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BP – 24th May
Are we facing a peak demand scenario for Australian coal and iron ore?
Twiggy’s view: http://www.perthnow.com.au/business/markets/eurozone-crisis-is-a-beat-up-says-wa-mining-tycoon-andrew-forrest/comments-fn7kjy2l-1226365345566 

BP – 24th May
Are we facing a peak demand scenario for Australian coal and iron ore?
Well, DRA and MMA are still plugging natural gas as the solution; and my understanding is that Japan is increasing their Australian gas imports.

Your mid-2009 comments on Japan’s nuclear future must surely have changed, post-Fukushima, Greg? (I know mine have.)
Was this a turning point for Japan?

Personally, I think there’s more drama happening in Europe than in China… and while I accept that events there will affect China, it’s my view that China will likely ride out a break-up of the EEC, should that happen. We _could_ ask if any such break-up might not actually _benefit_ Chinese export trade(?) 

Greg Atkinson – 24th May
Are we facing a peak demand scenario for Australian coal and iron ore?
According to a report in the Nikkei today it seems the moment of peak demand may be upon us. Quoting from the report:

“Japanese trading houses and major steelmakers are scrambling to develop coking coal supply channels in Africa and Russia, as prices on mainstay shipments from Australia continue to rise in the wake of strikes and flooding there.”

Source: Japanese Firms Aim To Lower Dependance On Aussie Coking Coal 

BP – 23rd May
Gillard’s last stand & Wonky Wayne and the Budget Factory.
Greg: “At least the RBA is awake now. Another rate cut is almost a certainty and more could be on the way.”

Thank heavens for Keynesian economics!
Stimulate us, RBA!~  

Greg Atkinson – 23rd May
Gillard’s last stand & Wonky Wayne and the Budget Factory.
ZombieDawg if the Australian economy is truly booming then one wonders why tax receipts have fallen, why the government needed to raise the debt ceiling and why the ASX All Ords/ASX 200 are back at 2005 levels.

Clearly the mining sector has done well, mainly thanks to China pumping billions into construction to try and keep millions of labourers working. China needs to keep that growth ticking along at around 7% or more just to handle the workers heading into the cities looking for a better life.

But we know that Chinese economy is slowing now, but it ain’t easy getting reliable numbers from a centrally controlled communist run economy. What we do know is that a range of western companies are seeing the slowdown and the fact the Chinese authorities are taking stimulus measures means they are worried about the slowdown also.

Commodities prices have already fallen, the miners are warning of mine closures and projects being put on ice – yet we still have the government talking about a boom. Worst of all they still seem to believe it will never stop.

At least the RBA is awake now. Another rate cut is almost a certainty and more could be on the way.

The Australian economy might be lucky again, but relying on China to support the economy is a big mistake in my opinion and one which I fear will have severe consequences at some point. 

BP – 23rd May
Gillard’s last stand & Wonky Wayne and the Budget Factory.
There, there, Dawg. This should brighten your day:

http://www.perthnow.com.au/business/wa-mining-magnate-gina-rinehart-now-richest-woman-in-world-making-nearly-50m-a-day/story-e6frg2r3-1226364516122 

ZombieDawg – 23rd May
Gillard’s last stand & Wonky Wayne and the Budget Factory.
Groan…
I am just so SICK of these keynesian politicians saying how solid the economy is & how safe we are from the economic woes of the EU and USA.
Same tired easily disproven political rhetoric.
It’s clear they don’t have the slightest clue about the real world as they just don’t live in it !
Retail Australia wide is falling rapidly, with business failures increasing. These ivory-tower pollies need to actually walk around town sometime and talk to real people ! People ARE learning the truth courtesy of people like Gerald Celente and they’re paying down debts and saving for the hard times ahead.
This IS a global economic collapse and Australia is NOT magically safe Mr Swan !
The mining sector is already sliding due to the domino effect of the China/Europe/USA economic disintegration. The Australian economic backbone is decidedly wobbly Mr Swan !
Time to stop lying and pretending “she’ll be right mate” as most people no longer live on Fantasy Island. 

