A sure sign that an economic trend has been established is when the OECD finally jumps on the trend bandwagon and recently the OECD has joined the group of recently converted economic pessimists. Gone are the days when big borrowing, big spending governments would save the day – the theme of the day now is hang onto your hats because we might be in for a bumpy ride.
Entries Categorised as 'Economy'
August 24th, 2011 · 19 Comments
Over the last few months media commentary regarding the Australian economy has turned decidedly gloomy. The wonders of the mining boom are now being questioned, the U.S. and European economies matter again and people are starting to wake up to the reality that an economic strategy that basically relies on China dragging Australia along for the ride might not be that clever.
August 5th, 2011 · 69 Comments
As I write today the Australian stock market has slumped around -4% so far after the Dow Jones fell -4.3% and markets in Europe also ended sharply lower. As per usual, many finance journalists are hurriedly pumping out scary stories and dramatic headlines to gain readers attention so it’s time to grab a cup of coffee, relax and focus on the facts.
July 6th, 2011 · 24 Comments
As each week passes the moans of struggling businesses grow louder and finally it appears that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) board members have woken up to the fact that the economy has been sliding backwards since late 2010. Once again the RBA had made a tactical blunder and raised rates too high just as they did as the global financial crisis was unfolding back in late 2007.
June 20th, 2011 · 14 Comments
On a daily basis, dozens of finance and business journalists try to convince the general public that they somehow have an insight into what the Australian economy is doing or how the economy will fare over the next six months or so. But the truth is, nobody has a clue what will happen for the rest of this year as we are still stuck in the Economic Twilight Zone.
May 31st, 2011 · 16 Comments
Last year when I dared to suggest that the Australian economy was unbalanced and that 2011-2012 could be a period of economic contraction the mainstream financial reporters were churning out “miracle” economy stories. Back then they were obsessed with telling their readers how the mining boom would shower riches across the Great Southern Land, but today many of them have started to sound a lot more cautious.
May 16th, 2011 · 6 Comments
On budget night Wayne Swan could have saved us all a lot of time by simply standing up and saying that his plan for the Australian economy was to simply sit back and hope the mining boom continued. As I have said for over a year now, Australian policy makers have set the economy up for a severe downturn if commodities prices slump and there is no Plan B.
April 18th, 2011 · 16 Comments
We are almost through a third of 2011 and the mood across global markets appears to be decidedly downbeat. The bullish voices of late 2010 have now faded and even the Reserve Bank of Australia and Federal Treasurer are sounding cautious. But don’t be fooled by the talk that recent events have caused the global economy to face headwinds because the reality is that 2011 was always going to be a tough year.
April 5th, 2011 · 207 Comments
Back in April last year I suggested that the Australian economy was not quite as robust as most market commentators appeared to think and that it was quite possible for economic conditions to deteriorate quite markedly over the next few years. So now one year later after I wrote about a possible economic slump in Australia let’s have a look at how events have unfolded since then.
October 23rd, 2010 · 43 Comments
Over the last few weeks most of the financial media have once again managed to draw the wrong conclusions on a range of issues from Australian dollar to the strength of the Australian economy. Talk of the so called two speed economy seems to be back in vogue whereas I believe we should be focused on and worried by, the unbalanced nature of the Australian economy.
September 4th, 2010 · 4 Comments
If you are confused about the conflicting reports regarding the Australian economy and outlook for the stock market you are not alone. Much of this confusion is caused by financial journalists who one day are talking about a double dip recession and then suddenly switch to chirping about a robust Australian economy once some positive economic data appears.
August 27th, 2010 · 32 Comments
Well the Dow Jones closed this morning below 10,000 and for those financial writers who focus more on grabbing reader’s attention rather than on facts, that can only mean one thing: the U.S economy is heading for a double dip recession! Of course the fact that the U.S economy is actually expanding, as are other major economies like China, Japan and Germany, appears irrelevant to many market commentators who seem intent on making investors fear that another economic crisis is at hand.
July 6th, 2010 · 3 Comments
As readers of this blog will know, I believe that the G20 leaders meetings are generally a waste of time and fossil fuels. After each meeting all we ever get is some vague declaration that basically says all the G20 leaders are wonderful with the mainstream media simply rehashing press releases and happy to go along for the ride. The latest G20 gathering in Toronto, Canada, was no different except that more police cars were set alight.
May 17th, 2010 · 39 Comments
Now that the major stock markets around the world are falling the Australian media have become obsessed with the concept of a “two speed economy”. I am not sure who first started using this term, maybe it was the gurus at the Treasury or the Reserve Bank, but in my view there is no such thing as a two speed economy. The situation we have now is that the economy has simply been mismanaged.