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Entries Categorised as 'Economy'

Federal Budget 2009: The Yes Minister preview.

May 11th, 2009 · 6 Comments

Lights, camera, action! It is almost time for another budget from the masters of spin and we are all invited to watch the drama unfold. The 2009 federal budget will be one of the most eagerly awaited budgets in years and the key question for me is: why is the Government talking up the need to borrow and spend one moment and then in the next breath, warning us that we all need to share the pain because the Government has to reign in spending?

World stock markets rally: is the bear back in its cage?

April 14th, 2009 · 4 Comments

Without a doubt there are a lot of scary economic numbers out there and as far as the Australian economy goes, things seem to be heading downhill fast. But as strange as it seems, the bad news recently has not been all that bad and actually there has even been some good news. So is it possible that at long last that the bear is back in its cage?

Is it time for another Australian sovereign wealth fund?

April 9th, 2009 · 10 Comments

It seems the Australian government is in the mood to throw money around in order to try and lessen the impact of the recession, but one option that does not seem to have been raised is for the government to establish another sovereign wealth fund. This new fund could act as means of supporting the stock market and provide a source of income over future years to maintain spending on such things as national infrastructure and healthcare.

The Australian home prices debate Part 2: Why prices may not collapse.

March 21st, 2009 · 171 Comments

In Part 1 of the Australian home prices debate I looked at some of the factors that could drive home prices down in Australia. Now in Part 2, I shall outline the other side of the debate and consider the arguments that support the view that the Australian residential property market will generally withstand the fallout from the global financial crisis and not follow prices down in a similar way to the U.S. and U.K.

The Australian home prices debate Part 1: Why prices may fall.

March 19th, 2009 · 339 Comments

One of the most discussed economic topics at the moment in Australia is regarding whether real estate prices are about to plunge across the nation or if Australian residential property will generally be spared from the savage price falls seen in the U.S. and the U.K.  Rather than take sides in this debate, I will merely outline some of the arguments being tossed around in newspapers, online forums and blogs etc. and see how well they hold up to scrutiny.

The recession, economic stimulus and the stock market.

March 15th, 2009 · 53 Comments

Often economists, journalists and politicians use so much jargon when talking about the current economic situation that is is hard to follow what they are actually trying to say. Economists for example cannot seem to agree on anything except that they are legends in their own minds, journalists try and fumble through economic discussions and politicians simply try and convince us they know what they are talking about. The simple fact is much of the time all three groups talk utter rubbish.

The Recession and Rudd’s Plan 9 from Outer Space.

March 4th, 2009 · 9 Comments

Can the discussion surrounding the Australian economy get any more bizarre? Will economists continue to make vague observations? Will our politicians spend most of 2009 making nonsensical statements aimed to please the plebs? If you answered yes to all three questions then you are well prepared for the year ahead.

The inflation genie and the deflation goblin.

January 21st, 2009 · 4 Comments

Well it seems the inflation genie is back in the bottle and that the bottle is back in the cupboard. Therefore our wise leaders in Canberra have in less than 12 months gone from fighting inflation, to trying to stimulate growth and save the Australian economy from recession. Of course none of the economic problems Australia faces today have anything to do with government blunders, it is all China’s fault.

A new year, more government blunders and a sleeping RBA.

January 15th, 2009 · 3 Comments

Well another year has begun and I am starting to wish it was 2008 again. If 2008 was the year in which stock market investors were humbled, then 2009 is starting to look like the year in which we will be humiliated. We are now half way through January and many people will tell you that if the market ends down in January it will also be down at the end of the year. So far things are not looking good.

Is the golden era for the Australian stock market over?

January 10th, 2009 · 3 Comments

One question that investors need to consider amongst all this market turmoil is; has the dream run of the Australian stock market come to end? Perhaps for example the days of the Australian market (ASX) outperforming the Dow Jones Index are over and we need to be prepared for less glamorous returns? We might even have to put aside our patriotic feelings and look offshore for better returns in the future?

Shareswatch Blog: hits and misses of 2008.

January 6th, 2009 · 3 Comments

There is something you should have noticed by now about most of the finance and stock market related news websites and that is; they are great at picking the best and worst investment events of the past, but they say very little about how accurate their analysis of events were throughout the year.

Japan, China and the Australian Economy.

December 28th, 2008 · 17 Comments

One of the many misjudgements made by the Rudd Government in managing the Australian economy this year has been their almost fanatical belief that Australia would be shielded from the worst of the global financial crisis because of our trade with China. For the first part of this year in addition to the “War on Inflation”, Rudd and Swan were also pushing the line that our significant exports to China would keep the Australian economy ticking over nicely despite the problems brewing in the economies of the United States and the Eurozone.

Australian stock market outlook for 2009.

December 20th, 2008 · 2 Comments

Like most stock market investors I will end the year well and truly bruised.  Although I wrote earlier in the year that 2008 would not be a good for Australian shares, I have to admit I did not think it was going to be this bad. Therefore I am hesitant to make any comments regarding the Australian stock market in 2009 as I am sure to find little turns out as I expect.  However just as Nigel Tufnel was able to rise above substandard catering on the Spinal Tap Tour, I am going to rise above the current carnage and outline what I think will happen as next year unfolds.

Actions to stimulate the economy in 2009 and beyond.

December 16th, 2008 · 7 Comments

It seems that almost everyday we hear about another government plan aimed to stimulate the economy. Finally it seems the government has stopped blaming the previous government for inflation (and a large budget surplus) and is now blaming the world for the slow down in the Australian economy.

Be prepared for the recession we might have avoided.

December 11th, 2008 · 5 Comments

Although Kevin Rudd stated some weeks ago that Australia would not slide into a recession it seems another one of his forecasts has exposed just what an economic dunce he is. Possibly only Wayne Swan can make worse assessments regarding the state of the Australian economy with Glen “I raised rates too far” Stevens (the Reserve Bank Governor) finishing of a trio of people who are best ignored. As I wrote a while back…we would be better served by getting a hobbit and wizard into the government economic team as soon as possible. (see The RBA,Swan and a Hobbit)

A stock market rout and probable recession: it could be worse.

December 5th, 2008 · No Comments

There is not a lot of good economic news in circulation at the moment. Today for example I read that the Dubai real estate market is heading for a big fall, and so it seems one of the last pockets economic optimism is about to get that gloomy feeling. I guess this might mean the end of man made islands shaped like continents, so perhaps it is not all bad news.

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