http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE63D4NC20100415

We may just be getting ourselves use to a lifestyle we can’t afford!

Correct me if I wrong, but I have a vague recollection you opined a good while back that the GFC would see winners and losers Greg? With your thoughts being that Asia was likely to be in the winners camp.

Seems to me that is what is happening. With Oz going along for the ride.

Well I did say last year to watch Europe in: The forgotten economic giant: The European Union and actually someone back then left a very good comment about debt in the EU.

Still Europe is a very big economy and I doubt Greece will drag the whole house down. I am probably wrong, but I reckon this is a bit of a storm in a teacup as they say.

Hmmm … There goes the Greek Mafia’s claim on Omerta. Seems they aren’t even big on the “honour amongst thieves” thing?

Mental note: Think long and hard before accepting marriage proposals from nice Greek girls. Or business propositions from their daddies!

Ah those feisty Mediterranean temperaments – Do we detect a slight disinclination to do the stiff upper lip, shoulder to the wheel and let’s soldier on old chap routine?

“They will have to do a mass bailout theres no other choice.” – If I was Angela Merkel, the thought might be flicking through my mind that given I have East Germany safely back in the fold now, is starting to print up some “Deutsche Euros” an option?

There is good economic news out there but also plenty of worrying signs and trends. The BDI for example is looking weak and as Anon points out the real estate market in China is a bit of a worry, although some China experts say that the oversupply in office space in the big cities in China is just a short term blip. Who to believe?

Well I was right the first time, US retail sales up and appear to be recovering somewhat.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aLlZ432DjWkw&pos=3

Lucky i doubled my Walmart holdings Unlucky I sold my weaker retail stocks to fund the purchase !

“My big fat Greek bailout – European unity in action – The Germans don’t want to bail out the Greeks; The Greeks reckon their bailout isn’t big enough; The French reckon it’s those despicable Anglo-Saxon banks that caused it all; And Gordon Brown reckons “What Euro? – We don’t use the bloody Euro!” ”

Its like days of our lives. They will have to do a mass bailout theres no other choice. The funny thing about all this is post bailouts people will realise the Pound, the yen and the USD are just as bad if not worse.
Bloomberg is moving on from the PIIGS and targeting China now it seems. Gotta keep viewers on the site

Beijing Seen Vacant for 50% of Commercial Space as Chanos Predicts a Crash:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a6i2PSZD.Jr4&pos=13

Remember above and all posts not advice, just commentary, seek a professional adviser for info/advice/decisions.

As for the “Solar Sails” that little adventure is via a small company I work at. My way of thinking is technology will help us kick our oil and fossil fuel habit, not a a tax by stealth like the ETS. The designs of the sails are getting “sexier” as the technology improves.

Since I have an engineering background I tend to drift towards tech related stocks, not that this has done me much good so far

Yeah theres alot of competition in value investing now. But I agree it has limitations. I used to rely heavily on bookvalues until I realised alot of them were fictional

One value stock that lots are touting atm is Kraft. Heres a presentation on its value:

http://www.tilsonfunds.com/Kraft.pdf

I am not sure thats enough return for me, I would prefer low 20’s . I have enough stalwarts already. Probably be regretting that statement 3-4 years from now hah.

Regarding luck, you definitely need loads of it. But I think intuition plays a big part. Theres been so many times where the numbers looked excellent but my gut was saying something is not right here…i’d dump and companies would collapse several months later. I guess you cant learn that in a finance book, theres alot of art to the markets.

I noticed you had an investment in solar sails, from perusing earlier. Interesting concept. Are they thinking of camouflaging it abit…the visual affect would be important to the higher end market ?

“As for spotting trends, well I do sometimes get it right but sadly I seem to have the ability to pick the wrong stock in the right sector. For example I guessed financial stocks would bounce back but decided to try and ride Babcock & Brown (BNB) up…argghh! What a blunder!”

I’ve done that aswell. I picked some commodities early price appreication potential. Bght equities I thought were positively correlated. The commodity went up and the stock went backwards lol. I think Sector ETFs are the best if your trying to bet sectors. Pick the stock and the sector etf for insurance.

