Shareswatch Australia

An open discussion about the Australian residential real estate market, home prices and the property market based on articles that were posted & discussed previously.

Back in the 2008/2009 when home prices in parts of Europe and the United States were tumbling there were plenty of “experts” saying Australian house prices would also come crashing down. But alas the residential property market remained fairly robust during the global financial crisis and the experts who predicted a crash in property prices were wrong.

It is time once again to put my ramblings, rants and ruminations for the previous 12 months under the spotlight. Did I correctly spot any stock market or economic trends or should I be standing in the corner with the dunce cap on for most of 2010?

If you were to believe the various ramblings of Kevin Rudd, Wayne Swan, Glenn Stevens and Ken Henry, then you would be under the impression that the Australian economy is about to power ahead in 2010. But if the IMF expects global growth to be slow, why would Australia be set to do any better?

One year has now passed since the failure of Lehman Brothers sent global financial markets plunging and only recently has it felt that the global economy may finally be entering a period of recovery. But will conditions be better or worse in 12 months? Will house prices be higher or lower and where will Australian stocks be in September 2010?

The debate about where Australian home prices are heading appears to be getting more intense these days. Commentators who have been predicting home prices will crash have seized on falls seen so far as proof they are right, whereas those who believe prices will not crash pounce on the same data and says it supports their view. Confusing isn’t it?

One of the most discussed economic topics at the moment in Australia is regarding whether real estate prices are about to plunge across the nation or if Australian residential property will generally be spared from the savage price falls seen in the U.S. and the U.K.  Rather than take sides in this debate, I will merely outline some of the arguments being tossed around in newspapers, online forums and blogs etc. and see how well they hold up to scrutiny.

It seems that 2009 is going to be one those years where economists, politicians and investors etc. will find out just how inaccurate most economic forecasts really are. In the good years if growth estimates for the economy are off the mark nobody seems too stressed, but when economic conditions deteriorate people tend to get more concerned about forecasts.

Nobody likes to see their investment portfolio decrease in value but for most of us, that is what has been happening now for most of 2008. The downturn in the stock market has hit everyone, from top fund managers to amateur stock traders and there must be a lot of nervous people close to selling out of the market.