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Biker – 20th May
Australian House Prices and Propery Market Discussion
On cherry-picking:

A year or so ago I commented that the $1000 I’d left in Super a few years back was now worth around $870*.

Some bright spark commented that had I put that thousand bucks into three stocks which had beaten the market, I’d have been much, much better off.

Recent comments here follow the same drift… hindsight being 50/50 vision.

Possibly even less productive are wild punts about immense future gains on penny stocks, particularly if believed by hopefuls who really need a win.

Strange to see what gets deleted here… and what mines are left in the field for the unwary…

* Now worth around $960… 

Matthew – 20th May
Australian House Prices and Propery Market Discussion
Geoff B // May 18, 2013 at 11:58 am

“Those seven companies make up about half the Australian sharemarket”.

Hmmm. I would suggest those 7 companies make up 25% – 30% of the ASX300

Geoff B // May 18, 2013 at 7:37 pm

It wasn’t just Forrest Gump who reckoned Qantas is the best airline of all.

Wasnt that Dustin Hoffman in Rainman?

Geoff B // May 18, 2013 at 7:37 pm

The age of the fleet is the best guide and Qantas has the youngest fleet of all.

You cant do too much flying Geoff! Qantas has one of the oldest fleets going around. They cant retire their 747 or 767 fleets because of delays on other purchases such as the 777. Their 737-800 fleet averages 10 years old. They still run the dinosaur 737-400 with monotonous regularity and that bird in instances is older than me.

Domestically Virgin and Jetstar have a younger fleet. Internationally they are lagging well behing Cathay, Emirates and Singapore Airlines in terms of hard and soft product. They will be the big winner in the Emirates tie up…..
because of Emirates

Geoff B // May 18, 2013 at 7:37 pm

Also Qantas is an ICON and icons cannot be allowed to fail (eg Holden).

Sadly disagree. Emotional attachment and false sense of patriotism is no reason to allow cumbersome, inefficient, non cost competitive businesses to survive. They must evolve with the markets that they compete in and find ways to prosper, or sadly be consigned to the scrap heap. 

Geoff B – 18th May
Australian House Prices and Propery Market Discussion
Matthew,

I have a similar history to you with Qantas except that I first bought them when the Gov’t privatised the company in 1992. Also I couldn’t resist them when they were 95c recently. When you consider that Qantas has a Nett Tangible Asset (NTA) value of $2.40 per share the directors could throw up their hands and close the company down and all would come out ahead.

It wasn’t just Forrest Gump who reckoned Qantas is the best airline of all. Some people judge an airline by the looks of the Hosties, the food, or the ticket price. The age of the fleet is the best guide and Qantas has the youngest fleet of all.
Also Qantas is an ICON and icons cannot be allowed to fail (eg Holden).

You must be thinking “cripes he must be old”. It gets worse. I bought my first block of land in 1971 and sold it in ’74 for twice its price. Now that was a BOOM. 

Biker – 18th May
Australian House Prices and Propery Market Discussion
Now we’re Japan…

Vaguely remember Keen using the same logic!~  

Geoff B – 18th May
Australian House Prices and Propery Market Discussion
Matthew and Dogman,

No cherry picking here. Those seven companies make up about half the Australian sharemarket. Same with the dates. I chose 12 months ago to RIGHT NOW. Every Super fund and private portfolio would or should have these stocks.

I wouldn’t attempt to pick stocks for the next twelve months. Some jockeys tip five different horses in the same race.

I will however predict that the house prices will fall for at least five years using the half a brain that I have left. They tried to predict the bottom in Japan 15 years ago. Even with a mortgage rate of 1% and a bank base rate of about zero the prices have fallen 70% in the last eighteen (18) years.

Due to the large amounts of money spent by rebuilders, extenders, and renovators it will appear that the median price will hardly fall at all. Unfortunately those that buy and then sell five or ten years down the track (without spending heaps in between) will be left scratching their heads. 

Biker – 18th May
Tough times for Gold Prices, Mining Stocks & the ASX 200
Ring any warning bells?

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/05/15/the-desperate-deceptive-measures-penny-stock-scamm.aspx 

Greg Atkinson – 16th May
What could be the next move for the ASX All Ordinaries Index?
I wonder if May will be the month the ASX gets back down to 4800 again? For all the excitement in the mainstream media the ASX all Ords/ASX 200 is moving within a range now that I discussed more than two years ago.

The trick now..will be to work out the range over the next few years. 

