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The Shareswatch Random Stocks Portfolio: November 2013

November 12th, 2013 · Greg Atkinson · 9 Comments

A lot has happened since the last review of the Shareswatch Random Stocks Portfolio in January with the S&P/ASX having risen from just under 4800 to around 5400. That’s a gain of about 12% so it would not be unreasonable to expect the portfolio to have also posted a good gain over the same period.

First a few housekeeping notes. In January the portfolio had around $47,000 in cash so after input from some readers and one random selection, 4 more stocks have been added. The random selection was TEN Network Holdings Limited (ASX:TEN) with the others being National Australia Bank (ASX:NAB), Westfield Group (ASX:WDC) and AWE Ltd (ASX:AWE).

These stocks were added on the 1st March with the purchase price for each new stock being the closing price on that day.

Of the 4 new stocks included in the portfolio only the National Australian Bank has posted a gain with the other new holdings in the red so far.

Overall the value of the portfolio has slipped backwards and is now up 37.72% whereas at the end of January it was up 51.10%.  This means that the Shareswatch Random Stocks Portfolio has actually slipped back by almost the same amount (in percentage terms) as the ASX 200 Index has risen or in other words it has under-performed the S&P/ASX Index by more than 20% since the last update. Ouch!

In terms of details the closing prices for each stock and the total market value as of the 11th November is show below.

Shareswatch Random Portfolio November 2013
The main reasons for the decrease in the value of the portfolio is the write-off of the shares in Gunns Limited and the slide of the resources & mining engineering related stocks Monadelphous Group Limited (ASX:MND) and MacMahon Holdings (ASX:MAH).

Of course the three new stocks added in March that are in the red haven’t helped much either.

Monadelphous Group Limited (ASX:MND) 1 Year Chart

mnd_1_year_chart_nov_2013

On the bight side Challenger Limited (ASX:CGF) has had a good run and is now up 314% and Woolworths (ASX:WOW) has been behaving like a growth stock recently and has risen by around 10% since January. Platinum Investment Management is also on the rise and is now up 57%.

Woolworths Limited (ASX:WOW) 1 Year Stock Price Chart

wow_1_year_chart_nov_2013

Generally speaking the financial & consumer related stocks in the portfolio are up and the industrial & resources related stocks are down. One notable exception to this is Coca-Cola Amatil Limited (ASX:CCL) which has slipped back a touch since January.

So in summary the value of the portfolio has fallen since January, but it is still up by around 37% despite the receivership of Gunns Ltd. and the poor performance of Arrium (ex-Onesteel) and MacMahon Holdings.  Also we need to keep in mind many of the stocks in the portfolio pay out dividends which would easily bring in a $1000 a year or so.

What the next 6 months or so will do to the portfolio is anyone’s guess, so if please feel free to share your views regarding this along with should be done with the $7k in cash.  Maybe it’s time to invest in a speculative higher risk stock or maybe diversify into gold even?

Greg Atkinson is the editor of Shareswatch Australia and the Managing Director of Ohori Capital. He is originally from Australia but currently resides in Japan. He can be followed on twitter via @GregAtkinson_jp


9 responses so far ↓

  • 1 Greg Atkinson // Jan 22, 2016 at 10:37 am

    Interesting to look back at what some the stocks in this portfolio were trading at near the end of 2013. Woolworths (ASX:WOW) was trading around $34 back then and now it’s just under $24!

  • 2 lachlan // Jan 27, 2016 at 7:14 pm

    Monodelphous $6.40
    AWE 56 cents

    Wow, there’s some WOW!

  • 3 lachlan // Jan 30, 2016 at 2:35 pm

    Some interesting things I have noticed…
    The dj certainly looks like it has topped and would like to test support at 14-15000
    The xjo has already sold down by nearly 20% vs approx 10% on the dj
    The dj eclipsed its old long term high by a long way; the xjo was well off getting there.
    While banks stocks could lose ground by a way here the commods have been smashed very hard over a long time.
    There is very bearish sentiment now I have seen myself apart from all the finance blogs repeating the doom self-off meme even people on the street who care little for shares are predicting a great crash.

  • 4 lachlan // Jan 30, 2016 at 2:43 pm

    Well there’s a time to die sometime but maybe the next market event will look somewhat different than the last.
    Greg my guess for a 300 point sell-of in the xjo and aud got someway there before changing tack and now, later, the dj last night had a big move up…it does not look good down the track though considering the big dumps which preceded it.

  • 5 Biker // Jan 31, 2016 at 8:39 am

    Yes, it’s interesting, isn’t it, Lachlan? Must admit I thought I was possibly on track when the Future Fund recently reverted to cash… .

  • 6 Greg Atkinson // Jan 31, 2016 at 9:42 am

    Lachlan I’m not even trying to guess where the market will go over the short term at the moment especially now that the Bank of Japan (BOJ)has stirred things up again. I will however update the Random Portfolio soon since it’s been some years since I focused on it.

  • 7 lachlan // Jan 31, 2016 at 6:55 pm

    ok fellas we live in interesting times and good times for market watching. Will keep an open mind too Greg.
    Biker the cash idea has been catching on just lately i noticed. Even our old mate Bill is in love with USDs now days…the paper ones at least.

  • 8 Biker // Jan 31, 2016 at 9:50 pm

    Lachlan: “..our old mate Bill is in love with USDs now days…”
    That’s why they call him Dollar Bill!~ (Sorry, couldn’t resist.)

    Yes, that BOJ move did stir things up (in the short-term, anyway.) We only _have_ the short term! Our sons reckon long term is the way-to-go… and my wife and I both figure the couple of decades we may have left in the market makes a defensive, short-term call worthwhile.

    In the three weeks or so since we moved from Balanced to Cash, we’ve made pocket money… but saved thousands. And, as Greg suggests, ultimately it’s guesswork. When I venture beyond our preferred asset class it is, anyway!

    Wealth preservation is hard-to-knock, when the economic outlook is so shaky!

  • 9 lachlan // Feb 3, 2016 at 8:25 pm

    Biker that’s completely reasonable…me i’m in my mid 40s and still throwing my hat in the ring trying to grow income and wealth but I certainly look forward to smelling the roses while I travel around later. I know I could come undone though, it’s all so fragile really.
    Solid move down on our market today. I confess to looking for shares to buy of late but naught ventured just yet.

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