Each year I outline how I think the Australian Stock Market might fare bearing in mind that my forecast, like all forecasts, is actually a calculated guesstimate – at best. None of us know with any certainty how the financial markets will ride out the year and it’s probably a safe assumption that anyone that implies that they do is either trying to sell you a book or website subscription. But a forecast can be a useful planning exercise even if it simply makes us think of the factors that might move the markets. So once again I will go out on a limb and add my forecast to the galaxy of other forecasts.
Entries Categorised as 'Investing'
April 3rd, 2017 · 11 Comments
October 31st, 2016 · 30 Comments
Although many commentators in the finance media have found reasons to write excitedly about the Australian stock market during the last two months I have been unable to do so. Yes some ASX listed shares have risen sharply in price and profits have been there for some investors, but overall it’s been a very dull and boring few months apart from a correction that I wrote about at the end of August.
August 31st, 2016 · 24 Comments
The last couple of months have been eventful for the Australian stock market. First, for reasons unknown, it was was moved by the Brexit referendum result and then as the 2016 Australian Federal Election saga slowly unfolded the market really didn’t do much at all, even-though Malcolm Turnbull almost managed to lose all the seats Tony Abbott had won for the coalition parties in the previous election. Despite these events however the S&P/ASX has gained ground and has edged up to around the 5400-5600 range…again.
June 17th, 2016 · No Comments
This “distortion” between “risk” and “return” has created a “bubble” effect in all global equity classes. I informed my subscribers to exit the SPX on November 25th, 2014 and to enter cash. Their equity risk exposure was reduced to zero. Momentum oscillators are now extremely overbought and are very clearly trending bearish. I wait for confirmation before entering any new long SDS and long VXX positions.
August 13th, 2015 · 4 Comments
A take on the global economy and equities markets that paints a simple and clear pictures I think. The DJIA index has recorded seven consecutive down days in a row! These 7 distribution days are a sign that many institutions are taking profits or establishing losses. As we are entering the second half of 2015, financial panic is occurring globally. Currently, this tremendous financial devastation is happening throughout the world. Stock prices are crashing in China, Europe and soon I feel the United States. Puerto Rico has now defaulted on their debts. Quantitative Easing has been masking the symptom of this endemic disease. The Greek Banks are still frozen and will continue to stay this way; however, the mainstream media is not reporting on this current situation in Greece. There is a limit on weekly withdrawals of 420 Euro per (around US $455).
March 17th, 2015 · 16 Comments
So far this year the ASX 200 has been staging a fairly impressive rally having moved from around 5300 points at the start of trading in January to over 5900 in early February. It has since pulled-back a touch but is still up around 10% for the year so there are plenty of reasons to be bullish about the outlook for the market for the rest of the year. However I remain cautious about the outlook for Australian shares and the global economy and maintain my view that a significant correction is not far away.
April 1st, 2014 · No Comments
Stocks have kick started this week with a 0.85% pop in price but the big question is if the market can hold up. Last week stocks repeatedly gap higher and sold off with strong volume telling us that institutions are slowing phasing out of stocks (distribution selling) unloading shares into strength and passing them onto the a average investor to be left holding bag.
December 30th, 2013 · 6 Comments
So far this year (2013) has been a great year for trading and my 2014 forecast looks to be as good if not even better. I do have something exciting to share with you that is going to make 2014 really amazing, but first let me talk about the stock market and what is likely to unfold in the next week or two so you can protect your investments.
June 21st, 2013 · 21 Comments
The markets have had a rough time of late and yesterday the combination of Ben Bernake talking about a slowdown in printing dollars and a weak PMI figure out of China resulted in all major stock markets falling with the Dow Jones slumping by more than -350 points overnight. Ouch!
June 18th, 2013 · 14 Comments
Risk assets and financial markets around the world have been supported by central bank action for several years. Performing financial alchemy on a scale larger than has been seen in the history of mankind, central banks have hijacked global financial markets. Mountains of liquidity, artificially low interest rates, and the creation of future asset bubbles has been their calling card for the past few years.
May 10th, 2013 · 5 Comments
At the moment there is so much confusion across the global markets that is makes me less reluctant to take long term positions. One day we see Chinese trade data which appears good, but there are questions about its reliability. Over in the U.S the economy appears to be improving, but what will happen when the Fed starts to wind back quantitative easing measures? Meanwhile in Japan, Abenomics is shaking up the markets and there is considerable pressure on leaders across the EU to ease up on austerity measures.