Shareswatch Australia

Australian stock market investing, ASX charts, analysis & market forecasts.

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Entries Categorised as 'Forecasts'

Economic indicators, the Australian economy and the stock market

December 15th, 2010 · 16 Comments

As the year has progressed I have noticed that my view of the Australian stock market and economy has become increasingly at odds with most of the mainstream market commentators back in Australia.  Whereas they see reasons to be optimistic and feel the economy is robust, I feel the situation is quite different and believe the Australian economy is dangerously unbalanced and possibly primed for a nasty correction.

Is the Australian economy really booming?

April 5th, 2010 · 57 Comments

According to many major news outlets and financial commentators in Australia, the recent trade data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) is proof  that the Australian economy is “booming”.  The Reserve Bank also seems to think the nation is in the midst of a boom and the amazing Ken Henry (of where is my tax report fame) reckons Australia will enjoy a “golden age” for decades.

Can Australian home prices keep rising?

February 1st, 2010 · 914 Comments

Back in the 2008/2009 when home prices in parts of Europe and the United States were tumbling there were plenty of “experts” saying Australian house prices would also come crashing down. But alas the residential property market remained fairly robust during the global financial crisis and the experts who predicted a crash in property prices were wrong.

Shareswatch Australia Blog: hits & misses of 2009

January 8th, 2010 · 2 Comments

It is time once again to put my ramblings, rants and ruminations for the previous 12 months under the spotlight. Did I correctly spot any stock market or economic trends or should I be standing in the corner with the dunce cap on for most of 2010?

Australian stock market outlook for 2010.

December 27th, 2009 · 36 Comments

As the end of the year approaches it is time once again to contemplate how stocks may perform over the next 12 months. There are plenty of views around of course that range from the super bearish (i.e. there will be another stock market crash) to super bullish, (i.e. markets will surge to dizzying new heights) but I will steer clear of both extremes. So at the risk of being very wrong, very soon, let me now underwhelm you with my outlook for the Australian share market in 2010.

Exports down, imports up and an economy sliding backwards.

December 9th, 2009 · 9 Comments

Some time ago I wrote that we would better served by having a Hobbit look after the Australian economy than the RBA, Treasury & Government and recent events have made this idea look particularly attractive. For at present we have the RBA raising rates, the Government spending and the Treasury appears to be unsure what is happening.

Trying to take in the big picture global economic view.

November 17th, 2009 · 4 Comments

When it is hard to make sense of what is going on with the global economy I feel it is often best to try and remove the noise created by endless stock market reports, economic surveys, financial forecasts etc. and try and focus on facts not fiction. It also helps to put aside people’s opinions (including our own), relax and calmly assess what the data is really telling us, as opposed to trying to use this data to predict the future.

Australian stocks, house prices and the economy in September 2010

September 23rd, 2009 · 83 Comments

One year has now passed since the failure of Lehman Brothers sent global financial markets plunging and only recently has it felt that the global economy may finally be entering a period of recovery. But will conditions be better or worse in 12 months? Will house prices be higher or lower and where will Australian stocks be in September 2010?

Tough times ahead for Australian economy & businesses.

September 8th, 2009 · 3 Comments

According to many reports in the media Australia has escaped a technical recession and the nations future is so bright that we will all have to wear shades. But despite the somewhat upbeat business and financial news of late the reality is that the next few years are going to be very challenging for Australian companies.

A global economic recovery does not mean business as usual.

August 24th, 2009 · 16 Comments

After the strong stock market rally today I think we can safely say the bear market of 2008-2009 is now well and truly over. The ASX All Ordinaries & ASX 200 are still clearly trending upwards and commentators who were predicting a Global Depression just a few months ago have started adjusting their forecasts.

The Economic Twilight Zone.

July 29th, 2009 · 6 Comments

The world’s major stock markets have all enjoyed fairly strong rallies over the last week or so and in Australian the ASX All Ordinaries has run up around 30% since March. But there is a sense of unease amongst investors because there are still plenty of economic indicators that suggest the global economy still faces challenges.  That is because we have entered what I call the Economic Twilight Zone!

Are Australian stocks poised to rally again?

July 13th, 2009 · No Comments

Since the beginning of May the Australian stock market has basically moved sideways and at present there is no clear trend in place.  Eventually a trend will emerge so the question is:  will the Australian share market rally or move down over the next six months or so.

Has the stock market finally bottomed?

February 19th, 2009 · 6 Comments

So far in 2009 the Australian stock market has basically moved sideways with little movement that would suggest that the 4000 level will soon be breached. However this might actually be a positive sign and could signal that finally a bottom in the stock market is forming.

Outlook for the Japanese economy in 2009.

January 28th, 2009 · No Comments

There is no doubt that the Japanese economy is suffering as a result of the global economic crisis. However much of the reporting in the western media is at best poor journalism and at worst, simply wrong.  So rather than focus on sensational attention grabbing headlines, let’s look at some forecasts and facts.

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