Shareswatch Australia

It has been quite a week with investors needing to digest the slump in gold prices and also the weakening of commodity prices as well.  Although I have been warning about both a gold and commodities bubble for some time,  I have to admit I didn’t expect the gold price to fall back quite this much, this early.

Since mid last year, the Australian stock market has staged a fairly impressive rally with the ASX All Ordinaries Index moving from a decidedly bearish level of down near 4000 to a bull market level of just under 5200 points. But of late the market has slipped back which will worry some investors, while others see this a simply a pause before the rally upwards continues.

Finally it seems the Reserve Bank of Australia and Treasury have had to accept that the mining boom has peaked or is peaking, which is something I have been talking about on this site for some years.  However the RBA, Treasury and Gillard Government all still appear to be relatively upbeat about the outlook for the Australian economy next year which is surprising,  since I don’t see a lot to be optimistic about as I review the stock market, housing market or a few other economic indicators.

As we enter a new financial year it’s a good time to step back and look at some global economic indicators to try and get a grasp on any trends that might be emerging. Are there some signs of economic life out there or any hints of a global economic recovery that might help stock market investors some hope for the second half of 2012?

Over the last few months it has been quite remarkable to witness how the believers in Ken Henry’s ‘Golden Age’ have started to sound a little downbeat as the economic slowdown in China can no longer be ignored.  Therefore it seems like an appropriate time to try and assess what impact this slowdown is having (and may have) on the Australian economy and review the charts for a few important economic indicators.

The interest rate cut yesterday by the Reserve Bank of Australia suggests that finally the RBA understands that the Chinese economy will not keep expanding at a rapid rate while its major trading partners are struggling. But even if the Chinese economy slows more than most economists expect this is unlikely to send the global economy back into a GFC-like slump.

If you were to believe some of the ramblings on mainstream media sites you might get the impression that Australian stocks have on occasions bounced back strongly and that in some way this is a reflection of how well the Australian economy is doing. However the reality is that the Australian stock market has been trending downwards since July and many stocks are simply limping from one week to the next.

Over the last six months stock markets globally have become more volatile as Europe and the U.S. struggle to revive their economies.  To make things more complicated many advanced economies have racked up so much debt during the ‘good times’ that they now don’t have the capacity to spend their way out of trouble.  There will be no quick fixes and the situation is worrying enough to even rattle the commodities bulls.

Prices for hard commodities such as copper, iron ore & coal have risen strongly over the past decade and are now trading well above their long term historical averages.  This in turn drove the ASX All Ordinaries Index to a bull market high in 2007 and has helped put some support under the market ever since.  But is it realistic to expect high commodities prices will keep propping up the Australian stock market?

As I write today the Australian stock market has slumped around -4% so far after the Dow Jones fell -4.3% and markets in Europe also ended sharply lower. As per usual, many finance journalists are hurriedly pumping out scary stories and dramatic headlines to gain readers attention so it’s time to grab a cup of coffee, relax and focus on the facts.

We are almost through a third of 2011 and the mood across global markets appears to be decidedly downbeat.  The bullish voices of late 2010 have now faded and even the Reserve Bank of Australia and Federal Treasurer are sounding cautious. But don’t be fooled by the talk that recent events have caused the global economy to face headwinds because the reality is that 2011 was always going to be a tough year.

Stock markets around the world have had a very volatile run over the last few weeks with everything from debt levels in Europe to housing statistics in the U.S.  giving scaring investors. But during times of market volatility it is important to try and spot the longer term market trends and not get carried away by sensational headlines or daily market swings.

Both the ASX All Ordinaries and S&P/ASX 200 have been basically moving sideways now since September and although the market may seem to be drifting, it is actually reflecting fairly accurately the state of the Australian economy. For despite what some finance journalists seem to believe, the Australian economy will not be able to surge ahead simply because the Chinese are stimulating their domestic economy.

Despite how convincing market experts appear on television or how cleverly they put pen to paper, the truth is that nobody knows for sure how the global economy will perform next year. For every positive sign or trend there is a worrying one, and despite the Dow Jones having some strong days recently the fact is the U.S. economy is still in bad shape.

It seems that many financial journalists and commentators have decided that Australia has escaped a recession, and that the economy is doing just fine now based on the  June Quarter GDP figures that have just been released. But I wonder how many of them looked into the GDP data in detail and spotted the warning signs?

As of today the Australian stock market has rallied just over 30% since bottoming out in March and so it is looking likely that the worst is over as far as 2008-2009 stock market rout is concerned. However the market is still well below the highs of 2007 and so a full stock market recovery is still a long way off.