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- Plornt – 31st Jul
Australian stock market outlook
Still long haven’t sold but hedged with cost neutral risk collar strategies and defensive currencies. Haven’t put on any futures hedges yet as we still may go alittle higher.
Thinking about 4,700-4,800 on the XAO and 10,700-10,800 on the DJIA and then i’ll probably begin to hedge the whole portfolio out to protect against the possibility of another fall to 10,000 or so in Sept/Oct. If we break these levels then we could go higher.
The bottoming process we just experienced gives a high probability for a lower high (temporarily) followed by a near retest of lows under 10,000ish. I’ve been trying to refine my exits as my entries are good but exits shocking. So far was good on Euro, lets hope it works on this index read.
I’m entertaining the thought of lower lows on the next correction, but still can’t see that happening yet – it would be very rare statistically. But the economy is slowing much more than I anticipated in my modeling.
Not going to be complacent here, takes you a small amount of time to lose it and years to replace it. Cut risk when markets rise meaningfully and increase risk when markets are at statistical lows.
*All posts by this poster is not financial advice or a reccomendation to do something. Can change my mind quickly on any decision I make, given markets always change. Have positions in instruments discussed unless otherwise indicated.
Plornt – 31st Jul
Australian Politics Discussion
Yeah looks like Rudds revenge is in full force. He has every right to be pissed, i’m surprised at how calm he’s been.
Might be a few swings in this poll though if the past is any indication?
Vince L – 31st Jul
Australian Politics Discussion
Well the man that was suppose to be unelectable (Abbott) now seems to have got the Coalition into a winning position. Maybe the removal of Rudd was not such a smart idea after all?
Plornt – 30th Jul
Australian stock market outlook
http://www.consumerindexes.com/commentary_2010_dailygrowthindexvsgdp.png
The consumer metrics chart is getting worse! And to top it off the US GDP figure was below expectations that were already expecting softness.
Going to be a rocky sideways ride through Sept/Oct I suspect.
Shorting the AUD/USD again and unloaded EUR/USD longs.
*All posts by this poster is not financial advice or a reccomendation to do something. Can change my mind quickly on any decision I make, given markets always change. Have positions in instruments discussed unless otherwise indicated.
Biker Pete – 30th Jul
The tax review, health reform and Rudd fatigue.
But Latham is _really_ helping Gillard’s case!~
(With fiends like these, who needs enemas?)
Greg Atkinson – 30th Jul
Australian Politics Discussion
Well the election campaign is starting to become almost interesting and it seems almost possible that Gillard may be voted out of office. Quite amazing when you remember that around 6 months ago Rudd was still Mr. Popular and could do no wrong as far as much of the media was concerned.
If the Coalition wins the election I would expect this to be good for the stock market since the RSPT/MRRT or whatever the Rudd/Gillard new mining tax is called this week will be shelved.
But maybe an ALP victory would be better for stocks? I don’t think so but I am open to suggestions.
Greg Atkinson – 29th Jul
The tax review, health reform and Rudd fatigue.
Well when I wrote this post back in early May few in the media thought that Rudd would lose an election let alone be removed from office by his own side! How quickly things change.
From early 2008 I wrote about how Rudd was all spin and no substance and so for me, the only surprise was how long it took for Rudd’s poll numbers to tumble. Mind you I did not expect him to be stabbed in the back by his own party!
Looks like Rudd was a one hit wonder, just like Gordon Brown in the UK and probably Barack Obama in the U.S.
Plornt – 29th Jul
Australian stock market outlook
We have to be careful here gents. Theres alot of false bottoms occurring across various instruments.
This market is looking dangerous in terms of relative price performance for stocks in the same sector, aswell as ST rallies sucking in intermediate duration trend investors.
Very difficult market. Must always know your VAR, tail risk, risk collars. Capital preservation at all costs.
*All posts by this poster is not financial advice or a reccomendation to do something. Can change my mind quickly on any decision I make, given markets always change. Have positions in instruments discussed unless otherwise indicated.
Biker Pete – 29th Jul
A tall poppy is cut down: Gillard could bloom awhile.
The leak on pensioners’ increases won’t help her case.
I see the Catholics are starting to rally, too!~
Plornt – 29th Jul
Oil, gold, the Dow Jones and the ASX All Ordinaries.
