The ASX All Ordinaries Index and S&P/ASX 200 Index finished much lower than I expected in 2011, so this makes me somewhat reluctant to go on record and make an Australian stock market forecast for 2012. However the process of looking at the various economic data and trying to guess where the market will end is a useful one, so foolishly I will outline once again my Australian stock market forecast for the year ahead.
Entries Categorised as 'Forecasts'
January 8th, 2012 · 60 Comments
December 7th, 2011 · 34 Comments
The interest rate cut yesterday by the Reserve Bank of Australia suggests that finally the RBA understands that the Chinese economy will not keep expanding at a rapid rate while its major trading partners are struggling. But even if the Chinese economy slows more than most economists expect this is unlikely to send the global economy back into a GFC-like slump.
October 17th, 2011 · 3 Comments
In May of 2010, immediately following the flash crash many investors started to become bearish (nervous) regarding their position in gold and equities. Once the general public became aware that the stock market could fall 10% in a matter of minutes, investors became very cautious. Suddenly protecting their capital and current positions was at the forefront of their investment process.
October 5th, 2011 · 8 Comments
Prices for hard commodities such as copper, iron ore & coal have risen strongly over the past decade and are now trading well above their long term historical averages. This in turn drove the ASX All Ordinaries Index to a bull market high in 2007 and has helped put some support under the market ever since. But is it realistic to expect high commodities prices will keep propping up the Australian stock market?
August 14th, 2011 · 23 Comments
This week was quite a ride for stock market investors with the ASX All Ords and ASX 200 both trading at one stage under 4000 points. However as the week progressed the markets started to claw their way back up and things are not quite as worrying as they were a few days ago. What investors will be trying to work out now is if the stock market rout is over, or is it just having a rest before it once again sends stocks falling?
April 5th, 2011 · 207 Comments
Back in April last year I suggested that the Australian economy was not quite as robust as most market commentators appeared to think and that it was quite possible for economic conditions to deteriorate quite markedly over the next few years. So now one year later after I wrote about a possible economic slump in Australia let’s have a look at how events have unfolded since then.
January 4th, 2011 · 26 Comments
As another year starts it’s time for me to make another stock market forecast, one which I will probably regret making in just a few months time. Generally speaking, I expect that 2011 is not going to be particularly kind to the Australian economy and therefore my Australian stock market forecast is not going to make market bulls very happy.
April 5th, 2010 · 57 Comments
According to many major news outlets and financial commentators in Australia, the recent trade data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) is proof that the Australian economy is “booming”. The Reserve Bank also seems to think the nation is in the midst of a boom and the amazing Ken Henry (of where is my tax report fame) reckons Australia will enjoy a “golden age” for decades.
February 1st, 2010 · 914 Comments
Back in the 2008/2009 when home prices in parts of Europe and the United States were tumbling there were plenty of “experts” saying Australian house prices would also come crashing down. But alas the residential property market remained fairly robust during the global financial crisis and the experts who predicted a crash in property prices were wrong.
December 9th, 2009 · 9 Comments
Some time ago I wrote that we would better served by having a Hobbit look after the Australian economy than the RBA, Treasury & Government and recent events have made this idea look particularly attractive. For at present we have the RBA raising rates, the Government spending and the Treasury appears to be unsure what is happening.
November 17th, 2009 · 4 Comments
When it is hard to make sense of what is going on with the global economy I feel it is often best to try and remove the noise created by endless stock market reports, economic surveys, financial forecasts etc. and try and focus on facts not fiction. It also helps to put aside people’s opinions (including our own), relax and calmly assess what the data is really telling us, as opposed to trying to use this data to predict the future.