Over the last couple of weeks the Australian stock market has been on the rise with the ASX All Ordinaries & S&P/ASX 200 heading towards 5500. As a result there is now much talk about a bull market and of investors chasing yield which for me, is simply background noise. What I am really interested in is trying to understand if the market is set to keep rising or if it’s time to adopt a defensive strategy for the time being.
Entries Categorised as 'Forecasts'
February 24th, 2014 · 6 Comments
February 5th, 2014 · 31 Comments
This year I am a little late in dusting off the crystal ball but it’s now time once again to study the tea leaves, throw some bones over my shoulder and try and forecast how the ASX All Ordinaries Index & S&P/ASX 200 Index may perform this year. Firstly let me stress, as I have done many times in the past, that none of us mere mortals have the ability to see into the future and so any stock market forecast is a calculated or semi-calculated guess.
December 16th, 2013 · 5 Comments
At this time of year we are bombarded with the less than useful reflections of market analysts, brokers and finance columnists who use the benefit of hindsight to tell us mere mortals how they spotted the trends for the year and how easy it was to have profited from the stock market. I however will spare my readers this ordeal and calmly analyse charts of the ASX All Ordinaries Index going back 10 years. I will also look back on the long term outlook for the Australian stock market that I outlined in 2009 and review how events have unfolded since then.
September 8th, 2013 · 3 Comments
Well it’s over at last – the end of what has essentially been a three year election campaign in Australia and hopefully also the end of political instability; but that may be asking for too much. Tony Abbott will be the next Prime Minister of Australia, Kevin Rudd will now get on with doing what he does best what he does best – sulk in a corner and the Australian stock market will probably not do a lot.
August 13th, 2013 · 22 Comments
There has been a lot of noise about the Australian economy of late due to the federal election campaign, and most likely much of what is talked about by politicians is not worth paying much attention to. For investors the bigger and more important issues are related to if the Australian economy is in long term decline or is the economy simply heading through a short term rough patch.
June 21st, 2013 · 21 Comments
The markets have had a rough time of late and yesterday the combination of Ben Bernake talking about a slowdown in printing dollars and a weak PMI figure out of China resulted in all major stock markets falling with the Dow Jones slumping by more than -350 points overnight. Ouch!
June 10th, 2013 · 12 Comments
Over the last few years I have written on several occasions about how the Australian stock market has essentially moved sideways and how I expected both the All Ordinaries Index and ASX S&P/ASX 200 to both bounce around between 4800 – 5200. Even when the market bulls got excited recently as the 5200 level was briefly breached, I maintained my long held view that the market is trading in a recession like zone.
March 27th, 2013 · 12 Comments
Since mid last year, the Australian stock market has staged a fairly impressive rally with the ASX All Ordinaries Index moving from a decidedly bearish level of down near 4000 to a bull market level of just under 5200 points. But of late the market has slipped back which will worry some investors, while others see this a simply a pause before the rally upwards continues.
January 24th, 2013 · 1 Comment
The great market prognosticators have by now came out with their 2013 predictions about financial markets. It seems to me to be a fool’s game to try to predict what financial markets are going to do in the future. I want to be clear in stating that I do not know what is going to happen in the future. I do not know where the S&P 500 Index is going to trade tomorrow let alone 6 months from now. Most market pundits simply will not admit to this fact.
February 3rd, 2012 · 19 Comments
It wasn’t that long ago when ex-Treasury Head Ken Henry talked about the Australian economy being in a ‘Golden Age’. I guess when you can retire on a lucrative public service pension and then parachute into a highly paid job as an advisor to the Prime Minister the future does probably seem bright. But now in early 2012 as unemployment appears set to rise and the economy is showing signs of weakness, Ken Henry’s ‘Golden Age’ comment might end up in the same category as Tim Flannery’s ‘Dams will no longer fill’ prediction.
January 27th, 2012 · 23 Comments
Recently the markets appear to have settled somewhat and the Australian stock market has steadily been heading higher so far in 2012. Could we be seeing the early signs of another bull market taking hold or are we about to see another sharp correction take the ASX All Ordinaries back down towards 4000 and perhaps lower?