Good analysis Greg.
Greg Atkinson – 29th Jul
Global Economic Outlook
Well the BDI appears to have bottomed out at around 1700 and is now up around 1900. If is keeps heading up and breaks through 2500 then I reckon we will have a nice Q3 rally on our hands across most major markets.
Greg Atkinson – 29th Jul
A tall poppy is cut down: Gillard could bloom awhile.
Well I guess we can safely assume Gillard will be gone if she loses the election. Let’s just hope Swanny never gets anywhere near the top job! 
Biker Pete – 29th Jul
Oil, gold, the Dow Jones and the ASX All Ordinaries.
Interesting insights, Greg. You may right on the money with gold and oil predictions. Hope you’re also right about the ASX, as both our sons are very much committed to indexed funds.
Getting our eldest son’s mail while he’s travelling in Europe.
He has a very hefty tax bill! I must try to figure out what he’s actually doing… and exactly _how_ he’s doing it!!~
Plornt – 29th Jul
Australian stock market outlook
Anyone see the media reports re: BP oil dissipating and they cant find it! Microbial dissipation along the sea floor or something?
Could be a chargeback for BP now that the oil is dissipating. 30 billion is starting to look overstated for liabilities, might be less than 10 billion total, over 10 years? What a rediculous over reaction this was! They probably don’t need to keep selling assets and have enough cash.
*All posts by this poster is not financial advice or a reccomendation to do something. Can change my mind quickly on any decision I make, given markets always change. Have positions in instruments discussed unless otherwise indicated.
Plornt – 29th Jul
Australian stock market outlook
Markets might go sideways to up here. Risk/reward not good from these levels given possible Sept/Oct weakness, so am not selling or buying (longer duration risk/reward still good) but have been increasing hedges substantially.
GBP.AUD looks really good, have backed the truck up and am scaling into EUR.NZD, altho I don’t think the latter has made a bottom yet, so as usual could be too early.
*All posts by this poster is not financial advice or a reccomendation to do something. Can change my mind quickly on any decision I make, given markets always change. Have positions in instruments discussed unless otherwise indicated.
Biker Pete – 27th Jul
Australian stock market outlook
G’day Ned. Here’s the tax info DRA keeps blocking:
Senior Australians Tax Thresholds
The taxable income level above which Australians eligible for the Senior Australians tax offset (SATO) begin to pay tax will increase on 1st July 2009
Eligible single senior Australians will have no tax liability if their rebate income is:-
• < $29,867 for the 2009/10 income tax year
Eligible senior Australian couples will have no tax liability if their rebate income is:-
• < $25,680 in the 2009/11 income tax year
The amount of SATO will be determined by reference to a taxpayer's ‘rebate income'. The SATO entitlement reduces by 12.5 cents for every $1 of rebate income above the following relevant thresholds:-
• Single – $2,230
• Couple (each) – $1,602; and
• Couple (separated by reason of illness) – $2,040
You may already have this info.
Still working on THE LIST. Once I have all the answers I'll post it all…
Plornt – 27th Jul
Australian stock market outlook
“The Investors Intelligence survey, a measure of investment newsletter editors from ChartCraft is basically unchanged once more. This week we have an absolutely equal amount both bearish and bullish (35.6%). For the previous 2 weeks, the bull bear ratio has been hovering around par and this week that continues once again. The last time the bull bear ratio was this low was in July 2009 and April 2009.
AAII
This week the American Association of Individual Investors’ weekly sentiment survey had a decline in optimism. The bulls decreased from 39% to 32% while those expecting higher prices increased from 38% to 45%.”
Switching usernames from “Anon” because there are too many different people using Anon, so it gets confusing.
*All posts by this poster is not financial advice or a reccomendation to do something. Can change my mind quickly on any decision I make, given markets always change. Have positions in instruments discussed unless otherwise indicated.
Anon – 27th Jul
Australian stock market outlook
Sure, i’ll move them now. You might need to delete a couple of posts.
I’ll move my currency chat over to that thread aswell given the pairs affect the global economy.
Q3 rally is possible into August early Sept?…but my technical models saying flat at best during Sept/Oct with strong bias for an 8-10% correction during that period. Might be a 4Q rally past 5,000? Either way its highly probable for a big rally sometime in the second half, given historical returns comming out of ~50% crashes; since the early 1900s.
