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Australian stock market investing, ASX charts, analysis & market forecasts.

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Entries Tagged as 'bubble'

Australian Stock Market Outlook & Forecast for 2017

April 3rd, 2017 · 60 Comments

Each year I outline how I think the Australian Stock Market might fare bearing in mind that my forecast, like all forecasts, is actually a calculated guesstimate – at best. None of us know with any certainty how the financial markets will ride out the year and it’s probably a safe assumption that anyone that implies that they do is either trying to sell you a book or website subscription. But a forecast can be a useful planning exercise even if it simply makes us think of the factors that might move the markets. So once again I will go out on a limb and add my forecast to the galaxy of other forecasts.

Trump, resources and an ASX market rally

December 20th, 2016 · 6 Comments

The U.S. election result has thrown another Brexit event at the markets and once again the markets have done and are doing the opposite of what many experts predicted. I did not focus on the U.S, election in too much detail and expected any post election rally or sell-off to be short-lived. However just as the sky never fell when voters in the U.K. decided to leave the European Union it’s has remained in place after the surprising win by Donald Trump. The biggest surprise though is that the so called “Trump Rally” keeps on going and so far, the Australian stock market seems to be following the lead and since early November has staged a fairly strong rally also.

U.S. Market: Sell Off Coming!

June 17th, 2016 · No Comments

This “distortion” between “risk” and “return” has created a “bubble” effect in all global equity classes. I informed my subscribers to exit the SPX on November 25th, 2014 and to enter cash. Their equity risk exposure was reduced to zero. Momentum oscillators are now extremely overbought and are very clearly trending bearish.  I wait for confirmation before entering any new long SDS and long VXX positions.

Global Economics, Quantitative Easing and Equities

August 13th, 2015 · 5 Comments

A take on the global economy and equities markets that paints a simple and clear pictures I think. The DJIA index has recorded seven consecutive down days in a row!  These 7 distribution days are a sign that many institutions are taking profits or establishing losses. As we are entering the second half of 2015, financial panic is occurring globally. Currently, this tremendous financial devastation is happening throughout the world.  Stock prices are crashing in China, Europe and soon I feel the United States. Puerto Rico has now defaulted on their debts. Quantitative Easing has been masking the symptom of this endemic disease. The Greek Banks are still frozen and will continue to stay this way; however, the mainstream media is not reporting on this current situation in Greece. There is a limit on weekly withdrawals of 420 Euro per (around US $455).

FY 2014-2015 ASX Charts Review

June 30th, 2015 · 13 Comments

Well another financial year has come to an end and for the Australian stock market it has been a fairly poor FY2014-2015, but if you include dividends an average balanced stocks portfolio could have probably returned 3-4% in dividends which in the era of low interest rates is not too bad. However the reality is that the Australian stock market is under-performing markets in Japan, the US and many in Europe – not to mention Chinese stocks which surged skywards during the past year but now look like they are currently falling back to earth.

The ASX 200 – On a Road to Nowhere

May 8th, 2015 · 20 Comments

This week we have seen the S&P/ASX 200 bounce around quite a bit, but generally speaking the trend of late has been back down towards 5600. This movement has probably surprised some investors especially those who were quite bullish just some weeks ago when the ASX 200 appeared poised to rally past the 6000 level.

U.S. Market: 4 Month Forecast – Gold, Oil, Stocks & Bonds

April 10th, 2015 · 5 Comments

Everyone is looking for the holy grail of the financial market which will tell what will happen next in stocks, commodities, bonds etc… Knowing that the holy grail of trading does not exist I am going to step out on a limb and share my four month stock market forecast along with commodities and bonds.

Shorting the Australian Stock Market, Oil & Soft Commodities

March 17th, 2015 · 16 Comments

So far this year the ASX 200 has been staging a fairly impressive rally having moved from around 5300 points at the start of trading in January to over 5900 in early February. It has since pulled-back a touch but is still up around 10% for the year so there are plenty of reasons to be bullish about the outlook for the market for the rest of the year. However I remain cautious about the outlook for Australian shares and the global economy and maintain my view that a significant correction is not far away.

Australian Stock Market Outlook & Forecast for 2015

January 16th, 2015 · 23 Comments

This year it is going to be tougher than normal to put together a forecast for the Australian stock market simply because we are in the midst of quite a nasty commodities rout. However I been warning for while that a major correction in commodities prices would hit the market so I am going to look through the current turmoil and try to see where the ASX All Ordinaries and S&P/ASX 200 may finish up at the end of the year.

Stock Market Volatility and Weak Global Economic Growth

November 7th, 2014 · 11 Comments

Over the last few weeks I have been simply watching the markets and have not even attempted to analyse the various swings and moves of the ASX All Ordinaries Index and S&P/ASX 200 Index.  Just when I thought I might have been able to make sense out of what was happening, along would come news of the IMF cutting their global growth forecast, more mixed economic news out of China or recently and almost out of nowhere, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) sprung into back action and ramped up its version of Quantitative Easing (QE).

Commodities Prices, the Baltic Dry Index, BHP Billiton & Rio Tinto

June 17th, 2014 · 12 Comments

Recently there has been a lot of focus in the financial media about commodities prices with some commentators for example seemingly surprised how far the iron ore price has fallen. However on this site we have been warning that the days of high commodities prices were coming to an end, so the recent price falls have come as no surprise. In fact the Baltic Dry Index has been warning us what was likely to happen for a long time & also hinting what the stock prices for BHP & RIO were likely to do as well.

Baltic Dry Index, ASX All Ordinaries, Gold & AMEX Charts

September 25th, 2013 · 13 Comments

There is a lot of confusing news & information swirling around regarding the markets these days. Depending on who you listen to either the U.S. economy is recovering or Ben Bernanke is the ultimate asset bubble creator. In China some see the economy in a state of planned transition whereas others (including myself), see it as a command economy fuelled by unsustainable credit growth. Meanwhile in Australia there appears to be some confusion regarding if the mining boom is over or just having a rest?

Has the Australian Economy entered a period of long term decline?

August 13th, 2013 · 22 Comments

There has been a lot of noise about the Australian economy of late due to the federal election campaign, and most likely much of what is talked about by politicians is not worth paying much attention to. For investors the bigger and more important issues are related to if the Australian economy is in long term decline or is the economy simply heading through a short term rough patch.

Charts, Chanos & China – ASX charts & short term outlook

July 3rd, 2013 · 18 Comments

As per the script, finance journalists were engaged in a fierce battle for readers yesterday with most getting very excited about the ASX All Ordinaries and S&P/ASX 200  posting gains of over 2.5%. It was the best day for the market since whenever they exclaimed and the bearish articles they had churned out just a week before were all forgotten.

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