Shareswatch Australia

Australian stock market investing, ASX charts, analysis & market forecasts.

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Entries Categorised as 'Forecasts'

Australian stock market outlook & forecast for 2012

January 8th, 2012 · 60 Comments

The ASX All Ordinaries Index and S&P/ASX 200 Index finished much lower than I expected in 2011, so this makes me somewhat reluctant to go on record and make an Australian stock market forecast for 2012. However the process of looking at the various economic data and trying to guess where the market will end is a useful one, so foolishly I will outline once again my Australian stock market forecast for the year ahead.

Oil Prices, the Baltic Dry Index, Stock Markets & Gold.

December 7th, 2011 · 34 Comments

The interest rate cut yesterday by the Reserve Bank of Australia suggests that finally the RBA understands that the Chinese economy will not keep expanding at a rapid rate while its major trading partners are struggling. But even if the Chinese economy slows more than most economists expect this is unlikely to send the global economy back into a GFC-like slump.

Are Gold & U.S. Stocks About to Repeat the 2010 Bottom?

October 17th, 2011 · 3 Comments

In May of 2010, immediately following the flash crash many investors started to become bearish (nervous) regarding their position in gold and equities. Once the general public became aware that the stock market could fall 10% in a matter of minutes, investors became very cautious. Suddenly protecting their capital and current positions was at the forefront of their investment process.

The ASX All Ordinaries and the Commodities Bubble.

October 5th, 2011 · 8 Comments

Prices for hard commodities such as copper, iron ore & coal have risen strongly over the past decade and are now trading well above their long term historical averages.  This in turn drove the ASX All Ordinaries Index to a bull market high in 2007 and has helped put some support under the market ever since.  But is it realistic to expect high commodities prices will keep propping up the Australian stock market?

The stock market rout has paused, but will it return?

August 14th, 2011 · 23 Comments

This week was quite a ride for stock market investors with the ASX All Ords and ASX 200 both trading at one stage under 4000 points.  However as the week progressed the markets started to claw their way back up and things are not quite as worrying as they were a few days ago.  What investors will be trying to work out now is if the stock market rout is over, or is it just having a rest before it once again sends stocks falling?

When might the ASX All Ords pass the last bull market high?

July 25th, 2011 · 24 Comments

The Australian stock market is still a long way below the last market high reached in 2007 and so I can’t help wondering when we might see the ASX All Ordinaries reach a new market high.  Perhaps it will just be a few years time before the market recovers lost ground, or maybe it’s going to be a long wait before share market investors see stocks once again post gains year after year.

Why is the Australian stock market unable to rally?

May 3rd, 2011 · 4 Comments

Despite the best efforts of many analysts to talk up a stock market rally the Australian share market continues to move sideways with the ASX All Ordinaries and S&P/ASX 200 both unable push clear of the 5000 level.  But should this worry investors or is the market now simply reverting back to the long term trend?  Also what factors might be at play that are preventing a major market rally?

The Australian economy, house prices and economic outlook

April 5th, 2011 · 207 Comments

Back in April last year I suggested that the Australian economy was not quite as robust as most market commentators appeared to think and that it was quite possible for economic conditions to deteriorate quite markedly over the next few years.  So now one year later after I wrote about a possible economic slump in Australia let’s have a look at how events have unfolded since then.

Australian stock market outlook for 2011

January 4th, 2011 · 26 Comments

As another year starts it’s time for me to make another stock market forecast, one which I will probably regret making in just a few months time. Generally speaking, I expect that 2011 is not going to be particularly kind to the Australian economy and therefore my Australian stock market forecast is not going to make market bulls very happy.

Economic indicators, the Australian economy and the stock market

December 15th, 2010 · 16 Comments

As the year has progressed I have noticed that my view of the Australian stock market and economy has become increasingly at odds with most of the mainstream market commentators back in Australia.  Whereas they see reasons to be optimistic and feel the economy is robust, I feel the situation is quite different and believe the Australian economy is dangerously unbalanced and possibly primed for a nasty correction.

Is the Australian economy really booming?

April 5th, 2010 · 57 Comments

According to many major news outlets and financial commentators in Australia, the recent trade data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) is proof  that the Australian economy is “booming”.  The Reserve Bank also seems to think the nation is in the midst of a boom and the amazing Ken Henry (of where is my tax report fame) reckons Australia will enjoy a “golden age” for decades.

Can Australian home prices keep rising?

February 1st, 2010 · 914 Comments

Back in the 2008/2009 when home prices in parts of Europe and the United States were tumbling there were plenty of “experts” saying Australian house prices would also come crashing down. But alas the residential property market remained fairly robust during the global financial crisis and the experts who predicted a crash in property prices were wrong.

Shareswatch Australia Blog: hits & misses of 2009

January 8th, 2010 · 2 Comments

It is time once again to put my ramblings, rants and ruminations for the previous 12 months under the spotlight. Did I correctly spot any stock market or economic trends or should I be standing in the corner with the dunce cap on for most of 2010?

Australian stock market outlook for 2010.

December 27th, 2009 · 36 Comments

As the end of the year approaches it is time once again to contemplate how stocks may perform over the next 12 months. There are plenty of views around of course that range from the super bearish (i.e. there will be another stock market crash) to super bullish, (i.e. markets will surge to dizzying new heights) but I will steer clear of both extremes. So at the risk of being very wrong, very soon, let me now underwhelm you with my outlook for the Australian share market in 2010.

Exports down, imports up and an economy sliding backwards.

December 9th, 2009 · 9 Comments

Some time ago I wrote that we would better served by having a Hobbit look after the Australian economy than the RBA, Treasury & Government and recent events have made this idea look particularly attractive. For at present we have the RBA raising rates, the Government spending and the Treasury appears to be unsure what is happening.

Trying to take in the big picture global economic view.

November 17th, 2009 · 4 Comments

When it is hard to make sense of what is going on with the global economy I feel it is often best to try and remove the noise created by endless stock market reports, economic surveys, financial forecasts etc. and try and focus on facts not fiction. It also helps to put aside people’s opinions (including our own), relax and calmly assess what the data is really telling us, as opposed to trying to use this data to predict the future.

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