*All posts by this poster is not financial advice or a reccomendation to do something. Can change my mind quickly on any decision I make, given markets always change. Have positions in instruments discussed unless otherwise indicated.
Anon – 27th Jul
Global Economic Outlook
Good bullish leading indicator from mutual funds; retailers still doubting the rise which is bullish signal aswell:
“Mutual funds, pensions and endowments are spending more on stocks than at any time since the start of the bull market, just as individuals grow the most pessimistic in a year.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-25/stock-buying-hits-bull-market-high-at-institutions-as-individuals-retreat.html
Mutual fund bullishness is usually only a contrarian indicator at market extremes, the crowd is usually right in the meat of the rally.
*All posts by this poster is not financial advice or a reccomendation to do something. Can change my mind quickly on any decision I make, given markets always change. Have positions in instruments discussed unless otherwise indicated.
Anon – 27th Jul
Global Economic Outlook
T2 Partners quarterly
http://www.valueinvestingcongress.com/landing/n10/downloads/T2-Partners-AB-InBev-BP-Microsoft.pdf
Talks about market direction, whether we are in a bear or bull market, or both. Dont agree with their range bound thesis, at least for the next several months into next year. High probability to break out of the range and new highs, albeit we might slip back into the range (after Feb 2011?) on a longer duration.
Page 41 onwards shows why BP is undervalued and the media have completely overblown the potential damages. I partially fell for the media hype by selling my position at near breakeven, but quickly realised my mistake, bght calls, and then loaded common on the last pullback @ 35$. Wont be making the same mistake twice! If you are going to make a mistake, thats life; but you better recognize it quickly, even if you are unaware you better become aware, or life will force you to!
*All posts by this poster is not financial advice or a reccomendation to do something. Can change my mind quickly on any decision I make, given markets always change. Have positions in instruments discussed unless otherwise indicated.
Greg Atkinson – 27th Jul
Australian stock market outlook
Anon…I think you could probably post some of these comments here? Global Economic Outlook
Anyway regarding the Australian stock market, we might be in for a nice Q3 rally back up to 5000?
Anon – 27th Jul
Australian stock market outlook
T2 Partners quarterly
http://www.valueinvestingcongress.com/landing/n10/downloads/T2-Partners-AB-InBev-BP-Microsoft.pdf
Talks about market direction, whether we are in a bear or bull market, or both. Dont agree with their range bound thesis, at least for the next several months into next year. High probability to break out of the range and new highs, albeit we might slip back into the range (after Feb 2011?) on a longer duration.
Page 41 onwards shows why BP is undervalued and the media have completely overblown the potential damages. I partially fell for the media hype by selling my position at near breakeven, but quickly realised my mistake, bght calls, and then loaded common on the last pullback @ 35$. Wont be making the same mistake twice! If you are going to make a mistake, thats life; but you better recognize it quickly, even if you are unaware you better become aware, or life will force you to!
*All posts by this poster is not financial advice or a reccomendation to do something. Can change my mind quickly on any decision I make, given markets always change. Have positions in instruments discussed unless otherwise indicated.
Anon – 27th Jul
Australian stock market outlook
Good bullish leading indicator from mutual funds; retailers still doubting the rise which is bullish signal aswell:
“Mutual funds, pensions and endowments are spending more on stocks than at any time since the start of the bull market, just as individuals grow the most pessimistic in a year.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-25/stock-buying-hits-bull-market-high-at-institutions-as-individuals-retreat.html
Mutual fund bullishness is usually only a contrarian indicator at market extremes, the crowd is usually right in the meat of the rally.
*All posts by this poster is not financial advice or a reccomendation to do something. Can change my mind quickly on any decision I make, given markets always change. Have positions in instruments discussed unless otherwise indicated.
Biker – 26th Jul
Farewell Rudd, Gillard takes power and the palace coup.
Have to agree, Anon. Having just watched Kerry O’Brien mop the floor with Abbott, I actually felt a little _sorry_ for Tony.
First time in _years_ I’ve actually thought of donating blood…
Vince L – 26th Jul
A tall poppy is cut down: Gillard could bloom awhile.
I wonder how long Gillard will last if she wins the upcoming election? She seems to be someone who the public could quickly turn on, even quicker than they turned on Rudd!
