Shareswatch Australia

Unfortunately I was sick the past few weeks and I am just now getting back into the swing of things. Similar to the demand pull that the warmer than usual spring has had on macroeconomic data, the warmer spring caused me to have an earlier than usual sinus infection as well as some horrific allergies. I suppose I am pushing it a bit far when I am comparing my health concerns to economic data, but alas I fly my nerd flag proudly.

Last year when I dared to suggest that the Australian economy was unbalanced and that 2011-2012 could be a period of economic contraction the mainstream financial reporters were churning out “miracle” economy stories. Back then they were obsessed with telling their readers how the mining boom would shower riches across the Great Southern Land, but today many of them have started to sound a lot more cautious.

North Korea bombards the South Korean held island of Yeonpyeong in the Yellow Sea, killing and wounding a number of people there. The hawks call for the strongest possible response. The pundits warn of another Korean War.

Strange things happen to Australian prime ministers. One (Harold Holt, 1966-67) disappeared while swimming near a Melbourne beach; speculation says he may have been eaten by a shark.

Some time ago I wrote that we would better served by having a Hobbit look after the Australian economy than the RBA, Treasury & Government and recent events have made this idea look particularly attractive. For at present we have the RBA raising rates, the Government spending and the Treasury appears to be unsure what is happening.

Well September passed rather uneventfully as far as the stock market was concerned although in the last few days, it has pulled back somewhat. However the overall trend is undoubtedly upwards and this looks like it will be maintained for the rest of the year. Despite plenty of gloomy views the bull market lives on, at least for now.

If you were to believe the various ramblings of Kevin Rudd, Wayne Swan, Glenn Stevens and Ken Henry, then you would be under the impression that the Australian economy is about to power ahead in 2010. But if the IMF expects global growth to be slow, why would Australia be set to do any better?

Despite howls of  “it’s a sucker’s rally” from some market commentators, Australian stocks have gradually pushed up since bottoming out earlier in the year. While nobody can say for sure what will happen over the next few months a look at the gold price and some stock market charts can at least tell us what is happening now.

Since the beginning of May the Australian stock market has basically moved sideways and at present there is no clear trend in place.  Eventually a trend will emerge so the question is:  will the Australian share market rally or move down over the next six months or so.

Without doubt the 2008-2009 bear market has been savage and most investors have seen their investment portfolios take a battering.  This year has been particularly unnerving as the Australian stock market looked like it may fall below 3000 just some weeks ago and we were heading for levels not seen since the last bear market.  But just as all bull markets come to an end so do bear markets, and so I cannot help wondering if the rally since the lows of March (Ides of March?) mean we are already in the next bull market phase?