Comments on: Are we facing a peak demand scenario for Australian coal and iron ore? http://www.shareswatch.com.au/blog/commodities/are-we-facing-a-peak-demand-scenario-for-australian-coal-and-iron-ore/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=are-we-facing-a-peak-demand-scenario-for-australian-coal-and-iron-ore Views about the Australian stock market, shares, the economy, investing, politics and world events. Sat, 31 Jul 2010 09:03:34 +0900 http://wordpress.org/?v=abc hourly 1 By: Greg Atkinson http://www.shareswatch.com.au/blog/commodities/are-we-facing-a-peak-demand-scenario-for-australian-coal-and-iron-ore/#comment-4699 Greg Atkinson Sun, 20 Jun 2010 02:21:02 +0000 http://www.shareswatch.com.au/blog/?p=329#comment-4699 Ned as you know, I reckon we don't have a Plan B for the Australian economy. It a resources boom or nothing. As for the population issue, well I don't think it is such a bad thing if the world's population stabilizes or even falls back a touch. We have to get past the 18th century thinking of "populate or perish" and learn to live within our means. The population in Japan will level out at some point and by then I would imagine robots will be providing a lot more labor than they do now. This isn't in the realm of science fiction by the way, they are already around 300,000 or more working robots in Japan now. See: http://www.asahi.com/english/TKY201003260322.html Ned as you know, I reckon we don’t have a Plan B for the Australian economy. It a resources boom or nothing.

As for the population issue, well I don’t think it is such a bad thing if the world’s population stabilizes or even falls back a touch. We have to get past the 18th century thinking of “populate or perish” and learn to live within our means.

The population in Japan will level out at some point and by then I would imagine robots will be providing a lot more labor than they do now. This isn’t in the realm of science fiction by the way, they are already around 300,000 or more working robots in Japan now. See: http://www.asahi.com/english/TKY201003260322.html

]]> By: Ned S http://www.shareswatch.com.au/blog/commodities/are-we-facing-a-peak-demand-scenario-for-australian-coal-and-iron-ore/#comment-4697 Ned S Sat, 19 Jun 2010 11:24:14 +0000 http://www.shareswatch.com.au/blog/?p=329#comment-4697 "LLC, is selling high-quality coking coal to the neighbouring Chinese at $US60 per tonne compared to Australian miners BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto, who are charging more than double the price" - Or as Kev Rudd said to Wayne after they took a quick glance back through the fine print in last month's budget - "What did you say Plan B was again?" :) On another note, the good news in here for Japan (and Germany even), might seem to be that they've taken most of their whack in regard to the following? : http://www.smh.com.au/business/population-fall-poses-immense-new-challenges-20100618-yms8.html “LLC, is selling high-quality coking coal to the neighbouring Chinese at $US60 per tonne compared to Australian miners BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto, who are charging more than double the price” – Or as Kev Rudd said to Wayne after they took a quick glance back through the fine print in last month’s budget – “What did you say Plan B was again?” :)

On another note, the good news in here for Japan (and Germany even), might seem to be that they’ve taken most of their whack in regard to the following? :

http://www.smh.com.au/business/population-fall-poses-immense-new-challenges-20100618-yms8.html

]]> By: Greg Atkinson http://www.shareswatch.com.au/blog/commodities/are-we-facing-a-peak-demand-scenario-for-australian-coal-and-iron-ore/#comment-4695 Greg Atkinson Fri, 18 Jun 2010 23:41:42 +0000 http://www.shareswatch.com.au/blog/?p=329#comment-4695 Well it seems even the Australia media is starting to write about Mongolia. This article in The Australian makes interesting reading: <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/leighton-takes-train-to-mongolias-mining-boom/story-e6frg8zx-1225881543550" rel="nofollow">Leighton takes train to Mongolia's mining boom</a> Of particluar interest to me was this passage: <em>"...the listed Energy Resources LLC, is selling high-quality coking coal to the neighbouring Chinese at $US60 per tonne compared to Australian miners BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto, who are charging more than double the price."</em> I wonder how much per tonne the Treasury reckons Australia will be getting for coking coal during what Ken Henry believes will be a decade long mining boom? Well it seems even the Australia media is starting to write about Mongolia. This article in The Australian makes interesting reading: Leighton takes train to Mongolia’s mining boom

Of particluar interest to me was this passage:

“…the listed Energy Resources LLC, is selling high-quality coking coal to the neighbouring Chinese at $US60 per tonne compared to Australian miners BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto, who are charging more than double the price.”

I wonder how much per tonne the Treasury reckons Australia will be getting for coking coal during what Ken Henry believes will be a decade long mining boom?

]]> By: Biker Pete http://www.shareswatch.com.au/blog/commodities/are-we-facing-a-peak-demand-scenario-for-australian-coal-and-iron-ore/#comment-4480 Biker Pete Thu, 27 May 2010 05:31:24 +0000 http://www.shareswatch.com.au/blog/?p=329#comment-4480 Nor my notes over a year ago re China's worldwide thorium quest. :) DRA has become decidely bullish on China recently. It's quite interesting to note their comments on the massive expansion of rail links in China. Nor my notes over a year ago re China’s worldwide thorium quest.
:)

DRA has become decidely bullish on China recently. It’s quite interesting to note their comments on the massive expansion of rail links in China.