Remember above is not advice, only commentary – seek advice/info from a competent financial advisor

Now onto stocks. I am already an investor in the “green” energy sector and have been sadly disappointed so far. The companies generally seem to have lots of potential but are not exactly cash-cows at the moment. I would say I have made almost nothing from investing in this sector so far, I would have done better sticking with fossil fuel related companies!

As for spotting trends, well I do sometimes get it right but sadly I seem to have the ability to pick the wrong stock in the right sector. For example I guessed financial stocks would bounce back but decided to try and ride Babcock & Brown (BNB) up…argghh! What a blunder!

I also managed to invest in a gold mining company during the years when gold was rising but believe it or not, that company basically went under!

My biggest mistake over the last few years is that I paid too much attention to analysts recommendations. In 2008 I went into quite a few stocks that many brokers/analysts were keen on only to find them crash just months later.

Now I hardly look at any research and simply look at each company not as investment but as a business starting off with: do I like what the company does.

I have always tried to be a long term value type investor, but I have found that even this approach has limitations. Still, when all is said and done there is an awful lot of luck involved in being a good investor.

As for writing a newsletter, I don’t really have the time and I besides I prefer the freedom of being able to rant about anything via this blog. Nobody can edit me here

Right now I simply expect that it will take years for the global economy to settle down again and some national economies will be struggling for perhaps a decade or more. But it has all happened before..many times.

As for buying stocks, my approach at the moment is to look at a company and ask: will this company’s share price be significantly higher in 2-3 years time? If I convince myself that there is a good chance it will be, then I might think about buying a very small parcel of stocks.

I guess for those who follow stocks, it’s a question of why you are buying (or shorting?) – Do you figure you can beat Goldman Sachs on this short term trade? Or are you saying it seems like it could be good value given time.

And I’m sure I don’t have the savvy to be making calls like those.

I guess, that deep down, I’m taking the view that deleveraging will eventually end and the world will head off on its usual and preferred inflationary way again is about all.

According to the “wise” Malcolm Maiden the current correction is one “we had to have”. Thanks Mal, I guess the next rally will be the rally “we had to have” hey?

He then goes on to make this bizarre statement:

“Last year’s rally assumed that the climb away from the crisis would be smooth”

How did he come to that conclusion I wonder? Actually I would say last years rally was a fairly classic bounce off a very low level and I don’t think there were many (any?) people expecting the global economy was going recover smoothly…apart from Malcolm perhaps!

Yes, when I was looking at American retail stock I priced in a recovery in spending but obviously not back to previous levels. Unfortunately I didn’t think the recovery was going to be as slow and as weak as what is occurring now (should have heeded Greg’s commentary). Clearly the American consumer is more frugal. Many are deleveraging and/or unwilling to take on further consumer/credit-card debt.
I think if you bght stocks and held them for 10 years that is a good plan in theory. The problem would be handling the 50-70% swings throughout, plus the dogs that never recover. Also one has to wonder how emerging economy future returns may pan out when everyone is on one side of the ship spruking “China and India will save us.”

People were envisioning similar prospects about dot coms prior to their collapse. Then about health in the early 2000’s then with commodities in 08 with inflation and dont forget the peak oil doomers when oil was $140 a barrel.
Now we have the end of fiat money doomers hence my big investments in the British pound in USD last year. I remember everyone buying gold running into their bomb shelters and getting rid of cash as fast as they could
I actually bght some Euros last session as i’m planning to buy some European investments if this PIGS situation causes more panic.

To be honest I think the person who gets it right alot is Greg. He should be on CNBC instead of alot of the idiots on there. If I have that channel on I usually turn the sound off lol. Greg have you thought about writing a newsletter, I think you’d make a mint

Remember above is not advice, only commentary – seek advice/info from a competent financial advisor

Over the last 10 years, its remarkable how poor shareholder returns have been in Health. Constant eps/profit growth for numerous companies and sideways moving charts due to inflated expectations at the origination (analogous to Walmart).
The lost decade for healthcare…considering demographics and how much future monies government will allocate, one could reasonably conclude more auspicious returns.

Greg have you thought of or have entered the environment sector ?
Seems to be lots of future growth but with concomitant lack of selection and earnings history.

Remember above is not advice, only commentary – seek advice/info from a competent financial advisor

BTW what is a prozac filter? and in europe? I’m abit lost on that one.