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Entries Categorised as 'Economy'

Australian stocks, house prices and the economy in September 2010

September 23rd, 2009 · 83 Comments

One year has now passed since the failure of Lehman Brothers sent global financial markets plunging and only recently has it felt that the global economy may finally be entering a period of recovery. But will conditions be better or worse in 12 months? Will house prices be higher or lower and where will Australian stocks be in September 2010?

The Baltic Dry Index, exchange rates and liquid fuels consumption.

September 18th, 2009 · 4 Comments

Over the past few weeks most of the economic news from Australia’s major trading partners has been fairly good. As a result the Australian stock market has continued to rise along with markets in Europe, Asia and the United States. But before we get too carried away it is probably a good idea to look beyond stock prices in order to check how the global economy is really faring.

Tough times ahead for Australian economy & businesses.

September 8th, 2009 · 3 Comments

According to many reports in the media Australia has escaped a technical recession and the nations future is so bright that we will all have to wear shades. But despite the somewhat upbeat business and financial news of late the reality is that the next few years are going to be very challenging for Australian companies.

No time to party yet: Australia’s GDP data is not that good.

September 3rd, 2009 · 6 Comments

It seems that many financial journalists and commentators have decided that Australia has escaped a recession, and that the economy is doing just fine now based on the  June Quarter GDP figures that have just been released. But I wonder how many of them looked into the GDP data in detail and spotted the warning signs?

A global economic recovery does not mean business as usual.

August 24th, 2009 · 16 Comments

After the strong stock market rally today I think we can safely say the bear market of 2008-2009 is now well and truly over. The ASX All Ordinaries & ASX 200 are still clearly trending upwards and commentators who were predicting a Global Depression just a few months ago have started adjusting their forecasts.

Will Glenn Stevens and the RBA ever admit they make mistakes?

August 18th, 2009 · 8 Comments

Recently Glenn Stevens of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) appears to be taking credit for everything from the robust nature of the Australian economy to the mining boom. What he seems to have forgotten or is not willing to admit, is that the RBA has made a number of  forecasts over the last couple of years that have been very wrong and probably raised interest rates too high in 2008.

OECD Consumer Prices: is deflation or inflation on the way?

August 6th, 2009 · No Comments

A lot of attention has been focused on consumer prices recently as economists try to determine if deflation or inflation is going to be the next challenge for the OECD economies to deal with. On the surface it would seem that due to falling asset prices, unemployment and the decline in personal wealth that this would push many of these economies into a significant period of deflation. But is that really likely to happen?

Government debt, inflation and interest rates.

August 5th, 2009 · 15 Comments

The tentative signs of a global recovery (albeit a weak one) are becoming stronger each day and people who predicted a global depression have faded from view.  So the Australian economy is poised for growth again and everything is back on track right? Well not quite.

The Economic Twilight Zone.

July 29th, 2009 · 6 Comments

The world’s major stock markets have all enjoyed fairly strong rallies over the last week or so and in Australian the ASX All Ordinaries has run up around 30% since March. But there is a sense of unease amongst investors because there are still plenty of economic indicators that suggest the global economy still faces challenges.  That is because we have entered what I call the Economic Twilight Zone!

The S&P/ASX 200, the U.S. economy and Australian tourism.

July 8th, 2009 · 15 Comments

The ASX S&P 200 appears to be moving sideways, the U.S. economy is a mess and overseas tourists are not flocking “Down Under” like they once did. What does all this mean and will Australia win the Ashes series?

Is deflation really such a bad thing?

June 27th, 2009 · 10 Comments

Now that the world seems to have avoided falling into an economic heap, various pundits have switched their attention to life after the global financial crisis. Of course if you spend most of your life saying the world economy is doomed then there has to be a crisis after this current crisis and one scenario being talked about is where many developed nations will enter a period of deflation.

Australian home prices, spending trends and statistics.

June 8th, 2009 · 15 Comments

The debate about where Australian home prices are heading appears to be getting more intense these days. Commentators who have been predicting home prices will crash have seized on falls seen so far as proof they are right, whereas those who believe prices will not crash pounce on the same data and says it supports their view. Confusing isn’t it?

Global market news – what is it telling us?

June 7th, 2009 · 1 Comment

Depending on your point of view the world’s stock markets are either having a temporary rally before they continue their downward slide or we are witnessing the start of a slow global economic recovery. But rather than make any assumptions or speculate on the future let’s look at what the news from markets around the world might be telling us.

The Catch-22 recession: send in the clowns!

June 4th, 2009 · 11 Comments

Well Australia has avoided a “technical recession” for now so I guess this means that if you have lost your job or your business is struggling then technically you are actually doing fine. But if we are not in a recession, why are company profits taking a beating, unemployment rising and the stock market still so low?

A large population is not always the road to economic success

May 29th, 2009 · 8 Comments

Many economists appear to believe that if  a nation’s population is growing then this is  good for the  economy as well, especially in developed countries. But in a world where resources will need to be shared amongst a growing number of affluent consumers I believe the opposite is often true.

The end of the beginning or the beginning of the end?

May 22nd, 2009 · 6 Comments

For many months now debate has raged in the mainstream media, online forums and blogs about what the long term impact of the global financial crisis will be.  Some people appear to believe we are entering an economic version of The Dark Ages whereas other more optimistic types view the current period as an ideal time snap up cheap assets and prepare for the next economic boom. Like many debates, the truth probably lies somewhere between these two views.

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