Shareswatch Australia

The interest rate cut yesterday by the Reserve Bank of Australia suggests that finally the RBA understands that the Chinese economy will not keep expanding at a rapid rate while its major trading partners are struggling. But even if the Chinese economy slows more than most economists expect this is unlikely to send the global economy back into a GFC-like slump.

Prices for hard commodities such as copper, iron ore & coal have risen strongly over the past decade and are now trading well above their long term historical averages.  This in turn drove the ASX All Ordinaries Index to a bull market high in 2007 and has helped put some support under the market ever since.  But is it realistic to expect high commodities prices will keep propping up the Australian stock market?

Commodities, precious metals & energy prices are in US dollars unless otherwise stated. Charts can be selected by using the links on the left. Commodities prices and charts are provided for information purposes only.

We are almost through a third of 2011 and the mood across global markets appears to be decidedly downbeat.  The bullish voices of late 2010 have now faded and even the Reserve Bank of Australia and Federal Treasurer are sounding cautious. But don’t be fooled by the talk that recent events have caused the global economy to face headwinds because the reality is that 2011 was always going to be a tough year.

Over the last few weeks most of the financial media have once again managed to draw the wrong conclusions on a range of issues from Australian dollar to the strength of the Australian economy.  Talk of the so called two speed economy seems to be back in vogue whereas I believe we should be focused on and worried by, the unbalanced nature of the Australian economy.

According to many major news outlets and financial commentators in Australia, the recent trade data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) is proof  that the Australian economy is “booming”.  The Reserve Bank also seems to think the nation is in the midst of a boom and the amazing Ken Henry (of where is my tax report fame) reckons Australia will enjoy a “golden age” for decades.

Despite how convincing market experts appear on television or how cleverly they put pen to paper, the truth is that nobody knows for sure how the global economy will perform next year. For every positive sign or trend there is a worrying one, and despite the Dow Jones having some strong days recently the fact is the U.S. economy is still in bad shape.

Recently you have probably noticed that gold prices are getting plenty of media coverage and we are often hearing predictions that gold will hit $2000 USD an ounce in the not too distant future. Sadly what is often not highlighted is that gold is rising mainly because the U.S. dollar is falling and that the demand for gold is largely being supported up by investors.

Over the past few weeks most of the economic news from Australia’s major trading partners has been fairly good. As a result the Australian stock market has continued to rise along with markets in Europe, Asia and the United States. But before we get too carried away it is probably a good idea to look beyond stock prices in order to check how the global economy is really faring.

Sometimes when confronted by a seemingly endless barrage of economic data it is beneficial to just grab a cup of coffee and calmly review a few stock market related charts to see if they are trying to tell us something. Yes it is pretty chaotic in the global economy these days but believe it or not, some order appears to be creeping back into the Australian stock market.