Comments on: Stockwatch: QBE Insurance Group Limited (QBE)

By: Plornt

Plornt — Mon, 19 Dec 2011 07:49:19 +0000

Yes, but looks like they might turn if my system is correct, but the upside might only be 20-30% from here, so given the downside risk i’m reluctant to enter given there are so many better value scenarios out there. If I were to enter i’d place otm puts below 12$; maybe double the puts to common ratio so that if a tail risk event occurs you won’t get wiped out.

All posts by this poster is not financial advice or a reccomendation to do something. Can change my mind quickly on any decision I make, given markets always change. Have positions in instruments discussed unless otherwise indicated.

By: Greg Atkinson

Greg Atkinson — Mon, 19 Dec 2011 07:16:33 +0000

QBE shares have been getting hammered along with the market in general but they have been hit especially hard as tends to be the case with this stock. At just above $13 they are now at a level last seen around 2004. Ouch!

Looks like Buffet was right.

By: Plornt

Plornt — Mon, 19 Dec 2011 07:02:13 +0000

Qbe share price since post: 24.17 (intrahighs) on Sep 21; down more than 55% as of 19/12/2011.
Been wrong a lot though, so this was just dumb luck.

System firing long QBE. I am not in this stock and do not intend to take a position.

By: Plornt

Plornt — Sat, 07 Aug 2010 06:09:37 +0000

“Insurance companies have historically done very poorly during high inflationary periods.
Look at insurance share price performance in the 70’s – it wasn’t pretty. I guess this is why Buffet mentioned “the party was over” for insurance a couple of years ago.”

I am actually thinking of shorting QBE on significant strength and think it will do poorly over the next few years at best flat. It maybe a good company but good companies can still lose 50-70% in bad times, look at Wells Fargo for example.

Qbe share price since post: ~17$ or down 30%.

By: Anon

Anon — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 11:50:44 +0000

Insurance companies have historically done very poorly during high inflationary periods.

http://capital-flow-analysis.com/capital-flow-watch/what-inflation-does-to-the-insurance-industry.html

Look at insurance share price performance in the 70′s -- it wasn’t pretty. I guess this is why Buffet mentioned “the party was over” for insurance a couple of years ago.