Shareswatch Australia

Australian stock market investing, ASX charts, analysis & market forecasts.

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Entries Categorised as 'Economy'

Economic Groupthink: a dangerous trend.

November 28th, 2008 · No Comments

One of the worrying trends that has emerged in Australia during 2008 is the way the government has created an atmosphere that is conducive to groupthink (group think) behaviour. Views that are not aligned with “Rudd’s World” are attacked as reckless or irresponsible by the government, and the mainstream media appear willing to slap down any dissenting opinions.

Why the global economy will recover.

November 27th, 2008 · No Comments

It is hard to remain optimistic at the moment and the attention grabbing headlines churned out by the media do not help people sleep at night. I have lost count how many times I have seen the current economic mess compared to the Great Depression or labelled “The biggest economic crisis in our lifetimes”. (I guess you need to factor in how old you are for that tag to work) The fact is we are in a very nasty economic correction but eventually things will settle down and the global economy will do as it has done for hundreds of years…..grow.

The G-20, bad news and further stock market falls.

November 20th, 2008 · No Comments

Well the market has continued to fall during the past few weeks and now I am starting to wonder if we will even see the bear market reach a bottom this year. You might recall I was counting on the market to rally by now so clearly events have not worked out as I expected. But there are reasons why we have not seen a major sustained rally and I think it is useful to look at some of these reasons in detail.

The car industry, six billion dollars and another blunder.

November 12th, 2008 · No Comments

Well done Kevin Rudd, just weeks after causing chaos in the financial markets with his bank deposit guarantee, he has been able to pull another blunder out of his magic hat and found a way to potentially waste six billion dollars of Australian taxpayers money. Let’s be totally clear from the start here, the bailout package for the Australian car manufacturing sector is a political stunt aimed at shoring up support with the unions and Australians who seem to think we have a car manufacturing industry.

Economic forecasts, estimates and models for 2009.

November 7th, 2008 · No Comments

It seems that 2009 is going to be one those years where economists, politicians and investors etc. will find out just how inaccurate most economic forecasts really are. In the good years if growth estimates for the economy are off the mark nobody seems too stressed, but when economic conditions deteriorate people tend to get more concerned about forecasts.

Government economic blunders of 2008. (so far)

October 28th, 2008 · No Comments

When we look back at the economic crisis this year, (and I am hoping at some point we are looking backwards) any reasonable appraisal of how events unfolded should include a scathing attack on the economic blunders made by the Australian government and in particular by the Prime Minister Kevin Rudd and the Treasurer, Wayne Swan.

Staying calm in a stock market driven by fear.

October 11th, 2008 · No Comments

You will often hear people talking about how the stock market is driven by the human emotions of fear and greed, and at the moment it is pretty obvious that the market is being driven down by fear. So how can you stay calm in this environment and not let fear cloud your judgement?

The U.S. 700 billion dollar question!

September 26th, 2008 · No Comments

Another day, another drama thanks to the U.S. financial system and the U.S financial regulators. After years of lecturing the Japanese on how they should operate their banking system. the U.S. bankers now finds themselves choking on humble pie as Japanese companies move in and take significant stakes in U.S investments banks.

The Reserve Bank, rates cuts and a possible nasty turn.

August 2nd, 2008 · 1 Comment

As I have mentioned on a few occasions I believe the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) went too far with their interest rate increases especially when a possible global downturn was on the radar. We now find ourselves in a situation where the RBA is focused on inflation (much of it beyond their control) whereas the real threat is that the Australian economy will stall.

Forecast for 2008: review and update.

July 4th, 2008 · No Comments

Back in March this year, I tentatively outlined my market forecast for 2008 based on a number of assumptions as contained in my blog: Are we near the bottom. Since I am the first to admit that forecasts are rarely 100% (or even 80%) correct it would seem now is a prudent time to review my assumptions and update my forecast to cover the last 6 months of this year and a little into CY2009 as well.

End of financial year thoughts.

June 25th, 2008 · No Comments

Well what a terrible first half of 2008 and a shocking close to the financial year. After watching the market over the last week or so, I decided the best course of action was to finish work just after lunch and catch up with some reading and movie watching. One thing I was not doing was selling as I have no idea why people wait until this time of year to sell and take tax losses. In fact I picked up a few small parcels of shares as I hope we will see some upward market movement in July.

Those annoying market bears.

June 5th, 2008 · No Comments

Investing in the stock market recently has not been a lot of fun. Many people would be holding some stocks in their portfolio’s that have been savaged with quite a few stocks 40-60% lower than they were just 6 months ago. It is not just the small caps that have been hit either, even the usually reliable banks have been hit hard and it can all make one feel a little depressed at times.

The Fluffy Duck and Teflon Man Budget.

May 26th, 2008 · No Comments

Wayne “Fluffy Duck” Swan and Kevin “Teflon Man” Rudd have delivered their first budget and so I will share my thoughts on a few areas in the budget and my impression of the budget overall.

Are we near the bottom?

March 23rd, 2008 · No Comments

One thing all investors would like to know is if the Australian Stock Market has reached a bottom and when things will start to recover. Like everyone else, I cannot predict the future but I can at least outline what I think (hope) will happen and how I am positioning my own investments.

Where to for the Australian Economy?

February 12th, 2008 · No Comments

Let me first start by saying I think any predictions about the future are best described as forward looking guesstimates. So before reading on, please remember this is just my view and I am not aware of any ability I have to see clearly into the future.

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