Comments on: ASX All Ordinaries candlestick charts and trends. http://www.shareswatch.com.au/blog/stockmarket/asx-all-ordinaries-candlestick-charts-and-trends/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=asx-all-ordinaries-candlestick-charts-and-trends Views about the Australian stock market, shares, the economy, investing, politics and world events. Fri, 10 Feb 2012 09:23:14 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v= By: Anon http://www.shareswatch.com.au/blog/stockmarket/asx-all-ordinaries-candlestick-charts-and-trends/#comment-4355 Anon Sat, 22 May 2010 06:16:46 +0000 http://www.shareswatch.com.au/blog/?p=2511#comment-4355 "This opens the chance to buy selected stocks which have been trashed in the stampede, and with the overall market trading on a prospective price-earnings ratio of 11.4 times against the long-term average of 14 times, the equity market is cheap." http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/opinion/market-correction-will-be-a-buying-opportunity/story-e6frg9if-1225869811232 Earnings now below historical average...market is not expensive here. Unfortunately we cant expect to get credit crisis 08 prices all the time. If you wait for those under priced extremes, you will be waiting a very long time! I've seen value managers underperform (from their investor letters) for 10+ years waiting for prices to fall back to ultra-bargain levels. 11.4 - ~8.77% cash rate - 4.50% ~94% Margin of Safety over the cash rate...Benjamin Graham would be happy ;) None of my posts constitute financial advice – so do not act on it in that manner. Its just chit chat. Always see a financial advisor for decision making / advice / info. “This opens the chance to buy selected stocks which have been trashed in the stampede, and with the overall market trading on a prospective price-earnings ratio of 11.4 times against the long-term average of 14 times, the equity market is cheap.”

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/opinion/market-correction-will-be-a-buying-opportunity/story-e6frg9if-1225869811232

Earnings now below historical average…market is not expensive here. Unfortunately we cant expect to get credit crisis 08 prices all the time. If you wait for those under priced extremes, you will be waiting a very long time! I’ve seen value managers underperform (from their investor letters) for 10+ years waiting for prices to fall back to ultra-bargain levels.

11.4 -- ~8.77%
cash rate -- 4.50%

~94% Margin of Safety over the cash rate…Benjamin Graham would be happy ;)

None of my posts constitute financial advice – so do not act on it in that manner. Its just chit chat. Always see a financial advisor for decision making / advice / info.

]]> By: Anon http://www.shareswatch.com.au/blog/stockmarket/asx-all-ordinaries-candlestick-charts-and-trends/#comment-4351 Anon Sat, 22 May 2010 03:45:17 +0000 http://www.shareswatch.com.au/blog/?p=2511#comment-4351 Bullish signs for financials: "“We are DONE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE INVESTING IN LARGE, COMPLICATED FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS. By “investing”, I mean taking long positions with the view of holding for 9-24 months based on some view of normalized earnings and a forecast of what will happen over the next several years. As the war on speculators, banks (indeed entire financial system) rages on, one big US hedge fund has had enough. Writing to investors, the fund says it’s now too risky to invest in large financial institutions for anything other than the short-term." http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/05/20/237401/we-are-done-with-financials/ I am overweight financials. Big rally comming for the banks over the next 12 months. Historically financials tend to outperform after a major credit crisis in the proceeding decade. Its enevitable that loan losses/provisioning will/continue to fall...there is no need for credit growth in order to fuel bank earnings...less provisioning will do that. None of my posts constitute financial advice – so do not act on it in that manner. Its just chit chat. Always see a financial advisor for decision making / advice / info. Bullish signs for financials:

““We are DONE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE INVESTING IN LARGE, COMPLICATED FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS. By “investing”, I mean taking long positions with the view of holding for 9-24 months based on some view of normalized earnings and a forecast of what will happen over the next several years.

As the war on speculators, banks (indeed entire financial system) rages on, one big US hedge fund has had enough.