Biker – 16th May
A mixed market outlook and long term investing
Harker: “It is going to be a very challenging five years”

And, for every thesis, the antithesis:

http://www.businessday.com.au/breaking-news-business/resources-investment-to-peak-at-85bn-20130516-2jobu.html 

Greg Atkinson – 16th May
Commonwealth Bank and Rio Tinto — a shorter term trading strategy
Well the US market is just plain weird. Good news or bad news the S&P 500/DJIA head up. The European stock markers also seem to rally on the scent of an oily rag as well.

As for the All Ords/ASX 200..well there are plenty of bulls out there but I am not one of them at the moment. 

Biker – 15th May
Tough times for Gold Prices, Mining Stocks & the ASX 200
Nuthin’ changed but the timeframe, then?  

Matthew – 15th May
Australian House Prices and Propery Market Discussion
Not Fooled to say I agree with you would mean that I have lost my ability to read a market, so I am afraid we remain as far apart as the many names you blog under.

How about we make a deal – you say nothing about over pricing of Australian property in any public forum for the next 12 months, I will do the same, and we will meet back here in May 2014 and see who was right.

I mean, anyone with half a brain can see the market has bottomed out and the next move is up, but the world has earned your silence so how about it?

Ball is in your court. 

Frank – 15th May
Australian House Prices and Propery Market Discussion
Not Fooled my comment stands no matter who your rant was aimed at. Do I need to ask it again IN ALL CAPITALS or for once in your life are you going to man up and answer it?

Don’t get all cute and stay silent yes or no 

Stillgotshoeson – 15th May
Commonwealth Bank and Rio Tinto — a shorter term trading strategy
We may hold a little longer and have the September/October jitters come through the market. 

Stillgotshoeson – 15th May
Tough times for Gold Prices, Mining Stocks & the ASX 200
Wow Biker, unususl for you to be posting a link to someone agreeing with what we have been saying all along.

Do you agree with him or disagree?

As for the second past of your post, I have since revised my target price and explained as to why.. if you can not understand the rationale behind that then your OCD, blinkered view on the forums is being highlighted more and more with everyone of your posts.

I will try and explain one more time, just for you, Biker as I know your understanding of shares is limited.

If the review of the company is that it will have a_potential_ capitalisation figure amounting to 33 cents a share and then some time after that company now has twice the number of shares on its book due to an equity raising then naturally the expectation of the figure would also halve.

The expected value of the company into the future has not changed, just that it is divided between more shares.

Shoes, Perth. 

dogman – 15th May
Australian House Prices and Propery Market Discussion
“Geoff B “…..

Great cherry picking on time trame and companies .

Point not taken. 

Biker – 15th May
Tough times for Gold Prices, Mining Stocks & the ASX 200
Resources boom is truly over, says Focus Minerals chair Don Taig | The Australian: http://t.co/1hEnR2HEdt

Don, how can that be? An authority on the very areas you’re mining has commented (30/1/’11):

“I bought more Focus on Friday. With more drilling at the what could be well named “treasure Island” site in the first quarter and my expectations of the gold price to recover lost ground the expected jump to 12 cents could be but months away… One of my research tools/sources gives them an intrinsic value of 33 cents already…” 

Jimbo jones – 15th May
Commonwealth Bank and Rio Tinto — a shorter term trading strategy
Indeed.
The old sell in may go away may prove very correct this year! 

Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype – 15th May
Australian House Prices and Propery Market Discussion
Frank

Look again it was Matthew who was saying timing was everything . I was simply referencing him.

Biker

Still up to your selective quotes out of context I see. I said no such thing what I have said:

“When we bought our current house in Woodvale 2002 it was $225K today after 8 years it is valued at $600K it should be $400K if we were to follow history? The bubble is between 2000 & 2010 the affordability & value of housing has eroded more than at any other time in Australian history. Go back before 1929 (GREAT DEPRESSION) & see what data you get 1910 – 2010 why start at this point. Because it skews the data? I assume I am an idiot because I am negative? So could I draw on your WISDOM to answer the following question: HOW WILL PERTH PROPERTY DOUBLE IN PRICE BY 2020 WITHOUT WAGES GOING UP TO $200K PER FAMILY TO ENABLE BUYERS TO AFFORD A LOAN TO PURCHASE @ THE INFLATED PRICE & HOW WILL EMPLOYERS BE ABLE TO AFFORD TO PAY THESE WAGES WITHOUT LOOSING WORK/SALES TO IMPORTS CAUSING UNEMPLOYMENT TO RISE CAUSING A CRASH IN PROPERTY PRICES. Also History shows Perth property has ALWAYS been between 2.5 – 3.0 Average earnings now it is twice this so is History showing us Perth property is over priced. Dont just look into History to see what you want to see?”

