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Lachlan, I must admit that: 1.) I do prefer the S, myself; 2.) It's difficult for me to be objective about Teslas; 3.) The Model 3 will be the first in the S3XY range whose cost I can justify. The claimed service interval (a million miles) appeals… . The Model 3 may be the last car I buy, especially if autonomous vehicles are available by 2028, as I expect they will be. Whenever we're in Vancouver (or Victoria, BC's capital) we're stunned by the proliferation of choices they enjoy. Some of our family members have given up car ownership, in preference [...]
Sun, Aug 13, 2017
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In any event, you can't kill a good idea. Nobody truly owns it. Otherwise what I think of Tesla is my subjective viewpoint. [...]
Sun, Aug 13, 2017
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I like the look of the S. They cost a lot in Australia. My son doesn't like the Model 3 interior compared to the predecessors however personally I am interested in the performance of the cars vs combustion engine powered vehicles. Linear acceleration, regenerative breaking to feedback power, less need for braking gear, low maintenance etc. Oil is an issue in my mind. Coal, no worries. There's heaps of it everywhere. Coal combustion causes some pollution however it makes EVs run and plants photosynthesize. And it makes me richer too which of course is the main thing. Admission 1: in the sense [...]
Sat, Aug 12, 2017
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The Dow tells me strongly that we need a correction Greg. I'm not sure how big a correction. Biker I have a testing time happening right now…fear and opportunity always on the landscape. I will write back as soon as I can. [...]
Fri, Aug 11, 2017
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Well, that's a start, Lachlan. We've seen charging stations _all over_ the US… and Canada… even in Walmart's parking lots. America's best wineries now have free charging stations! I'll admit, we've been hooked on Tesla's vehicles, ever since Goldilocks sat behind the wheel of the X in Portland Square last year… . Those falcon-wing doors sealed the deal! The X had towed an immense bullet-shaped trailer (ie., caravan) into that arena. Pretty awesome. Second admission: Since 1984, I've had the same admiration for Apple as Tesla. I've owned dozens of Apple products since then… and currently own around a dozen, now. [...]
Thu, Aug 10, 2017
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https://www.tesla.com/en_AU/findus?redirect=no#/bounds/-0.6911343999999999,166.74291670000002,-51.66332320000001,100.09110720000001,d?search=store,service,supercharger,destination%20charger [...]
Thu, Aug 10, 2017
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Yes, Tesla is certainly one to watch… . We've put off buying a new car, in the expectation / hope that the Model 3 will be here by 2020. We wonder if (m)any other Aussies are doing the same. There's a tipping point* we're approaching, when it will be questionable whether petrol / diesel vehicles are ‘economic', let alone consideration of any environmental issues. Thinking that the lithium triangle (Chile, Argentina and Bolivia) would dominate lithium production, I confess I discounted Aussie players (to my cost!) Since then, a half-dozen players have emerged… . Ah well, my missus gets her new [...]
Mon, Aug 07, 2017
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Lachlan I have an uneasy feeling that the markets are in a similar place to where they were in 2007 and ominously Macquarie Group is once again edging towards $100 a share. All may look okay on the surface but we need to keep in mind that an enormous amount of liquidity has been pumped into the global financial markets and so the chances of risk being correctly priced is quite low. In the US the markets seem to be rallying on auto and it's hard to understand based on fundamentals alone what's driving things upwards. I think Tesla is [...]
Mon, Aug 07, 2017
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All valid points, Lachlan… and a BS event might shake US markets. Wonder how the Dow would react to new leadership… temporarily… and in the long term? Locally, we've experienced a year of record low interest rates now. That used to be a good thing for our family, but having paid off all debt, it's now the reverse. Wouldn't mind rates lifting at all! Meanwhile, rise in ‘values' in our mega-cities has been steady. Wonder how all those property experts rationalise their ‘markets-will-go-sideways' calls? Banks? CBA's recent dramas rewarm that old chestnut: ‘Too big to fail?' Certainly these allegations will fuel [...]