Writing to investors, the fund says it’s now too risky to invest in large financial institutions for anything other than the short-term.”

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/05/20/237401/we-are-done-with-financials/

I am overweight financials. Big rally comming for the banks over the next 12 months. Historically financials tend to outperform after a major credit crisis in the proceeding decade. Its enevitable that loan losses/provisioning will/continue to fall…there is no need for credit growth in order to fuel bank earnings…less provisioning will do that.

None of my posts constitute financial advice – so do not act on it in that manner. Its just chit chat. Always see a financial advisor for decision making / advice / info.

]]> By: Anon http://www.shareswatch.com.au/blog/stockmarket/asx-all-ordinaries-candlestick-charts-and-trends/#comment-4350 Anon Sat, 22 May 2010 03:37:56 +0000 http://www.shareswatch.com.au/blog/?p=2511#comment-4350 Some contrarian buying signals: Sell Anything http://pragcap.com/richard-russell-sell-anything Fear of a Double Dip could cause one http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/16/business/16view.html 2010's coming stock market crash: 1987 all over again http://money.cnn.com/2010/05/17/magazines/fortune/2010.crash.1987.again.fortune/index.htm None of my posts constitute financial advice – so do not act on it in that manner. Its just chit chat. Always see a financial advisor for decision making / advice / info. Some contrarian buying signals:

Sell Anything
http://pragcap.com/richard-russell-sell-anything

Fear of a Double Dip could cause one
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/16/business/16view.html

2010′s coming stock market crash: 1987 all over again
http://money.cnn.com/2010/05/17/magazines/fortune/2010.crash.1987.again.fortune/index.htm

None of my posts constitute financial advice – so do not act on it in that manner. Its just chit chat. Always see a financial advisor for decision making / advice / info.

]]> By: Anon http://www.shareswatch.com.au/blog/stockmarket/asx-all-ordinaries-candlestick-charts-and-trends/#comment-4349 Anon Sat, 22 May 2010 02:42:48 +0000 http://www.shareswatch.com.au/blog/?p=2511#comment-4349 Thought this was a great passage by Roger on Market Timing: "Cliché 2: Its ‘Time in the market’ not ‘Timing the market’ that leads to success. Another cliché that comes to mind is the idea that time in the market is the key to success rather than timing. At the outset, let me state that I don’t believe that timing the market or share prices works. Nor do I believe that time in the market works always, and if it sometimes does, the time can be so long that the returns are meaningless. Take for example the investor who purchased shares in Macquarie Bank at $90 some years ago; they are still waiting for a positive return. Or what about the investor who bought shares in Great Southern Plantation when the company listed? No chance of a positive return at all. If you purchased shares in Qantas or Telstra ten years ago, you would now have an investment with less value than you what commenced with. Time in the market is no good if you buy poorly performing businesses or pay prices that are far above the intrinsic value of a company. For the seventeen years bound by 1964 and 1981 the Dow Jones rose just 1/10th of one percent. Time, it seems, was not the friend of the merely patient investor. I can show you equally long periods of low returns on the Australian market too. The point however is that time is only the friend of the investor who buys wonderful businesses at large discounts to intrinsic value. Otherwise, time is an enemy that steals returns just as surely as it steals a great day. Don’t use time then as a band-aid to heal your investing mistakes. Stick to A1 businesses bought at discounts to intrinsic value and time will be your friend. So what are the businesses that time has befriended the most? What businesses have been increasing in intrinsic value the most over the last three, five or ten years?" http://blog.rogermontgomery.com/who-has-time-favoured-the-most/ None of my posts constitute financial advice – so do not act on it in that manner. Its just chit chat. Always see a financial advisor for decision making / advice / info. Thought this was a great passage by Roger on Market Timing:

“Cliché 2: Its ‘Time in the market’ not ‘Timing the market’ that leads to success.

