Shareswatch Australia

There is nothing particularly exciting about the Australian stock market these days. The malaise which has essentially paralysed the government seems to have spread to the business sector which in turn is slowly sucking the lifeblood out of the share market. It’s unlikely that things will improve soon and so investors should prepare themselves for the market to move lower over the next few months.

Unfortunately I was sick the past few weeks and I am just now getting back into the swing of things. Similar to the demand pull that the warmer than usual spring has had on macroeconomic data, the warmer spring caused me to have an earlier than usual sinus infection as well as some horrific allergies. I suppose I am pushing it a bit far when I am comparing my health concerns to economic data, but alas I fly my nerd flag proudly.

This week may provide some trading opportunities for us if all goes well now that most traders are investors are all giddy about stocks again. Last week we saw money move out of bonds and into stocks and the bullishness vibe in the air reminds of many market peaks just before a 5%+ correction in stocks.

An extended stock market market downturn such as the one we are experiencing now provides long term investors with an opportunity to gauge how well companies have been able to deal with harsh economic conditions.  So today let’s have a look at four consumer spending related Australian listed companies and see how they have fared over the last five years.

It may appear to some investors that the Australian stock market has started 2012 in the same volatile manner as we have become use to over the last few years, however trading so far this year has been fairly calm.  An optimist might believe that this is an indication that the markets are finally settling down though I fear we are simply enjoying a period of calm before we enter a stormy phase again.

Friday morning traders and market participants awaited the key January employment report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The reaction to the supposedly wonderful report was a surge in the S&P 500 E-Mini futures contracts as well as several other key equity index futures.

Recently the markets appear to have settled somewhat and the Australian stock market has steadily been heading higher so far in 2012. Could we be seeing the early signs of another bull market taking hold or are we about to see another sharp correction take the ASX All Ordinaries back down towards 4000 and perhaps lower?

Recently the markets appear to have settled somewhat and the Australian stock market has steadily been heading higher so far in 2012. Could we be seeing the early signs of another bull market taking hold or are we about to see another sharp correction take the ASX All Ordinaries back down towards 4000 and perhaps lower?

Over the past five months gold has fallen sharply and is no longer headline news which it once dominated back in 2011 when it was making new highs every day. The shiny metal has been under pressure because traders and investors started to pull some money off the table to lock in gains.

The Australian stock market has finished trading for the year with the ASX All Ordinaries & S&P & ASX 200 both closing around 15% lower for 2011. It has been a disappointing year for share market investors (yet again) with even the mining stocks stumbling lower over the last 12 months. Many investors might be under the impression that the market slid back over the last few months of 2011, however the Australian stock market has been trending down since as far back as April.

The interest rate cut yesterday by the Reserve Bank of Australia suggests that finally the RBA understands that the Chinese economy will not keep expanding at a rapid rate while its major trading partners are struggling. But even if the Chinese economy slows more than most economists expect this is unlikely to send the global economy back into a GFC-like slump.

Over the last week the Australian stock market has taken a turn downwards pretty much inline with markets across Asia, Europe and the U.S.  Once again no mater how much the RBA talks up our economy, the fact is that Australia’s economic health depends on how our major trading partners are doing and investors are starting to get worried about the global economic outlook.