Yes they only comeout when we go down, and when we go up they are nowhere to be found

I still reckon the Australia stock market will hit around 5500 by September this year as I expect we will either have some good news regarding the global economy by then or I will be horribly wrong and stocks will be back down near 4000.

But I think we can safely say that the recent correct was just that, a correction and not some plunge back down to new lows as the panic merchants were gleefully predicting about a week ago.

Bank of America
http://www.valueline.com/dow30/f6291.pdf

JPMorgan Chase
http://www.valueline.com/dow30/f1899.pdf

Above and all posts not advice, just discussion — seek financial advice/info/decisions from a financial adviser

Yep, the cyclicals have not been showing good numbers from what I’ve seen. Alcoa’s numbers were poor. The less cyclical large multinationals are basically cost cutting and getting more efficiencies — with flat/slightly higher sales figures (e.g. Walmart, Sanofi)
BDI looks like its rebounding…but its a bloody roller coaster. I’m reluctant to make calls on its direction !
My technical systems were triggering bullish signals soon after the recent lows and are signaling new highs soon. Although you can never rely on these things; as soon as you do you’re dead.

If inflation keeps low and the economy mopes along without too much steam, US banks will do well. Thats a good environment for loan losses to drop and less provisioning.
I’m not so sure about Aussie banks. TBH I have no idea how toxic their loan books are until house prices fall meaningfully (and who knows when or if that will occur?)

We could just stay in this “twilight” zone as you say for several months. Statistically the SnP 500 only trends 15% of the time. 85% of the time it just goes sideways.

Above and all posts not advice, just discussion — seek financial advice/info/decisions from a financial adviser

Now investors are looking for signs of a return to growth and it just isn’t there yet. We are still in the Twilight Zone and I can’t see us getting out of this for maybe six months.

People seem to get away with reports of companies announcing an increase in profits, but these “increases” are simply an improvement from very poor results over the last couple of years. Most major companies from what I can tell are reporting profits much lower than those in 2007/2008 so it isn’t anything to get excited about yet.

The signs I am watching are mainly trade figures, the BDI and commodities prices.

“So while this bull market has longer to run, since it began in March, the ride might not last much longer. “We could be getting into the last third of the bull market,” said Ed Clissold, senior global analyst at Ned Davis Research.

The firm doesn’t see January’s decline as a sign of an imminent end to the bull market partly because it hasn’t seen excesses of investor optimism or narrowing of broad market gains, which usually precede a bull market’s end. But the firm is warning of a more-serious setback—and —possibly the end of the bull market-some time in the spring or summer. It recently published a study showing that market declines of more than 10% are common in the six to 18 months following a recession’s end.

One sign to watch for is what analysts call a rotation away from lower-quality stocks. Those are small stocks and battered companies such as banks that have led the recent gains. As a bull market matures, investors look for bigger, safer-seeming stocks with steadier earnings.”

Low inflation good for stock returns historically:

“Another bullish signal is that stocks do well when inflation is low. Davis presented data showing that stocks gained 18.1% when inflation was under 1%, 8.7% when inflation was 1% to 4%, 1.2% when inflation was 4% to 9%, and 0.7% when inflation was over 9%. His data reach back to 1947, and thus do not include the deflationary periods during the Depression, which many claim closely resemble today’s environment. ”

https://www.ndr.com/

Above and all posts not advice, just discussion — seek financial advice/info/decisions from a financial adviser

Paolo Pellegrini’s PSQR Capital Annual Letter:
http://www.marketfolly.com/2010/02/paolo-pellegrinis-psqr-capital-annual.html

Remember above not advice, just commentary — please seek a financial adviser for info/decisions/advice.

Remember above not advice, just commentary.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=af8bbtmHLfbQ&pos=1