Another cliché that comes to mind is the idea that time in the market is the key to success rather than timing. At the outset, let me state that I don’t believe that timing the market or share prices works. Nor do I believe that time in the market works always, and if it sometimes does, the time can be so long that the returns are meaningless. Take for example the investor who purchased shares in Macquarie Bank at $90 some years ago; they are still waiting for a positive return. Or what about the investor who bought shares in Great Southern Plantation when the company listed? No chance of a positive return at all. If you purchased shares in Qantas or Telstra ten years ago, you would now have an investment with less value than you what commenced with.

Time in the market is no good if you buy poorly performing businesses or pay prices that are far above the intrinsic value of a company. For the seventeen years bound by 1964 and 1981 the Dow Jones rose just 1/10th of one percent. Time, it seems, was not the friend of the merely patient investor. I can show you equally long periods of low returns on the Australian market too.

The point however is that time is only the friend of the investor who buys wonderful businesses at large discounts to intrinsic value. Otherwise, time is an enemy that steals returns just as surely as it steals a great day.

Don’t use time then as a band-aid to heal your investing mistakes. Stick to A1 businesses bought at discounts to intrinsic value and time will be your friend. So what are the businesses that time has befriended the most? What businesses have been increasing in intrinsic value the most over the last three, five or ten years?”

http://blog.rogermontgomery.com/who-has-time-favoured-the-most/

None of my posts constitute financial advice – so do not act on it in that manner. Its just chit chat. Always see a financial advisor for decision making / advice / info.

]]> By: Anon http://www.shareswatch.com.au/blog/stockmarket/asx-all-ordinaries-candlestick-charts-and-trends/#comment-4329 Anon Fri, 21 May 2010 09:17:35 +0000 http://www.shareswatch.com.au/blog/?p=2511#comment-4329 Most people think this is silly, but I think for the moment its clear there an above average correlation here (~70%). You would have done well following this over the last 2 years. Be silly not to use it as indicator (for the moment at least). Correlation may disappear later - who knows. http://www.mrci.com/special/ddji39.php None of my posts constitute financial advice – so do not act on it in that manner. Its just chit chat. Always see a financial advisor for decision making / advice / info. Most people think this is silly, but I think for the moment its clear there an above average correlation here (~70%). You would have done well following this over the last 2 years. Be silly not to use it as indicator (for the moment at least).
Correlation may disappear later -- who knows.

http://www.mrci.com/special/ddji39.php

None of my posts constitute financial advice – so do not act on it in that manner. Its just chit chat. Always see a financial advisor for decision making / advice / info.

]]> By: Greg Atkinson http://www.shareswatch.com.au/blog/stockmarket/asx-all-ordinaries-candlestick-charts-and-trends/#comment-4307 Greg Atkinson Fri, 21 May 2010 02:40:42 +0000 http://www.shareswatch.com.au/blog/?p=2511#comment-4307 Anon I have just been adding a little to stocks I like with the view that I won't see a return for 2-3 years out, except for dividends. I am not in the mood for taking large bites out of the market yet. Anon I have just been adding a little to stocks I like with the view that I won’t see a return for 2-3 years out, except for dividends.

I am not in the mood for taking large bites out of the market yet.

]]> By: Ned S http://www.shareswatch.com.au/blog/stockmarket/asx-all-ordinaries-candlestick-charts-and-trends/#comment-4306 Ned S Fri, 21 May 2010 02:34:19 +0000 http://www.shareswatch.com.au/blog/?p=2511#comment-4306 My concern would be that the markets could still be in for a pretty torrid month yet - Until the G20 maybe? - When the big UK and US banks might really be able to say they've figured out what Merkel is up to and just how it may or may not affect their longer term profitability. Just a thought from an interested observer. My concern would be that the markets could still be in for a pretty torrid month yet -- Until the G20 maybe? -- When the big UK and US banks might really be able to say they’ve figured out what Merkel is up to and just how it may or may not affect their longer term profitability.

Just a thought from an interested observer.

