I think as far as the Australian stock market is concerned the sell-off is close to being overdone. The ASX 200/All Ords have not raced ahead like the DJIA/S&P 500 so I don’t see why they should follow the U.S market down now. (apart from panic of course)

A slowdown in China and a post-mining boom era is getting priced into the mining stocks (and probably already is) while the rest of the market has been trading in a recession zone for a couple of years now.

So I am sticking with my view that we won’t see the market fall much below 4000 and that we will see gains in the second half of this year.

Well the dollar index has come close to a resistance area for now… although my coal company just drove straight through a major support zone ignoring all wrong way go back signs. DX may do the same on the upside.

So buy some shares maybe 6 months before the next election (it’s pretty much a given they’ll get trashed by the voters) and sell when they do sounds like a reasonably sensible play to me …

Next key support level under 4000 will be 3750/3800

I have been saying for a while that we would get down near 4000 again and we are pretty close to that level now. The next trick is to spot the support level and try and guess where might be a good time to pick up some bargains.

If BHP shares get below $30 that might be tempting. BHP is sitting on a mountain of cash and is still likely to be making plenty of money over the next decade even if the current boom is fizzling out.

“But the money was _there_… where did it GO?!”

We found this article interesting:*

http://www.smartcompany.com.au/superannuation/049678-six-lessons-from-australia-s-richest-self-managed-super-funds.html

* Hopefully not simply because it confirms our own views and strategies… . As I say, here’s another glimpse of ‘how the rest of us rationalise decisions.’

That would be my guess. So I can only expect they are going to trend higher?

Enter ‘pro-nuclear protests in Japan’ and this is what comes up:

http://www.google.com.au/search?client=safari&rls=en&q=pro-nuclear+protests+in+Japan&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&redir_esc=&ei=JnuzT9W9MeuaiQf84YHKCA

Gold is interesting. My feeling is that it has further to fall..much further. Then again I have been a gold bear for a while

Biker -- the Japanese have been buying up LNG assets for a while, long before shutdown of the nuclear reactors and my understanding is that the current deal was in the works even before lasts years disaster. But the good old western media links any energy play in Japan to the nuclear power issue these days.

http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/breaking-news/japan-to-pay-us44bn-for-wa-gas-field/story-e6frg133-1226357768698?from=public_rss

Maybe I will even get another look at Telstra at around $3.20? That could be tempting.

Times like this I am glad of my non leveraged, limited exposure rules.

A friend emailed me this morning saying the next couple of months could be nasty and what am I going to do, I said I am going to sit and hold on what I have got and look to buy in on what I think becomes good value. I doubt any of my holdings will go under and I see no point io cementing paper losses into real ones.