Sun, Aug 06, 2017
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Volatility very very low. That will likely change with a bang one day. Whether it amounts to anything in particular I won't guess. http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/vix/charts “The money to drive these markets higher has been borrowed. While this can continue for quite some time, it is not a solid fundamental factor of stability.” Ten years ago I thought this was highly important. Empirically however we can see that gov debt etc is just one of many factors which may lead to problems and further there is no way to determine just how much debt will be required to cause a certain effect in a [...]
Sun, Aug 06, 2017
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Well just looking around Biker… DX could easily rally if it wanted to, it's still consolidating a big up move. AUDUSD has been flagging weakly upwards for a good while. There are good odds for more turbulence/downside action there sometime in the next year or so. Banks are still loose on rates here. Dow Jones Index is mega extended. Uh oh! XJO is consolidating a down move still. It can easily move up or down without much resistance. Everybody in the world is indebted…nothing unusual there. If they weren't though you'd have to be bullish. However. putting all this together, I'm feeling a wee bit bearish myself. For [...]
Tue, Jul 18, 2017
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The final paragraph says it all: http://www.watoday.com.au/business/markets/rba-watching-but-not-ready-to-act-on-strong-aussie-dollar-20170717-gxcj85.html [...]
Mon, Jul 17, 2017
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Interesting data points, Lachlan. Thanks! I share Greg's less-optimistic view on the ASX 200. But let's remember that I chose the more conservative, less-optimistic route in (our) last really accumulative phase… playing a truly defensive game this year. We were simply not prepared to risk any major capital. Hope your farm purchase works out for you… . [...]
Fri, Jul 14, 2017
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Well I have been a bit busy recently but we are past the halfway point for 2017 and the ASX 200 is around the 5700 – 5800 level. So the question is will a solid rally form that will send it over 6000 by the end of the year or will it finish around this level or lower? I am sticking with my guesstimate and reckon it will finish lower. [...]
Thu, Jul 13, 2017
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I hope you survive your ordeal Biker. Some data points for US Fed Funds rates Dec 16, 2008 — 0.0–0.25 Dec 16, 2015 — 0.25-0.50 Dec 14, 2016 — 0.50-0.75 Mar 15, 2017 — 0.75-1.00 Jun, 14, 2017 — 1.00-1.25 I'm not predicting anything, except that I'm going to be careful. Anyhow, I'm all cash/PM's now with a handful of shares. What happened to my farm…omg, long story. It might be ok yet. Buying farms is not easy. [...]
Mon, Jul 10, 2017
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Culinary suggestions much appreciated, Lachlan! Living on Nor' West Snapper and Golden Trevally, with Black Bream from nearby rivers thrown onto the barbie for variation. No crabs. Apparently up here they're only caught in months with an R in them… ! Clever crustaceans, these mud crabs… . I'll be surprised if the RBA gambles on an uplift and raises interest rates. However _nothing_ that happens in the US surprises me at all, these daze… . [...]
Mon, Jul 10, 2017
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Well yeah I don't think I'd read too much into it.https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/government-bond-yield This chart stretched out to max shows that tightening idea is fair and that what Edwards is otherwise saying is not so radical. As Pascoe implies, some people will grab the most sensational sounding snippet and run. Edwards however makes a lot of valid arguments concerning elements of causality with debt, currencies, economies etc without committing to big predictions. Assuming current long term trends remaining in tact I would have thought rate changes higher but not quite so many so fast. That's a conditional claim I make. I am not claiming [...]
Thu, Jul 06, 2017
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Tend to agree with Pascoe, Lachlan: http://www.watoday.com.au/business/the-economy/sorry-i-doubt-the-rba-will-be-raising-interest-rates-eight-times-over-the-next-two-years-20170628-gx0tc9.html Towing the boat W-A-y up north right now. Figure we can survive a few weeks on fresh seafood… . 🙂 [...]
Mon, Jul 03, 2017
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