]]> By: Ned S http://www.shareswatch.com.au/blog/stockmarket/asx-all-ordinaries-candlestick-charts-and-trends/#comment-4305 Ned S Fri, 21 May 2010 02:18:54 +0000 http://www.shareswatch.com.au/blog/?p=2511#comment-4305 Debt just doesn't seem to concern Henry and co Greg (for better or worse) - As their line seems to be that we need it to keep developing. (Can't really argue with that given our low rate of saving - Albeit that an issue a chap a bit smarter than Swanny might have given a bit of thought!) But irrespective, their big concern would still be not being able to attract credit I guess? Debt just doesn’t seem to concern Henry and co Greg (for better or worse) -- As their line seems to be that we need it to keep developing. (Can’t really argue with that given our low rate of saving -- Albeit that an issue a chap a bit smarter than Swanny might have given a bit of thought!)

But irrespective, their big concern would still be not being able to attract credit I guess?

]]> By: Anon http://www.shareswatch.com.au/blog/stockmarket/asx-all-ordinaries-candlestick-charts-and-trends/#comment-4303 Anon Fri, 21 May 2010 02:09:02 +0000 http://www.shareswatch.com.au/blog/?p=2511#comment-4303 Well i'm done...set my longterm stuff up...stopped at ~40% invested. We might go lower but that would just be the last capitulation...no point trying to guess that! Risk 5%, Reward 20%...no brainer imo! (provided you dont buy dogs and overvalued pieces of crap of course) Greg have you loaded up or are you still sitting on your hands? None of my posts constitute financial advice – so do not act on it in that manner. Its just chit chat. Always see a financial advisor for decision making / advice / info. Well i’m done…set my longterm stuff up…stopped at ~40% invested. We might go lower but that would just be the last capitulation…no point trying to guess that! Risk 5%, Reward 20%…no brainer imo! (provided you dont buy dogs and overvalued pieces of crap of course)

Greg have you loaded up or are you still sitting on your hands?

None of my posts constitute financial advice – so do not act on it in that manner. Its just chit chat. Always see a financial advisor for decision making / advice / info.

]]> By: Greg Atkinson http://www.shareswatch.com.au/blog/stockmarket/asx-all-ordinaries-candlestick-charts-and-trends/#comment-4301 Greg Atkinson Fri, 21 May 2010 01:54:36 +0000 http://www.shareswatch.com.au/blog/?p=2511#comment-4301 Well at times like this having assets in Japan does not look that silly after all. The Yen has jumped 15% higher against the AUD during this mess. As for Oz, the problem with the debt is that a) it is mostly owed offshore and b) Australia is sliding further into debt and our balance of trade is not helping. On top of that, households in Oz carry a lot of debt. But I guess the miners won't mind seeing a weaker Australian dollar..good news for exporters. Well at times like this having assets in Japan does not look that silly after all. The Yen has jumped 15% higher against the AUD during this mess.

As for Oz, the problem with the debt is that a) it is mostly owed offshore and b) Australia is sliding further into debt and our balance of trade is not helping.

On top of that, households in Oz carry a lot of debt.

But I guess the miners won’t mind seeing a weaker Australian dollar..good news for exporters.

]]> By: Anon http://www.shareswatch.com.au/blog/stockmarket/asx-all-ordinaries-candlestick-charts-and-trends/#comment-4300 Anon Fri, 21 May 2010 01:24:03 +0000 http://www.shareswatch.com.au/blog/?p=2511#comment-4300 Yep Ned, they wont drop rates...and fund managers can only short a currency for so long with a negative carry cost! No to mention our country has one of the lowest government debt to gdp ratios in the world. Could be huge short covering rally now with the RBA argubaly comming in on market and buying. None of my posts constitute financial advice – so do not act on it in that manner. Its just chit chat. Always see a financial advisor for decision making / advice / info. Yep Ned, they wont drop rates…and fund managers can only short a currency for so long with a negative carry cost! No to mention our country has one of the lowest government debt to gdp ratios in the world.
Could be huge short covering rally now with the RBA argubaly comming in on market and buying.

