Shareswatch Australia

Australian stock market investing, ASX charts, analysis & market forecasts.

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Entries Categorised as 'Forecasts'

Shareswatch Blog: hits and misses of 2008.

January 6th, 2009 · 3 Comments

There is something you should have noticed by now about most of the finance and stock market related news websites and that is; they are great at picking the best and worst investment events of the past, but they say very little about how accurate their analysis of events were throughout the year.

Australian stock market outlook for 2009.

December 20th, 2008 · 2 Comments

Like most stock market investors I will end the year well and truly bruised.  Although I wrote earlier in the year that 2008 would not be a good for Australian shares, I have to admit I did not think it was going to be this bad. Therefore I am hesitant to make any comments regarding the Australian stock market in 2009 as I am sure to find little turns out as I expect.  However just as Nigel Tufnel was able to rise above substandard catering on the Spinal Tap Tour, I am going to rise above the current carnage and outline what I think will happen as next year unfolds.

Actions to stimulate the economy in 2009 and beyond.

December 16th, 2008 · 7 Comments

It seems that almost everyday we hear about another government plan aimed to stimulate the economy. Finally it seems the government has stopped blaming the previous government for inflation (and a large budget surplus) and is now blaming the world for the slow down in the Australian economy.

Be prepared for the recession we might have avoided.

December 11th, 2008 · 5 Comments

Although Kevin Rudd stated some weeks ago that Australia would not slide into a recession it seems another one of his forecasts has exposed just what an economic dunce he is. Possibly only Wayne Swan can make worse assessments regarding the state of the Australian economy with Glen “I raised rates too far” Stevens (the Reserve Bank Governor) finishing of a trio of people who are best ignored. As I wrote a while back…we would be better served by getting a hobbit and wizard into the government economic team as soon as possible. (see The RBA,Swan and a Hobbit)

Economic forecasts, estimates and models for 2009.

November 7th, 2008 · No Comments

It seems that 2009 is going to be one those years where economists, politicians and investors etc. will find out just how inaccurate most economic forecasts really are. In the good years if growth estimates for the economy are off the mark nobody seems too stressed, but when economic conditions deteriorate people tend to get more concerned about forecasts.

Short selling stocks: the case for and against.

September 21st, 2008 · No Comments

This year there has been a lot of discussion regarding the role short selling has had in causing turmoil in the stocks markets and there are now actions under way in the many of the world’s stock to curb temporarily curb this practice. But if short selling has been causing problems in the markets, why not ban it completely? Is there anything good about short selling?

A quick look at 52 week high and low stock prices. (Part 1)

September 1st, 2008 · No Comments

Sometimes you can learn a lot about how the stock market is reacting to events by just looking at the 52 week stock price highs and lows for a range of companies spread in a few different sectors. Normally in addition to looking at stocks I hold, I also look at the prices of stocks I am interested in and also add a few random picks as well just to get a good spread of companies.

Forecast for 2008: review and update.

July 4th, 2008 · No Comments

Back in March this year, I tentatively outlined my market forecast for 2008 based on a number of assumptions as contained in my blog: Are we near the bottom. Since I am the first to admit that forecasts are rarely 100% (or even 80%) correct it would seem now is a prudent time to review my assumptions and update my forecast to cover the last 6 months of this year and a little into CY2009 as well.

Welcome FY2008/2009?

July 2nd, 2008 · No Comments

Goodbye FY2007/2008 and thanks for nothing. Let’s hope FY2008/2009 will be better and we can all plug some nasty little leaks in our portfolio’s. Being an optimist I believe at some point in the next 12 months we will see equities post some modest gains, although after a horrid June I must admit my cheerful disposition was tested. Thankfully I was able to find my Spinal Tap DVD and this put all my problems in perspective, I was after all only dealing with investment portfolio problems, not a poorly sized Stonehenge stage prop or disputes about an album cover.

Investment Themes for 2009 and beyond.

May 5th, 2008 · No Comments

The current downturn in the world markets presents us with an opportunity to review or develop our investment strategy for the next few years. For some people it may mean a major overhaul such as moving from stocks to real estate, while for other it may mean just a realignment of stocks in a portfolio. In any case, it is a worthwhile exercise to review your investment strategy from time to time even if just to confirm what you actually own.

Where to for the Australian Economy?

February 12th, 2008 · No Comments

Let me first start by saying I think any predictions about the future are best described as forward looking guesstimates. So before reading on, please remember this is just my view and I am not aware of any ability I have to see clearly into the future.

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