Shareswatch Australia

There is nothing particularly exciting about the Australian stock market these days. The malaise which has essentially paralysed the government seems to have spread to the business sector which in turn is slowly sucking the lifeblood out of the share market. It’s unlikely that things will improve soon and so investors should prepare themselves for the market to move lower over the next few months.

Unfortunately I was sick the past few weeks and I am just now getting back into the swing of things. Similar to the demand pull that the warmer than usual spring has had on macroeconomic data, the warmer spring caused me to have an earlier than usual sinus infection as well as some horrific allergies. I suppose I am pushing it a bit far when I am comparing my health concerns to economic data, but alas I fly my nerd flag proudly.

So far this year the Australian stock market had managed to edge slowly upwards and the All Ordinaries Index appears poised to settle above 4400 during the next week or so. Although the risks of a major Eurozone economic implosion appear to be fading, the signs are that the economy in China continues to slow and it appears the U.S. economy is still struggling. The situation in China in particular is likely to have a major impact on where the Australian stock market heads next over the following few months.

It may appear to some investors that the Australian stock market has started 2012 in the same volatile manner as we have become use to over the last few years, however trading so far this year has been fairly calm.  An optimist might believe that this is an indication that the markets are finally settling down though I fear we are simply enjoying a period of calm before we enter a stormy phase again.

Recently the markets appear to have settled somewhat and the Australian stock market has steadily been heading higher so far in 2012. Could we be seeing the early signs of another bull market taking hold or are we about to see another sharp correction take the ASX All Ordinaries back down towards 4000 and perhaps lower?

Recently the markets appear to have settled somewhat and the Australian stock market has steadily been heading higher so far in 2012. Could we be seeing the early signs of another bull market taking hold or are we about to see another sharp correction take the ASX All Ordinaries back down towards 4000 and perhaps lower?

The Australian stock market has finished trading for the year with the ASX All Ordinaries & S&P & ASX 200 both closing around 15% lower for 2011. It has been a disappointing year for share market investors (yet again) with even the mining stocks stumbling lower over the last 12 months. Many investors might be under the impression that the market slid back over the last few months of 2011, however the Australian stock market has been trending down since as far back as April.

The interest rate cut yesterday by the Reserve Bank of Australia suggests that finally the RBA understands that the Chinese economy will not keep expanding at a rapid rate while its major trading partners are struggling. But even if the Chinese economy slows more than most economists expect this is unlikely to send the global economy back into a GFC-like slump.

If you were to believe some of the ramblings on mainstream media sites you might get the impression that Australian stocks have on occasions bounced back strongly and that in some way this is a reflection of how well the Australian economy is doing. However the reality is that the Australian stock market has been trending downwards since July and many stocks are simply limping from one week to the next.

Over the last six months stock markets globally have become more volatile as Europe and the U.S. struggle to revive their economies.  To make things more complicated many advanced economies have racked up so much debt during the ‘good times’ that they now don’t have the capacity to spend their way out of trouble.  There will be no quick fixes and the situation is worrying enough to even rattle the commodities bulls.

So far 2011 has not been a good year for the Australian stock market despite the ASX All Ordinaries  & S&P/ASX 200 flirting with the 5000 points level earlier in the year.  Over recent months the market has fallen back into bear market territory so a review at this stage of some 52 week stock price highs & low may give us an insight into how the market is tracking.

Prices for hard commodities such as copper, iron ore & coal have risen strongly over the past decade and are now trading well above their long term historical averages.  This in turn drove the ASX All Ordinaries Index to a bull market high in 2007 and has helped put some support under the market ever since.  But is it realistic to expect high commodities prices will keep propping up the Australian stock market?

This week the Australian stock market slid into what I would call a bear market although some would argue that it has avoided such fate by a whisker. The reality is however that the ASX All Ordinaries did close below 4000 recently and that represents a drop of just over 20% from levels seen in April. If it looks and feels like a bear market, then for me it is a bear market.

Often it is useful to step away from looking at the daily movements of the stock market and review what has happened over the last decade.  This won’t exactly tell investors which stocks will do well during the next 10 years, but it does show which trends have moved the market to where it is now.

This week was quite a ride for stock market investors with the ASX All Ords and ASX 200 both trading at one stage under 4000 points.  However as the week progressed the markets started to claw their way back up and things are not quite as worrying as they were a few days ago.  What investors will be trying to work out now is if the stock market rout is over, or is it just having a rest before it once again sends stocks falling?

As I write today the Australian stock market has slumped around -4% so far after the Dow Jones fell -4.3% and markets in Europe also ended sharply lower. As per usual, many finance journalists are hurriedly pumping out scary stories and dramatic headlines to gain readers attention so it’s time to grab a cup of coffee, relax and focus on the facts.