Greg Atkinson – 23rd May
The Shareswatch Random Stocks Portfolio: May 2012
Thanks for the suggestion Leigh. Perhaps $10k could be put into one stock to maintain 10 stocks in the portfolio and $30k left in cash just in case it is needed later? 

Leigh – 22nd May
The Shareswatch Random Stocks Portfolio: May 2012
Greg, To keep it random, select another random stock and put the lot in. You could randomly select four more but that would spoil the original experiment of a ten stock spread and it would be spreading the risk further than the original intention. To invest in the the remaining nine would be reasonable if you applied and equal amount to each, but I say go for it with a replacement stock you might get lucky.
The one thing the experiment has shown is that we only seem to make a quid when there is a take over. 

BP – 21st May
Can Australian home prices keep rising?
One real plus for us has been recognition, by both our sons, that their parents’ _long_ experience in realty is itself a worthwhile asset.

Both our kids are gradually discarding shares, bonds and cash; moving more of their assets into property. Our eldest is still committing the maximum to Super, but has allocated over ten times that amount to property recently. His younger brother already has twice as much in West Australian property.

We’re very ‘comfortable’. Haven’t touched the missus’ Super at all. We just let it accumulate in tax-free cash, with monthly TTR payments. Two more OS trips planned this year.

Hang in there, Ned. We experienced l-o-n-g flat periods back in the eighties, when even friends and rellies departed the scene, to watch us later score unbelievable profits. Could that occur again? Who knows? We don’t need it, but what a party we’d enjoy if _real_ capital gains eventuate?!~  

Ned S – 21st May
Can Australian home prices keep rising?
Yep, much the same as I started out with at the beginning of the GFC Biker. (Or a tad higher as I said?) And while I surely don’t see that as great, I’m reasonably comfortable with it I reckon. 

BP – 21st May
Can Australian home prices keep rising?
Ned: “….my total assets are actually much the same as I started out with — If not a tiny little bit better even?”

Sorry to hear that, Ned. I’m not sure sharemarket experts here have really done any better. Certainly many of us might actually be destitute if we’d followed specific tips provided by those-in-the-know.

As I’ve stated before, property is pretty much all _we_ know.
It’s a relatively slow path to riches, but it has worked for us. 

Ned S – 21st May
Can Australian home prices keep rising?
It’s interesting, but in my own assessment I pretty much ALWAYS seem to be wrong? That said, four years into the GFC (three and a half years of which I was a self funded retiree – plus for 6 months before) my total assets are actually much the same as I started out with – If not a tiny little bit better even?

So maybe the trick for the likes of me is to simply try to avoid being catastrophically wrong. (I don’t entertain high hopes of profiting off any of this stuff.) 

Ned S – 21st May
Can Australian home prices keep rising?
As I’ve said to Shoes in the past Biker, I genuinely think they are overvalued right now.

‘Course, to date you’ve been right on them and I’ve been wrong! …  

Greg Atkinson – 21st May
The Shareswatch Random Stocks Portfolio: May 2012
Okay the options for dealing with the cash in the portfolio are either invest $10k in four new randomly selected stocks or keep the cash. Possibly another option would be to spread the money and buy more stocks in all existing holdings.

Any suggestions? 

BP – 21st May
Can Australian home prices keep rising?
Not forgetting our near-neighbours to the east, of course:

http://www.perthnow.com.au/business/floodgates-open-as-kiwis-migrate-to-oz/story-e6frg2qc-1226362052916 

BP – 21st May
Can Australian home prices keep rising?
Useful stats, Ned.

Lachlan’s comment regarding an increased flood of economic refugees is cogent. Around a third of our tenants fit this profile. Many have considerable cash assets. Most who eventually leave our rentals purchase existing homes, although in recent years, two families have built new homes.

These mass migrations seem to come in waves. The best example (apart from Ireland, of course) may be the stepping- stone-exodus from China to Hong Kong to Vancouver and Toronto. Might help explain why these Canadian cities’ values grew… despite the GFC. 

Greg Atkinson – 21st May
Can Australian home prices keep rising?
Thanks Ned. I have read a few industry types questioning the ABS data but it seems some of the best out there I guess. I will have a look through it and see if there is there anything I can untangle. 

