Shareswatch Australia

Australian stock market investing, ASX charts, analysis & market forecasts.

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Entries Categorised as 'Forecasts'

Australian stock market outlook and forecast for Q4 2012

October 1st, 2012 · 22 Comments

As we enter the last quarter of trading for 2012 we are confronted by a market which appears to be trending upwards since bottoming out in June on one hand, and a gloomy outlook for the global economy on the other. Surprisingly if we have another good few months the ASX All Ordinaries Index could be up near 5000 by the end of the year which just a few months ago, appeared very unlikely.

ASX All Ordinaries Index Charts & Trends – August 2012

August 19th, 2012 · 36 Comments

Now that the Australian stock market has staged a very modest rally over the last few weeks an assortment of finance writers, brokers & market watchers will begin to speculate if this rally is the start of something big.  Indeed if we focus on the short term the market has done fairly well over the last few weeks, however the longer term trend suggests that the Australian stock market is still stuck in a rut.

Where is the Australian Economy heading in 2012?

February 3rd, 2012 · 19 Comments

It wasn’t that long ago when ex-Treasury Head Ken Henry talked about the Australian economy being in a ‘Golden Age’. I guess when you can retire on a lucrative public service pension and then parachute into a highly paid job as an advisor to the Prime Minister the future does probably seem bright. But now in early 2012 as unemployment appears set to rise and the economy is showing signs of weakness, Ken Henry’s ‘Golden Age’ comment might end up in the same category as Tim Flannery’s ‘Dams will no longer fill’ prediction.

Are Australian stocks set to ride another bull market?

January 27th, 2012 · 23 Comments

Recently the markets appear to have settled somewhat and the Australian stock market has steadily been heading higher so far in 2012. Could we be seeing the early signs of another bull market taking hold or are we about to see another sharp correction take the ASX All Ordinaries back down towards 4000 and perhaps lower?

Gold Price Trend Forecast for 1st Quarter of 2012

January 18th, 2012 · 5 Comments

Over the past five months gold has fallen sharply and is no longer headline news which it once dominated back in 2011 when it was making new highs every day. The shiny metal has been under pressure because traders and investors started to pull some money off the table to lock in gains.

Australian stock market outlook & forecast for 2012

January 8th, 2012 · 60 Comments

The ASX All Ordinaries Index and S&P/ASX 200 Index finished much lower than I expected in 2011, so this makes me somewhat reluctant to go on record and make an Australian stock market forecast for 2012. However the process of looking at the various economic data and trying to guess where the market will end is a useful one, so foolishly I will outline once again my Australian stock market forecast for the year ahead.

Oil Prices, the Baltic Dry Index, Stock Markets & Gold.

December 7th, 2011 · 34 Comments

The interest rate cut yesterday by the Reserve Bank of Australia suggests that finally the RBA understands that the Chinese economy will not keep expanding at a rapid rate while its major trading partners are struggling. But even if the Chinese economy slows more than most economists expect this is unlikely to send the global economy back into a GFC-like slump.

Are Gold & U.S. Stocks About to Repeat the 2010 Bottom?

October 17th, 2011 · 3 Comments

In May of 2010, immediately following the flash crash many investors started to become bearish (nervous) regarding their position in gold and equities. Once the general public became aware that the stock market could fall 10% in a matter of minutes, investors became very cautious. Suddenly protecting their capital and current positions was at the forefront of their investment process.

The ASX All Ordinaries and the Commodities Bubble.

October 5th, 2011 · 8 Comments

Prices for hard commodities such as copper, iron ore & coal have risen strongly over the past decade and are now trading well above their long term historical averages.  This in turn drove the ASX All Ordinaries Index to a bull market high in 2007 and has helped put some support under the market ever since.  But is it realistic to expect high commodities prices will keep propping up the Australian stock market?

The stock market rout has paused, but will it return?

August 14th, 2011 · 23 Comments

This week was quite a ride for stock market investors with the ASX All Ords and ASX 200 both trading at one stage under 4000 points.  However as the week progressed the markets started to claw their way back up and things are not quite as worrying as they were a few days ago.  What investors will be trying to work out now is if the stock market rout is over, or is it just having a rest before it once again sends stocks falling?

When might the ASX All Ords pass the last bull market high?

July 25th, 2011 · 24 Comments

The Australian stock market is still a long way below the last market high reached in 2007 and so I can’t help wondering when we might see the ASX All Ordinaries reach a new market high.  Perhaps it will just be a few years time before the market recovers lost ground, or maybe it’s going to be a long wait before share market investors see stocks once again post gains year after year.

Why is the Australian stock market unable to rally?

May 3rd, 2011 · 4 Comments

Despite the best efforts of many analysts to talk up a stock market rally the Australian share market continues to move sideways with the ASX All Ordinaries and S&P/ASX 200 both unable push clear of the 5000 level.  But should this worry investors or is the market now simply reverting back to the long term trend?  Also what factors might be at play that are preventing a major market rally?

The Australian economy, house prices and economic outlook

April 5th, 2011 · 207 Comments

Back in April last year I suggested that the Australian economy was not quite as robust as most market commentators appeared to think and that it was quite possible for economic conditions to deteriorate quite markedly over the next few years.  So now one year later after I wrote about a possible economic slump in Australia let’s have a look at how events have unfolded since then.

Australian stock market outlook for 2011

January 4th, 2011 · 26 Comments

As another year starts it’s time for me to make another stock market forecast, one which I will probably regret making in just a few months time. Generally speaking, I expect that 2011 is not going to be particularly kind to the Australian economy and therefore my Australian stock market forecast is not going to make market bulls very happy.

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