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Entries Categorised as 'Opinion'

The ASX All Ordinaries and the Commodities Bubble.

October 5th, 2011 · 8 Comments

Prices for hard commodities such as copper, iron ore & coal have risen strongly over the past decade and are now trading well above their long term historical averages.  This in turn drove the ASX All Ordinaries Index to a bull market high in 2007 and has helped put some support under the market ever since.  But is it realistic to expect high commodities prices will keep propping up the Australian stock market?

The stampede towards global economic pessimism

September 13th, 2011 · 28 Comments

A sure sign that an economic trend has been established is when the OECD finally jumps on the trend bandwagon and recently the OECD has joined the group of recently converted economic pessimists. Gone are the days when big borrowing, big spending governments would save the day – the theme of the day now is hang onto your hats because we might be in for a bumpy ride.

It’s the stupid Australian economy, stupid.

August 24th, 2011 · 19 Comments

Over the last few months media commentary regarding the Australian economy has turned decidedly gloomy. The wonders of the mining boom are now being questioned,  the U.S. and European economies matter again and people are starting to wake up to the reality that an economic strategy that basically relies on China dragging Australia along for the ride might not be that clever.

A stock market rout, investor fear & the global economy

August 5th, 2011 · 69 Comments

As I write today the Australian stock market has slumped around -4% so far after the Dow Jones fell -4.3% and markets in Europe also ended sharply lower. As per usual, many finance journalists are hurriedly pumping out scary stories and dramatic headlines to gain readers attention so it’s time to grab a cup of coffee, relax and focus on the facts.

U.S. Market: Uncertainty & Panic Selling Provide Opportunity

August 1st, 2011 · 9 Comments

Over the past seven trading sessions we have seen stocks plummet in price because of the debt issues in the United States. I think a lot of individuals including myself thought that a bill would have been passed last week and with a plan underway money would flow back into stocks for a relief bounce at minimum. Instead, nothing was passed and that lead to strong selling into Friday’s close.

The Australian stock market slump of 2011

July 15th, 2011 · 4 Comments

At the start of this year I had a somewhat bearish view of how the Australian stock market would perform during 2011 but the slump over the last few months has caught me by surprise.  Even stocks in the mining sector are being dragged down by global economic concerns at the moment and I don’t expect things to improve much this year.

Recession watch and the Reserve Bank of Australia awakens

July 6th, 2011 · 24 Comments

As each week passes the moans of struggling businesses grow louder and finally it appears that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) board members have woken up to the fact that the economy has been sliding backwards since late 2010. Once again the RBA had made a tactical blunder and raised rates too high just as they did as the global financial crisis was unfolding back in late 2007.

The deadly climate change and carbon tax swindle

June 27th, 2011 · 116 Comments

Over the last few years I have watched the debate about global warming descend into a political and celebrity ego-fuelled circus event where hard science plays merely a supporting role. It’s not clear what such measures as a carbon tax will even achieve on a global scale besides generating tax revenues for governments and making plenty of bankers happy. Meanwhile millions of people die from hunger and disease every year and there is no tax being implemented to help them.

The Australian economy, the Twilight Zone and known unknowns

June 20th, 2011 · 14 Comments

On a daily basis, dozens of finance and business journalists try to convince the general public that they somehow have an insight into what the Australian economy is doing or how the economy will fare over the next six months or so. But the truth is, nobody has a clue what will happen for the rest of this year as we are still stuck in the Economic Twilight Zone.

U.S. market update: trading when investors are fearful

June 6th, 2011 · No Comments

Everyone knows people make mistakes when rushed to do something or if they are scared of something bad happening. We also know fear and greed is what moves the market each month, week, day and tick… So when the majority of investors are selling their shares at the same time you must recognize the psychology behind it and prepare for a low risk trading opportunity in the days that follow.

Swan’s lazy 2011 budget and Australian economic madness.

May 16th, 2011 · 6 Comments

On budget night Wayne Swan could have saved us all a lot of time by simply standing up and saying that his plan for the Australian economy was to simply sit back and hope the mining boom continued. As I have said for over a year now, Australian policy makers have set the economy up for a severe downturn if commodities prices slump and there is no Plan B.

Gillard, Rudd, Brown, Wilkie, the nightmare continues

May 7th, 2011 · 13 Comments

For a while I have resisted writing about the political situation in Australia simply because it is too depressing.  Of all the possible political outcomes after the election last year it looks like the Australian people have ended up with the worst case scenario – a leaderless dysfunctional government adrift at a time when major ecomic challenges loom.

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