Shareswatch Australia

As each week passes the moans of struggling businesses grow louder and finally it appears that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) board members have woken up to the fact that the economy has been sliding backwards since late 2010. Once again the RBA had made a tactical blunder and raised rates too high just as they did as the global financial crisis was unfolding back in late 2007.

For a while I have resisted writing about the political situation in Australia simply because it is too depressing.  Of all the possible political outcomes after the election last year it looks like the Australian people have ended up with the worst case scenario – a leaderless dysfunctional government adrift at a time when major ecomic challenges loom.

For around a year or so I have gradually become more cautious about the outlook for the Chinese economy despite the assurances from mining company executives, the RBA and Wayne Swan amongst others that all is well. Without doubt the rapid development of the major cities in China has been nothing short of spectacular but surely we must ask ourselves: is this rapid growth sustainable over the long term?

If you are an investor and you have not contemplated an economic slump in Australia during the next few years then in my view, you might be in for a nasty surprise. Yes the Australian economy did hold up well during the worst of global financial crisis, but the crisis isn’t over yet and it still has some sting left in it’s tail. (just ask the people of Greece!)

The tentative signs of a global recovery (albeit a weak one) are becoming stronger each day and people who predicted a global depression have faded from view.  So the Australian economy is poised for growth again and everything is back on track right? Well not quite.

Technological advancements and the fortunes of mankind have been intertwined since our distant ancestors worked out how to harness the power of fire or use a sharpened stick to hunt for food. The future will be no different so it makes sense as investors to try and have some understanding of how some technologies may develop over the next decade or so.

Now that the world seems to have avoided falling into an economic heap, various pundits have switched their attention to life after the global financial crisis. Of course if you spend most of your life saying the world economy is doomed then there has to be a crisis after this current crisis and one scenario being talked about is where many developed nations will enter a period of deflation.

Almost everyday we hear about how commodities exports have helped protect Australia (so far) from the worst of the global economic crisis. However although Australian exports have held up well prices and volumes have still fallen for many mining products but almost nobody seems to be asking the question, what will happen if demand and prices for some key Australian commodities never returns to the levels reached in 2008?

The current economic downturn has taken a lot of the focus off soft commodities, but if you believe that over the long term that prices for wheat, cotton and beef etc. will rise again than investing in quality farmland may be good investment option. One way investors can do this is via a recently listed company: Prime Ag Australia Limited.