From 21st Sept.

NAM – ~38c down ~9%

BPT – ~70c down ~6%

AWE – ~1.70 down ~35%

Even though I dont hold BPT or NAM currently, those were my picks at the time as opposed to AWE. Importantly, downside risk was alot less during the period. You can’t make money if you keep losing capital.

Thank Allah, I didn’t buy AWE at the levels back then. Something didn’t look right and I think the company shareprice speaks a thousand words.
This is the problem with Oil price and then company risk. Perhaps things will improve in time and things were overdone, but it doesn’t look like it atm unfortunately
I’m sure I was wrong many times with stocks i’ve selected (and am trying to find picks now that went really bad), but I guess its good to go back and see if your stock selection methods held up well during corrections (most important litmus test).

All posts by this poster is not financial advice or a reccomendation to do something. Can change my mind quickly on any decision I make, given markets always change. Have positions in instruments discussed unless otherwise indicated.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GGScU5ESei4&feature=player_embedded

None of my posts constitute financial advice – so do not act on it in that manner. Its just chit chat. Always see a financial advisor for decision making / advice / info.

I am also a fan of AWE because I reckon we will eventually fall back in love with oil and prices will head up again. But please don’t take anything I say as a stock tip, I merely toss up ideas for people to think about. (and remember, I bought BNB shares!)

The subsidy issue may well mean the stock may still rise even if oil doesn’t.

Good point. Freakin gubbermints and dere meddlin’!!

Disclaimer: Don’t take my fondness of AWE to mean anything

They are addicted to dilution.
Tbh, i’m not happy with BPT and am looking at getting out of this possibly in a couple of months. This investment for me has been fruitless and useless. I got my 2c special dividend, they should have used that to buy back the 3 katrillion shares they issued.

“Jim Rogers…how old was that comment of his? Because biofuels are yesterdays bubble. They could definitely rise again, but you need the price of oil to escalate first.”

I think it was in June 2009. Here it is in full:
“Natural gas is cheaper than oil right now, but I own them all. If you want to buy crude, you should probably buy cotton. Because all farmers in the US are planting corn to turn into energy. That means they are not going to plant any cotton. The best way to play crude oil is to buy cotton.

Right now, there are huge subsidies around the world for farmers to plant corn, maize, for instance, so that they can be converted into energy. If energy prices go higher, there will be even more of that.

If everybody plants his fields with soya, corn or palm oil to turn it into oil or energy then no one is going to plant cotton.”

The subsidy issue may well mean the stock may still rise even if oil doesn’t.

Regarding AWE I will definitely research this tonight or tommorrow. I need to slowly increase my commodities exposure over the next 12-18 months as I am very underweight in this area (5% of my portfolio).

The problem with them, from my understanding is that they need oil price to be pretty high, because they tend to drill offshore (or try to). And it is more expensive than land drilling.

They have some potential though. BPT have been around a long time. I was digging through some old documents of my grandmothers and found some old BPT shares (and pamphlets).

Surprise surprise the shares are worth slightly less today than they were then (1960’s or 70’s, can’t remember exactly).

I have a slight sentimental attachment to BPT, but that’s all. All my investments in BPT in the past have been pretty fruitless.

…

Jim Rogers…how old was that comment of his? Because biofuels are yesterdays bubble. They could definitely rise again, but you need the price of oil to escalate first.

He makes some sense with his cotton claim, but it does sound like a long shot. In recessionary times surely cotton demand will slow a bit? People put off clothes purchases for a while? Clothes retailers get pretty mashed up in recessions.

…

Incidentally I still like AWE.
At the moment it is the closest thing I would have to a long-term hold. I like them because they have their fingers in every pie, both oil and gas. Plus, they are dead keen on exploration, which is a plus if you believe there will be a supply glut. They just seem to be switched on I think (hope I’m not sorely mistaken there).

I think for oil plays Naomi Cotton (NAM) is my favourite. Its priced low relative to NTA, director loading up and is a low cost producer. Additionally, seasonality points to higher cotton prices in NOV.
Jim Rogers metioned cotton as an alternative oil play:
“If you want to buy crude, you should probably buy cotton. Because all farmers in the US are planting corn to turn into energy. That means they are not going to plant any cotton. The best way to play crude oil is to buy cotton.”

I don’t mind AWE as a company and I think they have some potential. I like that they are actively exploring whilst other companies may be in consolidation mode.

It may be that a global downturn in exploration (thanks to low oil price) may cause some rather interesting supply problems later on.