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Entries Tagged as 'financial crisis'

S&P/ASX 200 – 10 Years of Much Ado About Nothing

September 19th, 2017 · 7 Comments

Ten years ago the Australian stock market was at an all time high with the S&P/ASX 200 Index at around 6,500. Just a few months later however the  the global financial crisis played havoc with the markets and the ASX 200 slumped to around 3000. But even during those darkest days I did not imagine that a decade later the Australian stock market would still be below 6000.  Yes the mainstream finance media might excitedly churn out eye-catching headlines every time there is a minor rally or correction, but the sobering reality is that during most of the last 10 years the Australian stock market has done very little.

The Australian Stock Market is Struggling

October 31st, 2016 · 30 Comments

Although many commentators in the finance media have found reasons to write excitedly about the Australian stock market during the last two months I have been unable to do so. Yes some ASX listed shares have risen sharply in price and profits have been there for some investors, but overall it’s been a very dull and boring few months apart from a correction that I wrote about at the end of August.

Australian Stock Market Outlook & Forecast for 2016

January 29th, 2016 · 68 Comments

Although much of the commentary in the mainstream finance media conveys the impression that the Australian stock market is in the midst of unprecedented correction, the reality is as usual somewhat different.  In fact, considering the rout in commodities prices it’s somewhat surprising that the ASX All Ordinaries and S&P/ASX 200 are still around the 5000 level. This suggests to me that the market is probably near a multi-year low and that despite all the pessimism, it’s unlikely to finish the year lower.

Global Economics, Quantitative Easing and Equities

August 13th, 2015 · 5 Comments

A take on the global economy and equities markets that paints a simple and clear pictures I think. The DJIA index has recorded seven consecutive down days in a row!  These 7 distribution days are a sign that many institutions are taking profits or establishing losses. As we are entering the second half of 2015, financial panic is occurring globally. Currently, this tremendous financial devastation is happening throughout the world.  Stock prices are crashing in China, Europe and soon I feel the United States. Puerto Rico has now defaulted on their debts. Quantitative Easing has been masking the symptom of this endemic disease. The Greek Banks are still frozen and will continue to stay this way; however, the mainstream media is not reporting on this current situation in Greece. There is a limit on weekly withdrawals of 420 Euro per (around US $455).

Shorting the Australian Stock Market, Oil & Soft Commodities

March 17th, 2015 · 16 Comments

So far this year the ASX 200 has been staging a fairly impressive rally having moved from around 5300 points at the start of trading in January to over 5900 in early February. It has since pulled-back a touch but is still up around 10% for the year so there are plenty of reasons to be bullish about the outlook for the market for the rest of the year. However I remain cautious about the outlook for Australian shares and the global economy and maintain my view that a significant correction is not far away.

Greece versus The Troika: A Modern Greek Tragedy

February 1st, 2015 · 16 Comments

The recent election in Greece which resulted in the Syriza Party being swept into power has once again put the spotlight on the struggling Eurozone. In isolation, the election of a left wing anti-austerity party in Greece would appear to be no more than a nuisance for markets beyond Europe. But I believe that there is a lot more at stake than just simply a stand-off between the new Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and the ECB, IMF and EU which are collectively known as the Troika creditors.

For the Australian stock market, moving sideways may be a good outcome.

June 10th, 2013 · 12 Comments

Over the last few years I have written on several occasions about how the Australian stock market has essentially moved sideways and how I expected both the All Ordinaries Index and ASX S&P/ASX 200 to both bounce around between 4800 – 5200.  Even when the market bulls got excited recently as the 5200 level was briefly breached, I maintained my long held view that the market is trading in a recession like zone.

Stock charts review: ASX All Ords, AGK, DJS, WPL, NAB & LEI

June 21st, 2012 · 1 Comment

The last month or so has been quite a ride for Australian stock market investors with the ASX All Ordinaries Index falling from around 4500 points to around 4000 points.  The continuing economic woes in Europe, the economic slowdown in China and the stagnant U.S economy have worked to drag the share market down as have signs that the Australian domestic economy is showing signs of weakness.

Australian economic indicators & the housing market – June 2012

June 4th, 2012 · 113 Comments

Over the last few months it has been quite remarkable to witness how the believers in Ken Henry’s ‘Golden Age’ have started to sound a little downbeat as the economic slowdown in China can no longer be ignored.  Therefore it seems like an appropriate time to try and assess what impact this slowdown is having (and may have) on the Australian economy and review the charts for a few important economic indicators.

Europe’s potion is now its poison with China inheriting the benefits.

February 17th, 2012 · 16 Comments

Today’s lecture is on the sorry state of that dismal science called economics. Hands up, economists who foresaw the Lehman collapse in the United States. OK, I see a few hands out there. Now hands up, those who also foresaw the eurozone crisis? Not so many, it seems.

Where is the Australian Economy heading in 2012?

February 3rd, 2012 · 19 Comments

It wasn’t that long ago when ex-Treasury Head Ken Henry talked about the Australian economy being in a ‘Golden Age’. I guess when you can retire on a lucrative public service pension and then parachute into a highly paid job as an advisor to the Prime Minister the future does probably seem bright. But now in early 2012 as unemployment appears set to rise and the economy is showing signs of weakness, Ken Henry’s ‘Golden Age’ comment might end up in the same category as Tim Flannery’s ‘Dams will no longer fill’ prediction.

Are Australian stocks set to ride another bull market?

January 27th, 2012 · 23 Comments

Recently the markets appear to have settled somewhat and the Australian stock market has steadily been heading higher so far in 2012. Could we be seeing the early signs of another bull market taking hold or are we about to see another sharp correction take the ASX All Ordinaries back down towards 4000 and perhaps lower?

Are Australian stocks set to ride another bull market?

January 27th, 2012 · No Comments

Recently the markets appear to have settled somewhat and the Australian stock market has steadily been heading higher so far in 2012. Could we be seeing the early signs of another bull market taking hold or are we about to see another sharp correction take the ASX All Ordinaries back down towards 4000 and perhaps lower?

Stock market & investment trends for 2012 and beyond.

January 16th, 2012 · 7 Comments

At the start of last year I did not update my Australian stock market trends simply because I thought the market was basically going nowhere. This year however I feel it is worth looking at some interesting sectors again in an attempt to pick out some areas where investors might be able to find bargains and position themselves for the next bull market.

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