Back in April last year I suggested that the Australian economy was not quite as robust as most market commentators appeared to think and that it was quite possible for economic conditions to deteriorate quite markedly over the next few years. So now one year later after I wrote about a possible economic slump in Australia let’s have a look at how events have unfolded since then.
Entries Categorised as 'Real Estate'
Are rising Australian home prices good the economy?
February 7th, 2011 · 61 Comments
Often lost in the debate about house and home prices in Australia is the discussion regarding if our national obsession with housing is good or bad for the overall economy. Instead of rejoicing that residential real estate prices in Australia rose during the global financial crisis, maybe we should be looking a little closer at why prices are rising to see what problems this might be causing.
Economic indicators, the Australian economy and the stock market
December 15th, 2010 · 16 Comments
As the year has progressed I have noticed that my view of the Australian stock market and economy has become increasingly at odds with most of the mainstream market commentators back in Australia. Whereas they see reasons to be optimistic and feel the economy is robust, I feel the situation is quite different and believe the Australian economy is dangerously unbalanced and possibly primed for a nasty correction.
The unbalanced economy and household savings
October 23rd, 2010 · 43 Comments
Over the last few weeks most of the financial media have once again managed to draw the wrong conclusions on a range of issues from Australian dollar to the strength of the Australian economy. Talk of the so called two speed economy seems to be back in vogue whereas I believe we should be focused on and worried by, the unbalanced nature of the Australian economy.
Can Australian home prices keep rising?
February 1st, 2010 · 894 Comments
Back in the 2008/2009 when home prices in parts of Europe and the United States were tumbling there were plenty of “experts” saying Australian house prices would also come crashing down. But alas the residential property market remained fairly robust during the global financial crisis and the experts who predicted a crash in property prices were wrong.
Shareswatch Australia Blog: hits & misses of 2009
January 8th, 2010 · 2 Comments
It is time once again to put my ramblings, rants and ruminations for the previous 12 months under the spotlight. Did I correctly spot any stock market or economic trends or should I be standing in the corner with the dunce cap on for most of 2010?
Australian stocks, house prices and the economy in September 2010
September 23rd, 2009 · 83 Comments
One year has now passed since the failure of Lehman Brothers sent global financial markets plunging and only recently has it felt that the global economy may finally be entering a period of recovery. But will conditions be better or worse in 12 months? Will house prices be higher or lower and where will Australian stocks be in September 2010?
The Japanese economy: fragile but improving.
July 7th, 2009 · 4 Comments
It has been hard to write much about the Japanese economy of late simply because the economic data appeared to change every day. But over the last few weeks things do seem to have stabilised and both the government and the private sector in Japan generally agree that the economy probably hit the bottom earlier this year.
Australian home prices, spending trends and statistics.
June 8th, 2009 · 15 Comments
The debate about where Australian home prices are heading appears to be getting more intense these days. Commentators who have been predicting home prices will crash have seized on falls seen so far as proof they are right, whereas those who believe prices will not crash pounce on the same data and says it supports their view. Confusing isn’t it?
Are we in a gold bubble? Could gold prices fall?
April 4th, 2009 · 26 Comments
During an economic crisis many investors head for the safety of gold and there is no doubt that since the global economic crisis began that gold was one of the best places to have your money. But is gold still the place to have your money and is it as safe as some commentators seem to imply? Perhaps gold is now trading at bubble like prices and like many commodities last year, we will see its price correct downwards.
The Australian home prices debate Part 1: Why prices may fall.
March 19th, 2009 · 331 Comments
One of the most discussed economic topics at the moment in Australia is regarding whether real estate prices are about to plunge across the nation or if Australian residential property will generally be spared from the savage price falls seen in the U.S. and the U.K. Rather than take sides in this debate, I will merely outline some of the arguments being tossed around in newspapers, online forums and blogs etc. and see how well they hold up to scrutiny.
Outlook for the Japanese economy in 2009.
January 28th, 2009 · No Comments
There is no doubt that the Japanese economy is suffering as a result of the global economic crisis. However much of the reporting in the western media is at best poor journalism and at worst, simply wrong. So rather than focus on sensational attention grabbing headlines, let’s look at some forecasts and facts.
The inflation genie and the deflation goblin.
January 21st, 2009 · 4 Comments
Well it seems the inflation genie is back in the bottle and that the bottle is back in the cupboard. Therefore our wise leaders in Canberra have in less than 12 months gone from fighting inflation, to trying to stimulate growth and save the Australian economy from recession. Of course none of the economic problems Australia faces today have anything to do with government blunders, it is all China’s fault.
The G-20, bad news and further stock market falls.
November 20th, 2008 · No Comments
Well the market has continued to fall during the past few weeks and now I am starting to wonder if we will even see the bear market reach a bottom this year. You might recall I was counting on the market to rally by now so clearly events have not worked out as I expected. But there are reasons why we have not seen a major sustained rally and I think it is useful to look at some of these reasons in detail.
