Shareswatch Australia

The interest rate cut yesterday by the Reserve Bank of Australia suggests that finally the RBA understands that the Chinese economy will not keep expanding at a rapid rate while its major trading partners are struggling. But even if the Chinese economy slows more than most economists expect this is unlikely to send the global economy back into a GFC-like slump.

If you were to believe some of the ramblings on mainstream media sites you might get the impression that Australian stocks have on occasions bounced back strongly and that in some way this is a reflection of how well the Australian economy is doing. However the reality is that the Australian stock market has been trending downwards since July and many stocks are simply limping from one week to the next.

Over the last six months stock markets globally have become more volatile as Europe and the U.S. struggle to revive their economies.  To make things more complicated many advanced economies have racked up so much debt during the ‘good times’ that they now don’t have the capacity to spend their way out of trouble.  There will be no quick fixes and the situation is worrying enough to even rattle the commodities bulls.

Prices for hard commodities such as copper, iron ore & coal have risen strongly over the past decade and are now trading well above their long term historical averages.  This in turn drove the ASX All Ordinaries Index to a bull market high in 2007 and has helped put some support under the market ever since.  But is it realistic to expect high commodities prices will keep propping up the Australian stock market?

As I write today the Australian stock market has slumped around -4% so far after the Dow Jones fell -4.3% and markets in Europe also ended sharply lower. As per usual, many finance journalists are hurriedly pumping out scary stories and dramatic headlines to gain readers attention so it’s time to grab a cup of coffee, relax and focus on the facts.

We are almost through a third of 2011 and the mood across global markets appears to be decidedly downbeat.  The bullish voices of late 2010 have now faded and even the Reserve Bank of Australia and Federal Treasurer are sounding cautious. But don’t be fooled by the talk that recent events have caused the global economy to face headwinds because the reality is that 2011 was always going to be a tough year.

Stock markets around the world have had a very volatile run over the last few weeks with everything from debt levels in Europe to housing statistics in the U.S.  giving scaring investors. But during times of market volatility it is important to try and spot the longer term market trends and not get carried away by sensational headlines or daily market swings.

Both the ASX All Ordinaries and S&P/ASX 200 have been basically moving sideways now since September and although the market may seem to be drifting, it is actually reflecting fairly accurately the state of the Australian economy. For despite what some finance journalists seem to believe, the Australian economy will not be able to surge ahead simply because the Chinese are stimulating their domestic economy.

Despite how convincing market experts appear on television or how cleverly they put pen to paper, the truth is that nobody knows for sure how the global economy will perform next year. For every positive sign or trend there is a worrying one, and despite the Dow Jones having some strong days recently the fact is the U.S. economy is still in bad shape.

It seems that many financial journalists and commentators have decided that Australia has escaped a recession, and that the economy is doing just fine now based on the  June Quarter GDP figures that have just been released. But I wonder how many of them looked into the GDP data in detail and spotted the warning signs?

Hover over the stock price change to see the stock price graph or click on the name of the stock or index to see more detailed information on the Yahoo Finance website.

As of today the Australian stock market has rallied just over 30% since bottoming out in March and so it is looking likely that the worst is over as far as 2008-2009 stock market rout is concerned. However the market is still well below the highs of 2007 and so a full stock market recovery is still a long way off.

The one sure thing about a bear market is that it provides fertile ground for the rise of investment myths and for people talking up certain assets classes by feeding on the fear of investors. But before you leap into some new investment it is probably a good idea to be aware of some of the common shares related investment traps, tricks and myths that exist.

BHP Billiton (ASX:BHP) is one of the most widely held stocks in Australia and is often a core holding in many stock portfolios. Over the last few years the stock have reflected the fortunes of the commodities boom and as a result the BHP stock price saw a peak last year of over $45 only to come tumbling down to less than $25 a few months later. But maybe at current prices BHP is once again a stock worth looking at?

Sometimes when confronted by a seemingly endless barrage of economic data it is beneficial to just grab a cup of coffee and calmly review a few stock market related charts to see if they are trying to tell us something. Yes it is pretty chaotic in the global economy these days but believe it or not, some order appears to be creeping back into the Australian stock market.

The problem with picking which mining stock to invest in is that you really need to know something about mining or you need to be getting advice from someone that does. Unfortunately most of the analysts out there covering companies like BHP and RIO do not have any qualifications in disciplines such as mining engineering or geology, and for me that is like having a stock broker tick-off the pre-flight checklist on an aircraft I am just about to fly in. He might be a smart guy, but personally I would prefer someone who knows about aeroplanes up in the cockpit thanks.