None of my posts constitute financial advice – so do not act on it in that manner. Its just chit chat. Always see a financial advisor for decision making / advice / info.

]]> By: Anon http://www.shareswatch.com.au/blog/stockmarket/asx-all-ordinaries-candlestick-charts-and-trends/#comment-4299 Anon Fri, 21 May 2010 01:22:14 +0000 http://www.shareswatch.com.au/blog/?p=2511#comment-4299 "AUD bottoming unwinding hedges." Ahh that explains it...i was seeing some huge buying occuring at support...on the news wires it says the RBA might have been defending the AUD. None of my posts constitute financial advice – so do not act on it in that manner. Its just chit chat. Always see a financial advisor for decision making / advice / info. “AUD bottoming unwinding hedges.”

Ahh that explains it…i was seeing some huge buying occuring at support…on the news wires it says the RBA might have been defending the AUD.

None of my posts constitute financial advice – so do not act on it in that manner. Its just chit chat. Always see a financial advisor for decision making / advice / info.

]]> By: Ned S http://www.shareswatch.com.au/blog/stockmarket/asx-all-ordinaries-candlestick-charts-and-trends/#comment-4298 Ned S Fri, 21 May 2010 01:21:53 +0000 http://www.shareswatch.com.au/blog/?p=2511#comment-4298 There's lots of issues of course. But certainly one big one is the possibly of another credit crisis. In that regard, wouldn't the RBA be correct to keep it's rate higher than others to attract overseas funds? Plus stabilise the AUD. There’s lots of issues of course. But certainly one big one is the possibly of another credit crisis. In that regard, wouldn’t the RBA be correct to keep it’s rate higher than others to attract overseas funds? Plus stabilise the AUD.

]]> By: Anon http://www.shareswatch.com.au/blog/stockmarket/asx-all-ordinaries-candlestick-charts-and-trends/#comment-4297 Anon Fri, 21 May 2010 00:16:15 +0000 http://www.shareswatch.com.au/blog/?p=2511#comment-4297 I'm seeing lots of funds moving into the market here. Hedgies were loading on the djia last night aswell. When the snap back occurs it will be fast and viscous. None of my posts constitute financial advice – so do not act on it in that manner. Its just chit chat. Always see a financial advisor for decision making / advice / info. I’m seeing lots of funds moving into the market here. Hedgies were loading on the djia last night aswell.
When the snap back occurs it will be fast and viscous.

None of my posts constitute financial advice – so do not act on it in that manner. Its just chit chat. Always see a financial advisor for decision making / advice / info.

]]> By: Anon http://www.shareswatch.com.au/blog/stockmarket/asx-all-ordinaries-candlestick-charts-and-trends/#comment-4296 Anon Fri, 21 May 2010 00:05:15 +0000 http://www.shareswatch.com.au/blog/?p=2511#comment-4296 Gonna wait till XAO is down 180+ before loading. None of my posts constitute financial advice – so do not act on it in that manner. Its just chit chat. Always see a financial advisor for decision making / advice / info. Gonna wait till XAO is down 180+ before loading.

None of my posts constitute financial advice – so do not act on it in that manner. Its just chit chat. Always see a financial advisor for decision making / advice / info.

]]> By: Anon http://www.shareswatch.com.au/blog/stockmarket/asx-all-ordinaries-candlestick-charts-and-trends/#comment-4294 Anon Thu, 20 May 2010 23:54:26 +0000 http://www.shareswatch.com.au/blog/?p=2511#comment-4294 AUD bottoming unwinding hedges. None of my posts constitute financial advice – so do not act on it in that manner. Its just chit chat. Always see a financial advisor for decision making / advice / info. AUD bottoming unwinding hedges.

None of my posts constitute financial advice – so do not act on it in that manner. Its just chit chat. Always see a financial advisor for decision making / advice / info.

