although some would argue that it has avoided such fate by a whisker. The reality is however that the ASX All Ordinaries did close below 4000 recently and that represents a drop of just over 20% from levels seen in April. If it looks and feels like a bear market, then for me it is a bear market.