Shareswatch Australia

In the midst this stock market turmoil there may be some battered down stocks which present the opportunity for investors to buy shares in quality companies at bargain prices. Three Australian companies that might fall into that category are Qantas Airways, Telstra Corporation and Onesteel Limited.

As each week passes the moans of struggling businesses grow louder and finally it appears that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) board members have woken up to the fact that the economy has been sliding backwards since late 2010. Once again the RBA had made a tactical blunder and raised rates too high just as they did as the global financial crisis was unfolding back in late 2007.

Last year when I dared to suggest that the Australian economy was unbalanced and that 2011-2012 could be a period of economic contraction the mainstream financial reporters were churning out “miracle” economy stories. Back then they were obsessed with telling their readers how the mining boom would shower riches across the Great Southern Land, but today many of them have started to sound a lot more cautious.

Back in April last year I suggested that the Australian economy was not quite as robust as most market commentators appeared to think and that it was quite possible for economic conditions to deteriorate quite markedly over the next few years.  So now one year later after I wrote about a possible economic slump in Australia let’s have a look at how events have unfolded since then.

Now that the ASX All Ordinaries Index has broken through and closed above 5000, more than a few market watchers seem to be quite bullish about the prospects for the Australian stock market.  But will the share market rally from here or will another correction roll along and push it below 5000 yet again?

After some promising gains in the first part of 2010 the Australian stock market closed down today to finish the year basically unchanged. In plain English the share market essentially did nothing in 2010 and so if the Australian economy is really booming, then this is not being reflected in the performance of the ASX All Ordinaries or S&P/ASX 200.

Over the last few months it has become increasingly difficult to write about the Australian stock market simply because not much has been happening.  During the last 12 months the market has basically moved sideways with just the occasional dip or rally to break up the boredom.

According to many major news outlets and financial commentators in Australia, the recent trade data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) is proof  that the Australian economy is “booming”.  The Reserve Bank also seems to think the nation is in the midst of a boom and the amazing Ken Henry (of where is my tax report fame) reckons Australia will enjoy a “golden age” for decades.

Now that it appears we are in the midst of the long awaited stock market correction it seems an ideal time to check how the 52 week stock prices have been tracking for a number of ASX listed stocks as this may tell us if the rally of the last 7 months is running out of steam.

If you think that the Government’s plan to break-up Telstra is aimed at giving consumers a better deal then you are thinking just the way they want you to. The real reason the Government wants Telstra weakened is so that it’s poorly planned National Broadband Network (NBN) has an easier path into the broadband market.

The tentative signs of a global recovery (albeit a weak one) are becoming stronger each day and people who predicted a global depression have faded from view.  So the Australian economy is poised for growth again and everything is back on track right? Well not quite.

Like many Australians I have been frustrated for many years over the slow progress that was made in getting affordable high speed internet connections widely available across Australia.  However in order to get a world class communications network deployed we need the private sector to be in the driving seat and for the government to be involved as little as possible.  Yet thanks to government mismanagement, Australia is now about to spend a fortune of taxpayers money to roll-out a national broadband network.