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Greg: “At some point I reckon we are going to have one of those nasty reality adjustments and the ASX 200/All Ords might go under 5000 again.” Very likely. Feels like the Cuban Missile Crisis all over again… . In that possible BS event, who could predict what markets might do? [...]
Tue, Apr 18, 2017
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Well, some random Trumplosions in the ME and no market reaction. As you'd expect. This seppo cruise to Norkland might end badly though. Australia's nice in Winter Greg. Come and see the wattle blossoms. [...]
Tue, Apr 18, 2017
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That all seems reasonable Lachlan. For me something just doesn't seem right with a global economy that had a debt crisis then go back to growth after a short recession by getting into more debt. The Australian economy now seems hooked on debt and the RBA is making things worse by keep rates low. This has sent investors towards the housing market and I dount many people are doing well from relying on cash in the bank. At some point I reckon we are going to have one of those nasty reality adjustments and the ASX 200/All Ords might go [...]
Tue, Apr 18, 2017
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Well its a bad time to be too sure Greg. However I can play with ideas. Your chart is a good for focussing on longer terms. Lets make an a priori assumption that the current trend will hold for another two plus years, just for arguments sake. As we can see there was the precipitous GFC decline followed by upward sloping, gentle flagging action…what we refer to as the post-GFC rally. If this assumption holds then maybe the action will see a return to the old pre-GFC high by about mid 2019. How exciting eh! If that were the case [...]
Fri, Apr 14, 2017
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Well both the All Ords and ASX 200 are both very close to 6,000 so things could interesting soon. Is 6,000 going to trigger some profit taking or is it onwards and upwards towards 6,500? [...]
Tue, Apr 11, 2017
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Lachlan: “I feel uncertain to be honest.” I don't think there's ever been any time in the last decade in which this sentiment was more appropriate… , Nor can I remember any other period since the GFC when more black swans appeared madly honking on the globes's horizon… a unlikely geographic analogy, I admit. 😉 [...]
Fri, Apr 07, 2017
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Otherwise I believe that there is ample room for a rally or a decent sell-off there since things are around middling on the trend line. I guess we need to resort to other fundamental factors then to decide which way is most likely. I feel uncertain to be honest. [...]
Thu, Apr 06, 2017
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Glad you posted that long term chart and trend line Greg which adds to the data you published in the same vein some years back. I think we all rely or should rely on long term trends for reassurance. I know its little comfort for those who want to sell their shares or draw income (dividends) in a near term time frame however the long term charts should help those who are ceaselessly concerned with 70-90% crashes to understand the persistent reality of inflation. And more importantly to see the necessity of long term thinking, to buy quality assets on [...]
Thu, Apr 06, 2017
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I'm no oil bear either Greg for the same reasons. In fact my oilers have been cause for more joy than other shares I own for some time. However there is some decent overhead resistance in oil a dollar higher from here. So some medium term weakness may eventuate if oil fails it's test there and if the xjo takes a pullback as you describe in your next article then a correlation may be destined there with oil prices. [...]
Thu, Apr 06, 2017
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Greg, you've pretty much summed up our own perceptions. Where you've ‘gone beyond' is actually putting a likely figure on the end position. I was _well_ off this year. I figured the ASX would do very little. Fortunately, selecting international shares as an asset class saved our bacon… . I'd have done much better had I moved _more_ of our TTRs from cash to ASX or international shares. Playing a defensive game, at this late stage of the accumulative phase, meant we lost nothing, but had we gambled on the resources recovery, we'd have a much bigger piggybank! 🙂 [...]
Wed, Apr 05, 2017
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Geoff there are some years when the stock markets post gains and some years it doesn't. But even if the ASX 200 does not post a gain a well balanced shares portfolio should provide a return in dividends of around 4% with some franking credits – so that's not too bad considering what you can earn from having money in the bank. [...]
Tue, Apr 04, 2017
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Wow. “Finishing 2017 at around 5700.” Pretty depressing. Should we give up the share market and buy an investment property? [...]
Tue, Apr 04, 2017
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We'll be most interested to read your views, Greg. We've made money on international shares, but the ASX200 is still an unknown beast I / we can't predict: https://www.ig.com/au/view-ig/2017/03/29/at-what-level-does-the-asx-200-become–very-expensive—37478 [...]
Thu, Mar 30, 2017
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I'm not bearish regarding oil over the longer term Lachlan because the world just can't get enough of that stuff but I am turning bearish regarding the Australian stock market. Soon I will finally get my forecast out for this year and it's not going to be a bullish call. [...]
Wed, Mar 29, 2017
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Mike Nahan was pretty sour on Barnett, too, Lachlan… and has just today taken up the reins as opposition leader. Nahan has blamed Barnett for the Libs' crushing defeat, but there were multiple reasons they were blown away. My contention that “…the mining lobby's attacks on Grylls appear to have backfired bigtime…” was incorrect. Grylls was beaten, albeit by a few hundred votes. Mine dew, he had upset all the chalkies by raising their government housing rent a few weeks before. A pity, as he was the best pollie rural and regional Australia had ever seen… [...]
Tue, Mar 21, 2017
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Ha ha, with that serious look on her face, had to laugh at Pauline's sour milk analogy with regard to Colin Barnett. Otherwise, it can be a virtuous position in politics to have someone attacking you…assuming the mob views you as a decent person. [...]
Sun, Mar 12, 2017
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Oils ain't oils, Lachlan… . 🙂 I'm getting 100 kms+ from a single charge of my eBike. Consensus is these things have improved tenfold technologically in the last two years. We've decided to get rid of one of our two cars, in fact. I'll even sell my older (vintage) motorcycle… !~ Retirees, who no longer need to live where they work, or meet rigid time schedules, are going to adopt this technology in droves. Empty nesters like us can carry a week's shopping in our waterproof panniers and travel long distances in half the time. Meanwhile Labor has won [...]
Sat, Mar 11, 2017
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I'll be pragmatic today Biker. In any event the public-private dichotomy is horribly complicated. I breathed a sigh of relief when I heard about the Trumpfrastructure. Not because I have first hand knowledge of it as you do. I accept that somebody will be calling the shots over the mob. Yet there remains a vast gulf between the wisdom of spending public money in various ways. Infrastructure spending to my mind is a sensible and primary concern no matter how it is brought about. [...]
Sat, Mar 11, 2017
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