Shareswatch Australia

Back in April last year I suggested that the Australian economy was not quite as robust as most market commentators appeared to think and that it was quite possible for economic conditions to deteriorate quite markedly over the next few years.  So now one year later after I wrote about a possible economic slump in Australia let’s have a look at how events have unfolded since then.

Over the past couple months everyone seems to have been preparing for a sharp market correction. Crazy part is that the SP500 dropped about 10% from the high and that is a typical bull market correction. The thing is… the stock market has a way of slowly unfolding making it look and feel minor, then before you know it, the correction is over and it’s back to an uptrend. That is kind of how this one unfolded.

Over the last few weeks the tragic events in Japan and the political unrest in the Middle East have shown just how fragile the Australian stock market is. Investors appear ready to move quickly out of shares and shift funds to less riskier assets when they sense trouble. This suggests to me, that people don’t quite believe that the Australian economy is as robust as many market commentators would have us believe.

Lives for all us living in Japan changed from the moment the first terrifying earthquake hit off the North East coast of Japan on Friday 11th March.  We all live near fault lines and most of us live near the coast as well, therefore as the images of the disaster were shown on television I was simply lost for words – unable to process what I was seeing.

Well today the stock market correction that I mentioned was coming in February has certainly hit and the ASX All Ordinaries Index has fallen below the 5000 level yet again.  Is this latest share market correction something Australian stock market investors should worry about, or is it simply an over-reaction to global events which will have little long term impact on stocks and shares?

With the Standard and Poor’s downgrading of Japan’s long-term credit rating from AA to AA minus, the focus even more is on how the economy can get out of its current deflationary quagmire.

So far 2011 has been an interesting to say the least. Stocks and commodities have been jumping around with high volatility generating mixed trading signals. This choppy price action typically indicates trends are in their late stages. The late stages of a trend is very difficult to trade because volatility rises meaning larger day to day price swings, and at any time the price could either drop like a rock or go parabolic surging higher in value.

The recent announcement by Julia Gillard that she is breaking an election promise and will attempt to bring in a Carbon Tax should come as no surprise to anyone. It is simply a reflection of the madness that is the Greens/Labor Party alliance and another example of a policy developed by a Government hooked on spending and raising taxation.

Now that the ASX All Ordinaries Index has broken through and closed above 5000, more than a few market watchers seem to be quite bullish about the prospects for the Australian stock market.  But will the share market rally from here or will another correction roll along and push it below 5000 yet again?

Fosters Group Limited (ASX:FGL) is a blue-chip ASX-listed Australian beverage company with a wide range of brands covering beer, wine, spirits and ciders.  Over the last few years the company has faced a number of challenges and is now in the process of trying to improve it’s underlying business and deliver better value for shareholders.

The past couple weeks I have been keeping a close eye the price of gold and the gold miners index. I check to see if its pointing to higher or lower prices in the near future using inter-market analysis, price and volume, along with technical analysis. At this time the charts are still pointing to lower prices in the coming days or weeks.

Often lost in the debate about house and home prices in Australia is the discussion regarding if our national obsession with housing is good or bad for the overall economy.  Instead of rejoicing that residential real estate prices in Australia rose during the global financial crisis, maybe we should be looking a little closer at why prices are rising to see what problems this might be causing.

Scenario: Well another choppy day of trading on the Australian stock market after a fall overnight in the U.S. Any hint of bad news sends stocks heading south and investors big and small are a nervous bunch these days. The worst part about times like these is that anyone with a view of where the market is heading seems to get media time and what is even worse is the worn out phrases they use. At some point the market will stabilise, like it always has, and then continue to rise along with the growth of the global economy unless the end of the world really is nigh.

The devastating floods across much of Australia should remind people that Australia has been for a long time, a land of drought and flooding rains. The floods have tragically not only taken lives, but will also have a lasting negative impact on the economy and sadly the Government seems intent on using the floods as an excuse for it’s own poor management of the economy.

First a few personal facts. My involvement with China goes back to the early sixties as a diplomat in Hongkong where I was learning Mandarin. For a while I served as China desk officer in Canberra’s foreign affairs ministry. Then during Cultural Revolution days I finally got to China, by organizing an Australian pingpong team (over Canberra’s opposition).

There is a potentially big setup in precious metals sector along with the dollar which looks like its about to unfold. Since mid-October of last year gold started to show signs of distribution selling. Only a month later in November silver started warning us that some big players were taking some profits off the table also. Distribution selling is easy to spot on the charts. In short you will see heavy volume selling accompanied with strong moves to the downside.