Shareswatch Australia

I have been a vocal critic of the National Broadband Network for a long time and was talking about what a mess it would be way before the mainstream media woke up.  So to further illustrate my point I have put together a list of  areas or ways where I believe the taxpayers $43 billion could be better spent and deliver better outcomes for the Australian people.

If you are confused about the conflicting  reports regarding the Australian economy and outlook for the stock market you are not alone.  Much of this confusion is caused by financial journalists who one day are talking about a double dip recession and then suddenly switch to chirping about a robust Australian economy once some positive economic data appears.

I have a message for those people who fled to the hills over the last few years fearing that global trade was going to collapse, paper money would be worthless and that gold would be the only thing worth owning for years to come and that message is:  “the global economy is recovering, please come back and join the rest of us”.

Over the last week the Australian stock market has taken a turn downwards pretty much inline with markets across Asia, Europe and the U.S.  Once again no mater how much the RBA talks up our economy, the fact is that Australia’s economic health depends on how our major trading partners are doing and investors are starting to get worried about the global economic outlook.

The current downturn in the world markets presents us with an opportunity to review or develop our investment strategy for the next few years. For some people it may mean a major overhaul such as moving from stocks to real estate, while for others it may mean just a realignment of stocks in a portfolio.

Well 2009 is almost over and although stock market investors did it tough in the first quarter, overall the ASX All Ordinaries and S&P/ASX 200 posted healthy gains of around 30%. This means stocks & shares were in fact a good place to have your money over the last 12 months.

Over the last few weeks I have found it difficult to write much about the Australian economy or stock market simply because events have pretty much unfolded as I guessed they would some months ago. Despite the hype from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and some sections of the business media the fact is that the Australian stock market is still trading around 30% below the highs of 2007.

Harvey Norman is a retailer of household electrical appliances, personal computers and furniture & fittings with stores in Australia, New
Zealand, Slovenia, Ireland, Singapore and Malaysia. The company started with the opening of a single store in 1982 and was listed on the Australian stock exchange in 1987.

Now that it appears we are in the midst of the long awaited stock market correction it seems an ideal time to check how the 52 week stock prices have been tracking for a number of ASX listed stocks as this may tell us if the rally of the last 7 months is running out of steam.

One year ago I put together a fictional portfolio of stocks by simply using a random number generator and a list of shares that makes up the S&P/ASX 200 Index. Now 12 months later it is time to look at how these stocks have performed and see if they can tell us anything about the overall state of the Australian stock market.

The Australian stock market has finally rallied back up to where I believed the bear market bottom was last year but although this is a positive sign, the Australian economy faces a number of challenges in the years ahead and these might well make it difficult for the market to surge ahead in 2010 and beyond.

Well September passed rather uneventfully as far as the stock market was concerned although in the last few days, it has pulled back somewhat. However the overall trend is undoubtedly upwards and this looks like it will be maintained for the rest of the year. Despite plenty of gloomy views the bull market lives on, at least for now.

Australian Worldwide Exploration Limited (AWE)  is an Australian based oil and gas explorer/producer that over the past few years that has ramped up production and profits. Over the last year however the fall in energy prices has caused a drop in earnings and it’s share price, but if you believe that oil and gas prices will move higher over the next few years then AWE may be a good stock to watch.

Back in June the Shareswatch Random Portfolio was down by just over 4% but as I wrote in the update for that month, I felt confident it would be in positive territory within 2009. Thanks to the sustained rally this financial year the portfolio is now well into positive territory and I doubt it will be in the red again for many years, if ever.

As of today the Australian stock market has rallied just over 30% since bottoming out in March and so it is looking likely that the worst is over as far as 2008-2009 stock market rout is concerned. However the market is still well below the highs of 2007 and so a full stock market recovery is still a long way off.

Now that the worst of the stock market rout appears behind us perhaps it is a good time to think about investing in a stock that should rise along with any bull market rally. ASX Limited is one stock that may allow investors to do just that, while at the same time providing income via franked dividends.