Shareswatch Australia

In the midst of all this market madness it might be useful for investors to sit back and look at what various sectors of the Australian stock market have being doing over the last ten years to see if we can spot any emerging trends.  We all know for example that the resources sector has been generally kind to investors over the last few years but will it continue to be a strong performer in the years ahead?

A sure sign that an economic trend has been established is when the OECD finally jumps on the trend bandwagon and recently the OECD has joined the group of recently converted economic pessimists. Gone are the days when big borrowing, big spending governments would save the day – the theme of the day now is hang onto your hats because we might be in for a bumpy ride.

Over the last few months media commentary regarding the Australian economy has turned decidedly gloomy. The wonders of the mining boom are now being questioned,  the U.S. and European economies matter again and people are starting to wake up to the reality that an economic strategy that basically relies on China dragging Australia along for the ride might not be that clever.

Last year when I dared to suggest that the Australian economy was unbalanced and that 2011-2012 could be a period of economic contraction the mainstream financial reporters were churning out “miracle” economy stories. Back then they were obsessed with telling their readers how the mining boom would shower riches across the Great Southern Land, but today many of them have started to sound a lot more cautious.

Back in April last year I suggested that the Australian economy was not quite as robust as most market commentators appeared to think and that it was quite possible for economic conditions to deteriorate quite markedly over the next few years.  So now one year later after I wrote about a possible economic slump in Australia let’s have a look at how events have unfolded since then.

The recent announcement by Julia Gillard that she is breaking an election promise and will attempt to bring in a Carbon Tax should come as no surprise to anyone. It is simply a reflection of the madness that is the Greens/Labor Party alliance and another example of a policy developed by a Government hooked on spending and raising taxation.

Often lost in the debate about house and home prices in Australia is the discussion regarding if our national obsession with housing is good or bad for the overall economy.  Instead of rejoicing that residential real estate prices in Australia rose during the global financial crisis, maybe we should be looking a little closer at why prices are rising to see what problems this might be causing.

As the year has progressed I have noticed that my view of the Australian stock market and economy has become increasingly at odds with most of the mainstream market commentators back in Australia.  Whereas they see reasons to be optimistic and feel the economy is robust, I feel the situation is quite different and believe the Australian economy is dangerously unbalanced and possibly primed for a nasty correction.

Over the last few weeks most of the financial media have once again managed to draw the wrong conclusions on a range of issues from Australian dollar to the strength of the Australian economy.  Talk of the so called two speed economy seems to be back in vogue whereas I believe we should be focused on and worried by, the unbalanced nature of the Australian economy.

Thankfully one of the least productive uses of resources on a national scale, a federal election, will soon be over. As usual the government of the day amazingly comes up with a whole range of great ideas that it failed to come up with during the previous 3 years and the crowd trying to gain power, attempt to convince us that they could do better.

Despite a fairly nasty stock market correction over the last few weeks the Australian market did not fall anywhere near the lows of March 2009 and as I have been saying for nearly a year, we won’t see those levels again for some time,  if ever.  So now that the market correction appears to be over, what are stocks, oil and gold prices likely to do during the next few months.

Stock markets around the world have had a very volatile run over the last few weeks with everything from debt levels in Europe to housing statistics in the U.S.  giving scaring investors. But during times of market volatility it is important to try and spot the longer term market trends and not get carried away by sensational headlines or daily market swings.

An open discussion about the Australian residential real estate market, home prices and the property market based on articles that were posted & discussed previously.

Welcome to the Shareswatch Australia discussion forum. The aim of this area of the website is to allow people to discuss more freely a variety of issues related to previous blog topics or provide site feedback.

Now that the major stock markets around the world are falling the Australian media have become obsessed with the concept of a “two speed economy”. I am not sure who first started using this term, maybe it was the gurus at the Treasury or the Reserve Bank, but in my view there is no such thing as a two speed economy. The situation we have now is that the economy has simply been mismanaged.

If you are an investor and you have not contemplated an economic slump in Australia during the next few years then in my view, you might be in for a nasty surprise. Yes the Australian economy did hold up well during the worst of global financial crisis, but the crisis isn’t over yet and it still has some sting left in it’s tail. (just ask the people of Greece!)