I rkn we could get there…altho i’m pretty bad at picking tops, so knowing me i’ll sell out too early again!
I’m not sure why i sold out at too early last time…i wasn’t willing to short, yet I was willing to sell out…didn’t make sense…my technical models said we were going higher too.

Rule to self: dont sell, unless you are willing to short the stocks you are dumping

None of my posts constitute financial advice – so do not act on it in that manner. Its just chit chat. Always see a financial advisor for decision making / advice / info.

Don’t get me wrong though -- I think it’s great! And can only hope it’s true. As indicated previously, I’ll probably start to feel considerably more comfortable with the state of the world when the Djia is bouncing around between 12,000 and 12,500. And if it’s only because central banks have managed to get a bit of inflation happening, that could be OK as well -- At least it will have gotten a bit more debt out of the system as I understand things?

It’s the main reason I stay out of highly liquid stuff like stocks I guess? I’ve noticed that I have an uncanny ability to be WRONG! So it’s best that I’m not exposed to the temptation act on that recurring wrongness easily.

Quite seriously, I was betting black at a casino one night -- The run went red. I started to throw everything I had at it on the old double up theory -- Ran out of ammo on about the 4th red maybe is my recollection? (But certainly before the table limit nailed me which seemed like some consolation at the tme.) So wandered off. But came back later to see how I might have made out if my pockets had been a bit deeper and the table unlimitted. The run of reds was SO long and the shock at seeing such a highly improbable statistical event SO deep, that I never since have been able to genuinely recollect if it was 11 or 13 of them that I counted?

Lesson: Ned and high liquidity do not happy bedfellows make!

Good point…you do have to be nimble in the stock market atm.

The VIX looks like its in a downtrend, so it appears volatility may decrease going forwards.

None of my posts constitute financial advice – so do not act on it in that manner. Its just chit chat. Always see a financial advisor for decision making / advice / info.

Might be good conditions if you’re nimble enough. Not necessarily so good for Super. It is that turbulence I am not liking at the moment.

Is it?
The XAO has bounced almost 8% from the intraday lows a few weeks back. Thats not a bad performance? Granted this could be a dead cat and we may have some turbulence on this rise, but valuations still look compelling to me on certain selected stocks.

Heres some commentary I found useful:
“DORFMAN: I think people need a sense of what market history contains. Normally you have three sell-offs a year on average of 5 percent or more and one of 10 percent or more. In fact a sell-off of 10 percent or more happens on average once every 11 months. So I see these really as fitting the normal historical pattern. ”

“DORFMAN: I think the stock will advance because I think it will exceed investors` expectations. That`s the name of the game and expectations right now are very low. ”

John Dorfman of Thunderstorm Capital

None of my posts constitute financial advice – so do not act on it in that manner. Its just chit chat. Always see a financial advisor for decision making / advice / info.

I was reading somewhere that they reckon bailing out Greece has only bought them 3 years…

http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/stories/s2923818.htm

It’s just general stuff on where the world is at and where it could go.

What might make this predictable, now that a million is perceived as the old $100K?

Yes, when one digs around in old closets, some skeletons can certainly fall out. Talking about brekkie, I think I’ll have my panadol sunny side up!

In the previous family history (on my mother’s side) the author relates how grandma had a roll in the hay with one of Victoria and Albert’s sons. I buy every copy of the book I can find, because the family was so outraged by skeletons in the closet that John changed each successive edition… names and all…! Picked up a fourth edition in London last year (Antiq Books).
My ma (89) is the last living person who can relate who each character actually is… My grandmother was the subject of an infamous Austraia-wide scandal circa 1915, reported in the Melbourne Truth. Her ’15 minutes of fame’ apparently lasted more than the usual quarter hour; kept the scandal-rag busy for months… !!~

I must get back on topic. You have my permission to erase this within 24 hours, Greg!~

I DID love Frank Hardy’s “Power Without Glory” though -- Fully expect I have a copy here somewhere? And if so, will drag it out for a reread. It WAS a great yarn! (Well, I reckoned it was anyway -- All that throwback background on where the old buggers REALLY came from! )

Arhggg … I do love grog – How can they keep the tax on it SO cheap?

“He carried a nickel-plated revolver” -- Remember getting my lesson at about 18 from my mum’s dad in his backyard about how I should use his snub nose 22 if I should ever be in Sydney’s Cross and feel so inclined … It wasn’t nickel plated though -- Ah, the drawbacks of being working class!

Arhggg … I do love grog – How can they keep the tax on it SO cheap?

Moi aussi… (which I’ve overused to excess overseas.) Nice half-bottle of Shiraz.

I was quite amused to discover I have much in common with both Twiggy Forrest* and Warren Buffett. Neither traded in their old cars or their wives when they became wealthy… not that I’m in their league, mine dew!!!!!~

The Montreal Kid sent me a mathematical breakdown which was superior to anything I might have produced at 24… but which excluded a long list of short-and-long-term costs. In Canada, you can bet that if the strata costs are low, the future repair bills will be immense! Not uncommon to be hit with a $25K bill for one apartment, let alone eight. Hope I’ve scared him spitless.

What I like about property is that I’m in control of most of the variables, _IF_ I’ve done my homework. Did my homework diligently in the share market and _still_ got busted. This has _never_ happened in property, since I bought my first block back in ’68. I read a really interesting little piece in The West today. Ripped it out. Must find it… .

* Twiggy’s (FMG) great great uncle Alexander sold my granddad and great uncles their five farming properties around 1912 -- 1915; after they had sold their Kalgoorlie wine bar. My granddad Charlie’s role was bouncer, in the very late 1800s. He carried a nickel-plated revolver, but apparently never had to produce it after a knockout in a bar fight. Writing the family history now, before _everyone_ has passed on… .

Arhggg … I do love grog – How can they keep the tax on it SO cheap?

In his latest letter, published last night, he says the stockmarket has lost its mind. “Finally it’s happening. The poor thing is falling apart.” Russell is referring to the fact that the market is falling in the face of persistent optimism about the US economy. He says you should believe the market, not the economists.

“It’s been hard, and it’s hard to tell my subscribers that this market is topping out and that you should be out of stocks. So, if you are still in the market, sell your common stocks (not the golds) and get out. I don’t care how good or how blue-chip your stocks are, when the bear takes over, he sinks his claws into the throats of all the boys and girls. Declining price/earnings in the bear market alone will cost you, and P/E ratios are now dangerously over 20.” ”

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/stockmarket-bear-Dow-pd20100526-5SSE8?OpenDocument

Another Richard Russell Call:

April 2007:

“We saw something that is extremely rare, in fact I can’t remember ever having seen this before. What I’m referring to is that on those two dates all three Dow Jones Averages Industrials, Transports and Utilities — closed at simultaneous historic highs. To me, a fellow steeped in Dow Theory for over half a century, this was like a clap of thunder… My take on the situation is that the stock market (and the Dow Theory) told us that an unprecedented world boom lies ahead.”

None of my posts constitute financial advice – so do not act on it in that manner. Its just chit chat. Always see a financial advisor for decision making / advice / info.

“They seek him here; They seek him there; They seek him everywhere” -- Such was it said about The Scarlet PimperValue …

Arhggg … I do love grog -- How can they keep the tax on it SO cheap?

It all seems to have worked out well!

Don’t mind me -- I’ve been busy breaching that 250 ml rule again!