Play fair Biker quote me in context & in full? 

Frank – 15th May
Australian House Prices and Propery Market Discussion
Not Fooled, for a man who claims to be a property insider your lack of property knowledge is astounding.

Care to tell your “followers” how much property will fall from here so they can time their market entry?

After all as you say timing is everything….. 

Greg Atkinson – 15th May
Commonwealth Bank and Rio Tinto — a shorter term trading strategy
Well Jimbo I reckon if the stock market can’t get a decent rally going now then it won’t be heading much higher this year.

At the moment however my CBA and RIO trading plan looks like it is on shaky ground…but it’s still early days.

Looking at the bigger picture, we may be about to enter phase where the AUD falls against the USD and commodity volumes fall as well. That would have a nasty impact on balance of trade numbers and could poke some more holes in the budget. 

Jimbo jones – 15th May
Commonwealth Bank and Rio Tinto — a shorter term trading strategy
Not much has changed recently. Points to note;
1. Us spx still up. Historically we are now in the top 5 of all time equity rally gains in history and one of the longest. Up nearly 150% since march 09.
2. Aussie market still playing catch up on back on falling aud and rates.
3. Commodities currently range bound. Sentiment still very much negative. But no real changes here since a few weeks ago. Diversified miners moving to cost cutting and falling aud will help.
4. Companies with use exposed earnings industrials and resources starting to catch a bid. Banks with Aud earnings less attractive on falling dividend yield in USD.
5. Interestingly some quicker yield rises in us treasuries recently. Pimco says the bond rally finished early this year. Lets watch this. A definite and historical proven catalyst for ending equity rally’s.
6. Aussie bonds saying 1 more cut.

Lets watch and position accordingly. 

Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype – 15th May
Australian House Prices and Propery Market Discussion
Matthew

Finally something we can agree on?

You said “timing is essential”

Well now is not the time to be speculating in Residential Australian Property.

Record low interest rates & FHB are dowmn 50% & Sales at 1996 levels (Yet population has grown 28%) Ouch!!

Think about it 50 year low interest rates FHB should be flooding the market & sales across the board should be soaring.

They are not that ringing in your ears you are choosing to ignore are warning bells.

Mum & Dad property speculators forever the optimists 

Matthew – 14th May
Australian House Prices and Propery Market Discussion
Geoff B, I dont “reckon” property prices have grown at around 8%, that is what factual published data tells us. Some here make up figures to support their agendas, I am not one of them. Yes renovations, larger houses etc are an influence, but as most will tell you the value is largely in the land and thehouse is the depreciating thing you build on it…

As for “Qantas, Telstra, and many other companies have returned, on average, over 50% in the last year to date. Also it is useful to note that none of these public companies required any expenditure by the shareholders to achieve these returns”

True, and that is why timing is essential.

See I am a Qantas shareholder. My initial buy in 2007 was at $5.08 per share. In the past 6 years I have recieved a cumulative $0.71 per share dividend yet not a cent since 2009.

I added shars on the slide and my weighted price is mid $3′s. So YTD QAN may be up 50%, but at todays close of $1.72 I am still massively out of pocket.

At the same time my property investments and owner occupied house in the same period have grown significantly.

As you have done above, you can pick any theoretical line in the sand you want to prove a point, but that does not necessarily make it a point worth making! 

Biker – 14th May
Australian House Prices and Propery Market Discussion
“…the Big Four banks, AMP, Qantas, Telstra, and many other companies have returned, on average, over 50% in the last year…”

It’s easy to cherry-pick, after the fact, Geoff. We can cite even better returns for several of our ‘land wins’.

We’d be more impressed if you could predict (as one shares aficionado here does) a half dozen shares which will return over 50% during the _next_ year.  

Geoff B – 13th May
Australian House Prices and Propery Market Discussion
I find some of the opinions and quotes of historical “facts” on this site quite amusing. The guy called Matthew reckons real estate values rise 8% per annum “historically”. When you consider that property owners near me ( north of Brisbane) have bought old houses, knocked them down, and built much larger houses and have , of course, experienced massive capital gains, then I would expect the median prices to rise in those areas. The only true statistics would be if they compared houses that have not had significant capital expenditure spent on them.
Just out of interest it may be useful to know that the Big Four banks, AMP, Qantas, Telstra, and many other companies have returned, on average, over 50% in the last year to date. Also it is useful to note that none of these public companies required any expenditure by the shareholders to achieve these returns.