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The final paragraph says it all: http://www.watoday.com.au/business/markets/rba-watching-but-not-ready-to-act-on-strong-aussie-dollar-20170717-gxcj85.html [...]
Mon, Jul 17, 2017
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Interesting data points, Lachlan. Thanks! I share Greg's less-optimistic view on the ASX 200. But let's remember that I chose the more conservative, less-optimistic route in (our) last really accumulative phase… playing a truly defensive game this year. We were simply not prepared to risk any major capital. Hope your farm purchase works out for you… . [...]
Fri, Jul 14, 2017
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Well I have been a bit busy recently but we are past the halfway point for 2017 and the ASX 200 is around the 5700 – 5800 level. So the question is will a solid rally form that will send it over 6000 by the end of the year or will it finish around this level or lower? I am sticking with my guesstimate and reckon it will finish lower. [...]
Thu, Jul 13, 2017
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I hope you survive your ordeal Biker. Some data points for US Fed Funds rates Dec 16, 2008 — 0.0–0.25 Dec 16, 2015 — 0.25-0.50 Dec 14, 2016 — 0.50-0.75 Mar 15, 2017 — 0.75-1.00 Jun, 14, 2017 — 1.00-1.25 I'm not predicting anything, except that I'm going to be careful. Anyhow, I'm all cash/PM's now with a handful of shares. What happened to my farm…omg, long story. It might be ok yet. Buying farms is not easy. [...]
Mon, Jul 10, 2017
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Culinary suggestions much appreciated, Lachlan! Living on Nor' West Snapper and Golden Trevally, with Black Bream from nearby rivers thrown onto the barbie for variation. No crabs. Apparently up here they're only caught in months with an R in them… ! Clever crustaceans, these mud crabs… . I'll be surprised if the RBA gambles on an uplift and raises interest rates. However _nothing_ that happens in the US surprises me at all, these daze… . [...]
Mon, Jul 10, 2017
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Well yeah I don't think I'd read too much into it.https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/government-bond-yield This chart stretched out to max shows that tightening idea is fair and that what Edwards is otherwise saying is not so radical. As Pascoe implies, some people will grab the most sensational sounding snippet and run. Edwards however makes a lot of valid arguments concerning elements of causality with debt, currencies, economies etc without committing to big predictions. Assuming current long term trends remaining in tact I would have thought rate changes higher but not quite so many so fast. That's a conditional claim I make. I am not claiming [...]
Thu, Jul 06, 2017
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Tend to agree with Pascoe, Lachlan: http://www.watoday.com.au/business/the-economy/sorry-i-doubt-the-rba-will-be-raising-interest-rates-eight-times-over-the-next-two-years-20170628-gx0tc9.html Towing the boat W-A-y up north right now. Figure we can survive a few weeks on fresh seafood… . 🙂 [...]
Mon, Jul 03, 2017
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Wow Biker, eight hikes. According to the RBA interest rates on mortgages in the six years before 2007 went up over 3%. However two percent in two years is much faster. [...]
Fri, Jun 30, 2017
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Lachlan: “…And Shoes will come here…” Well, it's about time, Lachlan. T(h)is lurking ain't healthy!~ 😉 Apparently we're going to see _eight_ interest rate rises in the next 24 months… . Now THAT might see His resurrection… . [...]
Wed, Jun 28, 2017
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I agree with the view of the author, in Vietnam almost Gold is the source of risk avoidance most [...]
Wed, Jun 28, 2017
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And Shoes will come here and rightfully claim victory, God bless him, ha ha ha [...]
Wed, Jun 28, 2017
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If you look at the sideways pattern of trading just lately (short term) it has broadened and some technical traders would predict a reversal sooner than later. Personally I don't have a heavily backed dog in the fight. I'm just looking for the next point of resistance or support no matter where we are at. And I go with trends. The trend remains bearish for now (near term stuff). Looking further out we are still in a bullish trend however if these support areas fail we may have downside move that will give everyone a run for their money. And [...]
Wed, Jun 28, 2017
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Yes he was on the money. When I jumped on board with the sell-off idea i was looking for a price point which had seen sustained vigorous trading in a previous period as a reversal place. Around 5600 i thought. The move is “probably” not over yet though. Both 5600 and 5500 (approximates) are strong pivot points if we do in fact wash out further. [...]
Wed, Jun 28, 2017
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Greg's May 31st prediction was pretty close, wasn't it? [...]
Tue, Jun 27, 2017
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Hmm, lucky i didn't “infer to heavily”. Goodness, what a faker that reversal was! XJO went below 5680 for a bit there. [...]
Tue, Jun 27, 2017
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Given the time it takes for super funds to process after-tax contributions, Coppleson might just be on-the-money, Lachlan. You may recall my June 6th comment: “We made the June 30th gateway with daze2spare… .” The bounce didn't last long!~ [...]
Thu, Jun 15, 2017
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Oh yeah, citing your article I see now… “It's the first solid leg up in some time for the ASX, which was heavily sold down beginning in May and had a less-than-auspicious start to June.” “Bell Potter senior trader Richard Coppleson attributed the market's robustness to the superannuation changes taking place on July 1, which will place caps on concessional contributions. ” Otherwise on a price technical score it looks like a significant reversal however the trend is choppy and sideways so I shouldn't infer too heavily. [...]
Thu, Jun 15, 2017
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I felt very confident we'd see a 5600 close on the xjo in short term terms and on a daily close basis. It hit 5630 or so intra-day before something went ballistic and kept the closes above 5660. And goodness, now we are at 5833! Oh well. All good. My gold specs are still sad though. They had a blistering run last year but about 80% of the gains were lost since. [...]
Thu, Jun 15, 2017
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