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Entries Categorised as 'Economy'

What might an Australian economic slump look like?

April 30th, 2010 · 140 Comments

If you are an investor and you have not contemplated an economic slump in Australia during the next few years then in my view, you might be in for a nasty surprise. Yes the Australian economy did hold up well during the worst of global financial crisis, but the crisis isn’t over yet and it still has some sting left in it’s tail. (just ask the people of Greece!)

Another G20 love-in, the global recovery and China.

April 25th, 2010 · 36 Comments

All hail to the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors, for according to the communiqué from G20 meeting in Washington, they have saved the world from a financial crisis and will now lead us into a new era of growing global trade. Of course if the G20 actually functioned properly in the first place we would not be in the mess we are in now, but I guess they don’t talk about that much at the meeting.

Is the Australian economy really booming?

April 5th, 2010 · 57 Comments

According to many major news outlets and financial commentators in Australia, the recent trade data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) is proof  that the Australian economy is “booming”.  The Reserve Bank also seems to think the nation is in the midst of a boom and the amazing Ken Henry (of where is my tax report fame) reckons Australia will enjoy a “golden age” for decades.

Can Australian home prices keep rising?

February 1st, 2010 · 914 Comments

Back in the 2008/2009 when home prices in parts of Europe and the United States were tumbling there were plenty of “experts” saying Australian house prices would also come crashing down. But alas the residential property market remained fairly robust during the global financial crisis and the experts who predicted a crash in property prices were wrong.

Why the Ken Henry taxation review will achieve little.

January 26th, 2010 · 19 Comments

For some time now investors and the public in general have been drip fed details of what might or might not be included in grand sounding “Australia’s Future Tax System Review”. Now that the report has been handed over to Wayne Swan and the Government it might be tempting for us to think that we will see sweeping changes to Australia’s tax system, but I am here to tell you that little will happen and here’s why.

When the Chinese economy slows, Australia’s may tumble.

January 21st, 2010 · 9 Comments

All things considered 2009 was not a bad year for the Australian economy and certainly a good year for the Australian stock market. Now with the worst of the global financial crisis apparently behind us all should be well in 2010 correct? Well maybe, China willing, but where others see blue skies ahead for the economy I see storm clouds.

Shareswatch Australia Blog: hits & misses of 2009

January 8th, 2010 · 2 Comments

It is time once again to put my ramblings, rants and ruminations for the previous 12 months under the spotlight. Did I correctly spot any stock market or economic trends or should I be standing in the corner with the dunce cap on for most of 2010?

ASX stocks, the Baltic Dry Index & the Copenhagen Circus.

December 17th, 2009 · 5 Comments

Both the ASX All Ordinaries and S&P/ASX 200 have been basically moving sideways now since September and although the market may seem to be drifting, it is actually reflecting fairly accurately the state of the Australian economy. For despite what some finance journalists seem to believe, the Australian economy will not be able to surge ahead simply because the Chinese are stimulating their domestic economy.

Exports down, imports up and an economy sliding backwards.

December 9th, 2009 · 9 Comments

Some time ago I wrote that we would better served by having a Hobbit look after the Australian economy than the RBA, Treasury & Government and recent events have made this idea look particularly attractive. For at present we have the RBA raising rates, the Government spending and the Treasury appears to be unsure what is happening.

Trying to take in the big picture global economic view.

November 17th, 2009 · 4 Comments

When it is hard to make sense of what is going on with the global economy I feel it is often best to try and remove the noise created by endless stock market reports, economic surveys, financial forecasts etc. and try and focus on facts not fiction. It also helps to put aside people’s opinions (including our own), relax and calmly assess what the data is really telling us, as opposed to trying to use this data to predict the future.

Economic mixed signals, the ASX All Ords and gold prices.

November 11th, 2009 · 22 Comments

Despite how convincing market experts appear on television or how cleverly they put pen to paper, the truth is that nobody knows for sure how the global economy will perform next year. For every positive sign or trend there is a worrying one, and despite the Dow Jones having some strong days recently the fact is the U.S. economy is still in bad shape.

Australia’s Balance of Trade, the Funky Four and the ASX All Ordinaries.

November 6th, 2009 · 3 Comments

Have you noticed of late how the Australian stock market is just not listening to the Reserve Bank’s Glenn Stevens? No matter how optimistic the RBA Governor sounds the ASX All Ords refuses to surge past 5000, so what is happening? Are investors wrong about the state of the Australian economy and simply not picking up on the positive economic indicators the RBA is apparently seeing?

GDP growth does not equal a quality Australian economy.

November 3rd, 2009 · 12 Comments

It would be easy to get the impression by listening to the Government, the Reserve Bank, the Treasury, financial journalists and many economists that it is undeniably good if Australia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expands, but is that entirely correct? Is there such as thing as bad GDP growth?

The forgotten economic giant: The European Union.

November 1st, 2009 · 3 Comments

In the frenzy to churn out China growth stories most financial and business journalists in Australia appear to live in a world where the European Union either no longer exists or does not matter. I must admit I also do not pay enough attention to European economic data, so today I will have a quick look at the European Union and outline why I believe we should all pay more attention to developments on the other side of the planet.

Ken Henry and his tax review: should we be worried?

October 6th, 2009 · 165 Comments

Back in May 2008, when times were good and the inflation genie was free, the Government announced that a review of Australia’s tax system would be undertaken. But that was before the global financial crisis struck and a lot has changed since then, so should we be worried about what recommendations the review panel will make?

A slow global recovery, the Australian economy & the stock market.

October 2nd, 2009 · 12 Comments

If you were to believe the various ramblings of Kevin Rudd, Wayne Swan, Glenn Stevens and Ken Henry, then you would be under the impression that the Australian economy is about to power ahead in 2010. But if the IMF expects global growth to be slow, why would Australia be set to do any better?

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