Shareswatch Australia

Finally it seems the Reserve Bank of Australia and Treasury have had to accept that the mining boom has peaked or is peaking, which is something I have been talking about on this site for some years.  However the RBA, Treasury and Gillard Government all still appear to be relatively upbeat about the outlook for the Australian economy next year which is surprising,  since I don’t see a lot to be optimistic about as I review the stock market, housing market or a few other economic indicators.

Australian stocks seem to be enjoying a broad rally today and I suspect the mainstream financial media will churn out bullish sounding headlines when the market closes.  But if we step back and review a few charts it’s pretty clear that the Australian stock market is stuck in a rut and I don’t see it breaking free any time soon.

As we approach the end of another year we should not be surprised by the economic turmoil in Europe, the ailing U.S. economy or the rumblings of a major slowdown in the Chinese property market. The signs that all was not well with the global economy have been raised on this humble site going back more than a year. Simply put, borrowing vast sums of money and splashing it around did not fix the global economic imbalances highlighted by the market meltdown in 2008.

Over the last few months media commentary regarding the Australian economy has turned decidedly gloomy. The wonders of the mining boom are now being questioned,  the U.S. and European economies matter again and people are starting to wake up to the reality that an economic strategy that basically relies on China dragging Australia along for the ride might not be that clever.

Stock markets around the world have had a very volatile run over the last few weeks with everything from debt levels in Europe to housing statistics in the U.S.  giving scaring investors. But during times of market volatility it is important to try and spot the longer term market trends and not get carried away by sensational headlines or daily market swings.

Back in the 2008/2009 when home prices in parts of Europe and the United States were tumbling there were plenty of “experts” saying Australian house prices would also come crashing down. But alas the residential property market remained fairly robust during the global financial crisis and the experts who predicted a crash in property prices were wrong.

It is time once again to put my ramblings, rants and ruminations for the previous 12 months under the spotlight. Did I correctly spot any stock market or economic trends or should I be standing in the corner with the dunce cap on for most of 2010?

It has been hard to write much about the Japanese economy of late simply because the economic data appeared to change every day. But over the last few weeks things do seem to have stabilised and both the government and the private sector in Japan generally agree that the economy probably hit the bottom earlier this year.

The debate about where Australian home prices are heading appears to be getting more intense these days. Commentators who have been predicting home prices will crash have seized on falls seen so far as proof they are right, whereas those who believe prices will not crash pounce on the same data and says it supports their view. Confusing isn’t it?

In Part 1 of the Australian home prices debate I looked at some of the factors that could drive home prices down in Australia. Now in Part 2, I shall outline the other side of the debate and consider the arguments that support the view that the Australian residential property market will generally withstand the fallout from the global financial crisis and not follow prices down in a similar way to the U.S. and U.K.

One of the most discussed economic topics at the moment in Australia is regarding whether real estate prices are about to plunge across the nation or if Australian residential property will generally be spared from the savage price falls seen in the U.S. and the U.K.  Rather than take sides in this debate, I will merely outline some of the arguments being tossed around in newspapers, online forums and blogs etc. and see how well they hold up to scrutiny.