]]> By: Greg Atkinson http://www.shareswatch.com.au/blog/commodities/are-we-facing-a-peak-demand-scenario-for-australian-coal-and-iron-ore/#comment-4479 Greg Atkinson Thu, 27 May 2010 05:24:57 +0000 http://www.shareswatch.com.au/blog/?p=329#comment-4479 Interesting comments from Tim Flannery reported today online at WA Business News: <em>" Prof Flannery also had an alarming prognosis for coal, which is the backbone of Australia's economy but is a heavy-emitting source of energy. The great hope for coal's future - the burying of carbon emissions underground, called carbon capture and storage - is not working, Prof Flannery said. The technology was ready but interest had flagged and large-scale CCS plants were not being built. Prof Flannery said the world had to get rid of conventional coal-fired power stations within 20 years to avoid dangerous warming. This would be big news for Australia, which has massive coal reserves. Three-quarters of the country's electricity comes from coal. Coal is Australia's biggest export item, worth $46 billion in 2008. "</em> Seems my peak demand view might not be crazy after all hey? :) Interesting comments from Tim Flannery reported today online at WA Business News:

” Prof Flannery also had an alarming prognosis for coal, which is the backbone of Australia’s economy but is a heavy-emitting source of energy.

The great hope for coal’s future – the burying of carbon emissions underground, called carbon capture and storage – is not working, Prof Flannery said.

The technology was ready but interest had flagged and large-scale CCS plants were not being built.

Prof Flannery said the world had to get rid of conventional coal-fired power stations within 20 years to avoid dangerous warming.

This would be big news for Australia, which has massive coal reserves.

Three-quarters of the country’s electricity comes from coal. Coal is Australia’s biggest export item, worth $46 billion in 2008. “

Seems my peak demand view might not be crazy after all hey? :)

]]> By: Greg Atkinson http://www.shareswatch.com.au/blog/commodities/are-we-facing-a-peak-demand-scenario-for-australian-coal-and-iron-ore/#comment-2213 Greg Atkinson Thu, 29 Oct 2009 03:24:31 +0000 http://www.shareswatch.com.au/blog/?p=329#comment-2213 Interesting article in The Australian today: <a href="http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,26276429-5005200,00.html" rel="nofollow">China may seek thermal coal elsewhere if Australian export costs rise, says report</a> As I have been saying for a long time, Australia is not the only nation that digs stuff up. Interesting article in The Australian today: China may seek thermal coal elsewhere if Australian export costs rise, says report

As I have been saying for a long time, Australia is not the only nation that digs stuff up.

]]> By: Greg Atkinson http://www.shareswatch.com.au/blog/commodities/are-we-facing-a-peak-demand-scenario-for-australian-coal-and-iron-ore/#comment-1315 Greg Atkinson Sun, 23 Aug 2009 00:15:37 +0000 http://www.shareswatch.com.au/blog/?p=329#comment-1315 What I don't quite get is that Rio, BHP etc are cautious about the outlook for commodities and yet the RBA/Treasury are expecting Australian to bounce back from 2010. It seems the Government is counting a lot on demand from China holding up but maybe the miners can already see weakness in demand? What I don’t quite get is that Rio, BHP etc are cautious about the outlook for commodities and yet the RBA/Treasury are expecting Australian to bounce back from 2010. It seems the Government is counting a lot on demand from China holding up but maybe the miners can already see weakness in demand?

]]> By: Pete http://www.shareswatch.com.au/blog/commodities/are-we-facing-a-peak-demand-scenario-for-australian-coal-and-iron-ore/#comment-944 Pete Mon, 15 Jun 2009 13:06:54 +0000 http://www.shareswatch.com.au/blog/?p=329#comment-944 <blockquote>Where is Australia’s Plan B and I wonder if the Treasury modelled any scenarios where commodities exports remained weak for many years and if so, what impact will this have in terms of future Federal Budgets and in reducing Australia’s debt?</blockquote> There is no Plan B... Although I expect that if we get to that stage, the Gov. will have to start funding itself (printing money). I guess we'll see

Where is Australia’s Plan B and I wonder if the Treasury modelled any scenarios where commodities exports remained weak for many years and if so, what impact will this have in terms of future Federal Budgets and in reducing Australia’s debt?

There is no Plan B…

Although I expect that if we get to that stage, the Gov. will have to start funding itself (printing money). I guess we’ll see

]]> By: Greg Atkinson http://www.shareswatch.com.au/blog/commodities/are-we-facing-a-peak-demand-scenario-for-australian-coal-and-iron-ore/#comment-936 Greg Atkinson Fri, 12 Jun 2009 07:42:21 +0000 http://www.shareswatch.com.au/blog/?p=329#comment-936 Hi Scott. thanks for the feedback. I worry about the sort of forecasts, planning etc. churned out by the Treasury as I would imagine "Group Think" would be the order of the day. I cannot imagine you would have much of a career there if you challenged the consensus view of where the economy was going, or where the Government said the economy was going! Hi Scott. thanks for the feedback. I worry about the sort of forecasts, planning etc. churned out by the Treasury as I would imagine “Group Think” would be the order of the day. I cannot imagine you would have much of a career there if you challenged the consensus view of where the economy was going, or where the Government said the economy was going!

]]> By: Scott http://www.shareswatch.com.au/blog/commodities/are-we-facing-a-peak-demand-scenario-for-australian-coal-and-iron-ore/#comment-935 Scott Fri, 12 Jun 2009 04:07:31 +0000 http://www.shareswatch.com.au/blog/?p=329#comment-935 Great article Greg. This is something that is not often talked about but the potential negative impact would be enormous. I too wonder what goes on within the treasury in terms of analysing our potential medium to long term economic situation. Great article Greg. This is something that is not often talked about but the potential negative impact would be enormous. I too wonder what goes on within the treasury in terms of analysing our potential medium to long term economic situation.

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