Shareswatch Australia

Australian stock market investing, ASX charts, analysis & market forecasts.

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Entries Categorised as 'Forecasts'

Short Term ASX Market Outlook & Trading Strategy Update

February 24th, 2014 · 6 Comments

Over the last couple of weeks the Australian stock market has been on the rise with the ASX All Ordinaries & S&P/ASX 200 heading towards 5500. As a result there is now much talk about a bull market and of investors chasing yield which for me, is simply background noise. What I am really interested in is trying to understand if the market is set to keep rising or if it’s time to adopt a defensive strategy for the time being.

Australian Stock Market Outlook & Forecast for 2014

February 5th, 2014 · 31 Comments

This year I am a little late in dusting off the crystal ball but it’s now time once again to study the tea leaves, throw some bones over my shoulder and try and forecast how the ASX All Ordinaries Index & S&P/ASX 200 Index may perform this year. Firstly let me stress, as I have done many times in the past, that none of us mere mortals have the ability to see into the future and so any stock market forecast is a calculated or semi-calculated guess.

ASX All Ordinaries Index: Charts, Analysis & Trading Ranges

December 16th, 2013 · 5 Comments

At this time of year we are bombarded with the less than useful reflections of market analysts, brokers and finance columnists who use the benefit of hindsight to tell us mere mortals how they spotted the trends for the year and how easy it was to have profited from the stock market. I however will spare my readers this ordeal and calmly analyse charts of the ASX All Ordinaries Index going back 10 years. I will also look back on the long term outlook for the Australian stock market that I outlined in 2009 and review how events have unfolded since then.

2013 Federal Election, All Ordinaries & Stock Market Outlook

September 8th, 2013 · 3 Comments

Well it’s over at last – the end of what has essentially been a three year election campaign in Australia and hopefully also the end of political instability; but that may be asking for too much. Tony Abbott will be the next Prime Minister of Australia, Kevin Rudd will now get on with doing what he does best what he does best – sulk in a corner and the Australian stock market will probably not do a lot.

Has the Australian Economy entered a period of long term decline?

August 13th, 2013 · 22 Comments

There has been a lot of noise about the Australian economy of late due to the federal election campaign, and most likely much of what is talked about by politicians is not worth paying much attention to. For investors the bigger and more important issues are related to if the Australian economy is in long term decline or is the economy simply heading through a short term rough patch.

A Stock Market Correction. So What?

June 21st, 2013 · 21 Comments

The markets have had a rough time of late and yesterday the combination of Ben Bernake talking about a slowdown in printing dollars and a weak PMI figure out of China resulted in all major stock markets falling with the Dow Jones slumping by more than -350 points overnight. Ouch!

For the Australian stock market, moving sideways may be a good outcome.

June 10th, 2013 · 12 Comments

Over the last few years I have written on several occasions about how the Australian stock market has essentially moved sideways and how I expected both the All Ordinaries Index and ASX S&P/ASX 200 to both bounce around between 4800 – 5200.  Even when the market bulls got excited recently as the 5200 level was briefly breached, I maintained my long held view that the market is trading in a recession like zone.

A mixed market outlook and long term investing

April 30th, 2013 · 20 Comments

The Australian stock market has posted some good gains recently with the ASX All Ordinaries Index and S&P/ASX 200 Index both closing above 5100 yesterday. Instead of the markets showing some weakness as I expected, they appear to be rallying even despite falls in commodities prices and warning signs that the Chinese economy may start to slow again. This makes it difficult to get a feel for where the markets might be heading and economic stimulus measures in the United States, China and Japan complicate the outlook even further.

What could be the next move for the ASX All Ordinaries Index?

March 27th, 2013 · 12 Comments

Since mid last year, the Australian stock market has staged a fairly impressive rally with the ASX All Ordinaries Index moving from a decidedly bearish level of down near 4000 to a bull market level of just under 5200 points. But of late the market has slipped back which will worry some investors, while others see this a simply a pause before the rally upwards continues.

Signs that a Correction Maybe Near in the SPX, RUT & DJIA

January 24th, 2013 · 1 Comment

The great market prognosticators have by now came out with their 2013 predictions about financial markets. It seems to me to be a fool’s game to try to predict what financial markets are going to do in the future. I want to be clear in stating that I do not know what is going to happen in the future. I do not know where the S&P 500 Index is going to trade tomorrow let alone 6 months from now. Most market pundits simply will not admit to this fact.

Australian stock market outlook & forecast for 2013

January 8th, 2013 · 40 Comments

Once again it is time to dust off the crystal ball, stick a finger in the air and toss some chicken bones over my shoulder in a vain attempt to forecast what the Australian stock market will do in 2013.  Last year the ASX All Ordinaries and S&P/ASX 200 posted respectable gains, but will they do so again this year?

Australian stock market outlook and forecast for Q4 2012

October 1st, 2012 · 22 Comments

As we enter the last quarter of trading for 2012 we are confronted by a market which appears to be trending upwards since bottoming out in June on one hand, and a gloomy outlook for the global economy on the other. Surprisingly if we have another good few months the ASX All Ordinaries Index could be up near 5000 by the end of the year which just a few months ago, appeared very unlikely.

ASX All Ordinaries Index Charts & Trends – August 2012

August 19th, 2012 · 36 Comments

Now that the Australian stock market has staged a very modest rally over the last few weeks an assortment of finance writers, brokers & market watchers will begin to speculate if this rally is the start of something big.  Indeed if we focus on the short term the market has done fairly well over the last few weeks, however the longer term trend suggests that the Australian stock market is still stuck in a rut.

Where is the Australian Economy heading in 2012?

February 3rd, 2012 · 19 Comments

It wasn’t that long ago when ex-Treasury Head Ken Henry talked about the Australian economy being in a ‘Golden Age’. I guess when you can retire on a lucrative public service pension and then parachute into a highly paid job as an advisor to the Prime Minister the future does probably seem bright. But now in early 2012 as unemployment appears set to rise and the economy is showing signs of weakness, Ken Henry’s ‘Golden Age’ comment might end up in the same category as Tim Flannery’s ‘Dams will no longer fill’ prediction.

Are Australian stocks set to ride another bull market?

January 27th, 2012 · 23 Comments

Recently the markets appear to have settled somewhat and the Australian stock market has steadily been heading higher so far in 2012. Could we be seeing the early signs of another bull market taking hold or are we about to see another sharp correction take the ASX All Ordinaries back down towards 4000 and perhaps lower?

Gold Price Trend Forecast for 1st Quarter of 2012

January 18th, 2012 · 5 Comments

Over the past five months gold has fallen sharply and is no longer headline news which it once dominated back in 2011 when it was making new highs every day. The shiny metal has been under pressure because traders and investors started to pull some money off the table to lock in gains.

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