So far the Australian economy has held up quite strongly in 2014 and has outperformed many other developed economies since the GFC caused havoc across global markets in 2008-2009. Belatedly the Australian stock market has also shown post GFC bullish signs having rallied strongly from a low last year to up around 5500 this year. So all is going well right? Well not really, and if we scratch under the surface there are some very worrying trends which could cause years of strife for the Australian economy and the Australian stock market.
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June 6th, 2014 · 6 Comments
August 13th, 2013 · 22 Comments
There has been a lot of noise about the Australian economy of late due to the federal election campaign, and most likely much of what is talked about by politicians is not worth paying much attention to. For investors the bigger and more important issues are related to if the Australian economy is in long term decline or is the economy simply heading through a short term rough patch.
March 15th, 2013 · 24 Comments
According to data released the other day, the Australian economy created around 70,000 positions recently which apparently is very good according to most economists. This is despite the fact that most of the jobs were part-time roles and I saw no breakdown regarding what type of jobs were created. That doesn’t seem to matter, once the media and assorted experts say it’s time to cheer then we are suppose to cheer.
November 12th, 2012 · 24 Comments
Finally it seems the Reserve Bank of Australia and Treasury have had to accept that the mining boom has peaked or is peaking, which is something I have been talking about on this site for some years. However the RBA, Treasury and Gillard Government all still appear to be relatively upbeat about the outlook for the Australian economy next year which is surprising, since I don’t see a lot to be optimistic about as I review the stock market, housing market or a few other economic indicators.
June 4th, 2012 · 111 Comments
Over the last few months it has been quite remarkable to witness how the believers in Ken Henry’s ‘Golden Age’ have started to sound a little downbeat as the economic slowdown in China can no longer be ignored. Therefore it seems like an appropriate time to try and assess what impact this slowdown is having (and may have) on the Australian economy and review the charts for a few important economic indicators.
December 16th, 2011 · 28 Comments
As we approach the end of another year we should not be surprised by the economic turmoil in Europe, the ailing U.S. economy or the rumblings of a major slowdown in the Chinese property market. The signs that all was not well with the global economy have been raised on this humble site going back more than a year. Simply put, borrowing vast sums of money and splashing it around did not fix the global economic imbalances highlighted by the market meltdown in 2008.
December 7th, 2011 · 34 Comments
The interest rate cut yesterday by the Reserve Bank of Australia suggests that finally the RBA understands that the Chinese economy will not keep expanding at a rapid rate while its major trading partners are struggling. But even if the Chinese economy slows more than most economists expect this is unlikely to send the global economy back into a GFC-like slump.
November 29th, 2011 · 12 Comments
If you were to believe some of the ramblings on mainstream media sites you might get the impression that Australian stocks have on occasions bounced back strongly and that in some way this is a reflection of how well the Australian economy is doing. However the reality is that the Australian stock market has been trending downwards since July and many stocks are simply limping from one week to the next.
October 21st, 2011 · 34 Comments
Over the last six months stock markets globally have become more volatile as Europe and the U.S. struggle to revive their economies. To make things more complicated many advanced economies have racked up so much debt during the ‘good times’ that they now don’t have the capacity to spend their way out of trouble. There will be no quick fixes and the situation is worrying enough to even rattle the commodities bulls.
August 5th, 2011 · 69 Comments
As I write today the Australian stock market has slumped around -4% so far after the Dow Jones fell -4.3% and markets in Europe also ended sharply lower. As per usual, many finance journalists are hurriedly pumping out scary stories and dramatic headlines to gain readers attention so it’s time to grab a cup of coffee, relax and focus on the facts.
February 7th, 2011 · 55 Comments
Often lost in the debate about house and home prices in Australia is the discussion regarding if our national obsession with housing is good or bad for the overall economy. Instead of rejoicing that residential real estate prices in Australia rose during the global financial crisis, maybe we should be looking a little closer at why prices are rising to see what problems this might be causing.
March 11th, 2010 · Comments Off
ASX Charts – Click on the stock market index, share or stock price chart for a larger image. Charts include ASX All Ordinaries Index (XAO), S&P/ASX 200 Index (XJO), Commonwealth Bank (CBA), BHP Billiton (BHP), RIO Tinto (RIO), Telstra (TLS) plus many more Australian stock market related charts. ASX listed ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) charts are also included.
April 14th, 2009 · 4 Comments
Without a doubt there are a lot of scary economic numbers out there and as far as the Australian economy goes, things seem to be heading downhill fast. But as strange as it seems, the bad news recently has not been all that bad and actually there has even been some good news. So is it possible that at long last that the bear is back in its cage?
January 10th, 2009 · 3 Comments
One question that investors need to consider amongst all this market turmoil is; has the dream run of the Australian stock market come to end? Perhaps for example the days of the Australian market (ASX) outperforming the Dow Jones Index are over and we need to be prepared for less glamorous returns? We might even have to put aside our patriotic feelings and look offshore for better returns in the future?
February 8th, 2015 · 1 Comment
The long expected commodities sell-off is still a work in progress with many of the commodities bulls from just a year or so ago now covering their tracks by making ultra-bearish predictions. But let’s bypass the usual hype in the mainstream finance media and focus on some trends and commodity price charts to see if there are any signs the correction may be easing.
February 1st, 2015 · 4 Comments
The recent election in Greece which resulted in the Syriza Party being swept into power has once again put the spotlight on the struggling Eurozone. In isolation, the election of a left wing anti-austerity party in Greece would appear to be no more than a nuisance for markets beyond Europe. But I believe that there is a lot more at stake than just simply a stand-off between the new Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and the ECB, IMF and EU which are collectively known as the Troika creditors.
December 18th, 2014 · 17 Comments
According to the prevailing wisdom of the finance media and it seems most market analysts, the fall in the price of oil has not only been sudden but also unexpected. I suspect much of this has to do with a number of people trying to deflect attention away from their earlier bullish calls and it’s amazing how many market bulls have now morphed into long-term market bears. Unfortunately for them the process has not been a total success and if you look closely, you can still see their horns.
September 25th, 2013 · 13 Comments
There is a lot of confusing news & information swirling around regarding the markets these days. Depending on who you listen to either the U.S. economy is recovering or Ben Bernanke is the ultimate asset bubble creator. In China some see the economy in a state of planned transition whereas others (including myself), see it as a command economy fuelled by unsustainable credit growth. Meanwhile in Australia there appears to be some confusion regarding if the mining boom is over or just having a rest?