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Australian stock market investing, ASX charts, analysis & market forecasts.

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Key ASX 200 Sector Indices and the Baltic Dry Index

December 22nd, 2015 · 6 Comments

This year it looks like that at best, the Australian stock market will end at around the same level where it finished in 2014. This is certainly a surprise for those who were getting excited back when the ASX 200 was repeatedly testing 6000 during March – May. The major drags on the market have been China and commodities, both of which I have flagged as major risks for a few years.

ASX Blue Chip Stocks – A Time to Buy?

October 1st, 2015 · 4 Comments

There comes a point during any major stock market correction when many investors (myself included) think about buying into leading companies whose shares have fallen during the stock market sell-off. The theory is that blue-chip stocks offer good value around the bottom of a market correction and that they will provide a healthy return to investors who are patient enough to wait for the stock market to recover.

Another ASX Market Correction and Remaining Calm

September 3rd, 2015 · 13 Comments

Generally when the stock market enters a phase of volatile trading days I tend to sit back and try to remain calm. Market corrections are normal and come along more frequently than we often seem the recall, but when the volatility passes a new market phase will begin. However this new market phase may not be what we are expecting or hoping for, so as investors we need to be ready to adjust to this new reality.

Greece versus The Troika: A Modern Greek Tragedy

February 1st, 2015 · 16 Comments

The recent election in Greece which resulted in the Syriza Party being swept into power has once again put the spotlight on the struggling Eurozone. In isolation, the election of a left wing anti-austerity party in Greece would appear to be no more than a nuisance for markets beyond Europe. But I believe that there is a lot more at stake than just simply a stand-off between the new Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and the ECB, IMF and EU which are collectively known as the Troika creditors.

2014 ASX Stock Market Charts Review

January 7th, 2015 · 4 Comments

Overall the Australian stock market ended 2014 basically where it started which taking into account the slide in commodities prices, was actually a good outcome. However if we scratch under the surface a little and look beyond the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Index (All Ords) we can see why the market held ground in 2014 and perhaps gain an insight to what may happen in 2015.

U.S. Market: The Big, Bold and Ugly

November 28th, 2014 · 1 Comment

Since July of 2014 the big cap stocks have continued to make new highs as investors dump more and more money into the stock market. Overall bullishness on the stock market is now at extremely high levels which typically happen before a major stock market correction and sometimes start a full blown bear market.

S&P/ASX 200 Index – Charts & Trading Ranges

November 25th, 2014 · 1 Comment

A couple weeks ago I looked at a few charts of the S&P/ASX 200 Index and outlined my view that if the financial stocks lost momentum, then this would in turn drag down the ASX 200. Well here we are a few weeks later and the financials are no longer able to offset the drag the mining stocks continue to have on the market with the ASX 200 now struggling to hold above 5300. I suspect this will be the case for the next week or so and perhaps for the rest of the year as well.

A Drifting Economy and a Stock Market Correction

September 23rd, 2014 · 6 Comments

Currently the Australian stock market is in the midst of a correction along with markets in Europe, Asia and the U.S.  How much longer this correction will last nobody can say for sure but for the Australian economy and stock market the signs are not good. Meanwhile it’s becoming clearer that the Chinese economy is struggling to maintain growth of around 7.5% and it may be that the era of stellar GDP growth in China is coming to an end.

The End of the Commodities Boom

July 11th, 2014 · 5 Comments

Unlike a few years ago, mining company CEO’s these days are somewhat more cautious about the outlook for commodities and have shifted from talking about the commodities super-cycle to commenting about the need to reduce operational costs and scale back investment. Yes the commodities super-cycle or boom is over despite many experts saying it would run for decades.

Commodities Prices, the Baltic Dry Index, BHP Billiton & Rio Tinto

June 17th, 2014 · 12 Comments

Recently there has been a lot of focus in the financial media about commodities prices with some commentators for example seemingly surprised how far the iron ore price has fallen. However on this site we have been warning that the days of high commodities prices were coming to an end, so the recent price falls have come as no surprise. In fact the Baltic Dry Index has been warning us what was likely to happen for a long time & also hinting what the stock prices for BHP & RIO were likely to do as well.

ASX Market Indices Charts Review: XJO, XMM, XFJ, XNJ & XGD

March 19th, 2014 · 21 Comments

Over the last few months the Australian stock market has moved without any real conviction and appears to have settled within a range between 5100 and 5450. There has been no clear breakout towards 6000 nor has a major correction taken the market down to what I would describe as a buying range.  At this stage it appears difficult to spot any clear trend by looking at the ASX All Ords Index and/or S&P/ASX 200 so I will go one level lower, and look at some key sector ASX Market Indices.

Short Term ASX Market Outlook & Trading Strategy Update

February 24th, 2014 · 6 Comments

Over the last couple of weeks the Australian stock market has been on the rise with the ASX All Ordinaries & S&P/ASX 200 heading towards 5500. As a result there is now much talk about a bull market and of investors chasing yield which for me, is simply background noise. What I am really interested in is trying to understand if the market is set to keep rising or if it’s time to adopt a defensive strategy for the time being.

2013 ASX Stock Market Charts Review

January 13th, 2014 · 5 Comments

By the end of 2013 the ASX All Ordinaries Index (XAO) & S&P/ASX 200 Index (XJO) both gained around 15% which was a healthy above average annual gain with the long term return for stocks being around 10%. But we need to keep the 2013 gains in perspective and not get carried away by some of the media hype and excitable comments being made by fund managers & analysts etc.

U.S. Market Update: Why Investors Must Be Cautious At These Prices

October 18th, 2013 · No Comments

Last week on October 8th the financial market experienced a broad based sell off. Every sector was down with utilities being the only exception. The individual leadership stocks, which are typically small to mid-cap companies (IWM – Russell 2K) that have a strong history and outlook of earnings growth, were hit hard as well.

Baltic Dry Index, ASX All Ordinaries, Gold & AMEX Charts

September 25th, 2013 · 13 Comments

There is a lot of confusing news & information swirling around regarding the markets these days. Depending on who you listen to either the U.S. economy is recovering or Ben Bernanke is the ultimate asset bubble creator. In China some see the economy in a state of planned transition whereas others (including myself), see it as a command economy fuelled by unsustainable credit growth. Meanwhile in Australia there appears to be some confusion regarding if the mining boom is over or just having a rest?

Review of S&P/ASX Index Charts: XSJ, XFJ, XPJ, XDJ, XMJ & XNJ

July 26th, 2013 · 6 Comments

As the Australian stock market continues to essentially drift sideways perhaps now is a good time to step away from looking at individual stocks and look at which sectors have been moving the wider S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) Index. To do this I am going to focus on six S&P/ASX 200 sector indices namely the S&P/ASX 200 Consumer Staples (XSJ), S&P/ASX 200 Financials (XFJ), S&P/ASX 200 A-REIT (XPJ), S&P/ASX 200 Consumer Discretionary (XDJ), S&P/ASX 200 Materials (XMJ) and S&P/ASX 200 Industrials (XNJ).

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