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Australian stock market investing, ASX charts, analysis & market forecasts.

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Entries Categorised as 'Forecasts'

Australian Stock Market Outlook & Forecast for 2017

April 3rd, 2017 · 60 Comments

Each year I outline how I think the Australian Stock Market might fare bearing in mind that my forecast, like all forecasts, is actually a calculated guesstimate – at best. None of us know with any certainty how the financial markets will ride out the year and it’s probably a safe assumption that anyone that implies that they do is either trying to sell you a book or website subscription. But a forecast can be a useful planning exercise even if it simply makes us think of the factors that might move the markets. So once again I will go out on a limb and add my forecast to the galaxy of other forecasts.

Trump, resources and an ASX market rally

December 20th, 2016 · 6 Comments

The U.S. election result has thrown another Brexit event at the markets and once again the markets have done and are doing the opposite of what many experts predicted. I did not focus on the U.S, election in too much detail and expected any post election rally or sell-off to be short-lived. However just as the sky never fell when voters in the U.K. decided to leave the European Union it’s has remained in place after the surprising win by Donald Trump. The biggest surprise though is that the so called “Trump Rally” keeps on going and so far, the Australian stock market seems to be following the lead and since early November has staged a fairly strong rally also.

The Australian Stock Market is Struggling

October 31st, 2016 · 30 Comments

Although many commentators in the finance media have found reasons to write excitedly about the Australian stock market during the last two months I have been unable to do so. Yes some ASX listed shares have risen sharply in price and profits have been there for some investors, but overall it’s been a very dull and boring few months apart from a correction that I wrote about at the end of August.

Australian Stock Market Set for a Pull-Back

August 31st, 2016 · 24 Comments

The last couple of months have been eventful for the Australian stock market. First, for reasons unknown, it was was moved by the Brexit referendum result and then as the 2016 Australian Federal Election saga slowly unfolded the market really didn’t do much at all, even-though Malcolm Turnbull almost managed to lose all the seats Tony Abbott had won for the coalition parties in the previous election. Despite these events however the S&P/ASX has gained ground and has edged up to around the 5400-5600 range…again.

Australian Stock Market Outlook & Forecast for 2016

January 29th, 2016 · 68 Comments

Although much of the commentary in the mainstream finance media conveys the impression that the Australian stock market is in the midst of unprecedented correction, the reality is as usual somewhat different.  In fact, considering the rout in commodities prices it’s somewhat surprising that the ASX All Ordinaries and S&P/ASX 200 are still around the 5000 level. This suggests to me that the market is probably near a multi-year low and that despite all the pessimism, it’s unlikely to finish the year lower.

U.S. Market: These Monthly Stock Charts Say It All

January 19th, 2016 · 4 Comments

Since mid-2014, the US stock market has been showing signs of the underlying market weakening. During the last quarter of 2015, the stock market had its first major bout of distribution selling, which confirmed our analysis that the bull market is nearly over. If you have been following my articles for a while, then you may be tired of my warnings of the bear market, which is on the verge of starting. In fact, the TSX Toronto stock exchange, US Transportation index and the Russell 2000 small-cap index have all been in bull blown bear markets for six months already.

The future’s not bright for the Australian Economy

July 27th, 2015 · 11 Comments

Some years ago when I wrote that it was only a matter of time before economic growth in China slowed and commodities prices fell, the mainstream media in Australia at that time were obsessed with the commodities super cycle and the Chinese “miracle” economy. However now there is widespread acceptance that the commodities boom is over and that the Chinese economy isn’t bulletproof after all. However it now seems difficult for many to accept that as a consequence of those two realities that the Australian Economy is poised for some years limited growth…at best.

The ASX 200 – On a Road to Nowhere

May 8th, 2015 · 20 Comments

This week we have seen the S&P/ASX 200 bounce around quite a bit, but generally speaking the trend of late has been back down towards 5600. This movement has probably surprised some investors especially those who were quite bullish just some weeks ago when the ASX 200 appeared poised to rally past the 6000 level.

U.S. Market: 4 Month Forecast – Gold, Oil, Stocks & Bonds

April 10th, 2015 · 5 Comments

Everyone is looking for the holy grail of the financial market which will tell what will happen next in stocks, commodities, bonds etc… Knowing that the holy grail of trading does not exist I am going to step out on a limb and share my four month stock market forecast along with commodities and bonds.

Oil, Commodities & Baltic Dry Index

February 8th, 2015 · 1 Comment

The long expected commodities sell-off is still a work in progress with many of the commodities bulls from just a year or so ago now covering their tracks by making ultra-bearish predictions. But let’s bypass the usual hype in the mainstream finance media and focus on some trends and commodity price charts to see if there are any signs the correction may be easing.

Australian Stock Market Outlook & Forecast for 2015

January 16th, 2015 · 23 Comments

This year it is going to be tougher than normal to put together a forecast for the Australian stock market simply because we are in the midst of quite a nasty commodities rout. However I been warning for while that a major correction in commodities prices would hit the market so I am going to look through the current turmoil and try to see where the ASX All Ordinaries and S&P/ASX 200 may finish up at the end of the year.

Oil, the Baltic Dry Index and Copper

December 18th, 2014 · 17 Comments

According to the prevailing wisdom of the finance media and it seems most market analysts, the fall in the price of oil has not only been sudden but also unexpected. I suspect much of this has to do with a number of people trying to deflect attention away from their earlier bullish calls and it’s amazing how many market bulls have now morphed into long-term market bears. Unfortunately for them the process has not been a total success and if you look closely, you can still see their horns.

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