]]> By: Anon http://www.shareswatch.com.au/blog/stockmarket/asx-all-ordinaries-candlestick-charts-and-trends/#comment-4293 Anon Thu, 20 May 2010 23:18:48 +0000 http://www.shareswatch.com.au/blog/?p=2511#comment-4293 Have hedged AUD exposure...its just utter panic...I am going to seriously load up when the dust settles. None of my posts constitute financial advice – so do not act on it in that manner. Its just chit chat. Always see a financial advisor for decision making / advice / info. Have hedged AUD exposure…its just utter panic…I am going to seriously load up when the dust settles.

None of my posts constitute financial advice – so do not act on it in that manner. Its just chit chat. Always see a financial advisor for decision making / advice / info.

]]> By: Anon http://www.shareswatch.com.au/blog/stockmarket/asx-all-ordinaries-candlestick-charts-and-trends/#comment-4280 Anon Thu, 20 May 2010 15:36:10 +0000 http://www.shareswatch.com.au/blog/?p=2511#comment-4280 Shorting the USD and buying Euros for a long term play. Support was VERY STRONG at late 08 levels. USD to continue lose monetary policy with low interest rates (fueling carry trade) and little current inflationary pressures. None of my posts constitute financial advice – so do not act on it in that manner. Its just chit chat. Always see a financial advisor for decision making / advice / info. Shorting the USD and buying Euros for a long term play. Support was VERY STRONG at late 08 levels. USD to continue lose monetary policy with low interest rates (fueling carry trade) and little current inflationary pressures.

None of my posts constitute financial advice – so do not act on it in that manner. Its just chit chat. Always see a financial advisor for decision making / advice / info.

]]> By: Anon http://www.shareswatch.com.au/blog/stockmarket/asx-all-ordinaries-candlestick-charts-and-trends/#comment-4279 Anon Thu, 20 May 2010 15:15:08 +0000 http://www.shareswatch.com.au/blog/?p=2511#comment-4279 Bought Citigroup. Buy when blood is on the streets...and i'm seeing blood! Newbies are trying to short the AUD and short stocks. Still could be more downside so i'm only 10% long. None of my posts constitute financial advice – so do not act on it in that manner. Its just chit chat. Always see a financial advisor for decision making / advice / info. Bought Citigroup.

Buy when blood is on the streets…and i’m seeing blood!
Newbies are trying to short the AUD and short stocks.
Still could be more downside so i’m only 10% long.

None of my posts constitute financial advice – so do not act on it in that manner. Its just chit chat. Always see a financial advisor for decision making / advice / info.

]]> By: Anon http://www.shareswatch.com.au/blog/stockmarket/asx-all-ordinaries-candlestick-charts-and-trends/#comment-4252 Anon Wed, 19 May 2010 22:33:56 +0000 http://www.shareswatch.com.au/blog/?p=2511#comment-4252 "My routine now is to look at what happened in Europe & the U.S overnight and if it looks ugly, I try not to watch the Australian stock market during the day" lol good plan, no point going thru the pain twice! "I must say Rudd and Swan have the worst market timing skills on the planet. What a time to be talking about raising taxes on miners and suggesting more money needs to got into Super. Doh!" Well at least Wayne Swans wife is arguably a good market timer re: her selldown of mining shares ;) None of my posts constitute financial advice – so do not act on it in that manner. Its just chit chat. Always see a financial advisor for decision making / advice / info. “My routine now is to look at what happened in Europe & the U.S overnight and if it looks ugly, I try not to watch the Australian stock market during the day”

lol good plan, no point going thru the pain twice!

“I must say Rudd and Swan have the worst market timing skills on the planet. What a time to be talking about raising taxes on miners and suggesting more money needs to got into Super. Doh!”

Well at least Wayne Swans wife is arguably a good market timer re: her selldown of mining shares ;)

None of my posts constitute financial advice – so do not act on it in that manner. Its just chit chat. Always see a financial advisor for decision making / advice / info.

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