When it is hard to make sense of what is going on with the global economy I feel it is often best to try and remove the noise created by endless stock market reports, economic surveys, financial forecasts etc. and try and focus on facts not fiction. It also helps to put aside people’s opinions (including our own), relax and calmly assess what the data is really telling us, as opposed to trying to use this data to predict the future.
Entries Categorised as 'Forecasts'
November 17th, 2009 · 4 Comments
September 23rd, 2009 · 83 Comments
One year has now passed since the failure of Lehman Brothers sent global financial markets plunging and only recently has it felt that the global economy may finally be entering a period of recovery. But will conditions be better or worse in 12 months? Will house prices be higher or lower and where will Australian stocks be in September 2010?
September 8th, 2009 · 3 Comments
According to many reports in the media Australia has escaped a technical recession and the nations future is so bright that we will all have to wear shades. But despite the somewhat upbeat business and financial news of late the reality is that the next few years are going to be very challenging for Australian companies.
August 24th, 2009 · 16 Comments
After the strong stock market rally today I think we can safely say the bear market of 2008-2009 is now well and truly over. The ASX All Ordinaries & ASX 200 are still clearly trending upwards and commentators who were predicting a Global Depression just a few months ago have started adjusting their forecasts.
July 29th, 2009 · 6 Comments
The world’s major stock markets have all enjoyed fairly strong rallies over the last week or so and in Australian the ASX All Ordinaries has run up around 30% since March. But there is a sense of unease amongst investors because there are still plenty of economic indicators that suggest the global economy still faces challenges. That is because we have entered what I call the Economic Twilight Zone!
February 19th, 2009 · 6 Comments
So far in 2009 the Australian stock market has basically moved sideways with little movement that would suggest that the 4000 level will soon be breached. However this might actually be a positive sign and could signal that finally a bottom in the stock market is forming.
January 28th, 2009 · No Comments
There is no doubt that the Japanese economy is suffering as a result of the global economic crisis. However much of the reporting in the western media is at best poor journalism and at worst, simply wrong. So rather than focus on sensational attention grabbing headlines, let’s look at some forecasts and facts.
January 6th, 2009 · 3 Comments
There is something you should have noticed by now about most of the finance and stock market related news websites and that is; they are great at picking the best and worst investment events of the past, but they say very little about how accurate their analysis of events were throughout the year.
December 20th, 2008 · 2 Comments
Like most stock market investors I will end the year well and truly bruised. Although I wrote earlier in the year that 2008 would not be a good for Australian shares, I have to admit I did not think it was going to be this bad. Therefore I am hesitant to make any comments regarding the Australian stock market in 2009 as I am sure to find little turns out as I expect. However just as Nigel Tufnel was able to rise above substandard catering on the Spinal Tap Tour, I am going to rise above the current carnage and outline what I think will happen as next year unfolds.
December 16th, 2008 · 7 Comments
It seems that almost everyday we hear about another government plan aimed to stimulate the economy. Finally it seems the government has stopped blaming the previous government for inflation (and a large budget surplus) and is now blaming the world for the slow down in the Australian economy.
December 11th, 2008 · 5 Comments
Although Kevin Rudd stated some weeks ago that Australia would not slide into a recession it seems another one of his forecasts has exposed just what an economic dunce he is. Possibly only Wayne Swan can make worse assessments regarding the state of the Australian economy with Glen “I raised rates too far” Stevens (the Reserve Bank Governor) finishing of a trio of people who are best ignored. As I wrote a while back…we would be better served by getting a hobbit and wizard into the government economic team as soon as possible. (see The RBA,Swan and a Hobbit)
November 7th, 2008 · No Comments
It seems that 2009 is going to be one those years where economists, politicians and investors etc. will find out just how inaccurate most economic forecasts really are. In the good years if growth estimates for the economy are off the mark nobody seems too stressed, but when economic conditions deteriorate people tend to get more concerned about forecasts.
September 21st, 2008 · No Comments
This year there has been a lot of discussion regarding the role short selling has had in causing turmoil in the stocks markets and there are now actions under way in the many of the world’s stock to curb temporarily curb this practice. But if short selling has been causing problems in the markets, why not ban it completely? Is there anything good about short selling?
September 1st, 2008 · No Comments
Sometimes you can learn a lot about how the stock market is reacting to events by just looking at the 52 week stock price highs and lows for a range of companies spread in a few different sectors. Normally in addition to looking at stocks I hold, I also look at the prices of stocks I am interested in and also add a few random picks as well just to get a good spread of companies.
July 4th, 2008 · No Comments
Back in March this year, I tentatively outlined my market forecast for 2008 based on a number of assumptions as contained in my blog: Are we near the bottom. Since I am the first to admit that forecasts are rarely 100% (or even 80%) correct it would seem now is a prudent time to review my assumptions and update my forecast to cover the last 6 months of this year and a little into CY2009 as well.