Lachlan – 20th May
Are Australian stocks poised to trend lower?
If the ramifications of terrible global economic imbalances cause the type of disruption feared most in the USA and Europe then is it not logical to assume many people will want to flee here to Oz…and that the government may well choose to let many of them come?….esp if they can benefit off it somehow?
Noting that many countries are preparing to restrict capital flight where they can. 

Ned S – 20th May
Can Australian home prices keep rising?
“Anyone have some reliable information that is not tainted by bias from either the property bulls or bears?”

I simply work off the ABS figures for established houses in the capital cities Greg? First MS Excel download on the following link. Go to Sheet called “Data1″ and look down Column J once downloaded – 89% increase by my calcs over the last decade:

http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/6416.0Mar%202012?OpenDocument

For significantly longer term stuff try googling “nigel stapledon australian house prices” – He’s the only bod that’s tried doing very long term analysis in Oz that I know of? 

Ned S – 20th May
Are Australian stocks poised to trend lower?
The state of the world has started to concern me again fellahs. Jim Jubak on America’s MSN has historically been one of the most conservative commentors I follow. And two of his most recent articles sound more accepting of it not being a matter of if things blow but more a case of when:

“In the short run, investors will make money by betting with the world’s central banks. In the long run, the collapse of this global put will be very painful.

The challenge is figuring out when this long run begins. I still flag 2013. But that timetable is subject to change. My leading indicator is how the U.S. government deals with the impending fiscal cliff that the United States is headed toward in 2013. (For more on that fiscal cliff, see my column, “Markets don’t fear a fiscal cliff.”)”

http://money.msn.com/investing/can-the-central-banks-keep-us-safe-jubak.aspx?page=3

“The fiscal cliff approaches …”

http://money.msn.com/investing/markets-do-not-fear-a-fiscal-cliff-jubak.aspx

And yep, if he’s feeling that convinced the world is in for a lot of grief and it’s pretty much unavoidable now, then given how conservative he’s historically been, I certainly think one has to take his thoughts onboard. 

BP – 20th May
Can Australian home prices keep rising?

http://www.perthnow.com.au/business/rents-hit-the-roof-in-wa/story-e6frg2ru-1226360925959 

Greg Atkinson – 20th May
Are Australian stocks poised to trend lower?
If the markets behave as they have been then attention will move from Europe and find something to rally about elsewhere. The big unknown out there at the moment is China and for Australian investors at the moment the thing to watch in the commodities futures and the Baltic Dry Index.

The Australian stock market is a trend follower not a trend setter. Our market won’t rally if commodities prices are falling, it’s that simple at the moment in my opinion.

P.S. I have started to set up an area where you can track commodities prices etc here: http://www.shareswatch.com.au/blog/commodities-prices-and-market-updates/ 

Lachlan – 20th May
Are Australian stocks poised to trend lower?
The twist operation fuelled the US market just as did QE1 and 2 however the Oz market under twist stayed in cooling mode as did the HSI and hovering somewhere close to long term trend lines. I contend however that there is no stop to the monetisations at the Fed. It’s impossible. I am not saying this will result in wage inflation near term and I am sure there will be some large corporate failures nonetheless….the losses in some cases passed on to the masses no doubt.

I’d like BHP shares and I would accumulate as the price drops (if it does) at places like 30 and 25 (crudely) where some support could be found.
Having said that I won’t play until business picks up just a little. Pretty quiet presently. 

Stillgotshoeson – 19th May
Are Australian stocks poised to trend lower?
The Big 4 banks and RIO, BHP are still stay away from stocks imho, too much downside risk still with the current world economic state. Their weighting on the all ords is very high too, so further falls in the miners and some serious declines in banking stocks does not bode well for the ASX.

QEIII in the US and more money printing in the euro zone will be a catalyst for the next leg up in the share markets (here and abroad)

This is still kicking the can down the road, so I maintain my view that whilst we may have short term rallies there just is no fundamental reasons for any sustained rise in the markets and they have a destiny with new lows during the continuation of this melt down.

The year is running out fast so any central bank moves to pump markets will probably allow you to correct in your view on where the market will be at years end Greg.

The time frame on how long stimulus lasts seems to get shorter with each fix, so maybe the hit will wear off before year ends helping my viewpoint.

Shoes.. Adelaide.